The Carolina Panthers come to the “City by the Bay” for their first prime-time game in two years, matching up with the San Francisco 49ers on Monday Night Football.
The Week 12 finale is a huge game for both sides, with Carolina quietly climbing the NFC standings and San Francisco trying to keep pace in this competitive conference.
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I put the spread and total to the side and give you my favorite NFL picks regarding player props for November 24.
Panthers vs 49ers MNF props
|
Player |
Pick |
|
|---|---|---|
|
George Kittle |
Over 59.5 receiving yards |
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|
Rico Dowdle |
Over 16.5 receiving yards |
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|
Xavier Legette |
longest reception Over 14.5 yards |
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George Kittle Over 59.5 receiving yards
-110 at bet365
George Kittle loves the bright lights of prime time and also loves picking apart zone coverage.
The San Francisco 49ers’ tight end will see plenty of that against a Panthers secondary running the highest rate of zone schemes in the NFL. Kittle is great at find gaps and is Brock Purdy’s favorite option in those spots, rating as the top TE vs. zone at PFF.
Last week, San Francisco faced a zone-heavy Arizona Cardinals defense, and Kittle caught all six balls his way for 67 yards — including a 30-yard TD strike — with his QB1 finally back under center. The week before, Kittle snatched all nine targets for 84 yards against an L.A. Rams defense anchored in zone (fourth-highest rate).
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The Panthers have been roughed up by rival tight ends this year, allowing the fourth-most receiving yards to the position. Things could get worse in Week 12 with starting linebackers — and Carolina’s best coverage LBs — Trevin Wallace and Christian Rozeboom both out for MNF.
Most player projections have Kittle pegged for 60+ yards, with a ceiling closer to 67 on Monday night.
Rico Dowdle Over 16.5 receiving yards
-110 at bet365
Rico Dowdle became a bigger part of the Carolina Panthers’ passing game when Chuba Hubbard got hurt. But even with his backfield mate returning to action, Carolina tries to get the ball in Dowdle’s hands any way it can.
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He’s drawn three or more targets in five of his last seven games, including a season-high seven passes his way in last week’s win over the Atlanta Falcons. Dowdle caught five of those balls and rumbled for 55 yards receiving.
The 49ers have allowed the most targets to rival running backs in the league, which has panned out to the second most receptions and ninth most receiving yards given up to RBs. Last week, San Francisco watched Arizona’s trio of running backs tally 11 receptions for a collective 55 yards receiving.
Week 12 forecasts for Dowdle bounce between 16 and 23 receiving yards. With the current spread now sitting on the other side of a touchdown, game script says the Panthers will have to pass more while playing from behind. That could mean more targets and fewer handoffs for Dowdle on MNF.
Xavier Legette longest reception Over 14.5 yards
-115 at bet365
The Panthers were forced to go pass happy in a comeback win against the Falcons in Week 11, with quarterback Bryce Young attempting 45 throws for 448 yards.
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While Carolina isn’t expected to let it rip like that on Monday, it should opt to throw against a 49ers defense getting torched through the air.
San Francisco sits near the bottom of most pass defense measurements, including worst in the NFL for total air yards allowed. The lack of pass pressure from this 49ers stop unit allows deeper plays to develop, which is why the Niners have the ninth-highest average depth of target against.
Panthers’ receiver Xavier Legette caught four of eight balls for 83 yards last Sunday, with the bulk of those gains coming on a 36-yard over-the-top touchdown strike that sparked Carolina’s comeback in the third quarter.
Legette leads the team in air yards per reception (18.0) and has produced six plays of 20+ yards so far this season. He’s recorded a reception of at least 15 yards in five of his last seven games (5-2 O/U to this prop).
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He goes against a Niners secondary ranked 26th in DVOA when defending WR2s (55.2 yards per game to WR2s) at FTN.
The 49ers will focus their attention on slowing down Carolina WR1 Tetairoa McMillan, leaving the 6-foot-4 Legette to go upstairs for big gains against a San Francisco starting secondary that runs no taller than six feet.
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Panthers vs 49ers MNF prop betting card
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George Kittle Over 59.5 receiving yards (-110)
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Rico Dowdle Over 16.5 receiving yards (-110)
-
Xavier Legette longest reception Over 14.5 yards (-115)
Odds are correct at the time of publishing and are subject to change.
Not intended for use in MA.
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This article originally appeared on Covers.com, read the full article here
