NFL Week 16 buzz: What we’re hearing on Mahomes, Parsons, Rivers and playoff races

Insiders Jeremy Fowler and Dan Graziano have been calling sources around the NFL for the latest news and buzz on key situations heading into Week 16 of the 2025 season.

This week, we asked around on the aftermath of torn ACL injuries for Patrick Mahomes and Micah Parsons. What happens next for the two superstars and their respective teams? We also gathered intel on Philip Rivers, who is coming off his first start since 2020 and is set for another. Can the 44-year-old keep the Colts in the playoff hunt?

Speaking of the playoffs, Jeremy and Dan also leaned on their reporting to make big postseason-centric predictions. And lastly, they looked ahead to the offseason and named a few players who could be trade candidates in March. It’s all here, as our national reporters answer big questions and empty their notebooks heading into Week 16.

Jump to:
Mahomes/Parsons | Rivers
Playoff predictions | Trade watch

What are you hearing around the league on fallout from Patrick Mahomes’ injury?

Graziano: A few people suggested to me that missing the playoffs won’t be such a bad thing for the Chiefs, as it will force them to rethink their roster-building strategy around Mahomes. There’s a perception that the Chiefs have been kind of perpetually retooling and counting on Mahomes’ greatness to cover up their flaws and bail them out when things get dicey. Now, they basically have two extra months to focus on their offseason plans, and they hope to put them to good use.

Josh Simmons comes back healthy and they find a competent replacement for Jawaan Taylor, that group should be a strength in 2026. Tight end Travis Kelce has been on the way out for a while now, and him hanging it up would probably force them to reimagine some things about the offense. The Chiefs need to build a run game, which they didn’t do this season.

Mahomes will rehab, and they’ll probably go through the 2026 offseason program with some combination of a veteran backup quarterback and a younger developmental one. By the time Mahomes returns, the goal will be to have a roster that doesn’t need as many heroics from him as it has the past few seasons.

Fowler: The Chiefs were already forced to look in the mirror well before the Mahomes injury. If anything, his absence will remind Kansas City how much it will miss him — and how much it needs to strengthen the roster around him. Despite the pedestrian (for his standards) numbers, people I’ve talked to inside the league did not see Mahomes as the problem for the offense’s struggles. The way Mahomes got hurt, grinding for every inch on the field, was an example of just how much he had to manage to simply manufacture first downs this season.

«The fear factor with him is still thick,» one NFL coordinator who recently prepared for him said. «He’s still the best at winning differently each week. I still fear that player more than most. It just didn’t go their way this year.»

I expect the Chiefs’ roster to be vastly improved by the time Mahomes returns, which should be some time next season, though Week 1 feels awfully ambitious. He faces a lengthy nine-month recovery from a torn ACL and LCL, a timeline that threatens the early portion of the 2026 season. That he had the surgery so soon after the injury occurred was telling.

---

What about the aftermath of Micah Parsons’ injury?

b=»»>Graziano: I think people were taking the Packers very seriously as a Super Bowl contender and that the Parsons injury shifts that perception a bit. They are still well-coached, quarterback Jordan Love is playing great, the non-Parsons injuries they suffered Sunday in Denver don’t sound like they’ll be long term, and there’s plenty of talent left on defense. They still could make a run. But Parsons gave Green Bay something a team needs if it’s going to string together playoff wins — a finisher who can get the opposing quarterback on the ground in the game’s final minutes and close things.

Things will change for the Packers’ defense without Parsons. He elevated other parts of it, and teams will play them differently. They have enough to overcome it and still compete at a high level. But if you’re talking about beating, say, the Bears, Rams and Eagles in consecutive weeks on the road in January, that might be a lot to ask without their best player.

Fowler: This injury isn’t a referendum on the Cowboys-Packers trade. Parsons was worth every dollar to Green Bay, playing brilliantly before what can be classified as a fluke injury. Parsons’ explosiveness could suffer in 2026, when Green Bay will undoubtedly start him on a pitch count, but he’s 26 years old, so there’s no reason why he won’t resume his dominant play.

To your point, the Packers have one issue above all others: How will they close games? Luckily for Green Bay, it has quality pass rush depth with Rashan Gary, Lukas Van Ness, Kingsley Enagbare and others. And the Packers managed a top-six defense last season without Parsons. But he has been deadly in the fourth quarter with game-sealing playmaking. The Packers must get creative with their personnel to offset his loss.

---

What is the leaguewide buzz on Philip Rivers’ first start in five years?

Fowler: The overall feedback was that he was reasonably good, all things considered. «He played about as well as he could have,» an NFL offensive coach said. And that’s the challenge of playing a 44-year-old off the couch — «as well as he could have» equals 120 passing yards. And he had to strain for that 120. The football wasn’t exactly popping out of his right hand.

The Colts were never expecting fireworks from Rivers. But he ran a clean operation against an elite Seahawks defense on the road and seemed to get the Colts in the proper plays. He was ready to dirt the ball when pressure collapsed and made a few timely throws. That’s all Colts head coach Shane Steichen can ask at this stage. Driving the ball deep downfield will be a struggle, and I’m curious to see how he responds physically after back-to-back games. Do you have the Colts sneaking into the playoffs with Rivers?

Graziano: I do not, largely because of the way the teams in front of them are playing. The Jaguars and Texans have turned it on in the latter half of the season and look considerably better than the Colts right now. I understand what Indianapolis is trying to do with Rivers, and I’m hearing the same things you are about how pleased the Colts were with his ability to get them in and out of the right looks, change protections and all those things he needs to do to manage a game.

But it does not appear as if he will elevate them, and they’re going to need some help to get in — even if they can run the table. That won’t be easy, as they need to beat the 49ers this week and win their head-to-head matchups against the Jags and Texans to finish the regular season.

Playoff Machine »
&#8226 Playoff picture » | Standings » | More »

Fowler: The Colts know that Anthony Richardson Sr. had a prime opportunity taken away by an eye injury. He could have used this past month as a career springboard by potentially guiding Indy into the playoffs. «It sucks,» a team source said, citing Richardson’s positive training camp while battling Daniel Jones. Maybe Richardson can find his way into the lineup over the final one-two weeks. But Steichen sounds like a coach ready to ride this out with Rivers, for better or worse. The schedule is simply brutal. Indy’s last three opponents have a combined 29 wins, putting another losing season on the Colts’ radar … unless Rivers can stop their slide.

Graziano: I guess I wonder what happens if they finish the season under .500 and miss the playoffs again. Are people on the coaching staff and in the front office on the hot seat? Remember, Indianapolis is sort of under new ownership, as the late Jim Irsay’s daughters inherited the team following his passing prior to this season. I wonder at what point Carlie Irsay-Gordon will look to make changes.

It’s certainly possible the Daniel Jones and Richardson injuries buy people some grace — everyone knows this Rivers experiment is a Hail Mary and miles removed from their best-case scenario. But the Colts have gone longer without winning the AFC South than any other team in the division, and it doesn’t look like that will change this season.

---

Make your best playoff-related prediction.

Graziano: The Bills will win the AFC. We still don’t know yet whether they’re going to the playoffs as a wild-card team or as division champs for the sixth year in a row (or at all, technically). But assuming they’re there, they would certainly be the most playoff-tested of the likely AFC teams. Quarterback Josh Allen has 13 career postseason starts and seven wins, both of which would be the second highest in the current AFC field behind Aaron Rodgers’ 21 and 10, respectively. (This holds even if Rivers drags the Colts into the playoffs, as Rivers has 12 career postseason starts and five wins.)

Lamar Jackson has eight postseason starts and three wins, but right now Baltimore isn’t in the field — and if it gets there, that means Rodgers won’t. C.J. Stroud has four playoff starts and two wins, Trevor Lawrence has two and one, while Bo Nix and Justin Herbert have zero wins (Nix has one playoff start, Herbert two). The Bills are aware of the experience difference between them and the rest of the AFC field, and they would point out with no disrespect intended that we don’t know how teams such as the Patriots, Jaguars and Broncos are going to do in the playoff pressure cooker. The Bills feel pretty confident they know what it’s going to be like — even if they have to go on the road.

Fowler: Solid argument, Dan. Buffalo’s time might be now, even if Allen must will a Super Bowl berth into existence with heroic weekly outputs. Buffalo’s supporting cast is good but not great.

Staying with the AFC, give me the Texans for a Super Bowl run. They are 9-2 in their past 11 games. Stroud is back and playing good football. The defense might be the NFL’s most feared. Several teams I’ve talked to after playing Houston have talked at length about that muscle-bruising physical defense. The offensive line has settled down lately. And wide receiver Nico Collins can take over a game. Much will depend on their draw. If the regular season ended right now, the Texans would be in New England in the wild-card round. That’s a winnable game.

Also, I’ll say Mike Tomlin will get his first playoff win since 2016. The Steelers will win the AFC North and steal a wild-card game at home. They are flawed, but they have an identity built through their running game.

Graziano: In the NFC, I’m going with the Bears to win a game or two, especially if they can beat the Packers on Saturday. That will go a long way toward giving them the NFC North title and at least one home playoff game. When talking to Packers people before Sunday’s game in Denver, I came away believing they were extremely impressed with Ben Johnson’s bunch, whom the Packers beat in Green Bay the week before, and are certainly not overlooking the importance of this week’s rematch.

Chicago’s run game is outstanding, with the two-headed attack of D’Andre Swift and rookie Kyle Monangai. It could give the Bears an edge if they end up in close, low-scoring playoff games in the cold. And while quarterback Caleb Williams is still young and a bit of a wild card, he has come up big in some late-game spots already this season.

Fowler: As far as quick exits, Denver is on my radar despite its impressive push for the No. 1 seed. The AFC feels more open than in years past, and though the Broncos’ offense has improved in recent weeks, I still can’t shake that midseason lull it had in eking out wins against the Jets and Raiders.

Denver has a dominant defense which can overcome its inconsistent offense. And to his credit, Nix knows how to move an offense downfield. He finds a way, especially late in games. I’m just not sure Denver has enough firepower at the skill positions to keep getting by in January. I might look foolish for this take considering Denver seems to be peaking at the right time.

---

Who is the most interesting offseason trade candidate?

Fowler: I have several candidates, but let’s start with A.J. Brown. The weekly concerns about Brown’s messaging — from sonnets to soundbites — must be taxing on Philadelphia’s locker room, even if players understand the receiver’s frustration due to the limitations of the Eagles’ passing attack. Several executives I spoke to believe the Eagles could look to move Brown, who’s 28 and still has prime years left.

Download the ESPN app and enable Adam Schefter’s news alerts to receive push notifications for the latest updates first. Opt in by tapping the alerts bell in the top right corner. For more information, click here.

He would undoubtedly have a market. He’s due $50 million in cash over the next two years, which is manageable for a WR1. The Eagles would absorb a $20 million cap hit if he’s traded before June 1, or they could save $7 million on the cap by waiting until after June 1 to deal him. Either way, the Eagles have shown cap challenges won’t deter them (see: the Carson Wentz trade). And it seems that Brown would welcome a new passing game at this point.

Graziano: Mac Jones is under contract with the 49ers for next year at $2.8 million, but the way he played in relief of Brock Purdy this season has people wondering what it would take to trade for him (and presumably pay him more) to come in and compete for a starting role. There are plenty of teams with unsettled 2026 quarterback situations (Colts? Steelers?) which could look to a 27-year-old former first-round pick who has been through the Kyle Shanahan career rehab program as part of their potential solution.

Fowler: The quarterback trade market is worth watching, particularly with supply failing to meet the demand once again. Jones might be the next reclamation project QB to take off in a second act. This leads to a conversation on Kyler Murray, whom the Cardinals are subtly — or quite obviously — trying to stash in order to preserve his health for a potential trade this offseason. His nearly $37 million in guarantees on the 2026 books complicates his market, but Murray is 28 and isn’t far removed from fringe top-10-QB status.

Does a safe landing spot exist for Murray? Working with, say, Kevin O’Connell in Minnesota would be ideal, but J.J. McCarthy has shown improvement over the past two weeks. The Raiders and Jets are among teams which appear to be in transition at quarterback. Whether a team takes a chance on Murray’s maligned career — and gives up draft capital and financial resources to do it — remains to be seen.

Another name on my radar is Chiefs corner Trent McDuffie. The last Kansas City corner eyeing a big extension, L’Jarius Sneed, was shipped to Tennessee for a draft pick. McDuffie would have value, and Tampa Bay would be a perfect spot for him.

Graziano: The Chiefs always seem to let cornerbacks go when it’s time to pay big money, but a big reason they’ve been able to get away with that is that they always have a replacement ready to go — as McDuffie was when they traded Sneed, and like Sneed was when they moved on from Charvarius Ward. I’m not sure they have that heir apparent on the roster, unless they think it’s Joshua Williams or Jaylen Watson.

When the rubber hits the road with McDuffie, it’ll be interesting to see whether that pattern is a result of how they value the position or if it’s more about their confidence in drafting corners and Steve Spagnuolo’s ability to develop them. It’s also worth noting that Watson, Williams and safety Bryan Cook are all eligible for free agency after this season. The Chiefs have a lot of decisions to make about their secondary.