The Crimson Tide are riding a seven game win streak after being upset by Florida State in Week 1. On the other side, LSU is fresh off firing unpopular former HC Brian Kelly and has turned the team over to interim HC Frank Wilson. Will Alabama roll over a staggered LSU, or will the Tigers rally to upset the Tide?
Game Details and How to watch LSU at Alabama
- Date: Saturday, November 8th, 2025
- Time: 7:30PM Eastern
- Site: Bryant-Denny Stadium
- City: Tuscaloosa, AL
- TV/Streaming: ABC
Game Odds for LSU at Alabama
The latest odds courtesy of DraftKings:
- Moneyline: LSU Tigers (+295), Alabama Crimson Tide (-375)
- Spread: Alabama -10 (-115)
- Total: 49.5 points
Be sure to check out DraftKings for all the latest game odds & player props for every matchup this week on the college football schedule!
Lets dive into each team and find a few bets for this blockbuster.
LSU Tigers
School: LSU
Head Coach: Frank Wilson (Interim)
2025 Record: 5-3
Offense Ranking: 54th
Defense Ranking: 12th
Strength of Schedule: 4th
Team Overview
LSU has battled through a grueling schedule (4th-toughest SOS) to a 5-3 mark, riding a defense ranks 12th in SP+ while its offense has fallen to 54th nationally. The Tigers’ rushing attack has been stifled by a bottom-three stuff rate (23.0%) and the nation’s worst blown-block percentage (47.5%), while their standard downs success rate (45.2%) ranks a dismal 110th. Defensively, Blake Baker’s group has carried the load with a top-5 pressure rate (40.2%), an elite DB havoc rate (7.1%), and a pass efficiency defense that ranks 21st in ANY/A. Still, the offense’s finishing drive woes (110th in Pts/Scoring Opportunity) and poor OL play continue to limit their ceiling as they head into a brutal final stretch featuring Alabama and Oklahoma.
The LSU Tigers Offense
LSU’s offense has struggled to sustain drives and establish the run, ranking 107th in rushing success rate and 110th in standard downs efficiency, hampered by the worst blown run-block rate (17.5%) in the country. Despite a solid 66.9% completion rate and a respectable 0.15 EPA per dropback (51st), the Tigers are overly reliant on short passing and have the second-lowest air yards per completion (4.4). Their explosive play rate is pedestrian (88th in 20+ yard plays), and they are among the slowest-paced offenses in the nation (124th in adjusted tempo). In scoring position, the unit is woeful—ranking 110th in points per scoring opportunity and 94th in red zone TD rate—highlighting red-zone inefficiency and a lack of physicality up front.
Player to Watch: QB Garrett Nussmeier
Garrett Nussmeier has not lived up to his lofty preseason expectations, starting all 8 games while throwing for 1,806 yards with a 65.9% completion rate and a 12:5 TD-to-INT ratio. His average of 10.3 yards per completion and 7.0 adjusted net yards per attempt (ANY/A) reflect solid intermediate efficiency, though his success rate of 45.2% indicates inconsistency in staying on schedule. While he’s been sacked on just 5.0% of dropbacks, pressure conversion to sacks (17.7%) is relatively high, and his QBR sits at 71.4. As a runner, Nussmeier has added 77 yards and a touchdown on 13 attempts, boasting a 61.5% success rate and picking up a first down on over half of his carries despite a negative YBC/Rush figure, pointing to tough sledding behind the line of scrimmage.
The LSU Tigers Defense
LSU’s defense has clearly been the stronger side of the ball, ranking 12th nationally in SP+ and holding opponents to just 5.03 yards per play (32nd) and 1.62 points per drive (30th). While the defensive front generates solid disruption with a 5th-ranked pressure rate (40.2%) and top-40 rankings in both DL and DB havoc rates, they’ve been undermined by a bottom-tier linebacker unit (132nd in LB havoc rate) and poor red zone execution (102nd red zone TD rate allowed). The pass defense has been pretty stingy, allowing just 5.7 yards per dropback (38th) while ranking 16th in INT rate and top-25 in limiting yards vs. zone. Their bend-don’t-break profile has limited explosive plays (34th in 20+ yard plays allowed), but they’ve given up too many long scoring drives due to inconsistent tackling (82nd) and red zone breakdowns.
Player to Watch: CB Mansoor Delane
Cornerback Mansoor Delane has emerged as LSU’s premier shutdown defender, allowing just 8 completions on 29 targets (27.6%) for 103 yards without surrendering a single touchdown. His 7.5 Defensive QBR ranks among the nation’s elite, supported by an outstanding 27.6% forced incompletion rate and a whopping 8 pass breakups. Delane also contributes in other phases—he’s logged 31 total tackles, a strong 81.6% tackle success rate, and 9 total havoc plays, showing his ability to disrupt without giving ground. Though he has only 5 pass rush reps, he’s turned 4 of them into pressures, further demonstrating his versatility in the Tigers’ secondary.
Alabama Crimson Tide
School: Alabama
Head Coach: Kalen DeBoer
2025 Record: 7-1
Offense Ranking: 15th
Defense Ranking: 14th
Strength of Schedule: 6th
Alabama enters Week 11 with a 7-1 record and control of the SEC, riding a six-game winning streak that includes impressive road victories at Georgia, Missouri, and South Carolina. While the offense ranks 15th in SP+, it is struggling to run the ball efficiently (4.2 YPC, 121st). The passing game is elite, ranking 7th in success rate and 8th in EPA per dropback, with a nation-leading 68.1% completion rate and top-5 mark for wide-open targets (36%). Defensively, Alabama is solid (14th in SP+), with a strong pass defense (23rd in Yds/DB, 21st in EPA/dropback), but they’ve shown vulnerability against the run, ranking outside the top 100 in YPC allowed and yards after contact. Despite being -1.8 in second-order wins, Alabama’s +9 actual turnover margin and elite red-zone efficiency (76.5% TD rate, 8th nationally) have helped them overperform projections and remain firmly in the CFP hunt with upcoming showdowns against LSU and Oklahoma.
The Alabama Crimson Tide Offense
Alabama’s offense under Ryan Grubb ranks 15th in SP+ and thrives through the air, boasting the 7th-best passing success rate (50.3%) and 8th-best EPA per dropback (0.35), despite operating at one of the slowest tempos in the country (29.1 seconds/play, 114th). Quarterback play has been efficient and explosive, with a 68.1% completion rate (17th), a 10.5 ANY/A (23rd), and a nation-leading 36% of throws going to wide-open targets. However, the run game has been a liability, ranking 121st in YPC (4.2), 122nd in yards per successful rush, and generating just 1.29 yards before contact (99th). The Tide remain highly efficient in scoring situations, ranking top-12 in both points per scoring opportunity (5.18) and red zone TD rate (76.5%), helping mask their pedestrian rushing attack.
Player To Watch: QB Ty Simpson
Ty Simpson has efficiently commanded the Alabama offense with 2,184 passing yards and a sparkling 20-to-1 touchdown-to-interception ratio, completing 67.8% of his throws at an explosive 12.3 yards per completion. He’s added mobility to the equation with 169 rushing yards and 2 touchdowns on the ground, including a 48.6% rushing success rate and a team-best 43.1% rate of 10+ yard runs. Despite taking a sack on 16.7% of his pressures, Simpson’s blend of downfield aggression (9.8 adjusted net yards per attempt) and composure has produced an elite QBR of 81.6. His dual-threat ability and excellent decision-making have made him the centerpiece of Alabama’s revitalized offensive attack.
The Alabama Crimson Tide Defense
Alabama’s defense ranks 14th in SP+ and is built on havoc and versatility, generating the 24th-highest overall havoc rate (18.2%) thanks to elite linebacker (6.6%, 12th) and defensive back (7.8%, 19th) disruption. The secondary excels in zone coverage, allowing just 4.7 yards per dropback (4th nationally), though they’ve been vulnerable when forced into man, surrendering 9.0 yards per dropback (130th). The Tide rank just 61st in sack rate and 51st in pressure rate, with a blitz rate that’s among the lowest in the country (14.9%, 130th). They’ve been solid in the red zone and with turnover creation, but are average against the run giving up 5.2 yards per carry (101st) and ranking 108th in stuff rate.
Player To Watch: Edge Yhonzae Pierre
Yhonzae Pierre has been a relentless force off the edge for Alabama, racking up 42 tackles with a team-best 12 havoc plays and 9.5 tackles for loss across eight games. His 4 sacks and 6 pressures-created lead all Crimson Tide defenders, and his 19.4% pressure rate on 134 pass rushes showcases an elite ability to collapse the pocket. Pierre has delivered 24 first pressures—tops on the team—and his average time to first pressure (3.30 seconds) underscores his consistency in generating disruption. With 6 run stops, Pierre’s blend of edge-setting discipline and backfield penetration has made him a cornerstone of the Alabama front seven.
LSU vs. Alabama team stats, betting trends
Alabama is on a 7-game winning streak
Alabama has covered the spread in its last 5 home games against teams with
worse records
The average game score (56.8) in Alabama's last 20 home games is over the
Total (49.5)
Rotoworld Best Bets
Eric Froton’s Best Bet:
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When healthy, LSU WR Aaron Anderson has throttled his 35.5 Receiving Yardage line in all five games, with a low-yardage total of 46 yards vs. an overmatched Southeast Louisiana. However he got banged up against Ole Miss in Week 5, running just nine routes for 12 yards. He rested for the next two weeks before returning to health last game against A&M, catching 5-of-9 passes for 59 yards. With Anderson being the unquestioned WR1 of the Tigers and back to form, i’m taking him to go Over 35.5 Receiving Yards and am sprinkling a little extra on 60+ Receiving Yards (+240).
Our model calculates projections around each moneyline, spread and over/under bet for
every game on the MLB calendar based on data points like past performance, player
matchups, ballpark information and weather forecasts.
Once the model is finished running, we put its projection next to the latest betting lines
for the game to arrive at a relative confidence level for each wager.
Best bets our model is projecting for this week’s game between LSU and Alabama:
Moneyline: NBC Sports Bet is staying away from a play on the Moneyline.
Spread: NBC Sports Bet is leaning towards a play ATS on the LSU Tigers at +10.
Total: NBC Sports Bet is recommending a play on the under on the Game Total
of 50.5.
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