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André Snellings
Is Joel Embiid playing?
That is the first question to ask before every Philadelphia 76ers game. Embiid, the 2022-23 NBA MVP, is a dominant presence on the court when healthy, but he has played only 64 total games in the two-plus seasons since, and played in just six of the 76ers’ 12 games this season.
The 76ers have typically struggled with Embiid out of the lineup, but this season they seem to have built a team that can be competitive and productive whether Embiid is on the court or not. In the six games he has played, the team is 4-2 with a +2.8-point average scoring margin, but in the six he hasn’t the team is still 3-3 with a +2.5-point margin. Paul George, the 76ers’ big star acquisition last season, has yet to make his season debut this season but should do so soon.
As one might expect, when an elite, high-usage player like Embiid is out of the lineup, there’s a big shift in how the team produces numbers. So, for fantasy hoops managers and prop bettors, the 76ers are an extremely interesting team.
When Embiid plays for the 76ers
Embiid is the starting center but is on a minutes restriction. After managing only four points in 20 minutes in the opener, in his next five appearances Embiid has averaged 22.8 PPG, 5.4 RPG and 3.6 APG in 24.0 MPG. He’s scoring about a point per minute, as he has for the past several seasons, but his rebounding is way down. His backup center, Andre Drummond, plays only 11.6 MPG but grabs more rebounds with 6.8 RPG while scoring 6.8 PPG (44.4 FG%).
Tyrese Maxey has taken over as the primary option on offense for the 76ers, whether Embiid plays or not. With Embiid playing, Maxey averages 33.8 PPG on 48.1 FG%, along with 8.5 APG.
The player who picks up the most slack on the boards has been rookie guard VJ Edgecombe, who averages 7.0 RPG when Embiid plays. He also averages 17.2 PPG on 42.3 FG% and 4.3 APG.
Kelly Oubre Jr., starting at small forward with George out, is averaging 16.7 PPG on 51.8 FG% with 5.3 RPG.
The last fantasy impact player on the 76ers is Quentin Grimes, who averages 16.0 PPG on 44.1 FG% with 3.5 APG and 3.7 RPG.
When Embiid sits out for the 76ers
In the first game Embiid sat this season, Maxey scored a season-high 43 points. This fed my expectation that when Embiid was out, Maxey would put up even larger numbers than his norm. But in his five games sans Embiid since, Maxey’s numbers have dropped to 27.6 PPG on 41.5 FG% with 5.7 APG.
Similarly, Edgecombe’s numbers dip with Embiid out, down to 14.0 PPG on 38.5 FG%, 4.3 RPG and 3.7 APG.
Oubre’s scoring volume doesn’t change much with Embiid out, from 16.7 PPG to 16.8 PPG, but his field goal percentage dips from 51.8% to 47.4% and his rebounds drop from 5.3 RPG to 4.8 RPG.
It’s notable that both Edgecombe and Oubre grab fewer rebounds with Embiid out than when he plays. A big part of that reason is Drummond, who starts and vacuums the glass without Embiid. In the first games Embiid sat, Adem Bona started at center. But Drummond has taken over, and in his past four games averaged 14.0 PPG (69.9 FG%) and 12.3 RPG.
Grimes has also improved his play with Embiid out, averaging 17.2 PPG (49.5 FG%), 5.3 APG and 4.3 RPG.
Patterns and strategy
When Embiid is out of the game, the 76ers’ starting backcourt has relatively struggled with both Maxey and Edgecombe scoring less on much lower field goal percentages with fewer assists and rebounds. Wingman Oubre. has similar scoring volume but on lower field goal percentage and with slightly fewer rebounds. It seems clear that opposing defenses still focus on Embiid when he’s out there, which makes life easier on offense for the perimeter players around him.
Meanwhile, the producers off the bench get large bumps when Embiid is out. Drummond is replacing Embiid, and with starter minutes and opportunities he has shown he is still a strong double-double threat who can finish at extremely high efficiency. In fact, Drummond takes advantage of the added attention defenses pay to Maxey and the perimeter players with Embiid out. Grimes does as well, coming off the bench but playing more aggressive as a creator with Maxey and Edgecomb perhaps dealing with more fatigue from the extra defensive attention.
On the fantasy hoops front, Maxey is a must-start regardless of scenario. But the pattern suggests that he maybe shouldn’t be a DFS building block with Embiid out, since his production is slightly down but his price likely stays constant or even increases when Embiid is out. The pattern also suggests that prop betters might consider ‘unders’ on Maxey when Embiid sits.
Edgecomb has been a clear fantasy hoops starter when Embiid plays, but may be more of a gametime decision when Embiid sits. He and the other wings on the team could also see fewer opportunities in general when George returns to the lineup.
Drummond goes from a fantasy non-entity to a clear starter when Embiid is out. He becomes a worthy DFS center and an active play in the betting props market, particularly the rebound props.
Oubre and Grimes largely maintain similar value with and without Embiid, with Oubre slightly down with Embiid out and Grimes slightly up. But both could be strongly impacted by George’s return, so it is worth it to have conservative expectations once PG13 is officially cleared.
Bottom line, the 76ers are a different team when they have their star big man out there versus when they don’t. And but recognizing the differences, you can put your fantasy hoops squad, your DFS lineup or your prop bets in better positions to succeed.
