Fantasy basketball: Don’t be surprised if … We b…

Each week in the NBA is its own story — full of surprises, both positive and negative — and fantasy basketball managers must decide what to believe and what not to believe moving forward. Perhaps we can help. If any of these thoughts come true … don’t be surprised.

Don’t be surprised if … Portland Trail Blazers C Donovan Clingan leads the league in rebounds

Clingan, 21, is enjoying an excellent second NBA season, averaging 11.3 PPG and 11.2 RPG over 27.5 MPG, and it feels like there is ample upside remaining. Somehow available in more than 30% of ESPN standard leagues, Clingan has averaged 12.4 PPG and 13 RPG in January, attempting 9.5 field goals per game, and even with awesome SF/PF Deni Avdija (back) playing, Clingan continues to thrive. Really, the only reason he isn’t shooting 60% from the field is because he wants to attempt 3-pointers. It went well in December when he hit 52.2% of them. January has been a struggle, though, at 25.0%.

Regardless, Clingan is a stable center still learning how and when to shoot a basketball from more than a few feet away from the basket, and while he piles on rebounds (he had 20 of them on Tuesday!), he can be a bigger force blocking shots. He blocked five Boston Celtics shots two games ago. It’s all coming. Clingan went two picks ahead of current Memphis Grizzlies C Zach Edey in the 2024 draft. The larger Edey should be great, too, but he hasn’t been able to stay on the court due to repeated ankle injuries. Clingan has missed four games this season. Why did Portland double-down by coveting large Yang Hansen in the 2025 draft? I guess we will see how it works out.

With defending three-time rebounding champion Domantas Sabonis (knee) seeing his impressive streak end this season because he will fall short of playing in 65 games, and current average leader Denver Nuggets star Nikola Jokic (knee) joining him, the race for the No. 1 rebounder is open, with former Timberwolves teammates Karl-Anthony Towns and Rudy Gobert at the top along with Clingan. LA Clippers C Ivica Zubac, Detroit Pistons C Jalen Duren, Atlanta Hawks unicorn Jalen Johnson and (surprise) Utah Jazz C Jusuf Nurkic are the other qualifiers averaging double-digits. What a race!

Don’t be surprised if … we barely see Milwaukee Bucks PF/C Giannis Antetokounmpo again this season

Not to purposely go from happiness to pessimism, but this situation with the great Giannis may mirror (unfortunately) that of new Washington Wizards PG Trae Young. The Wizards acquired Young earlier in January, because the price was certainly right and the franchise wants to make a playoff push next season. They want to lose games this season so they can keep their valuable lottery pick, and the NBA cannot stop them. If the Wizards win too much, that pick heads to the Knicks. As a result, Young, out with a knee injury he could probably play through during ordinary circumstances, sits. Perhaps he debuts for his new team in March, perhaps not.

Similarly, the Bucks aren’t winning anything this season. They want to avoid winning games so they can earn a better draft pick. Antetokounmpo (calf) is legitimately hurt, but not so much that he cannot play again this season. That may not stop the Bucks from not playing him, though, or playing him sporadically in the final month-plus of the regular season. Fantasy managers looking to trade for Antetokounmpo, Young and Memphis Grizzlies PG Ja Morant in redraft formats should exercise real caution. If the cost is super low, sure, but even that may not be enough. Teams that aren’t winning anything in this league simply are not motivated to play their stars.

What potentially clouds this situation is if the Bucks work out a trade for Antetokounmpo before next week’s Feb. 5 deadline. It may happen. It may not. If Antetokounmpo goes to a contending team, sure, they may play him right away and go for it. If he goes to a non-contender, well, it may be the Trae Young situation. In redraft formats, I would strongly consider trading Antetokounmpo prior to the NBA trade deadline.

Meanwhile, the Bucks permitted 139 points to the inconsistent Philadelphia 76ers Tuesday (Philly scored only 93 points in Charlotte Monday), but there is fantasy value to be gleaned from what is left of the Giannis-less crew. SG/PG Ryan Rollins averages just shy of 20 PPG when Giannis sits, and we saw a ton of Rollins usage on Tuesday. Frankly, Rollins, averaging 35.7 ESPN fantasy points this season but rostered in 87.2% of leagues, may be a top 50 fantasy scorer from here on out. PF Bobby Portis will not be, even though he starts with Giannis out and averages 16.5 PPG with the extra usage. Portis is a fine fantasy addition, too, and remains out there in 50% of leagues.

Other thoughts:

• The news that Cleveland Cavaliers PF/C Evan Mobley (calf) will miss at least a week and perhaps three of them (through the All-Star break, most likely) with a repeat injury is disconcerting, obviously. Mobley entered Wednesday 19th in fantasy points this season, and he is 39th on the Player Rater. Was I hoping for more? Well, yeah, I wrote prior to each of the past two seasons that I hoped/expected Mobley to finally average 20 PPG and 10 RPG, along with the requisite blocked shots and fine shooting. Mobley dropped 29 points and 13 rebounds (and 72 fantasy points!) on the woeful Kings recently, and I got excited. In the two games after, he totaled 33 points, 16 rebounds and 60 fantasy points against the defensively responsible Orlando Magic. Mobley averages 17.9 PPG and 8.8 RPG this season, down from 18.5 PPG and 9.3 RPG last season. It is fine, but yeah, 20 and 10 just isn’t happening. Hey, it could be worse.

• Many NBA followers are aware that 76ers PG/SG Tyrese Maxey handles an astounding number of minutes at 39.1 per game, and young Houston Rockets SF/SG/PF Amen Thompson entered Wednesday night second at 37.4 MPG. Few would believe his Rockets teammate PF/SF Kevin Durant, one of the 10 oldest, qualified players in the sport, is third at 36.9 MPG. Then again, Durant did this last season in Phoenix, and averaged 37.2 MPG in 2023-24, and few believe, in his case, his injuries are a result of overuse. Durant missed the final seven games of last season with an ankle sprain, but the Suns appeared fine with that as they looked toward the lottery. Durant is a unicorn. He’s not normal. While Maxey is not playing as well recently, perhaps due to myriad minutes, Durant is thriving. He has averaged 47 fantasy points per game over the past 30 days, 10th in the league. Remain confident.

• As for the Suns, last week I praised SG Jalen Green, returning from two months gone with a right hamstring injury, and certainly recommended that fantasy managers invest. Green re-injured the hamstring four minutes into his second game. Perhaps he plays again soon and fulfills his statistical possibilities, but part of us must wonder if this may just end up being a lost season for Green.

• While Houston’s Amen Thompson thrives at both ends of the court (18.2 PPG, 7.7 RPG, 39 FPG), his twin brother Ausar Thompson, SF/PF for the Detroit Pistons, is not (10.8 PPG, 5.9 RPG, 28.1 FPG). These fellows went Nos. 4 and 5 in the 2023 NBA draft, and I wonder if fantasy managers are keeping Ausar around because they expect him to similarly emerge as a star. These are different teams with different needs from the Thompson twins, and Ausar contributes steals for a fantasy roster, and little else. He is shooting more than last season but sees an average of five fewer field goals attempts per game than his brother. Neither of them has as outside game. Ausar has averaged only 9.1 PPG in January. The Pistons don’t need Ausar to score. Put simply, there is little fantasy comparison between the brothers — at least this season — and fantasy managers rostering Ausar (70.7%) may consider moving on.