Our betting experts’ favorite Super Bowl prop play…

There are seemingly endless ways to bet Super Bowl LX. From the typical on-field stats and outcomes to the off-field entertainment, there is also value to be found in the matchup between the Seattle Seahawks and New England Patriots.

The action we’ll explore here is more of the typical type, with Ben Solak looking at the offensive side of the ball, and Seth Walder examining the defensive side.

Solak and Walder bring different perspectives into how they approach sports betting. Solak leans on his expertise in player evaluation and the X’s and O’s to find edges. Walder relies on statistical models to pick out plus-expected value bets. They’ll give you a peek at how the teams match up before diving into a few bets that make sense on both sides of the ball.

From yardage totals to interception long shots and everything between, here’s how our analysts see the betting edges available for Super Bowl LX.

Note: Super Bowl odds by DraftKings Sportsbook and subject to change.

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When the Seahawks have the ball

Seattle takes a run-first approach. The Seahawks led the league in called run rate in large part because of the leads they’ve held for many of their regular-season blowouts. On the season, they have a called run rate 4.9% over expectation, the ninth-highest rate among all teams. So they’re a bit more balanced than they first appear.

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Seattle is also one of the heaviest under-center teams in all of football, which goes with its run-first approach. Only the Los Angeles Rams were under center more often, and only five teams averaged more yards per play out of their under-center snaps. Seattle pairs those formations with a highly variable set of personnel groupings. The Seahawks ran 11 personnel at the fourth-lowest rate of all teams, instead opting for two-back sets with fullback Robbie Ouzts (24.8% of snaps) or multiple tight end sets (42.7% of snaps) with Eric Saubert or Elijah Arroyo (recently injured).

Because the Seahawks commit so much to their run action with heavier sets and under-center alignment, their boot and rollout game is especially dangerous (12.6% of quarterback Sam Darnold’s dropbacks are designed rollouts, which was fifth in the league this season). On rollouts, Darnold averages 0.44 expected points added (EPA) per dropback and a success rate of 58.5%, and his 11.1 yards per attempt is second only to Lamar Jackson.

This rollout focus of the passing game is of particular importance against the Patriots, who win in the pass rush with their elite defensive tackle duo Milton Williams and Christian Barmore. By relocating Darnold and moving the pocket, Seattle can protect him from the fast interior pressure that leads to turnover-worthy plays.

Best bets on Seattle offense player props

George Holani OVER 11.5 receiving yards (-107)

Kenneth Walker III continued his excellent postseason carrying the football in the Seahawks’ win over the Rams, and he has increased his damage as an early-down pass catcher on screens as well. But to keep him fresh in Zach Charbonnet’s absence, the Seahawks often pulled him on late downs, sticking Holani in as their third-down back. Holani had 14 routes against the Rams to Walker’s 15 and collected four targets for 27 yards in the game.

Even though Holani is not a well-known name, an 11.5-yard line for a dedicated third-down back in what should be a close game is simply too low and should be bet accordingly.

AJ Barner to score a TD (+255)

I really like betting Barner to score a touchdown, as he is the designated tush push sneaker for the Seahawks’ offense. On the season, Barner has 12 sneak carries; Darnold has five. It is worth noting that Darnold’s sneak carries have been more frequent in the second half of the season, but on a third-and-goal from the 1-yard line, you have feel better about the 6-foot-6, 251-pound Barner in that spot.

The Patriots had one of the worst goal-to-go defenses in football this season, but they have largely avoided red zone drives because of their excellent play between the 20s. The Seahawks’ offense should give them a much stiffer challenge than they’ve faced all playoffs, so I’m interested in Seattle’s team total touchdown overs as well. I expect the Seahawks’ scoring drives to end in seven points, not three.

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When the Patriots have the ball

New England’s offense is a classic offense built for a supercomputer quarterback. The Patriots had the second-highest pass rate over expectation during the regular season, behind only the Arizona Cardinals. They also use formational space to spread out defenses and give quarterback Drake Maye tons of space to read and make defenders guess wrong. The Patriots used condensed formations on only 23% of their plays, which was the lowest rate in football. Contrast that to the Seahawks, who were in condensed sets on over 50% of their snaps, second only to the San Francisco 49ers. Because the Patriots want to give Maye a clear pre-snap picture, they’re relatively static pre-snap; they sent a player in motion on only 54.3% of their offensive snaps, the fifth-lowest rate in football.

Stefon Diggs and Hunter Henry, had fewer combined receiving yards (1,781) than Jaxon Smith-Njigba did by himself (1,793).

Though the Patriots are static in their formations and pre-snap operation, they do employ a fullback (Jack Westover) and multiple tight end sets, along with jumbo personnel, to force defenses into certain coverages and packages (25.3% of the Patriots’ dropbacks this season have come against base defense, in large part because of their heavier groupings). It’s something that they share with the Seahawks, who have seen base on a whopping 34.2% of their dropbacks.

Best bets on Patriots offense player props

Nick Emmanwori in coverage, and though the Seahawks’ defense gives up more tight end targets than the average defense, it’s only marginally so.

TreVeyon Henderson OVER 24.5 rushing + receiving yards (-113)

The explosive rookie vanished from the game plan against the Broncos, as his three touches for five yards were his lowest since an October game against the Tennessee Titans. Henderson has some mental busts in pass protection, and I think the coaching staff was fearful of overexposing him to the blitz-happy Denver defense. But the Seahawks don’t blitz nearly as much, and I’d wager Henderson gets a few designer touches — as well as his standard menu of carries — in an effort to find big plays without pushing the ball downfield. This is a generic bet on Henderson getting an increased role, but we can also get home on few touches because Henderson is just that fast.

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Walder’s defensive breakdown

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So, yes, it matters that the Seahawks have a suffocating defensive unit that is impossible to run against (just forget about the conference championship game) and forces opponents into just 5.1 air yards per attempt, second lowest of any defense. And it matters that the Patriots’ defense has played some of its best games of the season in the playoffs … but also that they’ve struggled to stop the run all season long.

It’s also very relevant that Maye has a bit of a sack problem and Darnold has a bit of an interception problem.

But, like betting any category, nothing matters more than the odds. So despite all that I wrote above, below you’ll find an under for a Seahawks defender (against Maye) and an interception over, also for a Seahawks defender (against Maye) — because that is what my models identified as the best bets.

As always for me, I lean on statistical models to find values against the odds. So rather than try to envision how the game will play out, I let the numbers guide me to the bets I’m making.

Best defensive prop bets

Elijah Ponder OVER 0.25 sacks (+483)

More than anything else, this bet hinges on Harold Landry III’s injury status and playing time. Landry has been dealing with a knee injury that has reduced his workload or caused him to sit out games entirely in every game from Week 16 on, including sitting out all of the AFC Championship Game. Ponder has been a major playing time beneficiary.

An undrafted rookie free agent, Ponder has 4.0 sacks this season and a 10.9% pass rush win rate at edge (a bit below average for a starter), but at these odds he hardly needs to be amazing. And similarly, given the major plus-money here, this bet does not require Landry being inactive to make it worthwhile. It’s a good bet whether Landry is out or playing roughly half his normal workload, as has been the case for more than a month now. And I’m quite willing to take that chance.

Milton Williams UNDER 0.25 sacks (-194)

Williams is coming off a heck of a season in which he recorded a 13% pass rush win rate at defensive tackle, which would have ranked sixth if he qualified. But the «at defensive tackle» part is crucial for sack forecasting here, because interior rushers simply sack the quarterback less frequently. Williams is indicative of this, logging 5.5 sacks in 15 games despite having such a great season.

And this game is less likely to produce a Williams sack than most because the Patriots are moderate underdogs. So much of sack production is driven by circumstance, and a huge variable is which team is losing. The losing team will be forced into more clear passing situations, which allows defensive players to forget about run responsibilities and simply get after the quarterback. But as an underdog, that is simply less likely in the Super Bowl than most Patriots games this season. My model prices this Williams under at -302.

Coby Bryant to record 1+ interception (+950)

This is a new model I worked up just for the Super Bowl, because who doesn’t want another long shot to root for? And I’m glad I did, because it found one interception player prop it loves: Bryant to record a pick. It sees three things that Bryant has going for him to record a pick in this game:

1. The Seahawks are favored. That means more expected pass attempts for Maye and possibly more desperate pass attempts.
2. Bryant has four interceptions this season. As random as interceptions can be, I’ve found there is signal there, so that boosts Bryant’s pick probability in the Super Bowl.
3. Bryant plays safety almost exclusively. Interceptions occur most often when a player is playing safety, but some safeties spend their time playing elsewhere on the field. Not Bryant. He plays almost every snap, and 94% of those snaps are actually as a safety, per NFL Next Gen Stats.

The result? My model puts the fair odds on a Bryant pick at +535. If it’s right, then we’ve got ourselves a value.

Devon Witherspoon UNDER 6.5 tackles + assists (-137)

A 6.5 combined tackle line for a corner is very high. And I get it, because Witherspoon has really high tackle rates for his position. He has recorded a tackle or assist on 10.6% of his defensive snaps, fifth highest among all outside corners with at least 300 snaps this season.

But my model is well aware of that fact, and it still thinks the under is the play. Why? The power of the base rate. As many tackles as Witherspoon has had over his 14 games played this season, we have far, far more data points of corners across the league. And only 12% of games played by outside cornerback starters resulted in them recording seven tackles or more.

Byron Murphy II UNDER 0.25 sacks (-216)

His 7.0 sacks this season are impressive for a defensive tackle, though his advanced pass-rushing metrics aren’t quite as favorable, with a 9.2% pass rush win rate at defensive tackle (17th best among qualifiers) and 6.7% pressure rate (ninth best).

I’ll confess this bet scares me a bit because Maye’s biggest weakness all season has been taking sacks; his 8.8% sack rate is fifth worst among QBR-qualifying quarterbacks. But my model makes this price -309, and I’m always inclined to trust the numbers, especially in what is by far my most successful category.