Scotland rugby: Should Gregor Townsend continue or is it time for a change?

In early autumn Gregor Townsend must have thought he had it sussed; an extended contract with Scotland, an international squad that he felt was in the best place it had been in his eight years in charge and a new sideline gig as a consultant with Red Bull. Life was good.

The way he was talking, the coach was clearly expecting a big November. So much for that. What we have now is a team being booed off after losing a 21-point lead against Argentina, an Scottish Rugby Union (SRU) that appears to be running away from questions about the state of things and a game coming up against Tonga that’s utterly irrelevant.

Scotland will win and will probably win well, but it will prove nothing.

They had their chance against New Zealand and Argentina to show that they have improved and they blew it. The only thing they succeeded in doing was rubber-stamping the image that a now rapidly growing number of people have of them as a talented but flaky outfit that’s treading water, coached by a regime that’s done some fine things but that’s been there too long.

Scotland are a good team, when their mood is right. Only good teams could race into a 21-0 lead against the excellent Pumas. Only good teams could score 17 unanswered points against the All Blacks while creating a ton of other chances.

So they do things that only good sides can do, but then they do a host of other things that good sides would never do, like losing a 21-0 lead for a start. Like panicking and giving away soft penalties and easy field position in the closing minutes against New Zealand.

Their split personality is always there, you just don’t know what’s coming first, the Jekyll or the Hyde.

They were blown away early on against the All Blacks and, in turn, they blew away the Pumas early on a week later. They rallied wonderfully against the Kiwis and then imploded. They rallied briefly, with a Finn Russell penalty to make it a 12-point game against Argentina, and then imploded again.

It’s a wearying cycle of failure from a team that’s still stymied by its own weak psychology.

The stat that did the rounds after Sunday, courtesy of the statinator Kevin Millar, focused on the last 25 minutes of Scotland’s past five games against teams ranked in the world’s top 12.

Scotland 3-33 Argentina; Scotland 3-7 New Zealand; Fiji 14-0 Scotland; France 12-0 Scotland; Scotland 0-21 Wales. They lost four of the five. Six points scored, 87 conceded. Two penalties for, 13 tries against.

As a rule, Murrayfield crowds don’t boo. They’ve had more than enough opportunity over the years, more than enough horrible defeats overseen by coaches that weren’t up to it, and yet it’s hard to remember booing in that time.

So, the reaction was unusual, a brief message sent to the SRU that this isn’t good enough anymore. Narrow defeats are worthless now. People want to see progress and they’re not seeing it.

What happened against the Pumas was just another manifestation of the same thing that holds Scotland back. At their worst, there is nowhere near enough nous to stay in a fight.

They have skill, they have pace, they have game-breakers, they have pockets of world class and plenty of power and aggression. What they don’t have enough of is warriors who come alive when things are going awry.

Scotland have an incredible habit of going scoreless for inordinate amounts of time in Test matches. They didn’t score until early in the second half against New Zealand and didn’t score in the last quarter.

In the Six Nations earlier in the year they went more than half an hour without scoring against Italy, went 79 minutes without scoring against Ireland (either side of Finn Russell’s penalty), didn’t score for an hour against England or for the last half an hour against Wales and France.

The season before they had nearly 40 minutes without scoring against Wales, didn’t get anything in the last quarter against France (there was high controversy there, of course, with the Sam Skinner saga), didn’t score for 50 minutes in the loss by Italy and didn’t score for an hour in the loss by Ireland.

Two World Cups have come and gone under Townsend. Scotland scored three points in 80 minutes against the Springboks in 2023 and didn’t score for more than an hour against Ireland, by which time they were long since beaten. In 2019, Scotland scored three points in 80 minutes against Ireland and didn’t score at all for more than 40 minutes against Japan.

These are recurring themes. Townsend has won some big games and has ended some hoodoos. He’s introduced some terrific players into the fold and has overseen many thrillers. The brand of rugby, in full flow, has been joyous. It’s just not enough anymore.

It’s not that Scotland lost to Argentina, it’s the way they lost. The Pumas have done things that Scotland have never done – beaten New Zealand – and have done things that Scotland haven’t done in many years – beaten South Africa. They have a higher world ranking and are a better side than the Scots, but Scotland had them at 21-0.

And they let them go and it was another reminder that this thing is getting no better under Townsend. His players are not mentally tougher. They don’t look any more likely to challenge.

Despite being a very experienced group, they’re still susceptible to losing games like rookies.

This autumn they could and should be three wins from three, but this is another tiresome refrain. The fact that nobody at the SRU will engage with a ‘Whither Townsend’ conversation suggests strongly that they’re going to hope for the best in the Six Nations next year and the Nations Championship next summer and next autumn and the Six Nations in 2027 and then the World Cup.

That’s an awful lot of wishful thinking, an awful lot of kicking a decision down the road. There would be precisely zero expectation of, say, Glasgow coach Franco Smith doing any better as Scotland coach, because club coaching is totally different to international coaching.

Townsend did what Smith has done at Glasgow, remember. He built a hugely entertaining team and won a title. The step-up to the Test arena is brutal. That’s where all the rottweilers are.

But sometimes you just have to roll the dice. Hope for the best. Get a new voice in – or new to some, in Smith’s case. The heavy Glasgow contingent know him well.

Or bring back an old friend, if he was willing. In two seasons with the Blues in Super Rugby, Vern Cotter has won the title (2024) and has been a beaten semi-finalist (2025).

None of this is to denigrate Townsend, whose passion for the job is questioned only by those who don’t know him. There’s been historic wins on his watch, but they’ve all been isolated highs not backed up by sustained growth.

Eight years is an age. There’s been three first ministers and five prime ministers since he took the job. It’s time somebody else had a crack. The SRU might not be talking – and as the boos came last Sunday you wonder if they were listening?