Champions League recap: Grading all 36 teams, plus…

Say what you will about the new Champions League format, but it’s guaranteed to give you an absolutely ridiculous day.

The final matchday of the 36-team league phase gave us 18 matches and 61 goals in basically two hours. Benfica didn’t realize they needed another goal to advance until just about the last minute of stoppage time … and then their goalkeeper scored on the final kick of the match. Olympiacos were out, in, out and then in again. PSV were in, then out, then in, then out. Bodo/Glimt needed to win at Atletico Madrid and did it after falling behind. Sporting CP scored in the 95th minute to both officially eliminate Athletic Club and knock Real Madrid out of the top eight (the LaLiga double). Marseille would have been in if they had lost 2-0, but they lost 3-0.

After a breathless Wednesday, we now know who has and hasn’t advanced. We’ll find out the pairings on Friday, but in the meantime let’s look back at this nutty league phase in two ways: Let’s name its Best XI, and let’s grade each team’s performance based on the expectations they originally brought to the table.

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The 2025-26 Champions League league phase Best XI

Goalkeeper: David Raya, Arsenal. When you have even a rotated Arsenal defense in front of you, you aren’t going to have that much to do, and Raya indeed faced only 20 shots on goal in seven league phase matches. But he saved 18 of them! That’s a 90% save percentage. That would be pretty good in hockey.
Backup: Nikita Haikin, Bodo/Glimt

Right back: Anan Khalaili, Union Saint-Gilloise. Granted, he’s as much a midfielder as a right back, but he made the second-most defensive interventions in the competition (133). He was also first on his team in goals (three), chances created (12) and ground duels won (44) and second in progressive carries (39) and touches (415). He did it all.
Backup: Kieran Trippier, Newcastle

Center backs: Josko Gvardiol, Manchester City; Derrick Luckassen, Pafos. Gvardiol played only five matches in the competition before he suffered a leg fracture, but Gvardiol is one of the best ball-progressing defenders in the world, and in his five matches City allowed just four goals. (They allowed five in the other three.) Meanwhile, Pafos damn near reached the knockout rounds with pure defense, and Luckassen was at the heart of it all: His 140 defensive interventions were the most in the competition, and he won an impressive 70% of his aerial duels.
Backups: Dan Burn, Newcastle; Lorenzo Pirola, Olympiacos

Left back: Nuno Mendes, PSG. He’s the best left back in the world, and he proved it throughout the league phase: He’s first in the competition in ball recoveries (60), fourth in progressive carries (83), 10th in ground duels won (39), 11th in progressive passes (61) and 20th in chances created (15), and he scored two goals with two assists as well.
Backup: Nico O’Reilly, Manchester City

Defensive midfield: Joshua Kimmich, Bayern Munich. In terms of points versus expectations (discussed below), Bayern was the biggest overachiever in the league phase, and Kimmich is the quarterback. He led the competition in progressive passes (107), and he was top-two on his team in touches (778), pass completions (616), ball recoveries (35), chances created (17) and fouls suffered (15).
Backup: Moisés Caicedo, Chelsea

Central midfield: Vitinha, PSG. The best midfielder in the world. He completed over 100 passes per match, and he was both first in the competition in progressive carries (121) and second in progressive passes (100). He also scored five goals, most on the team, and fizzed one in from 19 meters on Wednesday against Newcastle.
Backup: Arda Güler, Real Madrid

Attacking midfield: Dominik Szoboszlai, Liverpool. The Reds’ season has been up-and-down so far, and a lot of the ups have come from Szoboszlai. He’s played at least 450 minutes this season at right back, defensive midfield, right wing and central attacking midfield, and in this competition he’s first in assists (four), fourth in chances created (21) and second in ball recoveries (58). He’s taken a ridiculous leap forward.
Backup: Hans Vanaken, Club Brugge

Right wing: Lamine Yamal, Barcelona. He only played in six league phase matches, but he still produced three goals and three assists with 95 progressive carries (third in the competition), six successful 1v1s in the box (first) and 48 overall ground duels won (fourth). It almost feels like he’s had a disappointing campaign this season because of how high he’s set the bar, and he’s still been one of the best players in the competition.
Backup: Michael Olise, Bayern Munich

Center forward: Kylian Mbappé, Real Madrid. For all of Real Madrid’s oddities and inconsistencies this season, Mbappe has delivered in the competition that means the most to the club.

Mbappe has scored 13 goals (10 non-penalties), and he’s been unlucky not to produce an assist — he’s generated 2.0 expected assists (xA) from pass completions, and his 25 chances created are tops in the league phase.
Backup: Erling Haaland, Manchester City

Left wing: Anthony Gordon, Newcastle. Only Kylian Mbappe (13) has produced more combined goals and assists in this competition than Gordon (eight). He all but declared the Champions League more fun than the Premier League in a recent interview, and he certainly seems to be enjoying himself on European nights.
Backup: Jens Petter Hauge, Bodo/Glimt

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Grading all 36 teams in the league phase

Each team came into the competition with certain expectations. For teams like Kairat Almaty or FK Qarabag, there was only realistic hope of securing a result or two; meanwhile, for teams like PSG, Liverpool and Manchester City, a lofty point total was the assumption. Granted, the table is the only grade that particularly matters, but before we move on to the knockout rounds, let’s compare each team’s point total to their pre-competition projections from Opta and hand out some league phase grades.

Who overachieved and underachieved the most over the last eight matchdays?

GRADE: A+

Bayern Munich
Points: 21 | Initial projection: 13.0 | Difference: +8.0

It’s easy to forget now, but the schedule-makers did Bayern no favors. They opened at home against FIFA Club World Cup champ Chelsea, and they had to play PSG and Arsenal away, back-to-back, in November. The Opta projections therefore gave them the ninth-best average point total heading into the competition. Instead, they fell to Arsenal (3-1) and outscored everyone else by a combined 21-5. In 30 matches in all competitions, they’ve lost only twice, and Jamal Musiala only recently returned. He scored his first goal of the season on Wednesday.

Back like he never left 💪

Jamal Musiala scores in his first start in over 200 days 🔥 pic.twitter.com/1HOQfoYnF1

— CBS Sports Golazo ⚽️ (@CBSSportsGolazo) January 28, 2026

If there’s a concern — and it’s a pretty minor one at this stage — it’s that Bayern’s form hasn’t been spectacular of late. In their last three matches (wins over Union Saint-Gilloise and PSV and a surprising loss to Augsburg), they’ve hinted at some issues in transition, and they’ve allowed as many open-play goals (two) as they’ve scored. This could be a brief blip or a hint of an oncoming funk, but for now they head into the knockout rounds as the biggest overachievers on the board.

Arsenal
Points: 24 | Initial projection: 16.6 | Difference: +7.4

There’s tension in North London because of Arsenal’s iffy recent domestic form — they’ve taken just two points from their last three Premier League matches, cutting their lead over Manchester City and Aston Villa to just four points — but their underlying xG numbers have been perfectly fine in those matches, and quite simply, they’ve been the best team in Europe over the first five-ish months of the season. They’re 8-for-8 in the Champions League. The only other team that has come close to their overall form is Bayern, and Arsenal thumped them 3-1 in November.

This is a brilliant team. None of this will matter if they falter moving forward, but it’s worth mentioning.

(It might also be worth mentioning that since the Champions League expanded to 32 teams in 1999-2000, four teams have won their first eight matches — Barcelona in 2002-03, Bayern in 2019-20 and 2022-23 and Manchester City in 2023-24 — and only one advanced past the quarterfinals.)

GRADE: A

Tottenham Hotspur
Points: 17 | Initial projection: 12.3 | Difference: +4.7

As with last season, Spurs have saved their best performances for Europe. They’re currently ninth in the Premier League in goals allowed and 13th in the table, but they finished fourth in the Champions League table and only Arsenal allowed fewer goals. They’re overachieving their xG figures a bit — their xG differential is just +4.7 (ninth) compared to a goal differential of +10 (fourth) — but they’ve played very sound ball, and they responded to a wild 5-3 loss to PSG by outscoring their final three opponents by a combined 7-0.

Sporting CP
Points: 16 | Initial projection: 11.3 | Difference: +4.7

After the briefest of missteps following Ruben Amorim’s departure last year, Sporting have ignited again. Rui Borges’ squad has combined excellent defense (fifth in xG allowed, first in xG allowed per shot) with excellent attacking contributions from Luis Suárez and Trincao (combined: eight goals, two assists). But it was Alisson Santos who beat Athletic Club in stoppage time to secure a top-eight finish.

END-TO-END CHAOS 😅

Alisson Santos breaks through to win it for Sporting CP at the death 🔥 pic.twitter.com/WJQ8XzJsVr

— CBS Sports Golazo ⚽️ (@CBSSportsGolazo) January 28, 2026

FK Qarabag
Points: 10 | Initial projection: 5.6 | Difference: +4.4

Granted, their league-phase campaign finished with a bit of a thud — losses in three of their last four matches, including a 6-0 pounding by Liverpool on Wednesday — but two early wins, a draw with Chelsea and a dramatic late winner against Eintracht Frankfurt allowed Qarabag to advance to the knockout rounds. Not bad for the team with the second-lowest expected point total heading into the competition.

GRADE: A-

Atletico Madrid
Points: 13 | Initial projection: 11.0 | Difference: +2.0

They lost that wild match to Liverpool early on and got stomped by Arsenal, but they blew out Eintracht Frankfurt back before everyone started doing that, and they won three straight after the Arsenal loss. A quietly effective team, though they only pulled one point from matches against Galatasaray and Bodo/Glimt to finish up.

Atalanta
Points: 13 | Initial projection: 11.0 | Difference: +2.0

Like Atletico, Atalanta got their points locked up and then packed it in a bit early. They took 13 of 15 points from Matchdays 2 through 6, and got some tremendous play from Charles De Ketelaere (two goals and two assists from 20 chances created), so for now we can overlook that they finished the league phase with duds against Athletic Club and Union Saint-Gilloise.

Inter Milan
Points: 15 | Initial projection: 13.1 | Difference: +1.9

Wednesday’s win at Borussia Dortmund was a nice confidence builder after three consecutive Champions League losses (albeit to Atletico, Liverpool and Arsenal). They had a backloaded schedule, and with a 10th-place finish they missed out on a knockout-round bye, but they’re second in goals allowed, and they create far more great chances than their opponents — they’ll have a chance to make a run.

Bayer Leverkusen
Points: 12 | Initial projection: 10.1 | Difference: +1.9

Considering everyone they lost this past summer — Xabi Alonso, Florian Wirtz, Granit Xhaka, Jeremie Frimpong, Jonathan Tah, Piero Hincapié — and considering they misfired in hiring Erik ten Hag to replace Alonso (he was fired almost immediately), simply advancing comfortably is a good thing for Bayer Leverkusen. They suffered a 7-2 humiliation against PSG and a 2-0 upset against Olympiacos, but they beat Manchester City and got a final-matchday brace from Malik Tillman on Wednesday. Things could be much worse in a transition year.

GRADE: B+

Bodo/Glimt
Points: 9 | Initial projection: 7.5 | Difference: +1.5

One of the best UEFA stories of 2024-25 (when they made the Europa League semifinals) has become one of the best stories of 2025-26 too. Our favorite Arctic Circle club lost three matches in a row in the fall and had only two points after five matches. But they came back to snag a point at Borussia Dortmund, beat Manchester City at home, then beat Atletico Madrid in comeback fashion to reach nine points and advance. They had the third-lowest projected point total of the competition and faced a rough schedule, and they advanced all the same. And in the coming weeks, either Real Madrid or Inter Milan will have to visit Bodo’s Aspmyra Stadium. Fantastic stuff.

Barcelona
Points: 16 | Initial projection: 14.5 | Difference: +1.5

Injuries and some early setbacks threw us off the scent a bit, but Barca have won 14 of their last 15 matches, 12 of them by multiple goals. Their 18 open-play goals were the most of the league phase, and they’ve both completed the most progressive passes and drawn people offside the most. Hansi Flick’s team is looking an awful lot like a great Hansi Flick team.

Newcastle United
Points: 14 | Initial projection: 12.5 | Difference: +1.5

Arsenal and Tottenham were responsible for most of the Premier League’s league-phase overachievement, but Newcastle handled their business nicely, suffering a misstep at Marseille and losing a tossup against Barcelona but otherwise going unbeaten. Anthony Gordon has been excellent up front, and aside from the Marseille match, the defense was outstanding too.

Juventus
Points: 13 | Initial projection: 11.5 | Difference: +1.5

They didn’t beat anyone who finished higher than 23rd in the table, but they also only lost one match (1-0 to Real Madrid) and comfortably advanced. They counter-attack well, and they’re in great form — only two losses in their last 20 under Luciano Spalletti — but it’s hard to figure out their overall upside at the moment.

Chelsea
Points: 16 | Initial projection: 14.8 | Difference: +1.2

There are no questions about Chelsea’s upside, only their consistency. They pummeled Barcelona and withstood a desperate 90 minutes at Napoli on Wednesday thanks to a brilliant brace from João Pedro.

Of course, that was also their first good road performance after a no-show against Bayern, a draw at Qarabag and a loss to Atalanta. They’ve won four of five under Liam Rosenior, and their round-of-16 draw could be either very favorable (Qarabag or a fading Monaco) or very rude (PSG or Newcastle).

Olympiacos
Points: 11 | Initial projection: 9.9 | Difference: +1.1

What a rally. Olympiacos play an almost frantic style — they had the most ball recoveries and second-most high turnovers — and most of their attacking ideas involve crosses trying to find a head in the box. But that frantic energy saved them. They had two total points after a wild 4-3 loss to Real Madrid in Matchday 5, and they needed three wins to advance. That’s exactly what they got.

Liverpool
Points: 18 | Initial projection: 16.9 | Difference: +1.1

After a dire run of nine losses in 12 matches in all competitions, Liverpool have lost only once in their last 15. Of course, they’ve also only won three of their last eight, but two of those came by a combined 9-0 against Marseille and Qarabag. Mo Salah has created 10 chances with an assist in his first three matches since returning from AFCON, and perhaps more importantly he scored his first post-return goal on Wednesday too.

Mo Salah free kick BRILLIANCE 💫

The Egyptian king showing his class 👑 pic.twitter.com/Zynsfe8OI8

— CBS Sports Golazo ⚽️ (@CBSSportsGolazo) January 28, 2026

GRADE: B

Manchester City
Points: 16 | Initial projection: 15.3 | Difference: +0.7

With all the changes City have gone through in recent years, this is still a Pep Guardiola team, with the requisite high pass completion rate (90.8%, first in the competition), long possessions (8.9 passes per possession, first), massive field tilt (most touches in the attacking third, fewest shots against) and occasionally shaky transition defense (28th in xG allowed per shot). They can beat anyone at any time, but they still proved capable of losing to Bayer Leverkusen and Bodo/Glimt, too. They could face either Bayern or Arsenal in the quarterfinals, too, which makes them a major wildcard.

Real Madrid
Points: 15 | Initial projection: 14.3 | Difference: +0.7

We’ve seen loads of attacking brilliance from Real Madrid here — not only from Mbappe, but also from Vinícius Júnior and Arda Guler (combined: eight assists from 41 chances created) — but defensive breakdowns and total inattention on set pieces (zero goals scored from them and three allowed, one in each of three losses) knocked them out of the top eight. They hired Xabi Alonso to modernise their game, but they pushed him out the door, and they’re now more reliant than ever on random moments of individual excellence.

Galatasaray
Points: 10 | Initial projection: 9.4 | Difference: +0.6

While Olympiacos snagged a knockout-round berth with a late charge, Galatasaray did their damage early, winning three straight matches (including a 1-0 tone-setter against Liverpool) to get to nine points after four matches, then managing just one more point the rest of the way. They’re still dangerous if they can find their finishing form, but in their last three losses they’ve scored zero goals from shots worth 2.7 xG. Victor Osimhen has been almost invisible in the competition since his Matchday 4 hat trick against Ajax.

Marseille
Points: 9 | Initial projection: 8.4 | Difference: +0.6

At least Galatasaray remained in the competition. Marseille couldn’t manage the same, working their way to nine points after six matchdays but losing their last two matches to Liverpool and Club Brugge by a combined 6-1. If they’d only lost 4-1, they’d have advanced, but the vibes plummeted, and Pierre-Emerick Aubameyang didn’t score in his final three matches after a brace against Newcastle.

Pafos
Points: 9 | Initial projection: 8.5 | Difference: +0.5

Pafos understood their assignment better than almost anyone in the competition. They knew their only way forward was to defend their pants off, and they did so. They brought 38-year-old David Luiz into the fold, kept three clean sheets, won set pieces (six goals scored, three allowed) and suffered only three losses. And in the end, they missed out on advancement because of basically a single goal. The collective effort level was brilliant.

GRADE: B-

AS Monaco
Points: 10 | Initial projection: 10.1 | Difference: -0.1

They drew with Manchester City, Tottenham and Juventus and won away against Bodo/Glimt (something City couldn’t do), but they got throttled by Club Brugge early in the competition and by Real Madrid late. The positive results allowed them to advance, but thanks primarily to some dire finishing, they’ve scored just 10 goals in their last 14 matches in Ligue 1 and the Champions League. They don’t head into the knockout rounds brimming with confidence, but at least they made it.

Borussia Dortmund
Points: 11 | Initial projection: 11.4 | Difference: -0.4

Borussia Dortmund are a very specific type of team in 2025-26: They beat the bad teams, and they drop points against the good ones. In Bundesliga play, they’ve faced 11 opponents with an Opta power rating of 86.0 or lower, and they’ve taken 31 points from those 11 matches. Against six opponents with a higher rating? They’ve won once and taken seven points.

It’s the same story in the Champions League: In four matches against either teams from outside the Big Five leagues (Bodo/Glimt, Copenhagen) or teams suffering through disappointing campaigns (Athletic Club, Villarreal), they’ve taken 10 points with a goal differential of +9. Against their four best opponents, however (Juventus, Tottenham, Man City and Inter), they managed one point and a goal differential of minus-7. That probably doesn’t say good things about their prospects of advancing further in this competition.

Paris Saint-Germain
Points: 14 | Initial projection: 14.6 | Difference: -0.6

This time last year, PSG had shifted into gear and become the best team in the world, and they would continue at that level deep into the summer (until the final of the Club World Cup). We’re still waiting on that form to arrive. They’ve won only two of their last six matches in all competitions and only one of their last five in the Champions League.

There’s nothing wrong with them, and lord knows the god of xG hasn’t been kind of late — in their last three Champions League matches they’ve scored two goals from shots worth 6.2 xG — but they’ll once again have to take the hard road in the knockout rounds: They might have to beat Barcelona or Chelsea, then Liverpool, just to reach the semifinals against Arsenal, Bayern or City.

Union Saint-Gilloise
Points: 9 | Initial projection: 9.7 | Difference: -0.7

They went down playing their style of ball, at least. No one attempted more ground duels in this competition, and almost no one made more ball recoveries, and they scored a trio of Champions League wins because of it. But when they were losing their duels, there was no Plan B. Four of their five losses came by multiple goals, and they missed out on the knockout rounds because of goal differential.

Club Brugge
Points: 10 | Initial projection: 11.0 | Difference: -1.0

Like their countrymates USG, Brugge were spectacularly all-or-nothing, winning three matches by a combined 11-2 and losing four by a combined 12-1. But a wild 3-3 draw with Barcelona in Matchday 10 gave them a 10th point and a key to the next round. They’ll play either Juventus or Atletico Madrid and presumably either advance or lose by a combined eight goals or something.

GRADE: C+

FC Copenhagen
Points: 8 | Initial projection: 9.3 | Difference: -1.3

Like Pafos, the Danish champs controlled what they could control: They attacked directly, they won their aerial duels (they attempted the seventh-most aerials with the seventh-best success rate), they nearly broke even on set pieces, and they played their way into the competition, taking just one point from their first four matches and seven from the last four. It was almost enough to advance.

PSV Eindhoven
Points: 8 | Initial projection: -9.6 | Difference: -1.6

If you watched PSV’s brilliant wins over Napoli (6-2 at home) and Liverpool (4-1 at Anfield), your only question would have been whether or not they earned a top-eight finish. But those were somehow their only wins. Their attack either generated loads of great chances or none whatsoever — they were over 2.1 xG in four matches and under 0.7 in the other four — and they were never going to have the defense to overcome attacking droughts.E

GRADE: C

Athletic Club
Points: 8 | Initial projection: 10.2 | Difference: -2.2

A tough, front-loaded schedule (Arsenal, at Borussia Dortmund and at Newcastle in their first four matches), which meant they had a lot of work to do down the stretch. In the end, an unfortunate 0-0 draw with Slavia Prague in Matchday 5 — xG: Athletic 1.3, Slavia 0.6 — did them in, even if that wasn’t confirmed until the final matchday. Gorka Guruzeta (five goals) was solid up front, but getting just 320 combined minutes from the Williams brothers was too much to overcome in attack.

Ajax
Points: 6 | Initial projection: 8.3 | Difference: -2.3

The 2025-26 campaign has been a two-act play for Ajax. They won just five of their first 18 matches of the season (three in their first five matches, then two in 13), and their Champions League form got sucked into that morass — first five matches: zero points and a minus-15 goal differential. But since the start of December, they’ve been genuinely strong, winning nine of 13 in all competitions and beating both Qarabag and Villarreal away in the Champions League.

The turnaround came too late for them to advance here, but at least they’re more likely to make it back next season now.

Kairat Almaty
Points: 1 | Initial projection: 3.5 | Difference: -2.5

The victory was making it to the competition at all. They entered the competition in the first qualifying round and beat Olimpija Ljubljana, KuPS (with a two-goal comeback), Slovan Bratislava (in penalties) and, of course, Celtic (in penalties again) to reach the league phase. That earned them the right to host Real Madrid and both visit and score goals at both the San Siro and Emirates.

GRADE: C-

Benfica
Points: 9 | Initial projection: 12.1 | Difference: -3.1

In one week in September, Benfica drew with Santa Clara in domestic play and fell to underdog heroes Qarabag to start the Champions League, and that was enough for them to fire Bruno Lage and bring in Jose Mourinho. They’ve suffered too many draws to keep up with Porto domestically, but after starting with zero points in four Champions League matches, they won three of their last four to advance by the skin of their teeth. And I mean the skin of their teeth.

GOALKEEPER ANATOLIY TRUBIN SCORES A 98TH MINUTE GOAL AGAINST REAL MADRID TO SAVE BENFICA’S #UCL SEASON WITH THE FINAL TOUCH OF THE MATCH! 😱

IMAGINE NOT LOVING FOOTBALL 🤯 pic.twitter.com/y0thIBEQb5

— CBS Sports Golazo ⚽️ (@CBSSportsGolazo) January 28, 2026

GRADE: D+

Napoli
Points: 8 | Initial projection: 11.9 | Difference: -3.9

Antonio Conte has enjoyed continental success before — his Inter reached the Europa League final in 2020, among other things — but Conte teams have definitely suffered some UEFA duds as well, and this one ranks high on the list. A dire early 6-2 loss to PSV was a bad sign, and their overall form wasn’t good enough to produce a late rally. They’ve currently won just one of their last seven matches (which has all but dropped them out of the Serie A race as well), and they could only take a point against 10-man Copenhagen and Chelsea.

Not good enough.

GRADE: D

Slavia Prague
Points: 3 | Initial projection: 7.7 | Difference: -4.7

Slavia couldn’t translate dominant league form — they’re unbeaten through 19 matches and hold a seven point lead over rival Sparta Prague — into anything worthwhile here. To their credit, they went for it: They made the eighth-most ball recoveries and tried to harass their opponents, but all it really earned them was defensive devastation: Opponents attempted 28 shots worth at least 0.2 xG, the second-most in the league phase.

GRADE: D-

Eintracht Frankfurt
Points: 4 | Initial projection: 9.3 | Difference: -5.3

First impressions are frequently misleading. Eintracht began the season brilliantly, with four wins (and an 18-6 scoring margin) in their first five matches in all competitions — a run that included a 5-1 Champions League pounding of Galatasaray. In their next seven Champions League matches, they earned one point and were outscored, 20-5. Horrid. They’re eighth in the Bundesliga, too, and they’ve fired manager Dino Toppmoller.

GRADE: F

Villarreal
Points: 1 | Initial projection: 11.2 | Difference: -10.2

By far the most disappointing team of the league phase. Villarreal are fourth in LaLiga and are very well-established to earn a spot in next season’s Champions League field, but they were eliminated from this competition well before the final matchday. They didn’t play well very frequently, and when they did, they got nothing from it: They scored five goals from shots worth 9.8 xG, and they allowed 18 goals from shots worth 12.4. Bad and unlucky gets you eliminated quickly.