Solak’s Week 10 lessons: What now for Brian Daboll, plus the splitting of the 2024 quarterback class

Week 10 is in the books! Coming out of Sunday, there was so much to talk about already. Upsets in Miami and Carolina, dominance from Seattle and Detroit, photo finishes in Chicago and Houston. The column was already packed to the brim … and then the Giants fired coach Brian Daboll after 61 games at the helm.

Daboll’s Giants are 2-8 for the third consecutive season and end 20-40-1 under his tenure — a win percentage of 32.7%. That simply won’t cut the mustard, and I have no interest in making excuses for it. But the most interesting headline to come out of Daboll’s firing is that general manager Joe Schoen, who was hired with Daboll, is not only keeping his job — he’ll be leading the search for Daboll’s replacement.

More on that dynamic, and the rest of the NFL’s eventful Week 10, below. Every Tuesday, I’ll spin the previous week of NFL action forward, looking at what the biggest storylines mean and what comes next. We’ll seek measured reactions to everyone’s overreactions, celebrate the exciting stuff that nobody is appreciating and highlight what you might have missed Sunday and Monday. There will be film. There will be stats (a whole section of them). And there will be fun.

Jump to a section:
Big Thing: 2024 QB class separation
Why didn’t these moves happen at deadline?
Second Take: Brian Daboll out in New York
Mailbag: Answering questions from … you
Next Ben Stats: Wild Week 10 stats
Monday Night Monotony: Packers at crossroads

The Big Thing: The 2024 quarterback class is what we thought it was

Every week, this column will kick off with one wide look at a key game, player or trend from the previous slate of NFL action. What does it mean for the rest of the season? This week, we’re looking at the 2024 quarterback draft class a season and a half in.

Let’s roll the clock back to the morning of April 25, 2024. Hundreds of thousands are descending on Detroit, where the Lions are hosting the biggest draft in history. The division-rival Bears are about to usher in a new, competitive era of Chicago football (no, really, the Bears meant it this time) by drafting USC superstar Caleb Williams with the first pick. The equally listless Commanders will almost certainly make LSU QB Jayden Daniels the second pick, and after that … it’s probably North Carolina QB Drake Maye at No. 3 to the Patriots.

Behind the cemented top three, there’s still plenty of buzz. Michigan quarterback J.J. McCarthy has an outside shot to unseat Maye as QB3, and if he doesn’t, he’ll still certainly go early in the first round. But to whom, and at which pick?

McCarthy isn’t the only quarterback sneaking into the first-round conversation, either. As Adam Schefter wrote in his draft notebook just days before the draft:

«One NFL general manager said he believes «there is an undercurrent of support for Michael Penix Jr. and Bo Nix,» even though his team doesn’t have a first-round grade on either. This particular general manager said he believes both Penix and Nix are Day 2 picks. Some teams disagree, and there now is speculation Penix could go as high as No. 8 to the Falcons.»

shocked the NFL community when they made Penix QB4 off the board over McCarthy, drafting him with the eighth pick despite the four-year, $180 million dollar contract they’d just given Kirk Cousins. Draft pundits and fans barely had time to get off the mat before the second punch landed: After McCarthy went to the Vikings with the 10th pick, the Broncos drafted Nix — the sixth quarterback of the first round! — with the 12th selection.

Nix became the earliest-drafted QB6 in any NFL draft. The previous record was held by Richie Petitbon, the 21st pick in the 1959 draft. In the common draft era (since 1967), the earliest-drafted QB6 was 27th in 1983 — a gunslinger out of Pitt named Dan Marino.

Nix wasn’t the only quarterback to plant a new flag. McCarthy became the earliest-drafted QB5 in NFL history; Penix, the earliest-drafted QB4. For the second time ever, six quarterbacks went off the board in the first round; for the first time, all six were in the top half of the first round.

It’s important to remember where the consensus was before the chips fell that night. Returning to what the general manager told Schefter: His team didn’t have a first-round grade on either Penix or Nix, and he viewed them as Day 2 picks. Despite the fact that Penix and Nix were largely considered Day 2 picks until draft day, Falcons and Broncos fans had no trouble manufacturing belief in their new passers. National draft coverage certainly fanned those flames, as did team-authored spin cycles. And all the while, Vikings fans could sit in the middle and marvel at the steal of the draft, getting McCarthy at QB5 while barely trading up.

This is what the draft is for, of course: rampant, unchecked belief. The shining promise of a new day.

But outlooks don’t stay sunny forever. The Tuesday after Week 10 a year and a half later? That’s for cold reality and difficult truths.

Penix, Nix and McCarthy are all struggling in their sophomore seasons. For McCarthy, the difficulties are more excusable. In only his fourth career start, McCarthy once again looked comfortable on script but quickly spiraled out of control as the training wheels left the offense. On the season, McCarthy averages 0.18 EPA per dropback on the first two drives of games — drives that we can confidently say are scripted — and minus-0.03 on all other drives. His success rate drops from 47% to 35%.

I have no interest in writing anything concrete about McCarthy, as I wrote last week after the Vikings’ win over the Lions. He simply has not played enough football. The product so far is worrisome — high sack rate, high interception rate and a lengthy time to throw are all indicators of a young passer overwhelmed by NFL speed. Of the six quarterbacks taken in the first round of the 2024 class, none has had a stretch as statistically poor or as visibly concerning as McCarthy’s 2025 season. But we will tread water on McCarthy for now.

We have a larger body of work on Penix. He started his 11th game Sunday morning in Berlin, and it was one of the worst of his career. Penix had a 3.49-second time to throw and completed only 42.9% of his passes — both career-worst marks. Typically, a quarterback holding the ball for that long rips off a few scrambles, but Penix never crossed the line of scrimmage against Indianapolis and remains one of the least-impactful scramblers in a league increasingly embracing the quarterback run.

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It’s OK to not be a scrambler … but not with the 32.0% inaccurate throw rate Penix had against the Colts. That’s too many plays that are dead in the water. Among 43 quarterbacks with 200 dropbacks since the start of last season, Penix is 41st in completion percentage and 42nd in off-target rate. The ball simply isn’t catchable often enough.

Of course, Penix is attempting more difficult passes than many quarterbacks. In the same time frame, he’s second in air yards per attempt (8.9). But deep passes don’t always imply tight windows. In his career, Penix is throwing into tight windows on 14.2% of his pass attempts, and his targets have an average separation of 3.3 yards. The league-average marks are 14.8% and 3.5 yards, respectively.

This towering off-target rate, coupled with the downfield aggression, creates the huge swings in Penix’s drive-to-drive performance. Penix either connects on a couple of big passes and gets into scoring position fast, or misses on one and gets stuck behind the sticks on third-and-long. Those clear passing downs let defensive coordinators get into designer looks that force him to process after the snap. On eight third- and fourth-down dropbacks against the Colts, Penix had one completion for minus-4 yards.

Much of the offense has disintegrated around Penix. The running game, which was supposed to be the engine of this team, has sputtered in recent weeks — though it woke up against the Colts. Injuries to the Falcons’ offensive line have muddied Penix’s pockets, and Atlanta’s receiver depth has been tested. The offensive design, which has received much heat for its overreliance on shotgun and pistol alignments and lack of play-action passing, continues to confound many — myself included.

But Penix simply hasn’t looked like an eighth overall pick. Yes, he can throw the ball with impressive velocity — arm strength is his cardinal trait, and a player with his velocity and release speed will have a place in the NFL for a while. But he doesn’t move much and is one of the league’s worst quarterbacks when pressured. He doesn’t make fast decisions in the pocket, either, which makes him particularly shaky against the blitz — 27th among 33 quarterbacks this season in dropback success rate when blitzed. And to this point, he doesn’t have NFL-caliber accuracy.

Penix’s runway still has some room on it; again, we’ve seen only 11 career starts, and there are serious complaints with the offense around him that justify some patience. With Nix, we’ve seen 28 starts — a much larger sample.

The Broncos are in the thick of a seven-game winning streak with an enormous contest against the Chiefs upcoming, and Nix gets some credit for that run. He was nails late against the Eagles and Giants in come-from-behind victories, and while his play against the Texans, Jets and Raiders was far from inspiring, his willingness to check down into positive gains and ability to avoid sacks keeps the Broncos’ offense on schedule. Nix is taking a sack on only 2.7% of his dropbacks this season — lowest among all passers — and the ball is coming out fast. Nix is averaging 2.8 seconds to throw, down from last season’s 3.0 seconds and the sixth-quickest number this season.

But it seems like Nix is playing much worse football than he was last season despite the fact that his numbers are roughly comparable. Yards per dropback has fallen only from 6.16 to 5.94; success rate has fallen only from 44.1% to 42.9%. EPA per dropback is up! It was 0.10 as a rookie, and it’s 0.11 this season.

But Nix’s numbers last season were also fooling us a bit. As I wrote after Week 11 in 2024, Nix’s stats were highly inflated by his performance in blowouts — snaps in which the Broncos either had a win probability above 95% or below 5%. In an effort to build Nix’s confidence after a shaky September, Sean Payton was giving his young quarterback reps in nearly meaningless game states.

Of course, we know we can’t call these snaps totally meaningless. Nix and the Broncos were well below 5% win probability for stretches against the Giants, and thanks to his efforts, they ended up winning.

But once again, we see a large difference in Nix’s production in a neutral game state as opposed to a lopsided one. Nix has 56 dropbacks in blowout states this season. Some came against the Giants, but plenty more came from wins against Dallas, Cincinnati and Tennessee. Nix has a dropback success rate of 48.8% and a first-down/touchdown rate of 41.5% on those dropbacks. In neutral states, those numbers drop to 43.1% and 29%, respectively.

This split is significant because it is intuitive. Nix walked into the league as a risk-averse quarterback who preferred the throwaway to the contested pass and the tuck-and-run to the extend-and-attack. He has become only more cautious over time, as the Broncos’ coaching staff has clearly stressed to him that they can win games when he avoids mistakes. On early downs this season, Nix is bottom five in pretty much every metric we have, including yards per attempt, yards per dropback, explosive pass rate, completion percentage, dropback success rate, first down/touchdown rate and time to throw.

His numbers leap on late downs. There, he is seventh in explosive pass rate and 13th in EPA per dropback. His air yards per attempt goes from 23rd (6.8) to fourth (9.9). The shackles on his play are loosened by the demands of a late down, and suddenly, the offense can find more explosive plays.

Should Nix and the Broncos embrace a more ambitious approach on early downs? Not so fast, my friend. Nix is still 28th in off-target rate and 29th in completion percentage over expectation on those late-down throws, per Next Gen Stats. Just like last season, Nix’s accuracy tails off tremendously when he’s forced to put extra velocity on the football. On throws of 10 or more air yards, his off-target rate is dead last among all quarterbacks over the past two seasons combined. For all his risk aversion, Nix has 17 interceptions on throws 10-plus yards downfield, tied with Geno Smith for the most in the NFL. That’s the issue with significant accuracy drain in the deeper areas of the field — the defense has time to adjust to the bad football.

There are, of course, flashes of excellence that belie Nix’s downfield play — everyone remembers the deep ball to Marvin Mims Jr. against the Bengals last season, or the opening touchdown against the Bills in the wild-card round. But a few good throws do not make a downfield passer. Broncos fans might bemoan the offensive system, but it is the only one in which a quarterback like Nix is viable.

In moments of abandon, when all hope is seemingly lost for either team — the Broncos or their opponents — Nix shines. He either takes what a mega-cautious defense gives him as it protects its lead, or he dupes a mega-aggressive defense looking to stop the run at all costs. But in moments of need on long and late downs or pushing the ball downfield, Nix dulls.

While Penix appears inconsistent on a snap-to-snap basis, Nix is more inconsistent on a game-to-game basis. With Payton at the helm, Nix is more than capable of managing a well-coached offense against poor defenses. There is much to be said for a young passer who knows how to avoid big negatives and keep the offense on schedule; it’s a lesson that first-rounders such as Anthony Richardson Sr. and Justin Fields would have done well to learn as early in their careers.

But the issue with competent game management is that it should not cost the 12th pick in the NFL draft. And from the looks of it, Penix’s erratic play and need for serious development, while not totally hopeless, should not have cost the eighth pick. We can’t even begin to consider the ramifications of McCarthy’s play and the cost of the 10th pick.

Contrast this second tier of sophomore quarterbacks with the top tier: Williams, Daniels and Maye. Daniels was enduring a rough second season before his elbow injury, but his 2024 Offensive Rookie of the Year campaign speaks for itself. Maye, who had a quietly excellent rookie season, now leads the field in MVP odds. Williams, who has been far rockier than expected for the prospect billing he received, still looks remarkably ahead of Nix, Penix and McCarthy in terms of physical talent and acclimation to NFL speed. He, like Maye and Daniels, can do the things we expect of early first-round picks.

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It seemed then and still seems in hindsight that the gravity of the top tier yanked the second tier much further up the draft board than it belonged. The sheer weight of talent shared by Williams, Daniels and Maye anchored quarterback-needy teams in the 2024 draft that so desperately wanted a piece of the action but couldn’t trade their way into range.

In their frustration, they coped by conjuring value in QB4, QB5 and QB6 that never existed previously. How lovely a treat, that an elite developmental quarterback fell into Atlanta’s lap to pair with their aging veteran — a Packers-esque investment in the now and the future. How wonderful that the next Drew Brees entered the draft in the exact year that Payton’s Broncos needed a QB on a rookie contract to heal their cap sheets and spark their roster — not just convenient, but magical. Of course, wishing doesn’t make it so.

There is tremendous value in rookie-contract quarterbacks and an additional cherry on top when you secure the fifth-year option on that rookie deal. But that’s a rosy, April idea — the promises of draft and spring time.

In the chill of Week 10, the predestination of talent quashes those fictions. We are brutally reminded that some quarterbacks have enough talent to warrant early-first-round investment, to grow into something spectacular, to change the franchise. Others have less talent. Not no talent, not insufficient talent. But less. It will be harder for them to win despite adverse circumstances or tip the scales against elite opponents. Drafting them 10, 20, even as many as 50 picks earlier than their talent demands doesn’t alter the reality of their talent at all.

Wait, why didn’t …?

This is where we go through moves that didn’t happen during last week’s NFL trade deadline to find some rhyme or reason for that inactivity.

Wait, why didn’t … the Bills make a big trade?

The pregame buzz before the 1 p.m. slate centered on Bills general manager Brandon Beane’s trades that almost happened. There was talk that Beane worked on deals with two division rivals: the Dolphins for wide receiver Jaylen Waddle (see below) and the Jets for defensive tackle Quinnen Williams.

Executing trades with division rivals is tough under the best of circumstances. I buy Beane’s story that he really wanted to make a deal, but the interdivisional tax was too steep.

But it is brutal not to make a move by the deadline, tell everyone how hard you tried, then immediately get embarrassed by one of those selling teams (Dolphins) and one of those potential players (Waddle). It feels like all of the goodwill the Bills generated with the win over the Chiefs last Sunday has evaporated.

I’m still holding Bills stock. I think this passing game can look much better with the return of Joshua Palmer, and the running game is still a serious threat. But Beane has been the general manager in Buffalo since 2017, and the Bills need a Super Bowl appearance to show for his efforts. Otherwise, why keep the 2026 first-round pick … if someone else might use it?

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Wait, why didn’t …. the Dolphins trade more stars?

Well, an emphatic upset win over the Bills is as good a reason as any. Miami got solid value for rising free agent edge rusher Jaelan Phillips but otherwise stood pat. The Dolphins clearly fielded offers on Waddle, whom they just extended last offseason. But without receiving adequate value in return, they kept him instead, and he led the team Sunday with 84 receiving yards and a score. Surely, they got offers for running back De’Von Achane as well, and he delivered another 225 yards from scrimmage and two scores.

At 3-7, the Dolphins are out of contention. They need a new general manager and a new plan at quarterback. One win doesn’t erase the harsh realities. But the victory over the Bills was a reminder that explosive young playmakers are still the cream of the team-building crop, and Miami has two worth keeping.

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Wait, why didn’t … the Patriots add more offensive help?

I wanted the Patriots to find more playmaking at the trade deadline. In particular, I thought they should have made a competitive trade offer for Saint-turned-Seahawk receiver Rashid Shaheed to add speed to the offense.

Then, the Patriots scored a 72-yard touchdown, a 55-yard touchdown and a 69-yard touchdown Sunday — all by rookie playmakers. The 72-yarder was a huge catch-and-run for third-round receiver Kyle Williams, who was seeing action only because of Kayshon Boutte’s absence. The remaining two long TDs were by running back TreVeyon Henderson, playing an expanded role because Rhamondre Stevenson is injured (toe). The top speeds reached on the three touchdowns, according to NFL Next Gen Stats tracking, were 21.8 mph (Williams), 22 mph and 21.4 mph. Those are the three fastest speeds for Patriots offensive ball carriers in the NGS era (since 2016).

So, I’ll shut up about New England’s need for more explosive playmaking. My bad.

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Wait, why didn’t … the Jets trade Breece Hall?

Because they needed him to produce 77.7% of the team’s receiving yards in a 27-20 victory over the Browns that might cost the Jets the first pick in the 2026 draft!

Seriously. Hall had 42 of the Jets’ 54 total receiving yards — all on one catch-and-run screen that was the difference in the game. Per ESPN Research and Elias Sports, that receiving yardage share is the largest for a running back since 1983, when Bears RB Walter Payton had 95 of the team’s 106 receiving yards, thanks in large part to a 74-yard trick-play touchdown thrown by fellow back Matt Suhey. Pretty sweet.

Surely, this offensive performance is exactly what the Jets envisioned for their first game back after the bye. But Hall clearly wanted a trade and didn’t get it. A lot of players would check out after such a disappointment, despite the effect it might have on their earning potential in the upcoming offseason. Kudos to Hall.

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Wait, why didn’t … the Bears add more on defense?

Don’t let 20 points from the Giants fool you. The Bears had another rough one on defense. The Giants produced 431 yards, and their 20 points were the fewest for any team with at least 400 yards of offense this season. Three Giants drives ended on downs, including one at the Bears’ 19-yard line. Jaxson Dart led a 59-yard drive that ended with a lost fumble on the Bears’ 21, and Russell Wilson — who came in after Dart was concussed — led a field goal drive that made it down to the Bears’ 1.

Chicago deserves credit for strong situational play. Stopping three of four fourth downs, forcing a fumble in the red zone and manufacturing a goal-line stand are signs of a defense rising to key moments. But the underlying concern remains, and it has for some time. The Bears are 26th in pressure rate and executed only a late-round pick swap for defensive end Joe Tryon-Shoyinka, who played 10 snaps Sunday, at the deadline. Playing the Giants is always good for sack production, and Chicago has the Vikings and J.J. McCarthy next week. But if the 6-3 Bears are to be taken seriously as an NFC contender, they need more from their pass rush.

The hope is that relief comes from the inside. Second-year edge rusher Austin Booker has seven pressures over the past two games — his first two of the season, as he was on injured reserve to start the season. Montez Sweat, who hasn’t been the dominant pass rusher the Bears were seeking when they acquired him two trade deadlines ago, has snagged 2.5 sacks in the same time frame. The pairing of Booker as an upfield disruptor and Sweat as a clean-up artist could work — especially if defensive tackle Gervon Dexter Sr. (seven pressures) continues contributing at the same rate.

Second Take: Hire Brian Daboll as an offensive coordinator

ESPN’s «First Take» is known for, well, providing the first take on things — the instant reactions. Second Take is not a place for instant reactions but rather where I’ll let the dust settle before taking perhaps a bit of a contrarian view.

In the 2023 free agent period, safety Julian Love wanted to get paid. A rotational player with the Giants who didn’t become a permanent starter until 2022, Love had interest in returning to New York after its surprise appearance in the 2022 NFC divisional round. «I think I had a huge impact on this team this year, not just with [my] play but with who I am as a person,» he said. «I was the level-headed person this locker room needed at times. … I love this place. The staff has been the best. That’s the stuff you want to come back to.»

New Giants general manager Joe Schoen appeared open to getting a deal done with Love. «Julian knows how we feel about him. If we can get something done, it would be good.»

But the Giants moved on from Love, who signed a two-year, $12 million deal with the Seahawks. He was a Pro Bowler in 2023, improved even more in 2024 and is currently a key cog in Mike Macdonald’s league-leading Seahawks defense.

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There’s no reason to pillory then-Giants coach Brian Daboll and Schoen for the Love situation. It was their first offseason, they tried to negotiate with Love in the regular season and had the depth to backfill his role. The money they saved on Love, they spent on QB Daniel Jones (four years, $160 million), RB Saquon Barkley (franchise tag) and WR Darius Slayton (two years, $12 million, just like Love).

But Love was the first in what has become a recognizable pattern over the past 3½ years with the Giants. The players who left the organization steadily improved at their new landing spots. At the 2023 trade deadline, the Giants sent Leonard Williams to the Seahawks for second- and fifth-round selections. Williams was a Pro Bowler last season and should have made an All-Pro list; like Love, he’s a lynchpin of that elite Seahawks defense.

In 2024 free agency, Barkley and safety Xavier McKinney left. Barkley immediately had the best season of his career in Philadelphia and won Offensive Player of the Year. McKinney immediately had the best season of his career in Green Bay and made his first All-Pro team.

During the 2024 season, Jones was benched and then released. He cleared waivers, signed with the Vikings, spent half a season on the bench in Minnesota, then joined the Colts on a one-year deal. He is currently having the best season of his career.

This is as much a failure of the personnel office as it is of Daboll and the coaching staff. A big part of any general manager’s job is seeing players’ talent through the fog of their schematic responsibilities, poor teammates or miscast roles. The fact that so many good players escaped New York to prosper elsewhere proves that Schoen failed in that regard.

But it’s also proof that Daboll failed. Barkley, McKinney and Williams showed obvious talent then, and it’s painfully more obvious now. Even lower on the roster, there were many flashes of potential that were never nurtured. Look at Jones, Kadarius Toney, Slayton, Wan’Dale Robinson, Joshua Ezeudu, Kayvon Thibodeaux, Azeez Ojulari and Deonte Banks. Who are the players who developed in New York and saw their talents blossom under Daboll and his staff? I can think of a few, such as Dane Belton, Andrew Thomas and Theo Johnson. But that’s not enough.

Extricating Schoen’s mistakes from Daboll’s miscues is a serious challenge. Through this roster turnover and with limited players across the board, Daboll did a lot well for the Giants’ offense. New York’s offensive line had pass block win rates of 52.6%, 53.4% and 56.2% in Daboll’s first three seasons — all bottom-10 numbers for their respective seasons. That’s a tough road to hoe for any offensive play designer.

Daboll’s commitment to RPOs and quick passes extracted a lot of value out of imperfect receivers like Robinson, Richie James and Isaiah Hodgins. Over his tenure, the Giants were 28th in points per drive and 27th in EPA per play — ugly numbers. But he was able to win games with Tommy DeVito under center. He could have done better with the tools he was given, but many current offensive coaches would have done plenty worse, too.

Still, the proof of the pudding is in the eating. Daboll’s teams regularly crumbled in high-leverage moments. Daboll was generally an acceptable coach in making quality fourth-down choices — 11.5 EPA added before the result of the play was known — but his team couldn’t execute. Only Kellen Moore’s, Jonathan Gannon’s and Bill Belichick’s teams have lost more EPA on fourth-down plays since 2022. On special teams, he was 47th out of 58 coaches in total EPA. Daboll’s Giants were 19-4-1 in games in which they had a win probability over 90% at any point. That winning percentage of 81.3% is unsurprisingly well below the league average (92.2%).

The record is as indefensible as the disastrous nature of the losses. Up 10 on the Bears with 6:20 remaining; up three on the Cowboys with 25 seconds remaining; up 18 on the Broncos with 10:14 remaining. All losses. There were only three games this season in which a team held a 10-plus-point lead with under four minutes remaining and lost, and the Giants accounted for two of those. Can’t sell that. A change was needed.

But I held some Jones stock after he was benched in the middle of last season, and I’m holding some Daboll stock as New York casts him out now. There was enough good on the Giants’ offensive film for teams to hire Daboll as an offensive coordinator next offseason. I’m not sold Daboll has the situational chops for a head-coaching gig, but we’ve seen too many people perform better once they escape New York for me to discount the possibility of a strong bounce-back as an offensive coordinator.

From y’all

The best part of writing this column is hearing from all of you. Hit me on X (@BenjaminSolak) or by email (benjamin.solak@espn.com) anytime — but especially on Monday each week — to ask a question and potentially get it answered here.

From Charlie: As a Panthers fan, the Bryce Young experience has been a particularly cruel episode of a lost decade. The Panthers traded away every decent asset (Brian Burns, CMC, DJ Moore, and draft capital) to go all in on a QB at number 1 overall. Unfortunately, he clearly wasn’t worth it. Do we finally give up on Young this offseason? Could the Panthers and Canales pick up a QB that some team is giving up on as a reclamation project? How done are the Jags with Trevor?

Man. I feel your pain, Charlie. (Not really. I do not root for the Panthers.)

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Carolina will almost certainly pursue a quarterback alternative this offseason. It probably won’t fully punt on Young, as he’s still on a cheap contract and not prohibitively bad at the position, as shown by the Panthers’ 5-5 record this season. (Dave Canales really is doing a wonderful coaching job, if you ask me.)

I don’t think you’ll get Trevor Lawrence out of Jacksonville, but the idea of a veteran retread for Carolina is extremely attractive to me. As was well covered when he was hired, Canales was part of Geno Smith’s rehabilitation in Seattle and Baker Mayfield’s in Tampa Bay. This offense is plug-and-play ready for a functional veteran, with a strong offensive line and a budding elite receiver in Tetairoa McMillan.

Kyler Murray is the obvious name for this upcoming offseason, as his time in Arizona seems all but over. You know who loves to funnel targets to a star No. 1 receiver and has the sort of pocket fearlessness that Smith and Mayfield both displayed? Mac Jones.

Is he under contract with the 49ers in 2026? Yes. But we’ll cross that bridge when we get there. He would be a good fit.

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From Jim: I was watching the SNF game between the Chargers and the Steelers, and a graphic popped up showing how TJ Watt is chipped at a drastically higher rate than the other top edge rushers (Garrett, Hutch, etc.). I’m curious if there’s something in the film that explains why Watt faces chip help more frequently than other guys in the same echelon of pass rusher.

It’s not just in the film. It’s in the numbers! Check out how often Watt aligns on one side of the formation relative to other top rushers.

Tyler Shough against the Panthers! It was easily his best performance of the season, and it’s hard to fault him for a poor second half against the Buccaneers (Spencer Rattler got the start) and a shaky game against the Rams (the league’s second-best defense by EPA per drive). So far, I’m impressed.

On Sunday, Shough flashed the arm talent that carried him through his long college career. He made a few on-the-move throws against his body or with pressure at his feet that he typically wasn’t credited for in the pre-draft process. He still prefers to sit in the pocket and get everything out on a timely three-step-and-hitch rhythm, which is fine. He’ll need to see the field faster and make more aggressive decisions to win that way moving forward — he left a lot of intermediate throws on the field in favor of safer checkdowns — but when he uncorks it, he throws a very pretty ball. That touchdown pass up the sideline to Chris Olave was exciting.

Shough hasn’t been clearly better than Rattler was, but he definitely hasn’t been worse. If every game from here on out looks like that Panthers game, he’ll have a firm hold on the Saints’ QB1 job for next season at least.

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From Patrick: What is Klint Kubiak doing that’s making the Seahawks’ offense so explosive?

Excellent question. In one sentence: He’s getting opposing defenses to put base personnel on the field.

In the modern NFL, defenses want to live in nickel personnel: five defensive backs, two linebackers, four down linemen. With so much team speed pooled into receiver and tight end positions, so many pass-catching backs and RPOs that make defenses wrong after the snap … there’s just no way to field three linebackers and not give up space in the passing game.

We can see this in leaguewide data. Here is passing performance on first and second down against base and nickel personnel since 2020.

Sam Darnold.

The obvious way to get base personnel on the field is with your own personnel. The Seahawks run fewer three-receiver sets than every team save the Steelers. As many have noted, the Seahawks aren’t very good at running the football from these sets (or at all). But when the defense has to choose which 11 players to put in the huddle, it’s hard for it to ignore the extra tight end and the fullback and leave the slot corner on the field. The Seahawks will see that, get to the line and get to a running play or a quick screen. Even a bad running offense can find success against light personnel.

Why don’t other teams do this? Well, other teams have more mouths to feed in the passing game. Jaxon Smith-Njigba has shown an Atlassian capacity for carrying the passing game, and none of Cooper Kupp, A.J. Barner or Tory Horton have a reasonable demand for more targets.

There are other agents at play here. Darnold isn’t just throwing against base personnel but also against stacked boxes — this is where condensed formations and getting under center helps. Of Darnold’s dropbacks, 14.9% have come against stacked boxes, second only to 2022 Brock Purdy over the past five seasons.

Stacked boxes create more space on the outside, which in turn creates bigger opportunities for yards after the catch. Similarly, stacked boxes make rollouts more dangerous, as Darnold is running into space. Darnold is averaging 0.51 EPA per dropback on rollouts. On rollouts to his left — tricky plays that surprise the defense by rolling to the quarterback’s offhanded side — he’s at 0.99 EPA per dropback.

None of this is revolutionary — both Kyle Shanahan and Kevin Stefanski, mentors of Kubiak, have done similar things for their quarterbacks over the years. But it works. Toss in the truly elite play of Smith-Njigba, the wicked accuracy of a confident Darnold and a spittin’ defense that gives the Seahawks leads and protects Darnold from clear dropback situations, and you’ve got quite the offensive philosophy.

Next Ben Stats

NFL Next Gen Stats are unique and insightful nuggets of data that are gleaned from tracking chips and massive databases. Next Ben Stats are usually numbers I made up. Both are below.

2.42: The number of points per drive the league is producing on the first two drives of games. It’s the best number in history.

I’m using the first two drives as a proxy for «scripted plays.» I don’t like using the first 15 plays, even though that’s anecdotally what is scripted. A coach can’t actually script plays in order — he doesn’t know if his first third down will be from 3 or 13 yards out. The first two drives generally capture what we expect to be prepared and practiced through the week.

I initially dove into these numbers to see how McCarthy was performing on and off script, but I grew more curious as I looked. Doesn’t it seem like teams are sprinting out to opening-drive touchdowns more than ever before? Well, they are. Offenses are scoring touchdowns on 26.5% of their first two drives this season, which is another historic number.

Field position has an effect here. Drives are starting at the 29.1-yard line on average, which is 4 yards above the average spot in the mid-2010s. In the 2000s, drives had a similar starting field position (or better), but offenses were a little worse. Take 2001, when drives started at the 30 on average — but with only 4.9 yards per play to 2025’s 5.5, the 2001 offenses quickly lost ground.

A second factor isn’t offensive efficiency — 5.5 yards per play is pretty consistently average over the past 15 seasons — but fourth-down willingness. There have been 76 fourth-down attempts on 592 scripted drives this season, or 0.13 attempts per drive. That number has been climbing in recent seasons, but it reached a new peak this year. Teams are also converting 71.1% of these fourth downs so far in 2025 — the best rate since 2009.

Last, but certainly not least: There’s some K-ball juice here. Just as touchdown rates are at an all-time high, so are field goal rates — not what you’d expect. Typically, if touchdown rates jump, field goal rates suffer, as field goals are the product of touchdown-less trips across the 50. But as the range of modern kickers has expanded, those extra few yards of field position really start to matter. Now field goal opportunities bite into what were once punt positions.

I’ll leave you with a graph showing the points per drive difference between scripted and unscripted drives over the past 25 seasons. While it has been a great year for offense overall, I do think there’s something here in the offensive overachievement on the script.

took over plays this week. As I wrote last week, the Lions’ seasonlong offensive numbers looked fine, but they had a surprising number of dud outings. Their back-to-back outings against the Buccaneers and Vikings were the third- and sixth-worst offensive outings (by success rate) of the entire Campbell era.

I think 31 of 32 coaches would have stayed the course, espoused some (not inaccurate) bromides about growing chemistry and offensive line continuity, and kept it chugging. Not Campbell. He picked John Morton as offensive coordinator over several attractive internal promotions last offseason, and instead of doubling down on that investment, he took the mic against the Commanders. That, to me, is as gutsy as any fourth-down decision.

Now, offensive results against the Commanders should be consumed with grains of salt so large they generate a gravitational field. I’m not ready to say Campbell fixed anything or everything. But the fingerprints of sharp — dare I say nerdy — playcalling were all over the Lions’ film on Sunday. They snapped the ball with players in motion. They ran play-action passes at the highest rate of the season. They had a positive pass rate over expectation for the first time all season, too. Anyone thinking «meathead Campbell will establish the run» hasn’t been listening. This is one of the cleverest coaches in the league, full stop.

I think Campbell will look for a new offensive coordinator by next season, so we might enjoy only another 8-10 weeks of Campbell calling plays. But if he remains this effective as a playcaller, on top of all he has done well as a CEO, it’s tough to rank any head coach in football above him.

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8: That’s how many false starts the Vikings had against the Ravens on Sunday. That’s the most by a home team since the 2009 season.

I’ve watched all eight meticulously. I think fault is pretty clearly shared. The team is obviously not yet comfortable with McCarthy’s cadence. McCarthy elicited a false start when he went to kill a play and had another thrown on himself for simulating a shotgun snap too aggressively. But the Vikings’ line really struggled to hold its water against a Ravens front that was doing a great job anticipating the snap count and changing their pictures right as the motion man sprinted across the formation.

There’s a lot to clean up procedurally in Minnesota! This is not an offense that can endure getting behind the sticks in the slightest.

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225-1: That’s the record for NFL teams that have held their opponent under 175 total yards and not turned the ball over. The one loss is the Browns, who lost to the Jets on Sunday.

Here’s another fun stat for you: The Jets are the first team with two return touchdowns in the first quarter of a game since the 2007 season, when Chargers running back Darren Sproles scored his first (and second) career touchdowns against the Colts on «Sunday Night Football.»

It’s unlikely either Kene Nwangwu (who returned the kickoff) or Isaiah Williams (who returned the punt) has a Sproles-like career. But for a team like the Jets, who need to manufacture short fields and scoring drives however possible, the special teams performance is notable. Recall that the Jets nearly beat the Buccaneers in Week 3 on a blocked field goal returned for a touchdown. Nwangwu, who missed games this season because of a concussion and a hamstring injury, has two touchdowns in nine kickoff returns with the Jets — one last season, then this one Sunday.

A lot of teams show signs of quitting by this point in the season. Many expected the Jets would be one such team. Instead, they’re getting standout special teams efforts to power wins right after a trade deadline in which they dealt multiple veteran stars. Kudos to Jets special teams coordinator Chris Banjo, a longtime NFL vet who retired after the 2022 season and is in his first role as a full-time coordinator this season. Game ball!

Monday Night Monotony: Packers at a crossroads

There’s nothing better than a prime-time game that leaves both fan bases furious. The Eagles beat the Packers 10-7 in a game that was scoreless at halftime and 3-0 when the final period began. After the Eagles built a 10-0 lead on the back of a Saquon Barkley 41-yard catch-and-run, then DeVonta Smith’s 36-yard leaping touchdown snag, the lead seemed insurmountable.

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The Packers’ fan base is likely freaking out more. I wondered last week where the offense would find explosive plays in the absence of tight end Tucker Kraft, and the answer was absolutely nowhere. Love’s longest completion Monday was 25 yards, making this only the sixth game in his career in which he failed to complete a pass of at least 30 yards. By EPA per dropback, it was the fourth-worst game of Love’s career (minimum 20 dropbacks).

Kraft wasn’t the only Packers pass catcher inactive. Matthew Golden couldn’t go in this game because of a shoulder injury, and Jayden Reed is still out because of clavicle and foot injuries. Christian Watson, Dontayvion Wicks, and Savion Williams played despite being limited during the week, but the Packers’ receiving core was thin enough that receiver-turned-cornerback Bo Melton turned back for the night and ran 16 routes.

Injuries have certainly affected the Packers’ offense, but this was an uninspiring effort from coach Matt LaFleur, who seems to be out of answers. The Packers had a run rate 10 percentage points above expectation in this game, according to NFL Next Gen Stats numbers. It’s their fourth game with a run rate at least 10% over expectation, and those four games have been their four most disappointing outings: losses to the Panthers, Browns and Eagles and a tie to the Cowboys.

The run-heavy approach would be more interesting if the Packers were good at running the football. They aren’t. The Packers have registered 69 yards below expectation on running back carries, the third worst in the NFL. Their skill-position players are average to poor blockers outside of Kraft, who, again, is out for the year. Jacobs is a physical back but not one who generates explosive plays. And the line has been an utter disappointment.

Short of the playcalling and offensive philosophy, LaFleur struggled situationally in this game. The Packers passed on a 60-yard field goal attempt to go for a fourth-and-9 (a defensible choice) and punted on a fourth-and-11 that would have otherwise been a 57-yard field goal attempt (a little hard to defend, in my opinion). If you don’t trust your kicker from that long, OK … but the Packers are rostering Brandon McManus, who continues to work through a quad injury, in favor of Lucas Havrisik, who is 4-of-4 on the season and hit a 61-yarder. The Packers were stuck attempting a 64-yarder with McManus to try to tie the score on the last play.

Green Bay also sprinted to the line to go for a fourth-and-1 on what could have been the tying or winning drive. With 1:40 on a running clock and two timeouts, the Packers quick-snapped a zone run from the gun that Eagles defensive tackles Moro Ojomo and Jalen Carter blew up. The Packers’ line was clearly not ready, and the team was even flagged for illegal formation. With two timeouts in a 3-point game and more than 90 seconds left on the clock, the need for urgency was not nearly as extreme as the Packers acted.

The @Eagles get the stop on 4th down!

PHIvsGB on ESPN/ABC
Stream on @NFLPlus and ESPN App pic.twitter.com/STft4uZ2Lb

— NFL (@NFL) November 11, 2025

Green Bay had an embarrassing loss in Week 9 as a 13-point favorite over the Panthers. This game — at home against the defending Super Bowl champs — was a huge bounce-back opportunity for a perceived NFC contender. The Packers came out flat and never found juice. I’m officially worried about that locker room and the internal belief in Green Bay.