Key intel on the games that could decide three division races

No division winners will be crowned this week in the NFL, but three games Sunday could go a long way toward deciding who wins the NFC North and a pair of divisions in the AFC.

The three Week 14 first-place showdowns are the Chicago Bears (9-3-1) at Green Bay Packers (8-3) in the NFC North, Indianapolis Colts (8-4) at Jacksonville Jaguars (8-4) in the AFC South and Pittsburgh Steelers (6-6) at Baltimore Ravens (6-6) in the AFC North.

How critical are these divisional games? Since 2002, of the 159 teams that were leading their division through Week 14, when the NFL went to eight divisions, 139 of them won their division. That’s 87.4%.

It’s also worth noting that all three of these games will have rematches in the coming weeks. The Packers and Bears have their second meeting within a three-game span in Week 16. The Jaguars and Colts play again in Week 17, and the Ravens face the Steelers in the regular-season finale.

Our NFL Nation reporters break down what you need to know ahead of this weekend’s division clashes.

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AFC North: Steelers at Ravens (1 p.m. ET, CBS)

Overall record: 6-6
Division record: 2-1
AFC North position: Tied for first place with Ravens
Odds: Win division (+285), make playoffs (+260)

FPI with win: Win division (63%), make playoffs (64%)

FPI with loss: Win division (17%), make playoffs (17%)

How did the Steelers get here? Thanks to a hot start and injuries for the rest of the AFC North teams, the Steelers appeared to be running away with the division, holding a 2½-game lead going into the Thursday night game against the Cincinnati Bengals in Week 7. But Ja’Marr Chase and Joe Flacco picked apart the Steelers’ defense and handed Pittsburgh a loss, kicking off a stretch during which the Steelers have lost five of their past seven games. In that span, the Steelers’ defense has allowed an average of 122.7 rushing yards per game, while the offense has struggled to move the ball consistently with Mason Rudolph or Aaron Rodgers at quarterback.

QB situation: Rodgers fractured his left (non-throwing) wrist late in the first half during the rematch with the Bengals three weeks ago and was sidelined for the subsequent six quarters. Rudolph took his place in the second half and started against the Chicago Bears. During that stretch, Rudolph completed 36 of 47 attempts for 298 yards with 1 touchdown, 2 interceptions and a lost fumble. Rodgers, meanwhile, started struggling even before his wrist injury, beginning with a dismal night in the loss to the Chargers on Nov. 9, when he completed 51% of his attempts and took a sack for a safety. Coming off another subpar outing against the Bills on Nov. 30, when he completed just 47% of his attempts and split the bridge of his nose on a strip-sack, Rodgers is in line to start his second straight game with the fractured wrist Sunday.

Injury update: Not only have the Steelers been managing Rodgers’ wrist injury, but they also enter Sunday’s game without rookie first-round pick Derrick Harmon. Harmon is missing his second consecutive game because of a knee injury sustained in Chicago. The Steelers’ defense has dealt with injuries throughout the season, including a season-ending hyperextended knee to safety DeShon Elliott and ACL tears to veteran depth defensive linemen Dean Lowry and Daniel Ekuale.

Key to winning Sunday: It all comes down to stopping the run. The Steelers didn’t do that in their wild-card loss to the Ravens last season, allowing Baltimore to rush for 299 yards as Derrick Henry exploded for 186. The Steelers’ run defense has been inconsistent this season, giving up a season-worst 249 rushing yards to the Buffalo Bills in its last game. But there is some reason for hope: Earlier this season, the Steelers’ run defense held Jonathan Taylor, the NFL’s leading rusher, to 45 yards on 14 carries in the win against the Colts. — Brooke Pryor

What they’re saying: Cameron Heyward on the late-season grind and what the team has left in the tank: «A lot left in the tank. You sign up to play football. You don’t sign up to count heartbeats. We got to do whatever it takes to get the job done. You’ve seen teams, you look at that Super Bowl [the Steelers won at the end of the 2005 season, beating Seattle], they had to have a string of games late to really qualify for the playoffs. So, one, you got to get off the field when you can, but two, whatever comes in front of you, you got to go out and attack it.»

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Overall record: 6-6
Division record: 2-1
AFC North position: Tied for first place with the Ravens
Odds: Win division (-240), make playoffs (-220)

FPI with win: Win division (75%), make playoffs (75%)

FPI with loss: Win division (31%), make playoffs (31%)

How did the Ravens get here? The preseason betting favorite to win the Super Bowl, the Ravens have yet to produce one complete game this season in which every unit was clicking. The Baltimore defense struggled mightily during a franchise-worst 1-5 start, giving up an NFL-high 32.3 points per game. When the Ravens rebounded to win five of their next six games, their offense sputtered repeatedly on third down (34.7%) and in the red zone (48%), both of which rank in the bottom quarter of the league. With game changers such as quarterback Lamar Jackson and do-it-all safety Kyle Hamilton, the Ravens’ players said this week that they feel there is still time for this team to hit its stride and live up to its championship potential.

QB situation: Lamar Jackson hasn’t looked like Lamar Jackson. After throwing 15 touchdown passes and one interception in his first six starts, Jackson has hit the worst slump of his career, producing zero touchdowns in three straight games. Injuries and indecision have led to the two-time NFL MVP putting up some uncharacteristic numbers. He hasn’t completed more than 60% of his passes in four consecutive games for the first time in his eight-year career, and he’s averaging a career-low 29.3 yards rushing per game. The Ravens need Jackson to flip into MVP mode if they want to win a third straight AFC North title.

Injury update: Jackson is dealing with an ankle injury after getting stepped on during Wednesday’s practice, but he is set to start Sunday. This marked the fourth straight week that Jackson has missed a practice because of an injury. He has had injuries to his knee, ankle and toe over this span. The only other injury concern was top cornerback Nate Wiggins, who missed the second half of Baltimore’s last game because of a foot injury. But Wiggins practiced all week and will play against Pittsburgh, according to coach John Harbaugh.

Key to winning Sunday: Ball security. Jackson and the Ravens can’t afford to give away another division game, as they did in a 32-14 loss to the Bengals on Thanksgiving night, when they turned the ball over five times. That’s a strong lesson going into Sunday’s game against Pittsburgh because mistakes have defined Baltimore’s success against its biggest rival. Since 2022, the Ravens are 3-1 against the Steelers, including the playoffs, when they turned the ball over no more than once. Over that same span, Baltimore is 0-3 against Pittsburgh when it has committed multiple turnovers. — Jamison Hensley

What they’re saying: «If you can’t get up for this one, I think that shows something about your character [and] about your will. And honestly, I think that just shows if you are a Raven or if you’re not a Raven. They say that there’s no must-win game, but this is definitely a must-win game,» cornerback Marlon Humphrey said.

AFC South: Colts at Jaguars (1 p.m. ET, CBS)

Overall record: 8-4
Division record: 2-1
AFC South position: Tied for first with Jaguars
Odds: Win division (+145), make playoffs (-310)

FPI with win: Win division (61%), make playoffs (88%)

FPI with loss: Win division (19%), make playoffs (57%)

How did the Colts get here? Indianapolis got off to a sizzling start, with a league-best 7-1 record through eight games. The Cots’ offense was on a historic pace, leading the league in several categories. Even after consecutive subpar performances, the Colts remain the league’s top-scoring team. Jonathan Taylor leads the NFL with 1,282 rushing yards and 15 rushing touchdowns, though he has been quiet the past two games. Taylor’s 244-yard performance against the Atlanta Falcons last month was the biggest single-game rushing effort this season. Likewise, his 83-yard touchdown in that game was the longest run of 2025.

QB situation: The Colts believe they’ve found a potential long-term solution in Daniel Jones after years of flailing at quarterback. Jones, who signed a one-year free agent deal in March, won an offseason position battle with Anthony Richardson Sr. for the job and helped power Indianapolis’ historic offensive start to the season. But the Colts will need Jones to come through when it matters most. They have five games remaining, all against teams with winning records. Whether Jones comes through will set the tone for offseason decisions regarding his future.

Injury update: Jones will need to perform well in spite of a small fracture in his left fibula. The issue was discovered two weeks ago and, in the two games since, Jones has posted his lowest passing yards and completion rates of the season. He has consistently said the condition is improving. Meanwhile, the Colts are still without standout defensive tackle DeForest Buckner (neck), who isn’t eligible to return from injured reserve until next week. They’re also likely to be without new cornerback Sauce Gardner, who sustained a calf injury Sunday and could miss multiple games.

Key to winning Sunday: The Colts have to regain the upper hand on offense by being more consistent on early downs and, thereby, keeping Taylor involved. Indianapolis was 3-of-10 on third downs in its loss to the Texans on Sunday, in part because of long down-and-distance situations. Of those 10 third downs, seven were third-and-7 or longer. Staying «on schedule» on offense with better production on first downs has been a key for the Colts all season. But they’ve dropped from 7.2 yards per play on first downs to 6 yards per play in the past two games. — Stephen Holder

What they’re saying: «We’re playing really good teams now. So, we’ve got to be more on point with some of those things than maybe we did earlier in the season. We’ve got a hard stretch coming up. We got a big game this weekend, so perfect time to get back on track,» Josh Downs said.

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Overall record: 8-4
Division record: 32-1
AFC South position: Tied for first with Colts
Odds: Win division (+145), make playoffs (-550)

FPI with win: Win division (64%), make playoffs (96%)

FPI with loss: Win division (19%), make playoffs (75%)

How did the Jaguars get here? They’ve won four of their past five games despite a slew of injuries that led to 10 starters missing games over that stretch: WR/CB Travis Hunter (knee, done for season), DE Travon Walker (knee), CB Jourdan Lewis (neck), S Eric Murray (neck), RG Patrick Mekari (concussion), LG Ezra Cleveland (knee), WR Brian Thomas Jr. (ankle), TE Brenton Strange (hip), DT Arik Armstead (hand), and LB Devin Lloyd (calf). Their depth has held up, though, and they won two OT games on the road by making plays late. The one constant has been RB Travis Etienne Jr. and the run game.

QB situation: Trevor Lawrence has been up and down all season, as evidenced by his past two games: Four turnovers against Arizona, followed by none and his highest passer rating (111.5) of the season against Tennessee. However, that’s partly due to coach Liam Coen encouraging Lawrence to «let it rip.» The addition of Jakobi Meyers at the trade deadline has given Lawrence a sure-handed receiver and he has become the receiver Lawrence trusts the most in just four games (18 catches on 21 targets).

Injury update: Lewis (their top cornerback), Lloyd, Cleveland, Thomas and Strange are back, and Murray is likely to return Sunday. WR Parker Washington (hip) and LT Walker Little (concussion) were hurt last week and their availability is in doubt. Walker hasn’t practiced since getting hurt Nov. 16, so he might not play, either. Armstead is a question, too. Those last two are some of the Jaguars’ better pass rushers, but also critical players on the run defense tasked with limiting Taylor.

Key to winning Sunday: It starts with keeping Taylor in check. The Colts are 3-4 in games in which Taylor has rushed for fewer than 100 yards, including the past two (losses to Kansas City and Houston). Surprisingly, Taylor has not had much success in Jacksonville. In four games at EverBank Stadium, he has failed to rush for more than 77 yards, and the Colts — who haven’t won in Jacksonville since 2014 — are 0-4 in those games. — Michael DiRocco

What they’re saying: «We come back, we prepare the same way that we always have, especially this last couple of weeks, keep our focus internally, go out there and play our brand football, we’ll win this game,» defensive end Josh Hines-Allen said.

Chicago Bears

Overall record: 9-3
Division record: 1-2
NFC North position: First
Odds: Win division (+175), make playoffs (-270)

FPI with win: Win division (59%), make playoffs (92%)

FPI with loss: Win division (20%), make playoffs (67%)

How did the Bears get here? The Bears have won five straight, including a defining 24-15 win over the Philadelphia Eagles on Black Friday that legitimized their résumé. Chicago is built on the NFL’s No. 2 rushing offense (153.8 yards/game), an opportunistic defense that leads the league in takeaways (26) and turnover margin (plus-17, no other team is better than plus-9). Caleb Williams’ growth under coach Ben Johnson was clear as Williams led five game-winning drives in the fourth quarter/overtime. It’s a critical part of why the Bears have pulled off several late-game rallies to boast a 6-1 record in one-score games.

QB situation: Johnson clarified his comments about the Bears «winning in spite of our passing game, not because of it,» so it wouldn’t be construed that he’s unhappy with Williams’ play. Johnson was pleased with how Williams managed the game against Philadelphia, but the quarterback’s accuracy issues are concerning. Williams is last in completion percentage (58%) and completion percentage over expectation (-9%), and his five interceptions have come against zone coverage. The Packers’ defense has run zone on 69% of opponents’ dropbacks this season (third highest in NFL).

Injury update: The Bears’ defense could get a much-needed boost at linebacker. T.J. Edwards was back at practice this week for the first time since breaking his hand against the Bengals on Nov. 2. Though he’s also recovering from a hamstring injury, having Edwards back goes a long way toward how the Bears can scheme against Josh Jacobs and the Packers’ run game. Fellow linebacker Noah Sewell, who missed Chicago’s past two games because of an elbow injury, has been a full participant in practice. Running back Kyle Monangai is dealing with an ankle injury after his 130-yard rushing performance against the Eagles.

Key to winning Sunday: Chicago’s run game has been at its best on the road, with season highs in rushing at Cincinnati and Philadelphia. After dual 100-yard rushing performances from Monangai and D’Andre Swift, the Bears should lean heavily on their ground attack to set the tone and control the clock the way they did against the Eagles. With injuries along Green Bay’s defensive line, notably to tackle Devonte Wyatt, the Bears’ offensive line comes to Lambeau Field with the edge up front. — Courtney Cronin

What they’re saying: «The significance of it at the moment isn’t much,» tight end Cole Kmet said of the Bears currently being the NFC’s No. 1 seed. «Look, I know how this all is. We’re on the so-called mountain top right now, but those things change quickly week to week. … It’s on us to stick to our process on stuff. But to see where we’ve gone as a team, specifically offensively from Weeks 1 and 2 to now, it’s really cool to see and see our identity take shape, especially in the run game.»

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Overall record: 8-3-1
Division record: 3-0
NFC North position: Second
Odds: Win division (-140), make playoffs (-900)

FPI with win: Win division (70%), make playoffs (95%)

FPI with loss: Win division (25%), make playoffs (76%)

How did the Packers get here? Unlike last season, when they went 1-5 in NFC North games — with the only win coming on a last-second blocked field goal attempt in Chicago — the Packers have taken care of business in the division. The Thanksgiving win at Detroit gave them the season sweep of the Lions for the first time since 2020. This is the end of a three-game stretch of all division games, which started with the Week 12 win over the Vikings. After consecutive home losses to the Panthers and Eagles in which they combined to score only 20 points, Packers coach Matt LaFleur found something on offense. In the three games since those two losses, they have the fourth-most offensive points per game in the league.

QB situation: This is Jordan Love’s time of the year, and his four-touchdown game against the Lions last week might be the start of another strong stretch to close the season. In his three seasons as the Packers’ starter, Love has played some of his best football when the calendar turns to November. In 24 career regular-season games in November or later, Love has combined for 37 touchdowns and six interceptions while completing 65.8% of his passes. Love has the NFL’s highest Total QBR (73.3) in games played in November or later over the past three seasons.

Injury update: The Packers have lost three starters to season-ending injuries: tight end Tucker Kraft (knee), center Elgton Jenkins (leg) and, most recently, defensive tackle Devonte Wyatt (ankle). They could get a boost from the return of receiver Jayden Reed, their leader in the past two seasons in catches and receiving yards. Reed hasn’t played since Week 2 because of collarbone and foot injuries.

Key to winning Sunday: The Packers have a top-10 run defense, but it will be tested mightily by the Bears’ running back duo of Monangai and Swift, who each rushed for more than 100 yards in last week’s win over the Eagles. Wyatt’s injury against the Lions won’t help, but the Packers will have to keep the Bears from running all over them. «It’s going to be a great challenge,» LaFleur said, «because they’re the best in the league right now in doing it.» — Rob Demovsky

What they’re saying: Packers WR Christian Watson on the magnitude of the Packers-Bears game: «It’s huge, it’s huge. I said it earlier in the week, it’s a chance for us to take the top spot in the NFC North, and that’s step one for us in terms of our goal for this season. So it’s big-time for us.»

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