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Matt Bowen
Betting the Super Bowl is challenging, even if you follow the league consistently. I get it. Examining personnel, offensive trends and the coverage or pressure schemes that can impact the final numbers is a lot — and it all matters.
However, there’s an easier path here when we focus solely on the quarterbacks in this matchup. New England Patriots QB Drake Maye is an MVP candidate. As is the Seattle Seahawks’ Sam Darnold. Both are former first-rounders, one thriving in just his second season, the other a veteran playing some of the best football of his career with his fifth team in eight seasons.
So, let’s break down the quarterbacks, starting with their respective skills and offensive systems, and lay out our best bets for both in Super Bowl LX.
Note: Super Bowl odds by DraftKings Sportsbook
and subject to change.
Drake Maye
Buzz: Biggest Super Bowl bets so far
• Early bets | Trends, updated odds
• Anytime touchdowns: Who will score?
• Bowen’s breakdown: How to bet QBs
• Seahawks favored over Patriots
Complete LX coverage | Betting home
Best bets for Maye
OVER 19.5 completions (-108)
The Seahawks are a heavy Cover 2 defense, playing it on league-high 33.1% of opponent dropbacks. That shell coverage limits vertical routes, but it also allows quarterbacks to take the throws that are available underneath. Maye averaged 20.8 completions this season, and he could be forced to throw with more volume if New England trails in the second half.
OVER 39.5 rushing yards (-114)
Maye rushed for 65 yards against Denver in the AFC Championship Game and has topped the 40-yard mark in three of his past four games. He plays with really good ball carrier vision when he breaks contain, and I believe he will need to make some difference-making plays as a runner to win critical moments versus this Seattle defense.
Anytime TD (+320)
Let’s take a shot here, given the juice at +320. Maye rushed for four touchdowns in the regular season, and he added another score in the AFC title game on a designed carry (QB draw). McDaniels can scheme for his quarterback in the low red zone area of the field. (Maye ranks 12th on Mike Clay’s list of most probable players to reach the end zone. Read the full story here.)
Sam Darnold
Jaxon Smith-Njigba. Plus, with Darnold’s mobility, he can get on the edges on boot concepts, and Kubiak will also set up his quarterback for vertical shot plays.
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Darnold completed 67.7% of his throws in the regular season (sixth best in the league) and topped the 4,000-yard passing mark. While Darnold still makes some questionable decisions with the ball late in the down, Kubiak can work to keep him on rhythm versus New England.
Best bets for Darnold
Longest completion OVER 35.5 yards (-115)
Darnold had two completions of 40 or more yards in the NFC Championship Game and 17 this season of at least 36 yards (including the playoffs). As I said above, Kubiak will scheme those vertical throws. Take your shots to Smith-Njigba and Rashid Shaheed here.
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OVER 2.5 rushing attempts (+106)
Darnold had only 35 rushing attempts in the regular season (2.1 per game). However, can we get one scramble out of Darnold, plus a couple of kneel-downs at the end of the half or end of the game? Remember, those kneel-downs count as rushing attempts. And I’m taking Seattle to win. Let’s make this bet.
OVER 1.5 touchdown passes (-122)
Darnold threw multiple touchdown passes in eight regular-season games, and he dropped three on the Rams in the NFC Championship Game. I like this bet because of Kubiak’s ability to script concepts in the high red zone, and Smith-Njigba can create his own separation when the Patriots play man coverage.
One more bonus bet …
Maye/Darnold combined 450+ pass yards (-119)
Yes, we are looking at two very good defenses in this matchup. But this number feels low, so let’s get in on this now before it starts to climb closer to game day. This season, Maye averaged 258.5 passing yards per game, while Darnold checked in at 238.1.
