Looking for sharp college football betting information through predictive analytics and analysis?
The Power Rank member college football model comes from my background (Ph.D. in chemical engineering from Stanford) and uses play-by-play and market data to make spread predictions. Since the start of the 2023 season through Week 11, the predictions are 52% against the opening market (820-758 with 26 pushes in games in which the prediction differs from the market by a point or more).
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In addition to the model, I research subjective factors the model doesn’t consider to make long-term profitable bets.
Let’s look at five predictions for Week 12 of the college football season.
No. 10 Texas at No. 5 Georgia (-6, 48.5)
The Power Rank prediction: Georgia 29.5, Texas 20.1
Arch Manning has played better in the last two games. He threw for 346 yards against Mississippi State in leading Texas to a come-from-behind win. Manning’s 6.22 yards per pass attempt aren’t too impressive (6.40 college football average), but he showed throwing accuracy in the second half that was missing from his previous games.
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Manning followed up that performance with 328 passing yards against Vanderbilt. This time, his 9.94 YPPA was impressive. Now, Manning faces a Georgia defense that has been questionable against the pass (30th in my YPPA adjusted for opposing quarterbacks). Is this the formula for a Texas upset?
Probably not. Georgia QB Gunner Stockton has been terrific as he leads the 12th-ranked offense by my adjusted YPPA. This past week, he threw for 9.1 YPPA against the same Mississippi State defense Manning faced.
My best number favors Georgia by 9.4. A market with Georgia as less than a touchdown favorite puts too much faith in Manning. Even if Georgia doesn’t cover, a win almost certainly puts Texas out of the playoff, which was a bet from last week.
Bet: Georgia -6
Texas quarterback Arch Manning has played well recently. Will it last? (AP Photo/Eric Gay)
(ASSOCIATED PRESS)
No. 11 Oklahoma at No. 4 Alabama (-6, 45.5)
The Power Rank prediction: Alabama 27.1, Oklahoma 22
Alabama has an 8-1 record and has yet to lose in the SEC. However, it has squeaked out one-score wins over Georgia, South Carolina and Missouri in addition to a loss to 4-5 Florida State.
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QB Ty Simpson has been great, as he leads the 15th-ranked pass offense by my adjusted YPPA. However, the run game has gone silent as top RB Jam Miller has rushed for 1.8 yards per carry the past three games.
Oklahoma is still in the college football playoff picture despite losses to Texas and Ole Miss. QB John Mateer hasn’t been great since returning from a hand injury against Texas.
However, Oklahoma has found a spark in the run game. Despite not having OT Derek Simmons the past two games, RB Xavier Robinson has exploded for 215 yards in those contests. It seems like he has replaced former top RB Tory Blaylock.
My numbers have Alabama by 5.1 points in this game. This doesn’t suggest much value in Oklahoma +6. However, Oklahoma is actually rated two points better than Alabama in my numbers that only use data from the current season. This data probably underrates Oklahoma because of the injury to Mateer.
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Bet: Oklahoma +6
No. 18 Michigan (-11.5, 41.5) vs. Northwestern
The Power Rank prediction: Michigan 27.7, Northwestern 18.2
Preston Stone lost the starting QB job at SMU last season to Kevin Jennings. Stone transferred to Northwestern and hasn’t been great, as the pass offense ranks 82nd in my adjusted YPPA.
However, Stone’s performance has been solid for a Northwestern program that has struggled on offense. Along with a sturdy defense, Northwestern has a surprising 5-4 record.
Michigan’s offense is a work in progress, as freshman Bryce Underwood has struggled in the last two games against Michigan State and Purdue. However, fellow freshman WR Andrew Marsh has emerged the past five games with a solid 2.56 yards per route run. Top RB Justice Haynes is out with an injury, but Jordan Marshall showed some explosiveness with 185 yards on 7.4 yards per carry against Purdue.
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I’m assuming a neutral site for this game at Wrigley Field in Chicago, as the Michigan fans might outnumber the Northwestern home faithful. My numbers have Michigan by 9.5 points, but I like the total more than the spread. A market of 41.5 total points seems like an overreaction to the past two Michigan games, and my model predicts 45.9 points.
Bet: Lean over 41.5 points
Marcel Reed to win the Heisman
It’s not a surprise that the QBs from the top two teams in the nation are favorites to win the Heisman. Indiana’s Fernando Mendoza had his Heisman moment with a touchdown pass to win at Penn State this past weekend. Despite these heroics, Ohio State’s Julian Sayin is a slight favorite (+160 compared to +175 for Mendoza).
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One of these two players most likely wins, but there is still value in a longer shot. Texas A&M QB Marcel Reed has been excellent in leading his team to second in The Power Rank’s member college football rankings behind only Ohio State. He has 19 passing touchdowns, but he is also an electric runner with six rushing touchdowns.
You should not ignore a star quarterback from an undefeated team in the SEC in the Heisman race. Reed gets a marquee match up against rival Texas the final week of the season, and a big play to win that game would vault him right up with Sayin and Mendoza to win college football’s biggest award.
Bet: Marcel Reed +750 to win the Heisman
No. 9 Notre Dame (-12.5, 55.5) at No. 22 Pittsburgh
The Power Rank prediction: Notre Dame 32.9, Pittsburgh 23.3
Notre Dame started the season with losses to Miami and Texas A&M by a total of four points. In a different era, these results would have booted the Fighting Irish from national championship contention. With a 12-team playoff, Notre Dame is in the conversation with a 7-2 record and No. 9 ranking.
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Notre Dame would be higher if the committee looked at the underlying metrics. QB CJ Carr has been excellent, and the Notre Dame offense ranks fifth in my adjusted yards per play on offense. The defense isn’t far behind at sixth in those same numbers.
Since those opening two losses, Notre Dame has won every game by double digits. With Pittsburgh, Syracuse and Stanford on their remaining schedule, it seems unlikely this trend will stop. My numbers have Notre Dame by 9.5 points, but it seems unwise to go against an elite team against a Pittsburgh team ranked 39th in my numbers.
Bet: Pass
Ed Feng runs The Power Rank, a football analytics and betting site.
