Week 15 betting guide: Why Drake Maye, Lamar Jackson could hit passing overs

Value is integral, regardless of where or how it’s identified. Our goal each week is to uncover that value.

Ben Solak, Seth Walder, and Matt Bowen provide diverse insights into their approaches to sports betting. Solak utilizes his player evaluation acumen and tactical knowledge to identify advantages, Walder employs statistical analytics to highlight bets with anticipated value, while Bowen, a former NFL safety, assesses matchups and potential outcomes through film analysis and his league insights.

This weekly selection will encompass various wager types. Whether it’s spreads and moneylines or totals and defensive player props, opportunity can arise from anywhere.

Performance will be monitored throughout the season, with standardized one-unit stakes for each wager listed.

Now, let’s explore Week 15.

Note: Odds provided by DraftKings Sportsbook. Defensive prop bets will be included as they become available.

Jump to:
Game bets | Defensive props | Offensive props

Game bets

Cincinnati Bengals (+124) vs. Baltimore Ravens

Solak: In divisional rematches, I typically favor the team that suffered defeat in the previous encounter (in this instance, the Ravens) to triumph in the next game. This is especially true when the earlier loss was influenced by uncontrollable factors, such as the Ravens’ five turnovers in their 32-14 Thanksgiving Day defeat to the Bengals.

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However, this matchup poses challenges for Baltimore. Since Week 9, their defense ranks first in EPA per designed run but sits 14th in EPA per dropback. The Bengals primarily aim for a higher dropback frequency. While Tee Higgins may be sidelined due to a concussion, the Ravens have struggled to contain Ja’Marr Chase, who has exceeded 100 receiving yards in each of his last three encounters with Baltimore.

Recently, the Bengals’ offense has shown improvement, evidenced by their performance against the Buffalo Bills, who managed just 11 points at halftime and required 14 points off turnovers to secure a comfortable lead in the final quarter. I have reservations about the Ravens’ offense during critical late-game situations; their dropback passing attack is erratic, and their pass protection remains subpar, leading even the Bengals to produce significant pressures.

Cleveland Browns +7.5 vs. Chicago Bears (-112)

Solak: Sunday’s game at Soldier Field is expected to be harsh, with temperatures dipping into the single digits and «feels like» readings well below zero due to strong winds. The Bears are inclined to implement their potent ground game, but they face the league’s top-ranked run defense in Cleveland. In their recent matchups with NFC contenders (Philadelphia and Green Bay), the Bears encountered two below-average run defenses, making this game a real test of their running prowess.

Rome Odunze has returned to practice with restrictions and is critical for Sunday, as he’s quarterback Caleb Williams’ preferred target against man coverage. The Browns typically employ man coverage at a high frequency, and Williams performs worse against it (0.03 EPA per dropback) compared to zone (0.11 EPA per dropback). If Odunze is limited, it will severely hinder the Bears’ passing attack.

Cleveland’s offense has comfortably improved under Shedeur Sanders, compared to Dillon Gabriel’s tenure, and the Bears’ struggles to consistently apply pressure should offer Sanders the protection needed to avoid his common pitfalls as a passer. Expect rookie running back Quinshon Judkins, who has showcased solid performances, to facilitate prolonged drives with his robust running style. Given the anticipated run-heavy, low-scoring nature of this contest, I foresee the Browns remaining within a touchdown.

Tennessee Titans at San Francisco 49ers OVER 44.5 (-110)

Solak: The Titans’ pass defense has deteriorated during the latter half of the season. Recently, they allowed 30 points to the Seahawks in just three quarters of productive play, 25 to the Jaguars in the same duration, and 29 to the Browns (along with 364 passing yards to Shedeur Sanders). Now, they face a 49ers offense that returns from a much-needed bye week, which should help them score over 30 points in three quarters.

Cam Ward has been greatly impacted by pressure this season, with a large disparity between his EPA per dropback when pressured versus when he isn’t—the 13th-highest among starting quarterbacks.

Last week, the Titans discovered some explosiveness in their running game against the Browns, and I anticipate this trend to continue against a 49ers’ defense that mainly relies on four-man fronts. An above-average performance from the Titans’ offense, combined with the firepower of the 49ers, makes it likely that the total points exceed 45.

Green Bay Packers -2.5 at Denver Broncos (-110)

Solak: Denver faces a tough match against Green Bay’s defense. The Packers operate zone coverage at the fourth-highest rate in the league, and Bo Nix has struggled against zone defense this season. His completion percentage against man coverage exceeds expectation by 4%, but against zone, it falls 6.6% below expectation. Consequently, his success rate drops from 51% to 42%, while his EPA per dropback plummets from 0.24 to 0.03.

The Broncos wish to establish a run game early to induce more aggressive pressures from the Packers, but with J.K. Dobbins out, they have nearly abandoned running plays. In the last month, Denver has a 6.0% rate of passing above expectation—leading the NFL—and runs have been called on only 26.4% of their plays. RB RJ Harvey had a solid outing against the Raiders’ defense, but it remains uncertain if he has secured the coaching staff’s trust in a critical scenario like this.

I’m leaning towards Nix’s passing unders, but with the increased pass rate, he might succeed in garbage time. Accordingly, I’ll lean towards the spread; Green Bay’s receiving corps is healthier with Christian Watson and Jayden Reed back in action. Provided that Jordan Love withstands the Broncos’ pass rush, his receivers possess the skill to outperform against Denver’s secondary.

Cleveland Browns at Chicago Bears UNDER 38.5 (-105)

Bowen: It’s forecasted to be brutally cold at Soldier Field on Sunday. Both teams rely on strong running games, and this matchup will focus on the ground. I recommend taking the under.

Two-team, 6-point teaser (-120): Los Angeles Chargers +11.5 at Kansas City Chiefs and Detroit Lions +12 at Los Angeles Rams

Bowen: The Chargers rank in the top 10 for points allowed and passing yards allowed per game, with favorable perimeter matchups for Justin Herbert. With the line moved to +11.5 points, I favor the Chargers to cover. Meanwhile, Matthew Stafford and the Rams will effectively move the ball, and while their run defense is formidable, Detroit has the playmakers to capitalize on big plays against Los Angeles’ secondary. Expect Dan Campbell’s team to cover the adjusted spread.

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Seth Walder’s defensive props

Coming soon

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Offensive player props

Caleb Williams OVER 16.5 rushing yards (-108)

Bowen: Williams has surpassed 21 rushing yards in four of his last six games. A natural athlete capable of evading pressure on the edges, Williams will frequently need to escape the pocket against Myles Garrett and the Browns’ defensive unit.

Drake Maye 250-plus yards passing (+131)

Bowen: Let’s add some excitement to Maye’s performance, as he has thrown for 250 or more yards in his last six outings. If we reference the matchup against the Bills in Week 5, Maye recorded 273 yards. The Patriots should find strategies to counter the Bills’ core zone coverages.

Darius Slayton 40-plus receiving yards (+117)

Bowen: Slayton has exceeded the 40-yard receiving threshold in three of his last four games, consistently making explosive plays (20 or more yards) in each contest. He also faces an advantageous matchup against the Commanders’ defensive alignment.

Juwan Johnson OVER 36.5 receiving yards (-113)

Bowen: Johnson has recorded at least 37 receiving yards in four consecutive games, including a season-high 92 yards in the Week 10 game against these Carolina Panthers. He serves as a reliable short-target for rookie quarterback Tyler Shough and possesses deep-threat capabilities. Expect the over to hit against Carolina on the turf in New Orleans on Sunday.

Kenny Pickett UNDER 185.5 passing yards (-115)

Bowen: Pickett is expected to start for the injured Geno Smith on Sunday in Philadelphia. Given that, anticipate a high volume of quick passes against an Eagles secondary adept at coverage. Moreover, expect second-level pressure from Vic Fangio, which may hasten Pickett’s decision-making and contribute to the under.

Kyle Monangai Anytime TD (+130)

Bowen: Monangai has found the end zone in four of his last five contests and recorded 12 goal-to-go rush attempts this season. Let’s wager on Monangai’s utilization in the red zone against Cleveland.

J.J. McCarthy 34-plus pass attempts (+280)

Walder: It may seem daunting to endorse the notion that the Minnesota Vikings might opt to rely on McCarthy to throw the ball this frequently, but outside factors can significantly influence a team’s passing strategy.

In this scenario, two crucial reasons come to mind. First, the Dallas defense has a reputation for inducing passing plays, contrary to their pre-Quinnen Williams standing as a run defensive unit, holding the seventh-highest allowed pass rate over expectation. Secondly, the Vikings are 5.5-point underdogs, suggesting that they might be forced to abandon a ground game in response to the score.

Furthermore, while I remain cautious about McCarthy’s consistency, he is coming off one of his better performances (despite it being against a less formidable Commanders’ defense). My model favors McCarthy’s overs across the board, finding the most value in this alternative line.

Kareem Hunt OVER 1.5 receptions (+111)

Walder: Throughout this season, I have highlighted two angles regarding receptions for running backs based on the opponent’s defensive strategy. Running backs record receptions 88% more often against zone coverage versus man, and they catch passes 75% more frequently when not facing a blitz.

The Chargers present a dual challenge—they employ zone coverage 71% of the time (the second highest) and blitz only 21% of the time (the fourth lowest). Therefore, I’m eager to support running back receptions against them, with Hunt being the prime candidate this week.

Lamar Jackson 34-plus pass attempts (+226)

Walder: The Cincinnati Bengals are the second-worst pass defense in the league, yielding 0.20 EPA per opponent dropback. This has been a key reason why teams frequently pass more against the Bengals. Their pass rate over expectation ranks fourth highest against them according to NFL Next Gen Stats, which is why my model supports Jackson’s over on this metric.

Additionally, the high total of 51.5 points for this game suggests a potential shootout with Joe Burrow as the opposing quarterback. Even if Baltimore is slightly favored, it’s by only two and a half points; should they find themselves behind, offensive coordinator Todd Monken will likely lean on Jackson’s arm.

Derrick Henry OVER 9.5 receiving yards (-114)

Solak: Henry has seen increased involvement in the passing game recently while playing against the Ravens. He has received at least two targets in four out of his last five games, and on the one occasion he did not—his last match against the Bengals—he secured his sole pass for a 44-yard gain. His enhanced usage in the passing game is a response to RB2 Justice Hill’s injuries, who remains on the injured reserve for this matchup, as well as Lamar Jackson’s limitations while scrambling.

Facing the Bengals, who allow a high volume of targets and receiving yards to running backs, I expect Henry to be targeted multiple times in the pass game. Given his ability to break off significant gains when he catches passes, the 9.5 receiving yard line seems quite favorable.

David Montgomery OVER 9.5 receiving yards (-111)

Solak: It’s evident that Jahmyr Gibbs has excelled in the receiving game during the last month, as Detroit has adapted to compensate for the absence of Sam LaPorta (and Gibbs’ struggles in pass protection). As Gibbs has transitioned more into a receiving role, Montgomery’s route share has decreased—recording nine routes in Week 13 against the Packers and seven in Week 14 against the Dallas Cowboys.

Yet, he has cleared this yardage total in both matchups. Jared Goff often favors Montgomery on early downs when facing zone coverage, which is a staple of the Los Angeles Rams’ defense. With the Lions entering as 6-point underdogs, expect Montgomery’s route count to rise, particularly if Detroit falls behind in the game.

I anticipate the Lions will prioritize quick throws to negate the Rams’ pass rush, resulting in increased targets for running backs, including Montgomery, instead of solely relying on Gibbs.

Tua Tagovailoa UNDER 29.5 passing attempts (-121)

Solak: Tagovailoa has attempted fewer than 24 passes in each of his last four games as the Dolphins have swung heavily towards a run-centric approach. These contests generally followed positive game scenarios, with Miami securing comfortable leads against the Steelers, Saints, and Jets. Therefore, Tagovailoa hasn’t been compelled to throw the football.

However, as 3-point underdogs while visiting Pittsburgh, it’s unlikely Miami will face the sort of significant second-half deficit that would increase Tagovailoa’s attempt numbers. Furthermore, with temperatures dropping into the teens and potential snow on Sunday, coach Mike McDaniel may be further motivated to limit Tagovailoa’s passing attempts, given his historical struggles in cold weather.

I contemplated between this line and under 199.5 total yards. The possibility of a significant yard gain from De’Von Achane or Jaylen Waddle poses a risk to the yardage prop; however, in cold and windy conditions, Tagovailoa might adopt a lower depth of target, which could further affect his attempts. I’ll balance my wager on both lines, but I’ll prioritize the passing attempts figure in this case.

James Cook III OVER 81.5 rushing yards (-114)

Solak: The formidable run defense of the New England Patriots has shown vulnerabilities in recent weeks. They’ve allowed opposing offenses to average over 5.0 yards per carry in three of their past four games, a stark contrast to their earlier performance in the season. Teams including the Tampa Bay Buccaneers, New York Jets, and Bengals achieved success rates exceeding 57% in their rushing attempts—something previously unattainable for any opponent in the first ten games against New England.

While the Bills did not dominate the run game in the first matchup, as Cook managed only 49 yards on 15 carries—one of his least productive outings—his role has expanded, and I expect them to emphasize the ground attack to keep Drake Maye and the Patriots’ offense off the field.

The main concern here revolves around the game script, as the erratic nature of the Bills always leaves room for poor first-half performances and trailing conditions in the second. I’m content to hold this bet and pair it with Josh Allen’s rushing overs later on, should the Patriots seize a significant lead in the first half. The Bills exhibit the third-highest passing rate over expectation when battling second-half deficits, and Allen’s scramble rate increases considerably under such scenarios.