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Neil Paine
The 2026 men’s NCAA tournament is rapidly approaching, which means it’s time to turn our attention to the biggest burning question: Will your team be in or out? It has roughly six weeks until Selection Sunday to answer that query. Until then, we’re here to track how each team on the «bubble» of the bracket is trending.
We’ll use a variety of metrics as guides, classifying teams based on how likely they are to make the field of 68 as one of the 37 at-large selections — conditional on not winning their respective conference tournaments for one of the 31 automatic qualifying bids (AQs). To that end, we’ll use Joe Lunardi’s Bracketology projections and a combination of data sources — including my forecast-model consensus and NCAA résumé metrics such as NET rankings that the selection committee will evaluate — to judge a team’s underlying potential. (For a full glossary of terms and sources, click here or scroll to the bottom of this story.)
Big Ten | SEC | ACC
Big 12 | Big East
Mid-majors
BIG TEN
10.0 expected bids (9.0 at-large)
Locks
Michigan Wolverines
Nebraska Cornhuskers
Illinois Fighting Illini
Purdue Boilermakers
Michigan State Spartans
Should be in
Iowa Hawkeyes
Updated: Feb. 2
Iowa’s résumé rankings are all over the place, ranging from the high 40s in KPI to the low 20s in NET, averaging out to 30th nationally. That’s still on the right side of the bubble, with some room to spare. The Hawkeyes bolstered their case with a Quadrant 1A win at Indiana in mid-January and with Sunday’s 18-point victory at Oregon. They’re even better than their résumé ranking gives them credit for, checking in at 22nd in our average of performance ratings, which raises their potential going forward. But their schedule does get more difficult looking ahead, jumping from 70th to 17th nationally from here on out, according to the BPI.
Next game: at Washington (Wednesday)
Wisconsin Badgers
Updated: Feb. 1
The Badgers boosted their case with a 10-point home win over fellow bubble-dweller Ohio State on Saturday; it was their seventh victory in eight games. They still sit around 40th in the national consensus résumé ranking, which is prime bubble territory. But they also sit eighth among the 10 Big Ten teams tracking for bids. The schedule does not let up anytime soon, either, with four straight Quadrant 1A contests coming up next that could provide signature wins (they’ve beaten only one Quadrant 1 opponent thus far) or knock their odds into shakier territory.
Next game: at Indiana (Saturday)
Indiana Hoosiers
Updated: Feb. 1
Indiana is here as the darling of the forecast models, which average out to a 91% conditional at-large probability despite a relatively similar top-line résumé ranking (No. 42) to other Big Ten bubble candidates below. What the Hoosiers have going for them are more signature wins — two versus Quadrant 1A — and plenty of talent, as they are in the top 30 in every power rating we’re tracking. The latter factor leads them to be projected for more wins by season’s end (20.2) than any of the conference’s other non-locks aside from Iowa.
Next game: at USC (Tuesday)
Work to do
UCLA Bruins
Updated: Feb. 1
The Bruins are coming off a heartbreaking double-overtime loss to Indiana on Saturday that snapped their 14-game home win streak. But in the big picture, their résumé still ranks mid-40s nationally and 10th in the Big Ten, and that might even be underselling their chances. The forecast model composite thinks they’re more likely to get a bid than not (75%), on the basis of two Quadrant 1 wins and a more manageable rest-of-season schedule (No. 36 nationally in the BPI) than their bubble rivals, which ought to get them to 20 wins. That said, many high-leverage games remain.
Next game: vs. Rutgers (Tuesday)
Ohio State Buckeyes
Updated: Feb. 1
The Buckeyes are right on the bubble at No. 45 in the national résumé rankings, but a 10-point loss at Wisconsin did them no favors; they now rank 11th in what is looking like a 10-bid Big Ten. They have a single Quadrant 1 win (at Northwestern in early December) and are projected by the BPI to fall just short of 19 wins on the season — meaning they’re projected to be sub-.500 from here on, which explains why they’re not as sure of a tournament-bound team as they seemed earlier in the season.
Next game: at Maryland (Thursday)
USC Trojans
Updated: Feb. 1
If the season ended today, USC would likely secure one of the Big Ten’s last entries comfortably, as they are a top-40 team in the résumé rankings and sit seventh in the conference in that regard. The models are less bullish (45% at-large), however, because the Trojans are only a borderline top-50 team in the predictive ratings and have just a single win against the BPI top 50 (Wisconsin). With five losses in their past nine outings, they can’t let what was once a 12-1 start unravel further.
Next game: vs. Indiana (Tuesday)
Washington Huskies
Updated: Feb. 1
The Huskies might be downgraded to the «long shots» category soon, but we’ll slot them here for now on the basis of a 23% chance in the forecast model consensus. They are just 4-7 in Big Ten play and rank 12th in the conference on résumé (66th nationally). But they also have a pair of Quadrant 1 wins, most recently adding what might have been their most impressive of the season with a 14-point road victory over Northwestern on Saturday. There’s a ton of work left to do, but Washington could run up wins against the easiest remaining Big Ten schedule.
Next game: vs. Iowa (Wednesday)
Long shots
None
SEC
9.5 expected bids (8.5 at-large)
Locks
Vanderbilt Commodores
Florida Gators
Alabama Crimson Tide
Arkansas Razorbacks
Tennessee Volunteers
Auburn Tigers
Updated: Feb. 1
Auburn has a number of good wins against a tough schedule and would be in solid shape if the season ended today, but its fate is complicated by one of the nation’s toughest remaining schedules (11th hardest, per the BPI). Despite losing to Tennessee on Saturday, there’s still plenty of cushion to work with — the model consensus actually gives the Tigers 95% at-large odds — but the BPI is projecting the Tigers to fall short of 20 wins. Minimizing losses in a brutal stretch over the next three weeks — with games against Alabama, Vanderbilt and Arkansas — will be crucial to Auburn maintaining its position.
Next game: vs. Alabama (Saturday)
Kentucky Wildcats
Updated: Feb. 1
Just as a 25-point loss at Vanderbilt seemed to dampen Kentucky’s recent hot streak, Saturday’s victory over Arkansas in Fayetteville elevated coach Mark Pope’s team back into «should be in» status. The Wildcats’ résumé (three Quadrant 1A wins) is on par with the rest of the SEC’s candidates in this category, and they have a 94% at-large chance in the model consensus. But only two teams in the country are projected for a tougher schedule over the rest of the season, which could make for an interesting ride.
Next game: vs. Oklahoma (Wednesday)
Texas A&M Aggies
Updated: Feb. 1
Most of the models in the forecast consensus consider the Aggies to be in outstanding shape (95% or higher) for an at-large bid, particularly after beating Georgia by 15 in Athens on Saturday. They are projected by the BPI to eclipse 22 wins, which ought to be enough to make the tournament when the smoke clears. They’re still tied for eighth out of what could be nine tournament-bound teams from the SEC in the résumé ranking average, though there’s a big gap between them and 10th-ranked Texas.
Next game: at Alabama (Wednesday)
Georgia Bulldogs
Updated: Feb. 1
The Bulldogs seemed to have risen above the bubble fray for a time, but recent losses to Ole Miss, Texas, Tennessee and Texas A&M dropped their odds. At No. 35 in the résumé rankings overall (tied for eighth in the SEC) and with a trio of wins against the BPI top 50, they might not need to worry too much. But the Dawgs’ schedule-strength leap (from No. 70 to this point to No. 13 from here on) is among the biggest of any high-major team, and they’re projected to lose more remaining games than they win.
Next game: at LSU (Saturday)
Work to do
Texas Longhorns
Updated: Feb. 1
Despite ranking in the mid-30s nationally in the predictive metrics, Sean Miller’s team is staring at a tough numbers game already after a handful of early defeats in SEC play (including Wednesday’s loss at Auburn). The Longhorns are 10th in the conference in the résumé rankings (52nd nationally), and their schedule strength jumps from 61st hardest looking back to 32nd hardest going forward. Four Quadrant 1 wins (including two for Quadrant 1A) are helpful, but they’ll have to compile even more while hoping the NCAA accommodates 10 SEC teams for the Dance.
Next game: vs. South Carolina (Tuesday)
Missouri Tigers
Updated: Feb. 1
The Tigers recently went cold, losing four of six to drop to 11th in the league in the résumé average, though they did beat Mississippi State on Saturday. They are projected to finish with 18.5 wins, though they do have a pair of Quadrant 1A wins (Florida and Kentucky) and four against the BPI top 50. But even if their résumé is on par with that of Texas, Missouri is much lower in the predictive metrics, so outdueling the Longhorns with more wins might be easier said than done.
Next game: at South Carolina (Saturday)
Long shots
LSU Tigers
ACC
8.0 expected bids (7.0 at-large)
Locks
Duke Blue Devils
Virginia Cavaliers
North Carolina Tar Heels
Clemson Tigers
Louisville Cardinals
Should be in
NC State Wolfpack
Updated: Feb. 1
The Wolfpack have won six of the past seven games — including their sole Quadrant 1A victory in overtime at Clemson — and are a top-25 team nationally in the predictive ratings, which bodes well for their momentum. They are closer to the bubble than their 34th rank nationally in résumé average (seventh in the ACC) indicates, but the models expect them to keep winning.
Next game: at SMU (Tuesday)
SMU Mustangs
Updated: Feb. 1
The Mustangs entered Saturday’s game at Louisville in fairly similar shape as the Cardinals and Wolfpack, but the road loss dropped SMU back some. The Mustangs still rank sixth in the conference (28th nationally) on their résumé, which is a great foundation. And while they are seventh in the ACC (36th nationally) in the predictive ranking, they have the nation’s 72nd-hardest remaining schedule, which is good for managing their status quo above the bubble.
Next game: vs. NC State (Tuesday)
Work to do
Miami Hurricanes
Updated: Feb. 1
The Hurricanes had bounced back from back-to-back defeats against Clemson (excusable) and FSU (less so) with wins over Syracuse and Stanford to stabilize their at-large odds in most of the models. But Saturday’s one-point home loss to Cal put another dent in those numbers. The Hurricanes are 38th in the résumé rankings, and they face the 70th-hardest remaining schedule. But they are directly on the bubble at No. 8 in the ACC in résumé ranking, so their at-large chances remain around a coin flip.
Next game: at Boston College (Saturday)
Virginia Tech Hokies
Updated: Feb. 1
The Hokies’ conditional at-large odds are fairly consistent, but that could be a negative, as every system has them pegged between 18% and 33%, meaning they are tracking to miss the field if their season continues at the same pace. While their record is similar to that of Miami — which has a much easier schedule (100th nationally versus 51st) — the difference is in future projection: Virginia Tech ranks borderline top-60 in the predictive metrics, and the BPI projects the Hokies will go 3-5 over their remaining regular-season schedule.
Next game: at NC State (Saturday)
California Golden Bears
Updated: Feb. 1
The Golden Bears were not exactly tracking for a strong tournament bid when they lost four of five to open ACC play, but wins over North Carolina and Miami have vaulted them into consideration. At No. 50 on the résumé list with a 31% consensus at-large probability, they would likely be on the outside looking in if it were already Selection Sunday. However, they do have three Quadrant 1 wins (including one Quadrant 1A victory) to their name. The Bears have the ACC’s easiest remaining schedule, which could see them end up with a surprisingly intriguing case by season’s end.
Next game: vs. Georgia Tech (Wednesday)
Long shots
Stanford Cardinal
BIG 12
7.3 expected bids (6.3 at-large)
Locks
Arizona Wildcats
Houston Cougars
Iowa State Cyclones
Kansas Jayhawks
Texas Tech Red Raiders
BYU Cougars
Should be in
UCF Knights
Updated: Feb. 1
With so many of the conference’s expected bids being effective locks — the six teams listed above each have 100% conditional at-large odds in the model consensus — the Big 12 bubble picture really comes down to which team could be the seventh in. The Knights are in the driver’s seat for that slot, especially after grabbing a signature win over visiting Texas Tech on Saturday. They rank 25th in the résumé average, while no other non-lock Big 12 team is even in the top 55. Pulling off a road upset at either Houston or Cincinnati in the next week-plus would go a long way in further solidifying UCF’s standing.
Next game: at Houston (Wednesday)
Work to do
Oklahoma State Cowboys
Updated: Feb. 1
Despite low tournament chances for much of early conference play, the Cowboys sneak in here on the basis of their No. 53 placement in the résumé ranking, which does rank eighth in the conference (slightly ahead of TCU). The models are low on Oklahoma State because its predictive ranking (No. 63) is so much worse than TCU’s, and the Cowboys face the Big 12’s second-toughest remaining schedule. But Steve Lutz’s team could make noise with some upsets.
Next game: vs. BYU (Wednesday)
TCU Horned Frogs
Updated: Feb. 2
After a recent losing skid in Big 12 play, the Horned Frogs are facing a deficit in both the record and résumé departments relative to UCF and Oklahoma State — and the rest of the tournament bubble, for that matter. Their case isn’t without merits, which include three Quadrant 1 wins (including a Quadrant 1A victory over Florida), and they face the Big 12’s easiest remaining schedule (59th hardest nationally). But in Sunday’s visit to Colorado, the Frogs came out flat and let the game spiral into an ugly 87-61 loss, putting a major dent in their at-large chances and risking a drop to «long shots» territory.
Next game: vs. Kansas State (Saturday)
Long shots
West Virginia Mountaineers
Baylor Bears
Cincinnati Bearcats
BIG EAST
3.4 expected bids (2.4 at-large)
Locks
UConn Huskies
St. John’s Red Storm
Should be in
Villanova Wildcats
Updated: Jan. 31
The Wildcats are right on the border of being a lock, with a 96% at-large chance in the model consensus, but there are enough meaningful differences between them and UConn and St. John’s to give at least some pause. While the other two are both within the top 20 in predictive ranking, Villanova is outside the top 30, which eats into its future projection some. The Wildcats are only 2-4 against the BPI top 50, as well. That being said, they play the Big East’s third-easiest remaining schedule and should clear 22 wins by regular season’s end, a projection that improved with Saturday’s 87-73 home win over Providence. It would take a lot for the Wildcats to not hear their names called on Selection Sunday.
Next game: vs. Seton Hall (Wednesday)
Work to do
Seton Hall Pirates
Updated: Feb. 1
Shaheen Holloway’s team pulled out of its recent four-game losing streak with much-needed wins at home over Xavier and Marquette, but the Pirates need a lot more where that came from. At No. 49 nationally in résumé average and with only a single Quadrant 1 win against NC State back in late November, they would likely be on the outs if the selections were made today. (Case in point: Only 22 of the 101 entries at BracketMatrix had Seton Hall making the tournament.) The Pirates should pick up some wins facing the 54th-ranked remaining schedule, but those will need to include signature ones.
Next game: at Villanova (Wednesday)
Long shots
Creighton Bluejays
Butler Bulldogs
MID-MAJORS
Locks
Gonzaga Bulldogs (West Coast Conference)
Should be in
Saint Louis Billikens (Atlantic 10)
Updated: Jan. 31
The Billikens have a great story in their second season with Josh Schertz at the helm and a cast of characters that includes bespectacled big man Robbie Avila. They are 21-1 after beating Dayton by 31 points on Friday, tracking for Sports-Reference’s best SRS rating in program history. They rank 20th nationally in the résumé rankings and 23rd in the predictive ratings, with an 89% consensus chance that is arguably underselling their résumé. (Don’t be surprised if they are upgraded to «lock» status soon.) It’s very hard to see the Billikens not making the field as an at-large team, if necessary.
Next game: at Davidson (Tuesday)
Utah State Aggies (Mountain West)
Updated: Feb. 1
Per the BPI, the Aggies are big favorites to get in as the Mountain West’s AQ with a 43% chance; no other team is above 17%. But if that doesn’t happen, Utah State should still be in good shape as the second team called from the conference. They rank 31st in the résumé rankings and have a Quadrant 1 win over Boise State, plus they came back from a double-digit deficit at home to beat bubble rival San Diego State on Saturday. The Aggies also are the third-best mid-major in the predictive ratings, trailing only Gonzaga and Saint Louis. Even during a season in which the Mountain West could secure only three bids, Utah State should be one.
Next game: at New Mexico (Wednesday)
Saint Mary’s Gaels (WCC)
Updated: Feb. 1
Saint Mary’s hasn’t missed the NCAA tournament in five seasons, so it’s tough to imagine that streak coming to an end with the Gaels sitting 33rd in the résumé rankings. Yet they’re here because they carry only a consensus 70% at-large probability, likely driven by the perennial question of how many WCC teams the NCAA can accommodate for the Dance after Gonzaga. One possible trouble spot: While their résumé is better than Santa Clara’s, the Gaels lost the first of the teams’ two head-to-head matchups. They also don’t have any Quadrant 1 wins — and likely won’t, unless they get revenge for Saturday’s loss at Gonzaga when the teams meet again on Feb. 28 at Saint Mary’s.
Next game: vs. San Diego (Wednesday)
New Mexico Lobos (MW)
Updated: Feb. 1
Seeking a third straight NCAA tournament trip for the first time in more than a decade, the Lobos have the inside track to being the Mountain West’s second-most-likely team. They have a better résumé ranking than San Diego State (38th versus 46th) and a slightly better predictive rating (44th versus 46th), and they face a fairly equivalent schedule from here on out. The primary blemish is their head-to-head loss at San Diego State on Jan. 17, which the Lobos won’t have a chance to avenge until they play host on Feb. 28.
Next game: vs. Utah State (Wednesday)
Work to do
Miami (Ohio) RedHawks (Mid-American Conference)
Updated: Feb. 1
The MAC hasn’t received multiple bids since 1998-99. Fittingly, that was the season Wally Szczerbiak led the RedHawks to the Sweet 16 after knocking off Washington and Utah in the first two rounds. Could history repeat itself? Along with Arizona, Miami is one of only two remaining unbeatens in Division I and ranks 40th on résumé as a result. The forecast models don’t quite know how to handle the RedHawks. It is true that they are a borderline top-90 team in the predictive ratings (Akron actually ranks higher in the MAC) that has run up an undefeated record against the 355th-hardest schedule in the nation. But wins are wins, and the BPI gives Miami an 8% chance to win out from here.
Next game: at Buffalo (Tuesday)
Santa Clara Broncos (WCC)
Updated: Feb. 1
The Santa Clara and Saint Mary’s comparisons will be constant down the stretch as we debate whether the WCC could get three bids — which has happened only once in the past 13 seasons — and how much the committee should value head-to-head wins versus overall résumé quality. The Broncos’ chances are roughly a coin flip at this point — at No. 48 in the résumé rankings with 61% consensus at-large odds — but they will get another crack at Saint Mary’s and Gonzaga later this month.
Next game: at Pacific (Wednesday)
San Diego State Aztecs (MW)
Updated: Feb. 1
Even if the bulk of the comparison points between San Diego State and New Mexico favor the Lobos, it is a close comparison nonetheless. The Aztecs are one of the bubbliest of bubble teams. They sit 46th nationally in résumé ranking, but their consensus at-large chance fell from 63% to 49% after Saturday’s loss at Utah State. That being said, the Mountain West could send at least three teams to the tournament; the conference hasn’t missed that threshold in five seasons. With a fairly large gap in résumé quality over the next-best league team (Nevada, at 58th), the Aztecs would figure to be in decent enough shape if they keep winning.
Next game: vs. Wyoming (Tuesday)
George Mason Patriots (A-10)
Updated: Feb. 1
The Patriots perennially flirt with a tournament entry but haven’t been back to the Dance since reaching the round of 32 in 2011. They’re 20-2 and rank 47th on the résumé list, which is prime mid-major bubble territory, but their consensus at-large probability is just 14%. If Saint Louis is effectively a lock, other A-10 teams such as George Mason and VCU must make their cases for the league to get a second bid (which has happened three times in the five years since the pandemic) if they don’t win the conference tournament.
Next game: vs. Duquesne (Wednesday)
VCU Rams (A-10)
Updated: Jan. 31
VCU hasn’t made back-to-back NCAA tournaments since the Will Wade era nearly a decade ago. The forecast models (13% consensus at-large) aren’t exactly bullish on that streak ending this season, in part because the Rams are 0-5 against Quadrant 1 opponents with only one remaining shot at changing that (at Saint Louis on Feb. 20). However, the Rams are squarely in bubble territory on overall résumé — they rank 50th nationally — and their remaining schedule is set up for plenty more wins, so they can certainly add to their case.
Next game: at Fordham (Tuesday)
Long shots
Nevada Wolf Pack (MW)
Tulsa Golden Hurricane (American)
Belmont Bruins (Missouri Valley Conference)
Boise State Broncos (MW)
Grand Canyon Lopes (MW)
Liberty Flames (Conference USA)
McNeese Cowboys (Southland)
Yale Bulldogs (Ivy League)
Akron Zips (MAC)
Glossary of terms
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Model consensus: A blend of the conditional at-large bid odds found via BartTorvik, TeamRankings, JThom Analytics and ESPN Analytics.
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Résumé ranking: An average of rankings in strength of record (SOR), NET, KPI and wins above bubble (WAB).
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Predictive ranking: An average of rankings in the Basketball Power Index (BPI), KenPom ratings (KP), Bart Torvik’s «Barthagorean» ratings, TeamRankings’ power ratings and Sports-Reference’s SRS ratings.
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Strength of schedule and projected records are according to the BPI.
