Predicting men’s college basketball conference winners — and their biggest threats

The turning of the calendar used to mark the demarcation between nonconference and conference play. With the expansion of conference size and a corresponding increase in the number of conference games, that has changed in some leagues — most notably the Big Ten and Big East, where the majority of teams have already played four or five games against league opponents.

But, for the most part, the meat and potatoes of the 2025-26 men’s college basketball season has just gotten underway, with contenders looking to separate themselves from pretenders over the next couple of weeks.

Fortunately, teams are testing themselves more and more in nonconference play than in years past, so we have a better idea of which teams are for real and which could stumble against stiffer competition. According to ESPN Research, a record-setting 45 games between ranked opponents took place in the first two months of the season.

As we enter the final two months before Selection Sunday, how would we handicap the conference races in each of the power conferences? Let’s run through the favorites to win each of the five high-major conferences based on ESPN’s BPI projections — and their biggest threats.

Jump to: ACC | Big East | Big Ten | Big 12 | SEC

ACC

Favorite: Duke Blue Devils (91.5%)

Despite being comfortably the best team in the ACC last season, the Blue Devils needed to beat North Carolina in Chapel Hill on the final day of the regular season to clinch the outright title. The bottom half of the league was so poor that the top three teams — Duke, Clemson and Louisville — were able to stockpile wins and compile gaudy records, taking it down to the wire for the conference crown.

Duke isn’t as good as it was last season, but it could win the conference by more games than one because of the parity and improved depth across the ACC. BPI gives the Blue Devils by far the best chance of winning the regular-season title, after Jon Scheyer’s club took a big step by winning at Louisville on Tuesday.

Duke has the most productive player in college basketball in Cameron Boozer, a slew of perimeter shotmakers surrounding him, depth and a blossoming point guard in Caleb Foster. The Blue Devils might not be national title favorites like a year ago, but they’re still the class of the ACC.

North Carolina Tar Heels
Louisville Cardinals
Virginia Cavaliers

Part of the reason Duke’s status as league favorite is so strong is the likely next three teams in the pecking order have already lost ACC games. North Carolina lost by 14 at SMU on Saturday, Louisville has dropped two in a row with Mikel Brown Jr. sidelined, and Virginia fell in three overtimes to Virginia Tech on New Year’s Eve.

Carolina looked like the biggest threat to Duke prior to the SMU loss; Caleb Wilson has been sensational and he and Henri Veesaar form one of the more potent frontcourt duos in the country. Louisville just isn’t the same without Brown, and it’s unclear when he will be back in the fold. At full strength, the Cardinals’ backcourt and elite shooting ability give them a chance against anyone in America.

UConn Huskies (88.1%)

In terms of depth, the Big East is the worst of the five high-major conferences this season, but UConn is a clear-cut national title contender and the heavy favorite to win the regular-season title. If anything, BPI’s 88.1% projection is arguably a low estimate.

The Huskies have just one loss on the season: back in mid-November against Arizona, when Tarris Reed Jr. and Braylon Mullins were both sidelined with injuries. Prior to Wednesday’s overtime win over Providence, UConn had barely been tested in conference play, winning its first four games by an average of 19.0 points. The Huskies are an elite defensive unit, ranking fifth nationally in adjusted defensive efficiency and in the top 10 for both 2-point defense and 3-point defense.

In Mullins, Solo Ball and Alex Karaban, Dan Hurley has three high-level shotmakers, and Reed is a double-double machine and the anchor down low.

Villanova and Seton Hall have been the surprise packages so far this season, with the Wildcats having the edge due to their road win over the Pirates just before Christmas. Over the next couple of weeks, Villanova has road games at Marquette and Providence and will play both St. John’s and UConn — if the Wildcats come out the other side within a game of the Huskies, we can revisit their title bona fides. A home loss to Creighton on Wednesday takes some of the steam out of Kevin Willard’s team, though. And Seton Hall has the aforementioned home loss to Nova plus needed a last-second putback to beat Creighton at home, though the Pirates do get UConn at home next Tuesday to make a statement.

Had Creighton not blown a big second-half lead at Seton Hall, the Bluejays might have loomed as a bigger threat.

Big Ten

Favorite: Michigan Wolverines (67.5%)

Analytically, Michigan is the best team in the country, ranking No. 1 at KenPom, in BPI and at BartTorvik.com. The Wolverines are No. 1 in the NET and lead the country in scoring margin, with Tuesday’s two-point win over Penn State only the second time they have failed to win by at least 25 points since Nov. 14.

Dusty May has the nation’s best defense, a physically dominant group that simply overpowers teams with its size, length and ability to get up and down the floor. Yaxel Lendeborg is an All-American, and Morez Johnson Jr. and Aday Mara have been among the most efficient frontcourt players in the country at both ends of the floor. The Wolverines’ performance at the Players Era Festival in Las Vegas was one of the best three-game stretches we’ve ever seen in the regular season.

With all that said, BPI gives them only a 67.5% chance to win the Big Ten regular-season title — with Purdue their biggest competition.

Purdue Boilermakers

Purdue entered the season ranked No. 1 in preseason polls, with National Player of the Year favorite Braden Smith and All-American Trey Kaufman-Renn forming the best inside-outside combo in the country on paper. A win at Alabama and a 30-point victory over Texas Tech seemed to cement Matt Painter’s team as a national championship favorite, but a stunning 23-point loss to Iowa State on Dec. 6 dropped the Boilermakers down a tier.

They’re still ranked in the top six in all efficiency-based metrics and have the best offense in the country, so don’t count them out. Moreover, they get Michigan, Michigan State and Illinois all in West Lafayette, Indiana.

Nebraska has been the surprise of the Big Ten. Illinois and Michigan State are threats to make deep runs in March, but with each team having already lost to the Cornhuskers, they’re behind the chasing pack.

Big 12

Favorite: Arizona Wildcats (46.2%)

The most loaded conference title race belongs to the Big 12, with four teams — Arizona, Iowa State, Houston and BYU — all ranked in the top 10 nationally, with a combined 58-2 record.

With Arizona ranked No. 1 in the latest AP Top 25 and edging ahead of Iowa State in both KenPom and the BPI, the Wildcats are the narrow favorites. Unsurprisingly, BPI gives them less than a 50% chance to end the season as the regular-season champs, coming in at 46.2% with Iowa State just behind at 43.2%.

Arizona owns the best résumé in the country — No. 1 in ESPN’s strength of record — with wins over UConn, Florida, Alabama, UCLA, Auburn and San Diego State. The first four of those wins came away from home, too. The Wildcats are ranked inside the top 10 at both ends of the floor and have incredible depth and balance up front and in the backcourt.

It’s worth noting that Tommy Lloyd’s team faces Iowa State only once, and that game is in Tucson. The Wildcats play Houston on the road and have BYU both home and away.

Iowa State Cyclones
Houston Cougars
BYU Cougars

Iowa State is one of just six unbeaten teams left in college basketball, and the Cyclones own perhaps the most impressive singular win of the season, going to West Lafayette and beating then-undefeated Purdue by 23 points. They also went 3-0 at the Players Era Festival and held serve against in-state rival Iowa. Joshua Jefferson has been a breakout star and is playing like an All-American, Milan Momcilovic has a case as the best shooter in the country, and Tamin Lipsey has been playing like Tamin Lipsey.

Houston hasn’t quite hit its stride yet, but the Cougars are still 14-1 with a top-10 defense. It’s impossible to count out a Kelvin Sampson-coached team that has one of the best backcourts in the country in star freshman Kingston Flemings and veterans Milos Uzan and Emanuel Sharp. Houston plays each of the other three top contenders once apiece but faces BYU and Iowa State on the road.

BYU has as talented and explosive a trio as there is in college basketball in AJ Dybantsa, Richie Saunders and Robert Wright III. All three can take over a game, and Dybantsa is a viable threat to Cameron Boozer in the National Player of the Year race. Arizona, Houston and Iowa State all have to go to the Marriott Center.

SEC

Favorite: Vanderbilt Commodores (52.9%)

The pecking order is likely to shift the most in the SEC over the next couple of months, but after Vanderbilt’s 96-90 win over Alabama on Wednesday, the Commodores — picked 11th in the preseason conference poll — have established themselves as the favorites moving forward.

Mark Byington’s team has been a metrics darling all season, opening the season ranked in the top 20 at KenPom and now in the top five at both KenPom and BartTorvik.com. Wednesday’s win was Vandy’s first statement win of the season, to go along with victories over Saint Mary’s, SMU and UCF. Tyler Tanner is playing like a legitimate All-American, and Duke Miles has been one of the best transfer portal pickups in the country. The Commodores are a terrific offensive team, ranking in the top 10 in scoring offense and in the top five in adjusted offensive efficiency.

In terms of schedule, it’s worth noting they face Florida only once and it’s in Nashville. They play Tennessee home and away and have to go to Arkansas.

Florida Gators
Arkansas Razorbacks
Alabama Crimson Tide
Tennessee Volunteers

In any given week, the biggest threat to Vanderbilt’s status seemingly changes two or three times. Most metrics, including BPI, point to Florida as the second-best team in the SEC — but the Gators opened SEC play with a loss at Missouri and have been inconsistent against good teams all season. The reigning national champs have an elite frontcourt, but the portal backcourt of Boogie Fland and Xaivian Lee is still a work in progress.

There might not be a guard in college basketball playing better than Darius Acuff Jr. right now, and as a result, Arkansas looks like the real deal. The Razorbacks also opened SEC play with a win over Tennessee and will host Vanderbilt later this month.

Alabama has a terrific offense and one of the most explosive players in the country in Labaron Philon Jr., but the defense has been poor, allowing an average of 93.5 points in losses to Purdue, Gonzaga, Arizona and Vanderbilt.

Tennessee seems like a stretch, despite BPI giving the Vols a 16.3% chance of winning the league. They are 4-4 in their past eight games and still have to go to Florida and Alabama in the next two weeks.