The Clippers and Cavaliers just pulled off a blockbuster, near straight-up trade: James Harden is heading to Cleveland while Darius Garland lands in Los Angeles. The move is a massive shake-up for fantasy basketball managers with either guard rostered, and the implications ripple through both rotations.
Let’s break down who wins, who loses and who (if anyone) should be grabbed off waivers right now.
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James Harden to Cleveland — Say what?!
Harden joins forces with Donovan Mitchell in the Eastern Conference, hoping to make one last quest for a championship and a big payday. Harden probably cares about the bag more than a trophy, but that’s a debate for another day.
Harden’s role as a primary facilitator won’t change with the Cavs. However, we could see him relinquish some ball-handling responsibilities to Mitchell, as the latter is more than capable of initiating offense. Still, with a healthy Evan Mobley (potentially), Jarrett Allen and a far deeper roster, I don’t think Harden’s assist rate will dip much from what we’ve seen this year. Harden should remain a top-15 asset in fantasy across formats, even though the usage may not be in abundance as it was in L.A. The scoring, however, is likely to drop off from 25 per game because he won’t have to take as many shots when the roster is at full strength. Short term, though, he’s getting buckets. Fantasy managers should hold.
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Darius Garland to L.A. — Buy-low window still cracked?
Garland’s nagging toe injury isn’t a great look at the moment, but the silver lining is that when he’s ready to return, he’ll command a higher usage rate than in Cleveland. It’s literally Kawhi Leonard, Garland and Ivica Zubac, so that’s a better situation for his scoring prospects, with some expected decline in his assist rate. Garland is a winner here, landing on a Clippers team that desperately needs a primary ball handler and scorer to help them stay in the hunt for the postseason.
When healthy, he’s a 20-4-6 guy who can get hot from 3 and is a top-50 player. Now he’s getting out of Cleveland, where he shared a backcourt with Mitchell, and into a situation where he has more runway.
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Who Else Benefits?
There’s no clear waiver wire pickup, but that doesn’t mean there isn’t fallout. Let’s look at Cleveland first.
Fantasy impact for Cavs
Donovan Mitchell: Already Cleveland’s leading scorer, and that won’t change with Harden in the building. Although his 5.8 assists could trickle down, now he’s getting even more usage with Garland gone. Mitchell’s usage rate was already elite, but removing another ball-dominant guard from the equation means more shots, more assists, more everything. If you’ve got him, you’re eating well. If you don’t, he’s untradeable at this point.
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Jarrett Allen: I love this for Allen because he has the potential to be a great pick-and-roll counterpart with Harden. Harden makes bigs better — look at Zu, Embiid, Capela — the list goes on. I’d be buying shares of Allen after this deal.
Evan Mobley: Unchanged. His fantasy value is secure as Harden will likely get him easier looks around the rim and put him in the optimal spots to maximize his efficiency. The stocks and rebounds are where Mobley helps fantasy managers most outside of his scoring.
Fantasy impact for Clippers
Kawhi Leonard: Kawhi’s usage is about to skyrocket. With Harden gone and Garland not the volume scorer Harden was, Kawhi becomes the clear-cut No. 1 option for LAC again. He’s been great all year, and now he’ll be shouldering a lot more since Garland isn’t ready to play as of Wednesday.
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Ivica Zubac: I’m a bit concerned that Garland, while an effective point guard, might take some time to get acclimated. Fortunately, there are a ton of opportunities and shots to go around. Zu’s been having a down year, but some new energy could ignite more production offensively from Zu.
