Week 13 betting guide: Texans to keep up with Colts? Broncos extend win streak?

Value is value, no matter where — or how — you find it. And that’s what we’ll aim to do each week in this space — find value.

Ben Solak, Seth Walder and Matt Bowen bring different perspectives into how they approach sports betting. Solak leans on his expertise in player evaluation and the X’s and O’s to find edges, while Walder relies on statistical models to pick out plus-expected value bets. Bowen, a former NFL safety, predicts positive matchups and game winners from tape study and his understanding of the league.

These weekly picks will not be limited to a certain bet type. From spreads and money lines to totals or even defensive player props, a good price might be found anywhere.

Results will be tracked throughout the season, with flat one-unit wagers for each listed bet.

With that, let’s dive in to Week 13. Odds are from ESPN BET Sportsbook and subject to change.

Note: Defensive prop bets will be added as they become available.

Jump to:
Game bets | Defensive props | Offensive props

Game bets

Houston Texans cover +4.5 (-115) at Indianapolis Colts

Bowen: Let’s bet on the Houston defensive front to disrupt the timing and rhythm of Daniel Jones. When pressured this season, Jones’ off-target rate jumps to 25%. And we saw what this Texans pass rush did to Josh Allen in Week 12 (eight sacks). Plus, with the return of starting quarterback C.J. Stroud, Houston gets a boost on offense, too. The Texans cover, and I think they can win outright.

Denver Broncos cover -6 (-110) at Washington Commanders

Bowen: With the Broncos coming off the bye week, I like Sean Payton’s offense versus a Washington defensive unit that is giving up a league-worst 6.3 yards per play. This should be a heavily-schemed game plan for quarterback Bo Nix, with defined throws. I like the run game matchup for Denver, too. And let’s not forget about the Broncos’ pass rush, which has produced a league-leading 49 sacks this season. They will speed up Marcus Mariota’s internal clock on Sunday night. Denver covers the spread.

New York Jets cover +2.5 (-105) vs. Atlanta Falcons

Solak: In Kirk Cousins’ first start, the Falcons got the drop on the Saints defense. They changed the offense dramatically, running far more under-center dropbacks and 13 personnel sets than they had previously.

They won’t get a surprise factor again. With Drake London out, I expect the Jets to play tons of press man coverage across the board on the Falcons’ receivers, and their pass rush is more than enough to heat the immobile Cousins up in the pocket.

With Tyrod Taylor at quarterback for New York, the passing game is marginally better, and the Jets retain a strong running game. That’s the difference against a Falcons defense that is 28th in rushing success rate. Expect the Jets to control pace and tempo in this game and get multiple takeaways as well. I also like them on the money line.

New York Giants to cover +7 (-105) at New England Patriots

Will Campbell and rookie left guard Jared Wilson are both out for this contest, as is star defensive tackle Milton Williams. DT Khyiris Tonga, a key run-stopping piece, was limited in practice Wednesday.

The Giants pass rush should feast on long-and-late downs, and while the Patriots’ running game is improved, they can’t exploit a bad Giants run defense the way the Lions did. With quarterback Jaxson Dart back, expect a healthy dose of scrambling and play extension against the Patriots’ heavy man coverage approach. A few explosive plays should keep this within one score.

Pittsburgh Steelers to cover +3.5 (-110) vs. Buffalo Bills

Solak: Styles make fights here, and the Steelers’ style on offense is a nightmare for the Bills. The Bills’ defense is one of the lightest in football; Pittsburgh is one of the heaviest. In expected rainy and windy weather, that favors the Steelers. Buffalo’s run defense allows a dead-last 6.6 yards per carry when facing multiple tight end sets this season, and Pittsburgh runs more multiple tight end sets than any offense in football. The Steelers should be able to string together long drives and pick up tons of yards after contact.

On the defensive side of the ball, Pittsburgh wants to be a man-coverage team and struggles when asked to play zone. But the Bills don’t have the receivers necessary to punish Pittsburgh’s man-heavy defense. The Bills struggled mightily with the pass rush duo of Will Anderson Jr. and Danielle Hunter, and while T.J. Watt and Alex Highsmith aren’t that caliber, they’re of a similar play style and impact. Expect to see Josh Allen under heavy pressure and to make some bad mistakes accordingly. I’ll have some Steelers money line in pocket here as well.

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Seth Walder’s defensive props

Defensive prop bets will be added as they become available.

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Offensive player props

Jonathan Taylor rushing yards OVER 86.5 (-115)

Solak: In three games against DeMeco Ryans’ defense, Taylor has totaled 188, 48 and 105 yards. And in that 48-yard game, Anthony Richardson Sr. put up 56 rushing yards of his own, and the Colts only had 43 plays to the Texans’ 73. It was a weird one.

Altogether, Taylor averaged 5.2 yards per rush in three games against the Texans, and 18.2% of his runs have gone for 10+ yards — both above his averages since 2023. The Texans, for as great of a defense as they are, run predictable fronts and are accordingly easier to scheme against in the running game, especially if you’re familiar with them as a divisional opponent.

As quarterback Daniel Jones continues sliding through his slump, expect coach Shane Steichen to rely on Taylor heavily on early downs to keep the Colts out of clear dropback situations. So long as Taylor pops one big one — which he seemingly always does — we’ll have the volume necessary to get to this number.

Josh Allen passing yards OVER 237.5 (-115)

Christian McCaffrey receiving yards OVER 39.5 (-120)

Bowen: McCaffrey has 40 or more yards receiving in every game he has played this season, so the lower total here reflects the matchup versus the Browns’ defense. I get that. But let’s remember that Cleveland is a man-heavy unit, which will allow the 49ers to isolate McCaffrey on backfield releases or flexed alignments. And CMC can be a top target underneath for Brock Purdy if the weather is an issue.

Michael Pittman Jr. receptions OVER 4.5 (Even)

Bowen: Pittman has logged five or more receptions in four of his past five games. Think in-breaking concepts to the middle of the field here versus the Texans’ defense (target the zone voids), plus the slants and quicks versus off-coverage.

Travis Etienne Jr. rushing yards OVER 64.5 (-115)

Bowen: Etienne has rushed for 60 or more yards in three of his past four games, with at least 15 touches in each. His play speed is jumping on the tape, too. Let’s bet on Etienne to hit the over versus a Titans defense allowing an average of 4.8 YPC (27th in the league).

Geno Smith passing yards UNDER 204.5 (-115)

Solak: In the last two weeks of the Chip Kelly era in Las Vegas, Smith had 42 and 44 pass attempts, respectively. The called run rate for the Raiders’ offense has been below 30% in four of its past five games. Now, Kelly is out and Greg Olsen is in. If Pete Carroll, a longtime believer in good defense and possession offense, has any influence over the new offensive playcalling, it’ll be this: Run the ball.

The Chargers are a gettable run defense and a shell pass defense, too, meaning Smith will be forced to check down when he does attempt passes. I expect a successful day on the ground for Ashton Jeanty, which should shorten the field and the game clock with which Smith has to pass. Only two quarterbacks this year have gone over their passing yardage props against the Chargers, and with the philosophy shift inbound in Las Vegas, Smith won’t have the opportunity necessary to become the third.

Cam Ward rushing yards OVER 9.5 (-120)

Solak: Ward has at least two carries in each of his past four games and set career highs with six carries for 37 yards and a score last week against the Seattle Seahawks. The Seahawks and Texans (three carries for 33 yards in Week 11) are high pressure teams, and Ward responded by using his legs more than he has for much of this season. This increased rushing usage has coincided with the absence of star receiver Calvin Ridley and rookie receiver Elic Ayomanor, as Ward has needed to find more answers on the ground.

Ward now gets a Jaguars defense currently allowing 4.7 yards per rush to opposing quarterbacks — a number well above league average — despite not facing any of the most dangerous rushing quarterbacks. In the Jaguars’ past four games, they have surrendered 20 rushing yards to Jacoby Brissett, 21 to Justin Herbert, 20 to Davis Mills and nine to Geno Smith. Ward’s legs will be a factor in this one, especially if the game is close late.

Brock Purdy passing yards UNDER 208.5 (-115)

Solak: It’s hard to bet into Purdy’s current arm strength, as throws are clearly dying on the quarterback as he returns from his turf toe injury. In Cleveland on Sunday, winds are expected to gust in the 30 mph range, and rain could affect Purdy’s grip on the football. I expect to see a similar game plan from Kyle Shanahan as we saw in the second half against the Panthers, when Purdy had only 3.6 air yards per attempt on nine passes.

The Browns’ defense is a stifling group that tackles well, so while the 49ers will certainly get some yards after the catch, I don’t think they’ll get enough to actually get Purdy to this figure. The Browns should also pressure Purdy a lot, which will invite Purdy to scramble instead. If both teams turn out with heavy run rates over expectation, the cumulative snaps won’t be there for Purdy to get over this number.

Shedeur Sanders rushing yards UNDER 17.5 (-110)

Baker Mayfield and Justin Herbert, and I feel like it’s a reasonable bet that Sanders will be less of a running threat than them.

Breece Hall receptions UNDER 2.5 (+120)

Walder: I’ve written plenty this year about running back reception splits against man and zone coverage. Running backs catch passes almost twice as frequently against zone compared to man, so the fact that the Falcons play 54% man coverage (third most) is part of the reason I’m fading Hall here. But it’s not the only reason. Here’s another running back reception split: the blitz. Since 2021, running backs have recorded receptions 14% of the time when their team is not blitzed, but only 8% of the time when they are — presumably because they stay home to block when extra rushers are coming. And at a 38% blitz rate (second most), the Falcons will be sending extra rushers plenty.

Jaxon Smith-Njigba to win Offensive Player of the Year (-105)

Walder: I’m kicking myself for not doing this earlier, but it’s better late than never. Smith-Njigba is having a ridiculous season, and I don’t see how he’s not a heavy favorite over Jonathan Taylor. Here is the highest yards per route run by any player in a season (min. 200 routes) since 2007:

Smith-Njigba (2025): 4.8
Tyreek Hill (2023): 4.0
Steve Smith (2008): 3.9
Puka Nacua (2024): 3.7
Nacua (2025): 3.5

Taylor is having a nice season, but I don’t see how he’s in the same ballpark. Consider: Taylor’s yards per carry ranks 27th best in the same span (min. 100 carries). Smith-Njigba is blowing away the field, historically.