The NFL’s Most Valuable Player award for the 2025 season seemingly comes down to two quarterbacks: Matthew Stafford and Drake Maye, even while Josh Allen, Trevor Lawrence and Christian McCaffrey were also named as finalists.
Both Stafford and Maye led their teams to their respective conference championship games, and Maye now has his Patriots team in Super Bowl LX. But this is a regular-season award, and so on Feb. 5 at 9 p.m. ET (NBC, NFL Network), someone will take home the highly esteemed award regardless of playoff outcome. But who will win it … and who should win it?
We asked Rams reporter Sarah Barshop to make the case for Stafford and then tasked Patriots reporter Mike Reiss with doing the same for Maye. Analytics writer Seth Walder broke down what the stats say about the head-to-head race, and sports betting writer Doug Greenberg revealed how the race has developed at the sportsbooks. Finally, we asked a panel of 11 experts to make their MVP picks. Which QB has the edge?
Jump to:
Stafford’s case | Maye’s case
What the stats say | Betting odds
Our expert picks
Stafford led the NFL in passing yards (4,707), touchdowns (46) and touchdown-interception radio (5.8), giving him 313 more passing yards and 15 more touchdowns than Maye. Stafford’s 2025 season was the eighth time in NFL history that a quarterback threw for at least 4,500 yards and 45 touchdowns, according to ESPN Research. Six of the previous seven quarterbacks to do so won MVP. The only player who didn’t was the Saints’ Drew Brees in 2011, as Green Bay’s Aaron Rodgers also reached those thresholds that season.
AFC Championship Game (86 passing yards, 10-for-21), and yet his overall performance illustrated one of his best cases to be MVP. It showed his knack for making plays with his legs and uplifting an offense that was sputtering. Key plays included a 6-yard touchdown run, a 28-yard scramble on third-and-9 to set up the eventual game-winning 23-yard field goal, and a 7-yard bootleg to close out the game late in the fourth quarter.
«It’s a threat, and to be that mobile and be able to run the way he does, see things and extend plays, is a big, big advantage for us,» veteran tight end Hunter Henry said about Maye. «He is a tremendous athlete.»
What Maye did on Sunday was also what he consistently did in the regular season, which is important to note because the MVP is based on regular-season performance. Maye’s statistics were elite in the regular season. He led the NFL in completion percentage (72%), QBR (77.1) and yards per attempt (8.9). He also finished with 450 rushing yards with four scores on the ground.
«That’s an MVP, man!» wide receiver Stefon Diggs told NFL Network on the field after Sunday’s game. «That’s a guy that stands on 10 toes, battles through adversity. He’s a hell of a player. I’m riding with Drake Maye.» — Reiss
What the stats say
The numbers solidly back Maye for MVP. He led the league in QBR by a healthy margin, with his 77.1 well outpacing the next-best finisher — the Packers’ Jordan Love at 72.8 — and fourth-place Stafford at 71.1. The volume translation of QBR — points above average — tells a similar story, with Maye clearly alone at No. 1 and Stafford in third. Those numbers also neutralize the biggest knock against Maye — the Patriots’ soft schedule — because QBR and its derivatives adjust for quality of opponent.
First look at the Super Bowl matchup
• Barnwell: How the Seahawks, Pats won
• Bracket and schedule | More content
Maye’s accuracy was his best trait in his MVP-worthy season. He recorded a plus-9% completion percentage over expected, per NFL Next Gen Stats — the best single-season number by any quarterback in the metric’s history, dating to 2016.
There are certainly some contextual factors that metrics like QBR do not explicitly account for. However, those factors only bolster the case for Maye.
There is one area where Stafford does have the edge: sack avoidance. Stafford’s 3.7% sack rate ranked third best in the NFL, while Maye’s 7.8% was 21st. Though the offensive line plays a role in that, the quarterback has a huge effect on how often he is sacked.
In comparing Maye and Stafford, which one had the elite pair of receivers? Which one had better pass protection? Which one had the better running game to support them? And with all due respect to offensive coordinator Josh McDaniels, which one had coach Sean McVay designing their offense?
The answer to all four of those questions is Stafford. And despite Stafford having far more support all around him and the most touchdowns in the league, Maye still delivered more efficient production. — Walder
What the sportsbooks say
Since Week 11, either Stafford or Maye has been the favorite for MVP, trading off that status several times. At each of their shortest odds, Stafford was -360 going into Week 17, but Maye was -295 going into Week 18, with Stafford reclaiming favorite status at close with -195 and Maye at +160, according to DraftKings. The MVP market closed with the regular season, so odds were not affected by playoff performances from either QB.
Preseason MVP favorites like the Ravens’ Lamar Jackson, Bengals’ Joe Burrow and Bills’ Josh Allen are all essentially out of the running, but bookmakers still report some liability on the remaining two quarterbacks. BetMGM said it had 23.3% of its MVP handle on Stafford at close, making him the largest liability, while DraftKings sportsbook director Johnny Avello told ESPN that Maye winning would be «a pretty good loss» for the book. — Greenberg
Who should win?
Jeremy Fowler, national NFL reporter: Stafford
Dan Graziano, national NFL reporter: Maye
Liz Loza, fantasy football analyst: Maye
Eric Moody, fantasy football analyst: Maye
Dan Orlovsky, NFL analyst: Stafford
Marcus Spears, NFL analyst: Maye
Ben Solak, NFL analyst: Maye
Mike Tannenbaum, NFL analyst: Maye
Lindsey Thiry, national NFL reporter: Stafford
Seth Walder, analytics writer: Maye
Field Yates, NFL analyst: Maye
Our final tally: Maye 8, Stafford 3
