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André Snellings
The NBA Trade Deadline is Thursday, so all eyes are on the teams and players most involved in the trade rumor mill. Any moves made will have major implications on fantasy squads as well, changing the values of the players being traded as well as the teams adding or losing personnel.
Similarly, the fantasy world has its own trade imperatives and deadlines to consider as we move into the second half of the season. Every player’s fantasy value changes throughout the season for many reasons, and savvy managers take advantage of the ebbs and flows to improve their squads.
Below is a list of several players who are among the most often being traded in ESPN leagues. With an eye on both how they are currently trending and expectations for the rest of the season, should you trade for them or trade them away? Let’s explore.
Giannis Antetokounmpo, PF/C, Milwaukee Bucks
We know that Giannis is a clear top-10 player in points leagues when healthy on the Bucks. But he is injured with an ambiguous return date, and he is at the top of the NBA trade rumor mill with the deadline looming. This leaves a lot of uncertainty as to his fantasy value for the rest of the season, so it is no surprise that he is — by far — the most traded player in ESPN leagues in recent weeks.
Giannis currently ranks top-40ish in both points and categories rest-of-season rankings, lower than usual because of the injury uncertainty. If I try to trade for Giannis that’s the level of value I’d offer. But if he’s on my team, I still want at least top-15 value for him. In a very specific example from one of my teams that has Giannis, another league manager offered me Evan Mobley and Jordan Poole for him. I countered with Mobley and Keyonte George. Negotiations are ongoing, but this makes a good range of potential offer and counter for Giannis.
Shai Gilgeous-Alexander, PG, Oklahoma City Thunder
Gilgeous-Alexander leads the league in fantasy points, is third in fantasy points per game and second in the fantasy rankings for both points and categories leagues. However, for the second season in a row, the Thunder have the best record in the NBA and a sizeable lead over the second place team in the West. And, as we saw last season, the Thunder are willing to rest SGA and their other stars down the stretch.
Last season, SGA missed only one of the first 62 games of the season, but five of the last 20, including three straight to end the season. As such, if SGA is the best player on my fantasy squad, I might worry a bit that he could miss time during my fantasy playoffs when I need him the most.
Gilgeous-Alexander’s trade value is at a max right now. If he’s on your team, you’re only trading him for top-5 value. But if not for the small uncertainty about his availability down the stretch, SGA probably wouldn’t be available in trades at all. And if I were trading for him, I’d still give up top-5 value, but perhaps risky options. In fact, I might pair a high-risk/big-name player like Giannis with another top-40 player for SGA and a top-100 player in return.
Michael Porter Jr., SF/PF, Brooklyn Nets
Porter went from a championship-caliber Denver Nuggets team to a rebuilding Nets team this past offseason, allowing his usage and production to ramp up to fantasy elite this season. Porter is another whose name is at the top of the trade rumor mill but, if he gets traded to a contender, it is unlikely he would enjoy the same shooting green light he has for the Nets.
Porter is currently top 30 in fantasy points per game and top 40 on the player rater. That makes a reasonable range of his trade value, though of course if I were trading him I’d want top 30 or better and if I were trading for him I’d likely offer top 40 or worse. They key in the negotiation is the uncertainty of the trade rumors so, regardless of which side of the deal you’d be on, be sure to try to angle your take on the rumors to maximize your end of the deal.
Karl-Anthony Towns, PF/C, New York Knicks
Towns is having a down season by his standards, averaging just 38.2 fantasy points per game after notching 46.6 FP/G last season. There have been reports that there may be friction between Towns and the Knicks, which has led to rumors that he may be traded before the deadline. That would be difficult because the Knicks have very little financial flexibility or draft picks to move, but it does add an element of uncertainty that makes Towns one of the most-traded players in ESPN fantasy leagues.
Towns is the rare impact player whose fantasy value might be likely to increase if he’s traded. Towns has higher production potential than he’s shown this season and, whether it’s due to team friction or just the fact that the Knicks are full of scorers that need their touches, a new team could be of benefit to the KAT. Towns is 26th in total fantasy points on the season, but has top-15 upside in the right situation. And Towns ranks 19th on the Player Rater, with a game that is slightly more valuable in category leagues than points. If I have Towns on my team, I want top-15 value back in any trade for him. But if I’m trading for him, I try to angle more toward the top-40 value of his current fantasy scoring average than his totals or upside.
Joel Embiid, C, Philadelphia 76ers
Embiid is the highest-risk, highest-reward player in the game — even more so than Giannis. But quietly, Embiid’s «reward» side has been winning of late and the positives seem to be accelerating. Embiid not only missed a big chunk of games early in the season, but when he played his minutes and production were both limited. However, over the last month, Embiid is seventh in the NBA in fantasy points per game. Over the last two weeks, he ranks third. And Embiid has only missed three of his last 18 games.
Embiid currently ranks as a top-50ish player in both points and categories, based in large part on his risk to miss games. And if I were trading for him, I would offer top-50 value, perhaps with bigger name players to make the deal more palatable. But if he was on my team, I would require at least top-20 value for him and perhaps higher. The roller coaster and risk of his availability is maddening but, the way he’s playing right now, I wouldn’t be able to take less
