Who should win the NFL’s MVP award? Barnwell tiers 15 candidates and makes his pick

If you disagree with the current frontrunner for the NFL’s Most Valuable Player award this season, just give it a week.

This season has been remarkably unpredictable across the board, and just as we haven’t seen a dominant team emerge, it’s hard to pinpoint a standout player as well. In the betting landscape, quarterbacks Drake Maye and Matthew Stafford are clearly the top two contenders for MVP, but there’s still ample time left in the season for a shift if another player heats up and propels his team to a division title or a high conference seed as the season progresses.

I usually refrain from discussing player awards between my midseason assessment in Week 9 and my end-of-season accolades following the regular season’s conclusion, but this MVP race is unique enough to warrant an early examination. I’m presenting this piece without a strong preference for the candidates. I believe we can construct a valid MVP argument for any of the top five contenders. Indeed, that’s precisely what I plan to do.

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This will serve as your thorough overview of the MVP race with four games remaining. I’ll evaluate 10 candidates who currently fall short, highlight three others who deserve serious attention, and then analyze the two frontrunners. While the focus is on who should win rather than who will win, I’ll also share my prediction for who will ultimately secure the league’s premier individual accolade in a couple of months.

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10 second-tier candidates
Five top-tier candidates
Barnwell’s current MVP selection

Just missing out

A multitude of plausible candidates are not part of the conversation this year. Lamar Jackson and Joe Burrow consistently enter the race, yet both have been sidelined by injuries and have not achieved enough success on the field. A surge of late-season turnovers — including five in a nationally televised game against the Chargers — eliminates Jalen Hurts from contention. Furthermore, with Daniel Jones suffering an Achilles injury last week, his dwindling MVP aspirations are clearly dashed.

Baker Mayfield started strong, garnering attention from a series of dramatic comeback victories, but his production has since faltered. Caleb Williams pulled out some late wins until last week’s defeat against the Packers; however, he also ranks last in the NFL for completion percentage over expectation (CPOE), per NFL Next Gen Stats, and many of those comeback wins were not primarily attributed to the second-year quarterback. (Williams only completed one pass for 6 yards during his two comeback drives against the Commanders and Vikings this season.)

For non-quarterbacks, the standard is exceedingly high, necessitating a near-perfect season, which undermines candidates like receiver Puka Nacua, who has been hindered by injuries. Running back Bijan Robinson has dazzled with big plays, yet he has encountered problems with fumbles and pass protection while playing on a non-competitive team. Meanwhile, edge rusher Micah Parsons has shown promise but hasn’t consistently put up staggering statistics. Winning the award as an edge rusher would require both superior performance and significant counting stats.

I have 15 candidates warranting closer examination. In my view, there are five players in Tier 1 — individuals who have a plausible claim to the title of the most valuable player in football without needing to significantly enhance their game over the final month of the season. There are also 10 candidates in Tier 2 just below them — players who deserve serious consideration but would require a substantial breakout performance and a successful team finish to have a legitimate chance at the award.

I’ll begin with those second-tier candidates. These are listed with no specific ranking, but I want to highlight the individual I had pegged as the MVP during the first half of the season.

Patrick Mahomes, QB, Kansas City Chiefs

Mahomes was a contentious choice at the season’s midpoint, largely due to the Chiefs’ 5-4 record. He wasn’t the frontrunner in any singular category, yet consistently ranked among the league leaders in numerous metrics, essentially matching Maye for the league lead in cumulative EPA and showcasing considerable value with his scrambling ability. He also led the offense more significantly than other candidates with superior rate stats. While I wouldn’t criticize anyone for favoring Maye or Stafford, I found myself marginally leaning towards Mahomes.

However, with the Chiefs at 6-7, Mahomes must indisputably be the best quarterback in the league this season to compensate for his team’s record. That has not materialized. The future Hall of Famer has delivered impressive games, including a four-touchdown display in a narrow loss to the Cowboys, but the recent loss to the Texans represented the third-poorest start of Mahomes’ career per Total QBR (19.6).

Mahomes currently ranks fourth in Total QBR, a metric that does not penalize him for one of the league’s worst drop rates and acknowledges his effectiveness as a scrambler, yet he can’t authentically compete with the elite tier of MVP candidates. It would need a stretch of four nearly flawless games along with a miraculous wild card run for the Chiefs to reinstate Mahomes in the MVP conversation. And while that’s always a possibility, it is significantly more probable that the Chiefs will perhaps miss the playoffs for the first time in Mahomes’ tenure.

Josh Allen, QB, Buffalo Bills

Let’s also address another future Hall of Famer and the reigning MVP. Allen is obviously still capable of leading the entire Bills offense in games when they need a standout performance, as showcased in Sunday’s comeback against the Bengals. Few quarterbacks shoulder as much responsibility to make their offenses function as Allen does, especially with one of the league’s less impressive receiving corps and being frequently called upon as a rushing threat in short-yardage and third-/fourth-down situations.

If tasked with selecting the best player in football for a single game, I’d likely choose Allen based on his cumulative performance over recent seasons. However, this season, his stellar run of avoiding negative plays has ended. Allen’s interception rate has nearly doubled, climbing from 1.2% last season to 2.6% this season. In 2024, Allen recorded a 2.8% sack rate, an astonishingly low figure for a quarterback known for extending plays. This season, that rate has nearly tripled to 7.6%.

These negative plays have been consequential. Allen has committed two turnovers in each of the Bills’ four defeats, including the 23-20 loss against the Patriots that resulted in New England taking the top spot in the AFC East. Buffalo has only managed to win a single multi-turnover game with Allen this season, that being the 44-32 triumph over the Buccaneers where Allen accounted for six touchdowns.

Allen has been slightly more dynamic, averaging what would be a career-best 8.2 yards per pass, and has played crucial roles in memorable comeback victories over the Bengals and Ravens (in addition to outdueling Mahomes in another regular-season win against the Chiefs). Yet, in 2024, Allen was incredibly explosive while also avoiding negative plays better than any quarterback in NFL history. It’s tougher to build that case for this season. However, if the Bills can mount a late resurgence to capture the division title through Allen, he can never be counted out of the race.

Jahmyr Gibbs, RB, Detroit Lions

Gibbs might be the most entertaining player to watch in football right now. Similar to Allen, he delivers performances with moments that seem to defy anyone’s ability to tackle or impede him, exemplified by his 264-yard, three-touchdown outing against the Giants earlier this season. Gibbs is currently averaging 5.7 yards per carry and 1.9 yards per route run, both of which rank among the top three for eligible backs. This is being accomplished with a less formidable offensive line than the Lions have typically maintained in past seasons, placing greater burden on Gibbs to create opportunities.

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A running back must produce something extraordinary to secure MVP honors, and while Gibbs has shown he can be that player at his peak, he has only tallied three 100-yard games on the ground this season. The Lions are methodical in managing their star back’s touches to preserve him, which limits the cumulative impact Gibbs can deliver without breaking off a lengthy touchdown run, ultimately affecting his MVP candidacy.

Gibbs’ team also finds itself on the playoff fringe at 8-5, and while he isn’t primarily to blame for those five losses, he has notably struggled in pass-blocking scenarios at times. Most significantly, he faced significant challenges in the Week 9 defeat to the Vikings, with Minnesota’s defensive coordinator Brian Flores repeatedly targeting him with blitz packages. For Gibbs to garner MVP attention, he would need to establish himself as the preeminent back in football, facing stiff competition from others who might present equally compelling arguments.

Christian McCaffrey, RB, San Francisco 49ers

The 49ers are 9-4, and with several of their key players missing for portions of the season, it’s only natural to want to honor the few recognizable names who have persevered. (I’d give credit to the coaching staff, particularly Kyle Shanahan and Robert Saleh, for ensuring the Niners remain competitive despite injuries.)

McCaffrey has been one of those key players, and serving as the centerpiece of the offense, he has amassed impressive statistics. CMC leads the league with 322 touches and is on track for a staggering 421 touches, the most for any player in a single season since 2014.

He is also on track to become the first player in NFL history to log two 1,000-1,000 seasons; McCaffrey is projected to finish with 1,110 rushing yards and 1,054 receiving yards. This is not far off from his 2023 figures, when a healthy McCaffrey achieved 2,023 total yards from scrimmage and 21 touchdowns, earning the league’s Offensive Player of the Year award.

The key difference lies in the volume. McCaffrey only needed 339 touches to surpass 2,000 yards in 2023, a mark he is expected to match this weekend with three games left. Currently, he is averaging just 3.6 yards per carry. Though we’ve seen players with high volume and average yards per carry earn MVP considerations, the last time that significantly happened was with Eddie George in 2000, a time when efficiency metrics were less scrutinized.

Jonathan Taylor, RB, Indianapolis Colts

Taylor emerges as a far more feasible MVP candidate compared to the backs I previously mentioned. He has been significantly more efficient as a runner than McCaffrey and serves as the focal point of a better offense than Gibbs’ in Detroit. Taylor has also scored 18 touchdowns, putting him on pace for an eye-popping 24. While I’m hesitant to overvalue touchdowns when they come from short yardage, Taylor has impressive long-distance scores of 23, 46, 80, and 83 yards.

As demonstrated with McCaffrey and even Saquon Barkley, a running back needs a record-breaking performance to be considered for MVP. The last back to achieve this was Adrian Peterson in 2012, who, while not setting a single-season record, surpassed 2,000 rushing yards, carrying a mediocre Minnesota team to an unexpected playoff appearance. Peterson’s late-season surge included four games with 150 rushing yards or more over the last five contests, sealing the MVP award.

Taylor has somewhat slowed down with the Colts’ offense in recent weeks, but if he can end the season with a flourish, he holds a plausible chance of drawing MVP attention. Four games of 150 yards would bring him close to 2,000 rushing yards, likely accompanied by multiple touchdowns as well. Succeeding without starting quarterback Daniel Jones would further bolster Taylor’s candidacy. If the Week 18 matchup against the Texans turns out to be for the division title, and Taylor excels against a top-tier defense to drive Indy into a home playoff game, he would stand a chance.

Jared Goff, QB, Detroit Lions

While I mentioned Gibbs as an option, Goff may also enter the conversation if he can finish the season strong. For entertainment’s sake, let’s compare Goff’s numbers with another player as we head into Week 15:

They were traded for each other before the 2021 season. Stafford boasts a better touchdown-to-interception ratio, undeniably, but Goff is completing a higher percentage of his passes, averaging more yards per attempt and generating slightly more EPA per dropback. Though Goff has solid playmakers, he is doing so amidst changes in coaching, with offensive duties shifting from Ben Johnson to Johnnie Morton and then Dan Campbell in Detroit.

By QBR, Stafford’s mark of 68.6 ranks fifth, while Goff’s 56.5 lies in the 16th spot. The difference can be attributed to several factors. Goff has been sacked on 6.2% of his dropbacks, while Stafford has faced only a 3.8% sack rate, equating to about six fewer sacks for Stafford in comparison to Goff. Additionally, the Lions average 6.6 yards after the catch per reception, the second-best rate in the league, while the Rams generate 4.6 (ranking 26th among starting quarterbacks).

It’s clear that if Stafford’s stats are roughly comparable to Goff’s and the Lions boast a higher YAC, Stafford’s throws are typically deeper downfield and carry a greater difficulty level. In fact, 12% of Stafford’s passes are thrown 20 or more yards downfield, nearly double Goff’s 6.8% rate. Goff is indeed a talented quarterback, yet there are evident reasons to believe Stafford has been the more valuable player this season, especially considering the differences in their team’s win totals.

Dak Prescott, QB, Dallas Cowboys

Goff’s QBR suggests he hasn’t been as impressive as his raw numbers might imply in 2025, but what about the league’s top performer according to ESPN’s preferred quarterback metric? Prescott’s 73.4 Total QBR surpasses even Maye’s and Stafford’s, and his +6.0% CPOE is the second-best mark across the league. Prescott has had George Pickens at his disposal throughout the season, but the veteran quarterback has often had to operate without usually reliable top target CeeDee Lamb and has still prospered. He has delivered remarkable performances, clinching victories in shootouts against the Giants, Commanders, and Chiefs, with a 319-yard, three-touchdown performance to earn a tie with the Packers.

Prescott was gaining more traction as MVP candidate while the Cowboys strung together a three-game winning streak post the trade for defensive tackle Quinnen Williams, which included two impressive nationally broadcast victories over the Raiders and Chiefs. (Though game time doesn’t influence my judgment on a player’s performance, it’s noteworthy how the Ravens’ humbling of the 49ers on Christmas in 2023 assisted in clearing a path for Lamar Jackson to clinch his second MVP.)

The loss to the Lions (again in prime time) halted Dallas’ winning streak, though, and its playoff chances now sit at 10%, according to ESPN’s Football Power Index, with four games remaining. It’s hard to envision Prescott taking home this award if the Cowboys fail to make the playoffs, and even if they do qualify, he would need to deliver something extraordinary along the way to surpass Stafford and Maye for the MVP honor. While this outcome seems unlikely, it’s still surprising to see the Cowboys fighting for postseason placement after starting 3-5-1.

Justin Herbert, QB, Los Angeles Chargers

The usual dark horse candidate poised to earn MVP attention, Herbert appeared to be on such a trajectory in September. Defeating the Chiefs in Brazil during the season opener with an almost flawless game raised expectations for Herbert’s candidacy in 2025. Although it hasn’t been entirely smooth since then, Herbert has guided the 9-4 Chargers toward what is likely another playoff appearance despite losing both starting offensive tackles and two starting running backs. He’s even achieved victories with a broken hand during December.

A highlight reel of Herbert’s passes consistently showcases his potential as the top quarterback in the league, yet negative plays have plagued him this season. While the 27-year-old has embraced scrambling and gained substantial value with his legs this year, Herbert’s sack rate has increased from 7.5% to almost 10% due to offensive line issues and his penchant for extending plays. Furthermore, after boasting a league-best interception rate of 0.6% in 2024, he has thrown 11 interceptions so far in 2025, an issue that is harder to attribute solely to the offensive line.

Bo Nix, QB, Denver Broncos

Interestingly, the quarterback leading the AFC West is not Herbert or Mahomes — it’s Nix, whose Broncos have won 10 consecutive games and currently sit atop the conference with four games left. Even Broncos fans might admit that the squad’s defense is driving Sean Payton’s team toward the top of the AFC standings, but Nix has come through when required. His 80.5 QBR in the fourth quarter when games are tied or when his team is down by one score ranks fifth in the NFL, and Nix has been integral to fourth-quarter comeback wins against the Eagles, Jets, Giants, and Texans this season.

One reason Nix has had to lead so many fourth-quarter comebacks is due to his play through the first three quarters. Nix ranks 17th in QBR during the initial 45 minutes of games. He generally maintains a low-risk, low-reward playing style. Nix has the league’s lowest sack rate, which is a significant advantage. However, even including the fourth quarter, he averages only 6.3 yards per pass attempt, placing him 28th out of 34 qualifying quarterbacks this season.

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On passes traveling 10 or more yards downfield, Nix’s off-target rate of 35.7% places him 32nd in the NFL, ahead of only Caleb Williams and Michael Penix Jr., his peers from the 2024 draft class. Additionally, he has been less productive as a runner this year compared to the last. Nix ranks 17th in the Total QBR, which is reasonable but I would argue that Denver’s strength stems from its overall performance at the line of scrimmage, boasting several Pro Bowl-caliber players on both offense (Quinn Meinerz, Garett Bolles) and defense (Nik Bonitto, Zach Allen).

Jaxon Smith-Njigba, WR, Seattle Seahawks

With Nacua sidelined by injuries, Smith-Njigba has distinguished himself as the most effective wide receiver. With four games remaining, Smith-Njigba is remarkably averaging 4.2 yards per route run, a figure that would mark the highest rate dating back to 2007 when ESPN began tracking routes. The only other wide receiver to achieve 4 yards per route run was Tyreek Hill in his 2023 season (4.0). Smith-Njigba is also second to Nacua in ESPN’s receiver scores.

JSN is blending remarkable efficiency with substantial volume. Averaging 109.8 receiving yards, he is positioned for the eighth-highest mark for any receiver since 2007, just ahead of the prime seasons of Justin Jefferson. While the Seahawks have added Rashid Shaheed and employed Cooper Kupp, there is no other receiver on the field attracting attention away from Smith-Njigba. Teams focus on stopping him each week — and most weeks, they fail.

If there is a rationale to discount his production, it could relate to the sources of his yardage: play-action, where defenses overload to halt the run, leaving vast gaps in coverage. Smith-Njigba is averaging — and this is not a mistake — 7 yards per route run off play-action. We’ve seen notable players like Andre Johnson, Steve Smith Sr., and Jordy Nelson surpass that figure before, yet Smith-Njigba’s Seahawks utilize play-action more frequently than previous offenses.

On standard dropbacks, Smith-Njigba maintains an average of 3.3 yards per route run. This remains a strong statistic, but is comfortably second to Nacua’s 4.0 yards per route run on dropback passes, which is the best for any receiver since 2007 as well. Of course, yards from play-action are equally valuable as those from standard situations, but it’s reasonable to assert that the Seahawks’ offensive strategy may assist in propelling Smith-Njigba’s astonishing efficiency.

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Smith-Njigba is having a remarkable season, yet there’s a specific benchmark any wide receiver needs to reach in order to capture MVP. I’m just unsure if it’s feasible for a wideout to secure this award unless they smash the league’s receiving record and surpass 2,000 yards. Smith-Njigba is on pace for 1,867 yards, meaning he would need to average 143 receiving yards per game during the last month to hit 2K.

Even then, that might not suffice for voters, considering Smith-Njigba has only nine touchdowns, and non-quarterback offensive players who have won typically have impressive touchdown totals. For now, Smith-Njigba lands just outside my top five.

The top five

I position Smith-Njigba’s quarterback just ahead of him. Darnold’s numbers are impressive. He tops the NFL in yards per attempt at 8.9 and sits second in CPOE at +5.9%, averaging 13.1 yards per completion. The average dropback for Darnold generates 8.3 yards, with only Maye close with 7.5 yards. Unlike Maye, Darnold is achieving this against a somewhat challenging schedule of opponents; Maye’s team-adjusted QBR is 2.3 points below his raw score, while Darnold’s adjusted figure surpasses his raw mark by one point.

Two primary concerns hinder him. Similar to Smith-Njigba, Darnold has been an entirely different player in play-action situations vs. standard dropbacks. He averages 12.7 yards per attempt when employing play-fakes, which is unsurprisingly the league’s best stat. However, his 7.6 yards per attempt without play-action ranks fourth in the league, still solid but highlighting Darnold’s lesser efficiency in a standard dropback context.

The other issue is that Darnold’s negative plays are often catastrophic. We will discuss Maye’s lower sack rate later, but not all sacks carry the same weight. Darnold has thrown 11 interceptions, granting him the fifth-worst interception rate in the league. His sack rate (4.5%) is above average, yet six of the 17 sacks he’s taken have resulted in strip-sacks, including the lost fumble that cost the Seahawks the game against the 49ers and a fumble in the end zone for a touchdown against the Texans.

The average detrimental play for Darnold carries an EPA loss of -0.9 points per snap, which ranks as the third-worst among regular starters. Each sack typically costs -2.0 EPA. Although Maye has taken 40 sacks compared to Darnold’s 17, the overall effect of those sacks is relatively similar; Maye’s have led to the Patriots suffering a loss of 45.2 points in EPA against Darnold’s 32.5 points with the Seahawks.

And then there’s Darnold’s game against the Rams. While I don’t want to reduce MVP candidacy to a single game, it’s hard to overlook Darnold’s four interceptions during a crucial matchup for his team and still regard him as a plausible MVP candidate. It’s uncertain if Darnold has fully recovered from that performance; he now ranks 24th in Total QBR over the last three games. The 28-year-old may be slipping out of this race, but if he can deliver a stellar performance in the upcoming rematch against the Rams and lead the Seahawks to the 1-seed in the NFC, he may regain consideration.

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In discussing several non-quarterbacks, I’ve repeated the notion that they would need to set records to contend for MVP honors. While it is conceivable that Taylor or Smith-Njigba could catch fire as the season wraps up, presently, none are on pace to break those respective rushing and receiving records.

However, Garrett stands on track for a record, boasting 20 sacks in 13 games, outpacing everyone else by seven. That places the Browns star on the trajectory for a staggering 26 sacks, shattering the NFL’s single-season sack record of 22.5 set by Michael Strahan in 2001 and later matched by T.J. Watt in 2021. While both Watt and Garrett benefit from the 17th game, Garrett’s performance enables him to potentially erase that record with games to spare.

Historically, no player had accumulated 20 sacks through the first 13 games before Garrett, with Aldon Smith’s 19.5 sacks in 2012 and Bruce Smith’s 19 in 1990 being the best prior records in that span. Strahan recorded 21.5 sacks in a 13-game stretch during his record-breaking year, placing Garrett in exceptionally elite territory among pass rushers.

Garrett is also displaying dominance as a run defender, ranking second in the league behind Maxx Crosby with 12 tackles for loss against the run. In total tackles for loss, Garrett amasses 31, a remarkable lead over the second-highest total; only Crosby exceeds 18 during the season thus far.

The Browns are ranked third in the league for EPA per play, and while the overall performance of Jim Schwartz’s defense excites, it’s noteworthy to see other Browns defenders rising to prominence. Journeyman defensive tackle Maliek Collins was experiencing a career-best season with 6.5 sacks and 13 knockdowns before suffering a season-ending quad injury. Defensive end Alex Wright, once a backup in his first three years with Cleveland, has performed well enough to secure a three-year, $33 million contract extension. Second-round pick Carson Schwesinger stands third in tackles for loss against the run and is my choice for Defensive Rookie of the Year. Linebacker Devin Bush is having his best performance to date. These players benefit from the focal presence and attention that Garrett draws.

Yet there’s a significant hurdle: the Browns are struggling. At 3-10, their point differential indicates they resemble a 4.3-win team. While no one blames Garrett for the team’s struggles, achieving MVP as a non-quarterback necessitates being part of a winning team. Quarterbacks on underperforming teams seldom contend for MVP accolades — let alone other positions that must confront inherent visibility challenges.

However, since this is my ranking system, I can choose as I see fit. Garrett has been arguably the top player in football this season, and alongside kicker Brandon Aubrey, has outshined the competition at his position significantly. He may not be a quarterback, but edge rusher is the second most valuable position in football. While the Browns are underperforming with Garrett, they would undoubtedly be vastly worse without him, possibly the reason Cleveland granted the 2027 first overall pick a record contract rather than trading him in the offseason.

Considering the reality of winning the actual MVP award? A stunning, almost near-impossible series of events would be required. The quarterbacks currently leading the charge, notably Maye and Stafford, would need to falter in the remaining weeks. We’d also require a muddled pool of quarterback options, with several players contending for votes but lacking consensus support.

Moreover, we’d need something truly unprecedented from Garrett. Setting the sack record on a subpar team won’t suffice. Garrett must obliterate that record. With four games remaining, achieving 30 sacks isn’t out of the question. Could he surpass 30 and exceed the previous sack record by ten? Even then, a total of 32.5 sacks might not fulfill the criteria. If Garrett can gather 15 additional sacks throughout the final four games and reach 35, such a staggering figure might overshadow the team’s poor record.

Is that implausible? Historically, no player has amassed 15 sacks in a four-game stretch in NFL history. The only individual to exceed 11 sacks within a four-game period? That’s right, it’s Garrett, who accomplished 13 between Weeks 8 and 12 earlier this season. More realistically, he’ll need to settle for the most significant pass-rushing season in league history.

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A recently circulated and widely discussed statistic within the football analytics community highlights the Packers’ quarterback. Do you know who leads the league in EPA per dropback? It’s not Stafford (fifth) or Maye (third). It’s Love, whose 0.36 EPA per dropback surpasses all competitors. No other player exceeds 0.22 in that metric with second-place Goff being closer to C.J. Stroud in 13th than he is to Love’s top rank.

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We can certainly evaluate Love’s number critically, but it’s clear he isn’t simply a product of a dominant team offense. The Packers notably lack a primary receiver, and the player Love relied on to fill that role earlier this season—tight end Tucker Kraft—is out due to a torn ACL. Their running game, led by Josh Jacobs, has regressed in 2025, with the Packers standing 14th in the league for EPA per play on designed runs. The offensive line has faced injuries and inconsistent performances throughout the season, with their preferred first five lineup only taking 64 snaps together all year.

Love’s driving the passing game. So what explains his high rating? He rarely suffers from negative outcomes when dropping back. Through 13 games, he has thrown just four interceptions and lost two fumbles, which translates to the fewest turnovers by any quarterback who has started each of his team’s games this season. His 4.5% sack rate ranks sixth best. Plus, Love produces EPA at an above-average rate on scrambles, accumulating 163 yards and 11 first downs for the Packers.

When Love throws, he performs well, although not quite at the same elite level as other quarterbacks in the rankings. He stands seventh in yards per attempt and tenth in success rate. ESPN also employs a metric called adjusted completion percentage which takes into account drops and throwaways while weighing accuracy based on air yards. Love’s adjusted completion percentage, at 74.9%, puts him second in the league. Yet, he navigates this without a receiver of Nacua’s or Smith-Njigba’s caliber, who consistently snags balls and dominates opposing defensive backs.

So, where does the discrepancy between Love’s statistics and public perception arise? The interceptions he has thrown have been rather glaring. Love was caught off guard for a pick at an inopportune moment during the early-season loss to the Browns. A throw tossed into triple coverage during the loss to the Panthers wasn’t close to completion. C.J. Gardner-Johnson could have signaled for a fair catch when he intercepted Love in the first quarter of last week’s win over the Bears. The misses have not been pretty.

Moreover, Love may not even be the main engine of the offense. While the Packers have adjusted their approach somewhat, they were the most run-heavy team on early downs in neutral game scripts last season after Love returned from his knee injury. This year, the Packers are passing at the 10th-lowest frequency in those same situations. Stafford and Maye are helming two of the league’s most pass-friendly offenses, with the Rams and Patriots sitting second and sixth, respectively, by that value.

Love has thrown as many passes as Maye, but Maye has been marginally more productive across various metrics. This success has come against an easier slate of opponents, yet similar to Love, Maye has also lacked a true primary receiver throughout the season. Should the Packers manage to excel and secure support from the West to finish as the NFC’s top seed, Love would undoubtedly be a worthy MVP candidate. For now, he occupies my just-below top two spot.

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Let’s examine the top two candidates together. Stafford emerged as the favorite after an impressive performance against the Bucs in prime time three weeks ago; however, a disappointing two-interception outing against the Panthers disrupted his impressive streak of touchdowns without an interception and opened the door for Maye to close in. Stafford regained form with a solid 281-yard, three-touchdown showing against the Cardinals while Maye was on a bye, pushing Stafford ahead for the moment, yet competition is expected to intensify in the final four weeks.

Let’s agree on some common points. Maye is facing a lighter schedule. When adjusting for strength of opponents, Stafford has faced a generally average set of teams. The only quarterback whose opposition adjustment by QBR exceeds Maye’s is Spencer Rattler, while Goff and Nix follow closely behind Maye. Adjusting for opponents isn’t everything — Stafford had arguably his poorest outing of the season against the Panthers, an average pass defense — but one would typically prefer to face the Jets and Bengals over the Seahawks and Eagles.

On the flip side, Stafford has superior receivers. I’ve previously highlighted Stefon Diggs and his outstanding season in 2025, yet the Patriots are deploying him on only 55% of the offensive snaps. In contrast, Davante Adams plays 72% of Los Angeles’ snaps, while injuries and time management have restricted Nacua to 64% of the Rams’ offensive time.

Sean McVay is not oblivious, of course; Stafford has had only 32 dropbacks this season without either of his top receivers on the field. He boasts an 83.0 Total QBR on those plays, going 21-of-31 for 280 yards and three touchdowns. Consequently, if you’re a Patriots fan hoping to argue that Stafford has been elevated by his receivers, it’s important to keep that isolated sample in mind. Overall, though, most observers would concur that Stafford has access to the best receiving corps among both teams.

Stafford’s case is built on three points. One is entirely qualitative: This is likely his last chance at this prestigious award. The notion of awarding Stafford a lifetime achievement MVP title seems unjust to me. Throughout his career, he has never received a single MVP vote and has only been a Pro Bowler twice. While it’s often stated that he played on dreadful Lions teams, the narrative that he was restricted by poor defenses has been exaggerated. We already have a mechanism for lifetime achievement recognition: the Hall of Fame, to which Stafford will almost certainly be inducted.

Leaving that aside, Stafford’s impressive number has been his touchdown-to-interception ratio. Even following the uneven showing against the Panthers, Stafford has tossed 35 touchdowns against just four interceptions. This represents one of the best ratios observed in NFL history. Seven quarterbacks wrapped up a season with a better touchdown-to-interception ratio, and three of them (Tom Brady in 2010, Aaron Rodgers in 2020 and 2021) have won MVP. While I have the utmost respect for Nick Foles’ remarkable stretch of 27 touchdowns to two interceptions during a surreal period with Chip Kelly in Philadelphia, Stafford’s performance reflects a similar caliber to those aforementioned players rather than those who fell short.

Is the touchdown-to-interception ratio a definitive measure of quarterback performance? It’s acceptable, but not all touchdowns hold equal weight. While the objective of every drive is to reach the end zone, a significant proportion of Stafford’s scoring plays are shallow throws to Adams, who is nearly impossible to cover in tight situations. Stafford has carved out 14 touchdowns from the 5-yard line and in, which comfortably leads the league.

However, history shows that this does not disqualify quarterbacks from MVP awards in prior seasons. Rodgers threw 20 touchdowns from within the 5 in 2020, while Peyton Manning delivered 18 during his 2013 campaign. Mahomes accounted for 17 similar scores from short distances in 2022. I maintain that these types of totals arise partly from a coaching choice to utilize the pass in short situations and I’m considering that in my own evaluation, but it’s uncertain whether this factor will weigh against him in the final vote.

Stafford additionally registers a superior sack rate compared to his counterpart in New England. Stafford’s sack rate stands at 3.8%, ranking among the top marks in the NFL, while Maye’s at 9.4% ranks among the lowest. Each quarterback has fumbled six times, but Stafford’s two fumbles have occurred due to poor exchanges, whereas all six of Maye’s fumbles resulted from runs or strip-sacks. Maye has accumulated six interceptions, and their timing has not been favorable; he has thrown two interceptions at the goal line, contributing to the Patriots’ struggles in a September defeat against the Steelers.

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As I noted earlier, Maye has excelled in minimizing the adverse effects of his sacks. Maye’s average sack results in a loss of only 4.5 yards, whereas Stafford’s sacks have cost the Rams 6.8 yards, slightly above the league average. Undoubtedly, it’s preferable for quarterbacks to avoid getting sacked altogether, but shorter losses help bridge some gaps in their respective sack rates.

The challenge for Stafford is that Maye has generally outperformed everywhere else. Maye leads in the majority of additional performance categories:

• Maye averages 8.8 yards per attempt, second-best in the league, while Stafford’s 7.8 yards per throw ranks eighth. While sack losses lessen the gap between them, Maye still outpaces Stafford in yards per dropback (7.5 for Maye versus 7.2 for Stafford).

• Maye greatly surpasses what an average quarterback achieves in similar situations, with a +8.2% CPOE being the top mark in the NFL. Conversely, while Stafford performs well, his +2.6% CPOE ranks just 11th. Maye leads the league in completion rate while also throwing the fifth-deepest average pass. Stafford is not far behind in air yards per attempt but resides in 12th for completion percentage.

• Returning to adjusted completion percentage, which removes drops and throwaways while adjusting for air yards, Maye’s adjusted completion percentage of 78.5% is the best in the league. (Stafford’s 70.7% mark ranks 11th.) The last player with a better adjusted completion percentage for a single season since 2007 was Drew Brees, who achieved a 79.1% in 2019.

• The equity in play-action arguments I previously made also harms Stafford’s case, considering Maye employs play-action a league-high 35.3% of the time. While employing play-action is not inherently wrong, the “effective offensive architecture” argument which detracts from Darnold’s production off play-action should also apply to the player benefitting most from it. In contrast, Maye’s 26.1% play-action rate is just above the league average. Stripping play-action from the scenario, Maye’s 8.4 yards per attempt comfortably leads the league, with no other quarterback surpassing 8 yards per throw. Stafford’s 7.5 yards per attempt ranks sixth.

• Although Stafford has exhibited prowess as a pocket passer, excluding one designed run McVay implements once a season to confuse opposing coordinators, he hasn’t contributed with his legs. Discounting kneel-downs, Stafford’s eight carries have yielded a mere 11 yards. Maye has generated significant rushing contributions, collecting 340 yards, 2 touchdowns, and 26 first downs from 64 rushing attempts. Other quarterbacks might have displayed more efficiency, thus, while Maye’s 9.2 cumulative rushing EPA ranks only 17th in the league, that serves as another differentiation from Stafford.

In summary, Maye has posted a cumulative 101.3 EPA versus Stafford’s 75.6 this season, necessitating only 23 more dropbacks to achieve his mark. Although EPA is not the sole indicator of success in football, Maye vastly outperforms Stafford across almost all rate statistics, including Total QBR (where he ranks third just behind Prescott and Love, while Stafford is in fifth). While EPA does not account for opponent quality, Total QBR does reflect the competition each has faced throughout the season.

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Again, I wouldn’t be surprised if the voters select Stafford or even Love, both of whom are reasonable MVP contenders. They likely won’t choose Garrett, and Darnold’s disappointing outing against the Rams might disqualify him from contention, but I consider them all viable choices. This isn’t a season defined by one exceptional player or team standing out among the rest.

However, as I delved deeper into the arguments for both Stafford and Maye, I found myself more favorably inclined toward the sophomore quarterback in New England. While I’m aware that Stafford is favored to win the actual MVP award, Maye has demonstrated superior quarterbacking performance — more convincingly than I initially perceived in various metrics. I’ll revisit this discussion in four weeks, but for now, Maye is my MVP choice through Week 14.