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Daniel Dopp
Each season, the fantasy football environment shifts just enough for us to rethink our drafting strategies. It could be a player in a new team, a new head coach, or an offensive coordinator. Or perhaps an intriguing rookie enters the league, raising fantasy hopes to new heights.
Having drafted over 60 best ball teams and completed at least 45 mock drafts, I’ve encountered several scenarios that have kept me awake at night, contemplating how to approach certain players or positions.
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The wonderful aspect of fantasy football is that no one manages your team but you. You can read this article, deem it worthless, and continue with your day, selecting the players you’re most excited to have. Alternatively, you could find some valuable insights here and keep those tips handy for your drafts this year.
There’s no single correct way to draft, as long as you draft confidently. Sports evoke emotions, and fantasy sports are no exception.
The most crucial lesson I’ve learned from participating in over 100 drafts of different formats is not to let emotions take control on draft day. Have a strategy. Create tiers instead of relying on static rankings, and feel good about your choices. If you want to take a player you love a round earlier, go for it! You’re responsible for setting your lineup and living with your draft choices, so don’t cede ground based on others’ opinions.
With that motivational speech behind us, let’s explore some of my key fantasy football draft insights from this summer.
You can select a top-tier QB or TE, but landing both is a challenge
This year, paying attention to the «island» positions of quarterback and tight end feels more crucial than in years past, particularly at tight end.
We have a distinct top tier of four or five quarterbacks (some may not include Joe Burrow in the same tier as Jalen Hurts, Josh Allen, Jayden Daniels, and Lamar Jackson) and an even more evident top-tier tight end group featuring Brock Bowers and Trey McBride, with George Kittle closely following. Securing a top-tier QB or TE is relatively straightforward given the available options, but successfully acquiring elite options at both spots is challenging due to what you must forgo in the early rounds.
The quarterbacks noted above typically come off the board from the third round to late fourth round, with tight ends being selected in the late second to early fourth. If you secure both positions early, you significantly risk weakening your starting RB and/or WR depth.
Derrick Henry (second)
RB: D’Andre Swift (seventh)
WR: Justin Jefferson (first)
WR: Xavier Worthy (fifth)
TE: Trey McBride (third)
Flex: DK Metcalf (sixth)
Travis Hunter is a puzzle, and anyone saying otherwise is not being truthful
We are all uncertain about how Hunter will be utilized in 2025. We recognize he’s a unique talent that will play on both sides of the ball, but what does that imply for fantasy? How many snaps will he participate in on offense compared to defense? While we’ve heard his stamina is exceptional, it’s still uncertain how he will endure the demands of an entire NFL season.
Hunter possesses immense talent and should be viewed as a potential starter for your fantasy team. I consider him a WR3/flex with the potential for more, depending on how the Jaguars deploy him. In a recent episode of the «Fantasy Focus Football» podcast, our YouTube chat held a poll asking if listeners/viewers were targeting Hunter in drafts or if they preferred to select a player with fewer uncertainties around their situation. An impressive 63% of our audience indicated they were steering clear of Hunter in drafts.
He is indeed a puzzle. In IDP leagues, he will excel where he will also score points for contributions on the offensive side, yet in standard fantasy leagues, he won’t earn points for tackles, interceptions, or forced fumbles (unless your league manager modifies the scoring settings). The key takeaway is to have a clear opinion on Hunter before entering your draft rather than just improvising.
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Why there is risk in drafting Saquon Barkley early
Tristan Cockcroft discusses the optimal timing for fantasy managers to select Saquon Barkley.
Saquon Barkley’s workload last season was incredible, but it poses a problem for 2025
Barkley’s 2024 fantasy campaign was remarkable. However, it raises concerns for savvy fantasy managers due to his enormous workload. Including playoff games, he notched 436 total carries (tied for the highest in the past 25 years) and 482 touches (the third most during that period). He also participated in 20 games!
Historically, running backs who receive such a high volume often experience a significant decline in fantasy output the next season. Whether due to clear regression or injury, six out of the last eight RBs with 450 touches in a season experienced an average decrease in production of at least 6 fantasy points per game in the following year.
This isn’t an indictment of Barkley or the Philadelphia Eagles. He ranks among the elite RBs in the game, supported by one of the top offensive lines, on a team that has the lowest pass attempt rate in the NFL. Even if he regresses from 2,300 total yards to 1,600 total yards, he would still be exceptional; however, I’m not comfortable with predicting who will be a historical exception.
This season, I’m opting against Barkley and his anticipated regression, instead favoring the best available player on the draft board. Whether that’s a WR or RB does not matter; selecting a player coming off a career season in which he played 20 games is not appealing, particularly at Barkley’s early-first-round price. If you choose to draft Barkley this year, be prepared to ensure additional RB depth just to be safe.
Invest in players returning from injuries late last season
Two players who came back late last season and didn’t resemble their prior selves are Isiah Pacheco and T.J. Hockenson. I’m looking to capitalize on their lower value.
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My co-host on «Fantasy Focus,» Stephania Bell, frequently discusses the distinction between players who return to performance levels and those who simply return to the field. Just being present isn’t sufficient, as Pacheco’s managers discovered in the latter part of last season. He came back in Week 13 after fracturing his fibula in Week 2, and he did not resemble the aggressive runner we were accustomed to. He lost weight during his absence and evidently lacked the explosive burst we associate with him.
However, the team made minimal moves to address the RB position this year. Following Pacheco are Kareem Hunt, Elijah Mitchell, and seventh-round rookie Brashard Smith. That’s not exactly stiff competition, which is why I’m targeting Pacheco in drafts this year. Last season, he ranked among the top 12 to 15 RBs, but this year he can be found in the 20 to 25 range.
Hockenson’s situation is similar. He returned prior to Pacheco, resuming play after missing the first seven games due to an ACL/MCL tear that occurred in 2023. He had a few games that reminded us of the old T.J., with four games exceeding 10 fantasy points, but he also experienced instances where he seemed out of sync with the offense, resulting in six games with fewer than 6 fantasy points. He was not back to his full form yet, and it was evident.
Currently, Hockenson has fully recovered from his injury and will gain from Jordan Addison’s absence during the first three games of the season, positioning him as the No. 2 target in this offense. Once viewed as a top-four tight end option in drafts, Hockenson is now seen closer to the TE6 to TE8 tier. Personally, I have him as my TE5, just behind Sam LaPorta, and I’m capitalizing on his drop in ADP. If I miss out on the top tight ends, I’m not opposed to waiting and selecting Hockenson in the middle rounds. He will provide great value at a position that depletes faster than any other in fantasy football. I want both Pacheco and Hockenson as undervalued players.
