Sizing up the postseason picture, including every bowl matchup, with one week to go

With one week left in the regular season, the College Football Playoff and bowl pictures are coming into sharper focus — except where they aren’t.

Things are pretty settled at the top of the field, as a relatively upset-free Week 13 left a half-dozen or so teams that are virtual locks for the CFP. But the ACC in particular has numerous moving parts in terms of who will play for the conference championship and likely make the playoff, and league title-game matchups are unsettled pretty much everywhere.

Meanwhile, teams sitting at five wins are sweating things out, with one more chance to become bowl eligible.

As with last season’s inaugural 12-team CFP, the five highest-ranked conference champions, plus the next seven highest-ranked teams, will make the field. Unlike last year, the four highest-ranked teams (not necessarily conference champions) will be awarded first-round byes. The other eight teams will meet in first-round games at the campus sites of seeds Nos. 5 through 8.

From there, the quarterfinals and semifinals will be played in what had been the New Year’s Six bowls, with the national championship game scheduled for Jan. 19 at Miami’s Hard Rock Stadium.

All of that is just the tip of the iceberg, though. Apart from the playoff is the 35-game slate of bowl games, beginning with the Cricket Celebration Bowl on Dec. 13.

We’re here for all of it.

ESPN bowl gurus Kyle Bonagura and Mark Schlabach are projecting every postseason matchup, including their breakdowns of how the playoff will play out, and we’ll be back every week of the season until the actual matchups are set.

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Playoff picks | Quarterfinals
Semis, title game | Bowl season

College Football Playoff

First-round games (at campus sites)

Friday, Dec. 19
8 p.m., ABC, ESPN

Saturday, Dec. 20
Noon, ABC, ESPN
3:30 p.m., TNT
7:30 p.m., TNT

Bonagura: No. 12 North Texas at No. 5 Texas Tech
Schlabach: No. 12 Tulane at No. 5 Texas Tech

Bonagura: No. 11 SMU at No. 6 Ole Miss
Schlabach: No. 11 SMU at No. 6 Oregon

Bonagura: No. 10 Alabama at No. 7 Oregon
Schlabach: No. 10 Alabama at No. 7 Ole Miss

Bonagura: No. 9 Notre Dame at No. 8 Oklahoma
Schlabach: No. 9 Notre Dame at No. 8 Oklahoma

First-round breakdown

Bonagura: The ACC doomsday scenario of its conference champion being left out of the playoff in favor of a team from the American — Tulane or North Texas — and the Sun Belt’s James Madison is still alive, but it feels like a we’ll-believe-it-when-we-see-it thing.

For now, I still don’t think the ACC champ would end up behind two Group of 5 teams, regardless of who it is. That would be a lot easier to feel good about if Miami had a straightforward path to the ACC title game, but that is not the case. Instead, the Hurricanes need to beat Pitt and would need Virginia to lose to Virginia Tech and Cal to beat SMU. It’s possible. It’s not likely. The title game will be SMU and Virginia if they both win next week, which is why SMU gets the ACC nod for the time being; the Ponies have been the better team of late.

The rest of the playoff field is mostly straightforward. Six teams from the SEC and Big Ten are locks (Ohio State, Indiana, Texas A&M, Georgia, Ole Miss, Oregon). So is Texas Tech of the Big 12. Notre Dame (Stanford), Alabama (Auburn) and Oklahoma (LSU) are probably in with wins, but one of those slots would go to BYU if the Cougars beat Texas Tech in the Big 12 title game.

Schlabach: The appetizer to the final weekend of the regular season didn’t produce much drama, as every CFP contender — outside of the ACC at least — found a way to get things done, mostly against inferior competition.

Allstate Playoff Predictor has the answers. Check back every week as the odds are updated following that week’s games.

With two weeks left before the CFP selection committee announces the 12-team bracket on Dec. 7, I’m betting that five teams — Ohio State, Indiana, Texas A&M, Georgia and Texas Tech — have punched their tickets, regardless of what happens in their regular-season finales and respective conference championship games (if they make it there).

Three more teams — Oregon, Ole Miss and Oklahoma — can probably do the same if they win this week. The Ducks erased any doubts about their overall strength with an impressive 42-27 win against USC. They’ll close the regular season at Washington on Saturday.

The Rebels had the weekend off, and they might have needed the time to refocus as speculation continues to heat up about whether coach Lane Kiffin will leave for LSU or Florida. Ole Miss plays at rival Mississippi State in the Egg Bowl on Friday.

The surging Sooners picked up their third straight victory against a ranked opponent, taking down Missouri 17-6 at home. Oklahoma hosts LSU in its regular-season finale Saturday.

Notre Dame and Alabama would probably be in good shape for at-large bids with wins this coming weekend; the Irish play at struggling Stanford on Saturday, while the Crimson Tide travel to Auburn in Saturday’s Iron Bowl. However, they might still be at the mercy of the selection committee, depending on what happens in other leagues.

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CFP quarterfinals

Wednesday, Dec. 31

CFP Quarterfinal at the Goodyear Cotton Bowl Classic
AT&T Stadium (Arlington, Texas)
7:30 p.m., ESPN
Bonagura: No. 7 Oregon vs. No. 2 Indiana
Schlabach: No. 7 Ole Miss vs. No. 2 Indiana

Thursday, Jan. 1

CFP Quarterfinal at the Capital One Orange Bowl
Hard Rock Stadium (Miami Gardens, Florida)
Noon, ESPN
Bonagura: No. 5 Texas Tech vs. No. 4 Georgia
Schlabach: No. 5 Texas Tech vs. No. 4 Georgia

CFP Quarterfinal at the Rose Bowl Game presented by Prudential
Rose Bowl (Pasadena, California)
4 p.m., ESPN
Bonagura: No. 8 Oklahoma vs. No. 1 Ohio State
Schlabach: No. 9 Notre Dame vs. No. 1 Ohio State

CFP Quarterfinal at the Allstate Sugar Bowl
Caesars Superdome (New Orleans)
8 p.m., ESPN
Bonagura: No. 6 Ole Miss vs. No. 3 Texas A&M
Schlabach: No. 6 Oregon vs. No. 3 Texas A&M

Quarterfinals breakdown

Bonagura: No changes for me here from last week, but it should be noted that Oregon is back on track offensively after a couple of uninspiring showings in late October and early November.

Quarterback Dante Moore looks like he is capable of leading a team to the national title, but first the Ducks have a big rivalry game with Washington to navigate this week.

Trinidad Chambliss and Indiana’s Fernando Mendoza.

I have Georgia slipping past Texas Tech in the Orange Bowl, although the Red Raiders’ menacing defensive front would be quite the challenge for the Bulldogs’ much-improved offensive line. Georgia seems to be peaking at the right time, unlike last season, and few coaches know how to get things done in the postseason like Kirby Smart.

A Rose Bowl game between Notre Dame and Ohio State would be a TV ratings bonanza, and Texas A&M-Oregon in New Orleans would be another entertaining game. I have both favorites moving on to the semifinals.

Complete bowl season schedule

Saturday, Dec. 13

Cricket Celebration Bowl
Mercedes-Benz Stadium (Atlanta)
Noon, ABC
Bonagura: Jackson State vs. South Carolina State
Schlabach: Jackson State vs. South Carolina State

LA Bowl
SoFi Stadium (Inglewood, California)
9 p.m., ESPN
Bonagura: Arizona State vs. San Diego State
Schlabach: Washington vs. San Diego State

Tuesday, Dec. 16

IS4S Salute to Veterans Bowl
Cramton Bowl (Montgomery, Alabama)
9 p.m., ESPN
Bonagura: Central Michigan vs. Troy
Schlabach: Jacksonville State vs. Troy

Wednesday, Dec. 17

StaffDNA Cure Bowl
Camping World Stadium (Orlando, Florida)
5 p.m., ESPN
Bonagura: Jacksonville State vs. Marshall
Schlabach: Florida International vs. Old Dominion

68 Ventures Bowl
Hancock Whitney Stadium (Mobile, Alabama)
8:30 p.m., ESPN
Bonagura: Coastal Carolina vs. Louisiana Tech
Schlabach: Coastal Carolina vs. Central Michigan

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Bad Boy Mowers Pinstripe Bowl
Yankee Stadium (Bronx, New York)
Noon, ABC
Bonagura: Pittsburgh vs. Minnesota
Schlabach: Pittsburgh vs. Illinois

Wasabi Fenway Bowl
Fenway Park (Boston)
2:15 p.m., ESPN
Bonagura: NC State vs. Army
Schlabach: Louisville vs. South Florida

Pop-Tarts Bowl
Camping World Stadium (Orlando, Florida)
3:30 p.m., ABC
Bonagura: Miami vs. Houston
Schlabach: Virginia vs. Cincinnati

Snoop Dogg Arizona Bowl
Arizona Stadium (Tucson, Arizona)
4:30 p.m., CW Network
Bonagura: Miami (Ohio) vs. Fresno State
Schlabach: Toledo vs. Fresno State

Isleta New Mexico Bowl
University Stadium (Albuquerque, New Mexico)
5:45 p.m., ESPN
Bonagura: New Mexico vs. Washington State
Schlabach: New Mexico vs. UTSA

TaxSlayer Gator Bowl
EverBank Stadium (Jacksonville, Florida)
7:30 p.m. ABC
Bonagura: Virginia vs. LSU
Schlabach: Miami vs. Texas

Kinder’s Texas Bowl
NRG Stadium (Houston)
9:15 p.m., ESPN
Bonagura: Iowa State vs. Texas
Schlabach: Houston vs. Kentucky

Monday, Dec. 29

JLab Birmingham Bowl
Protective Stadium (Birmingham, Alabama)
2 p.m., ESPN
Bonagura: Florida State vs. Memphis
Schlabach: NC State vs. James Madison

Tuesday, Dec. 30

Radiance Technologies Independence Bowl
Independence Stadium (Shreveport, Louisiana)
2 p.m., ESPN
Bonagura: UTSA vs. Kennesaw State
Schlabach: Baylor vs. Western Kentucky

Music City Bowl
Nissan Stadium (Nashville, Tennessee)
5:30 p.m., ESPN
Bonagura: Nebraska vs. Missouri
Schlabach: Northwestern vs. LSU

Valero Alamo Bowl
Alamodome (San Antonio)
9 p.m., ESPN
Bonagura: BYU vs. USC
Schlabach: BYU vs. USC

Wednesday, Dec. 31

ReliaQuest Bowl
Raymond James Stadium (Tampa, Florida)
Noon, ESPN
Bonagura: Illinois vs. Kentucky
Schlabach: Iowa vs. Tennessee

Tony the Tiger Sun Bowl
Sun Bowl Stadium (El Paso, Texas)
2 p.m., CBS
Bonagura: Wake Forest vs. Arizona
Schlabach: Clemson vs. Arizona

Cheez-It Citrus Bowl
Camping World Stadium (Orlando, Florida)
3 p.m., ABC
Bonagura: Michigan vs. Vanderbilt
Schlabach: Michigan vs. Vanderbilt

SRS Distribution Las Vegas Bowl
Allegiant Stadium (Las Vegas)
3:30 p.m., ESPN
Bonagura: Iowa vs. Utah
Schlabach: Nebraska vs. Utah

Friday, Jan. 2

Lockheed Martin Armed Forces Bowl
Amon G. Carter Stadium (Fort Worth, Texas)
1 p.m., ESPN
Bonagura: Kansas State vs. Navy
Schlabach: TCU vs. Army

AutoZone Liberty Bowl
Simmons Bank Liberty Stadium (Memphis, Tennessee)
4:30 p.m., ESPN
Bonagura: TCU vs. Tulane
Schlabach: Iowa State vs. Memphis

Duke’s Mayo Bowl
Bank of America Stadium (Charlotte, North Carolina)
8 p.m., ESPN
Bonagura: Louisville vs. Tennessee
Schlabach: Duke vs. Missouri

Holiday Bowl
Snapdragon Stadium (San Diego)
8 p.m., Fox
Bonagura: Georgia Tech vs. Washington
Schlabach: Georgia Tech vs. Arizona State