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André Snellings
Nikola Jokic injured his knee on Monday night and is expected to miss the next month, which has a profound impact on the NBA MVP race. In the short term, it narrows the field down to one huge favorite in Shai Gilgeous-Alexander. But in the long run, this trend of injuries could end up widening the field to include players previously not even in the hunt.
As of Nov. 13, there were five clear-cut favorites to win the NBA MVP: Gilgeous-Alexander, Victor Wembanyama, Jokic, Luka Doncic and Giannis Antetokounmpo.
On Nov. 14, Wembanyama injured his left calf and missed the next month. Players must play 65 game in the season to be eligible to win MVP, which means they can’t miss more than 17 games. Wembanyama hasn’t quite missed 17, but he is close enough that his MVP odds have decreased dramatically. After his injury, there were only four clear-cut MVP favorites.
On Dec. 3, Antetokounmpo suffered a soleus muscle strain in his calf that sidelined him for most of the month. Again, the missed games, in addition to the Bucks’ struggles in Antetokounmpos’ absence, decreased his MVP odds precipitously. At that point, there were three MVP favorites.
Now, after Jokic’s injury, there are two. According to DraftKings Sportsbook, Gilgeous Alexander is by-far the odds-on favorite to win MVP at -450, meaning one would have to bet 450 units on SGA to win 100. Doncic is the only other player whose odds are within shouting distance, at +370 (a 100 unit bet on Doncic would return 370 units). But after Doncic, the fall off to third-place and fourth-place is huge: Cade Cunningham (+5000) and Jalen Brunson (+6000).
Reaching 65 games could be a stretch for Luka
Now, consider that Doncic has already missed seven of the Lakers’ first 30 games, a pace that would net him just under 63 games on the season. This pace matches almost exactly his average pace over the last four seasons of 62.8 games per season.
Doncic played only 50 games last season. If Doncic continues on his current games-missed pace, he would also end up ineligible to win MVP this season.
Gilgeous-Alexander’s durability puts him clearly in front
If Doncic doesn’t reach the games threshold, it would leave only Gilgeous-Alexander as a viable MVP contender from among the five early season favorites.
Gilgeous-Alexander had trouble staying healthy earlier in his career, missing 25.7 games per season on average from 2020-21 through 2022-23. He has been largely healthy since, though, missing only 6.5 games per season on average the last two campaigns to finish second and first in those MVP votes.
This season, SGA has missed only one game, and with the attrition of the other top MVP candidates he looks very likely to win his second MVP award in the spring.
Longshots have a real chance if SGA misses extended time
If Gilgeous-Alexander were, for any reason, to miss extended time this season, the MVP race would suddenly go from a one-man race to wide open.
Players with odds of 50-1 or longer would suddenly become favorites themselves. And because of that, those with an interest in long-shot betting could find value in preemptively betting on those players.
Cunningham (50-1), Brunson (60-1), Jaylen Brown (100-1), Tyrese Maxey (100-1) and Anthony Edwards (500-1) are a single SGA extended absence away from becoming MVP frontrunners.
Final thoughts
At this moment, I fully expect Gilgeous-Alexander to hoist his second straight MVP award once the season ends. But just 48 hours ago, I fully expected Jokic to battle him tooth and nail for that award.
Things in the NBA can change in the blink of an eye, and it is worthwhile for futures betters to consider in advance the ramifications if those potential changes were to occur.
