Purdue Basketball: First 10 Offensive Possessions vs Oregon

I was at a family event on Saturday, and Oregon vs. Purdue wasn’t a high priority at my sister’s oyster roast (oysters and beer were). Based on everything I’d seen out of Oregon while working on the preview, I wasn’t sweating watching the replay of this one. I figured it would look a lot like the Maryland game, and my preview indicated as much.

Needless to say, I was sweating out the last two minutes, huddled next to the fire barrel, watching my phone, as Fletch stepped up and kept me from looking silly. The good guys won in the end, and I was able to eat celebratory oysters rather than conciliatory ones. I knew it wasn’t an “all’s well that ends well” situation. Oregon lost its previous three games by an average of 17 points before playing like a Big 10 contender in what is supposed to be one of the most decisive home court advantages in college basketball.

All Big 10 Conference wins are beautiful. This one happened to be beautiful in the same way the dock was beautiful after I spent an entire day violently upchucking on a deep-sea fishing trip in “sporty” waters. Purdue survived the experience and lives to play another game, despite metaphorically vomiting all over the court; they ended up safe on the dock at the end of the day.

I thought I would try something a little different today. I sort of get stuck in a loop of writing previews during the basketball season, and don’t get much time to digest games. Since I missed this one live, I’m going to go back through the first 10 possessions of the game and give y’all my opinion.

First 10 Possessions vs Oregon

Possession 1

Outcome: Cluff Miss – rim finish

Thoughts

This is essentially the Zach Edey pick-and-roll offense from 2024, with Cluff playing Zach’s role. I hate it. Cluff ends up forcing up a shot in the lane surrounded by four defenders. He doesn’t draw a foul and doesn’t convert; meanwhile, Trey is standing in the corner as a non-shooter at the four. He doesn’t touch the ball on this possession, isn’t in a position to rebound the miss, and doesn’t provide any floor spacing. I don’t get it.

It’s clear Oregon is willing to let CJ beat them because they don’t pay attention to either of Purdue’s wings on this possession.

Possession 2

Outcome: Braden Make – pull up jumper

Thoughts

It’s the 1-5 pick-and-roll with Braden and Cluff again. Instead of forcing the ball to Cluff, Braden pulls up and hits his midrange jumper. Check out the wings, they’re basically zoning up the lane. In a way, TKR creates this shot because he’s not a shooter, and the bottom defender is glued to the paint. He’s not moving to challenge Braden’s shot or close out on TKR.

Braden finds the open pull up and accepts the two points Oregon is willing to give him.

Possession 3

Slide 1

PJ dials up the 1-5 high-pick-and-roll for the third time down the court. Braden attempts to force the ball to Cluff on the short roll, and again, I don’t get it. What exactly is Oscar supposed to do with this thing if it doesn’t get knocked away? His only option is to try to finish at the rim over two or three waiting defenders because he’s not going to be able to catch it and pass the ball on the move. Purdue is lucky it gets knocked away.

Outcome: Braden Make – open 3 off near turnover

Slide 2

Trey gets his first touch of the day as he collects the loose ball, holds it for a second, and then passes it back to Braden for the open three, which he jars.

By all rights, this should have been a Boilermaker turnover; instead, they end up with 3 points.

Possession 4

Outcome: Braden Make – pull up jumper

Thoughts

Does this look familiar? It should; the exact same thing happened on the second possession. It’s the 1-5 pick-and-roll with Cluff, and Oregon’s low defender has no interest in rotating out to TKR or stepping up to contest Braden’s shot. This isn’t a mistake; it’s a choice by the Oregon staff.

Braden sees the low man glued to the paint, rises, and hits a nice fade-away midrange jumper.

Possession 4

Outcome: Braden Miss – pull up three pointer

Thoughts

Braden misses a pull-up three off the 1-4 side pick and roll. TKR sets a solid screen, Braden comes off with a good look, and misses. I’m fine with the shot. Braden’s hot, and Oregon is taking away the TKR roll. Oregon’s center is completely ignoring Cluff and waiting for Trey at the rim.

When teams play like this against Purdue, Braden has to punish them. I like the aggression.

Possession 5

Side 1

CJ pulls down the rebound and pushes the ball in transition. I don’t know why this doesn’t happen more often. Oregon retreats to the basket, no one picks up Trey, and he’s able to step into his floater with confidence. This is the first time Trey has touched the ball in a position to attack, and he attacks. This is what you want from TKR on offense. If teams are going to form a three-man wall at the basket, this should be open all game.

Outcome: TKR Make – free throw line floater

Side 2

This is a shot Trey should take 100% of the time it’s offered. If you can’t make this on a regular basis, I’m not sure you should be playing college basketball. Trey can make this on the regs, and even if he misses, anything soft on the rim is going to get pulled down by Cluff. These are the type of shots that are easy to rebound, instead of the Scud missiles Purdue’s been launching at the rim from deep recently.

Trey gets to where he wants to go and puts up a shot he wants to take. That’s the best way to play basketball in my humble opinion

Possession 6

Outcome: Fletch Make – free throw line pull up

Thoughts

Side 1

Trey is involved in the offense again on this possession. He runs a dribble handoff with Fletch, and they let Fletch come off clean. I’m surprised Fletch wasn’t ready to rise and fire off the screen. Instead, he drives to the free throw line. Check out Trey’s defender, he’s headed back to defend the rim and doesn’t even try to contest the handoff.

Slide 2

Fletch has his defender on his hip, shows him the ball, lets him fly by, and pulls up for the money free-throw line jumper. One thing I’ve noticed early in the game is Oregon’s willingness to let its defenders guard their own man. You don’t see anyone paying attention to Loyer, other than his own defender. They’ll give up a contested two-point pull-up jumper all game.

Possession 7

Slide 1

After the initial 1-5 high pick-and-roll gets stuffed, Braden goes to the dribble handoff with Trey. I included several slides because I feel like this play encapsulates what’s good and not so good in Purdue’s offense right now.

Slide 2

The dribble handoff turns into the side pick-and-roll. This is a beautiful pass from Braden.

Slide 3

Trey pulls up for what looks like a shot he’s already taken and hit today. Instead, he noticed DJ under the basket and tries to throw the lob.

I HATE THIS DECISION

TKR was one of the best finishers in college basketball last season. This is a shot he has to finish; it should be an automatic 2 points because even if it doesn’t go in, DJ is in a perfect position for the rebound…WHY THROW THE LOB?

Slide 4

Trey throws the lob, DJ catches it, but can’t dunk it in the same motion. He lands and is immediately swarmed by 3 defenders. Purdue passes up what should have been a 70-80% shot by TKR for a shot with a similar probability, even if DJ catches it clean and tries to dunk it. Now DJ is trapped on the baseline, and despite Trey being wide open again, there’s no way to get him the ball.

Outcome – Gicarri Miss – spot up 3

Slide 5

DJ manages to throw it out to Loyer at the top of the key. He makes a touch pass over to Gicarri for a good open shot, which he misses. I’m not great at math, but I don’t like the idea of giving up what should be a sure 2 from Trey, for a 30-35% three from Gicarri.

Trey should be the finisher on this team. He has to take the shot in the third slide. I don’t care if DJ is open. When TKR is open, he needs to put it up. He’s on the floor for his scoring.

Possession 8 – Offensive Rebound of Possession 7

Slide 1

I’m a big TKR fan. I’m not sure if you picked up on it, but the first several possessions with him pinned in the corner, watching the offense was super frustrating for me. This is also frustrating. Trey pulls down a great offensive board.

He needs to go up, finish strong, and draw contact. This is an And-1 in most college games I watch.

Slide 2

Instead of going straight up, Trey is worried he’s going to get blocked and pumps the ball. If he goes up the first time, without the pump, he either scores or gets fouled. Now, with the pump fake, he should still be able to draw the foul. He has the guy in the air; if he goes straight up, it’s going to be a foul.

WHY WON’T HE GO INTO THE CONTACT AND GET TO THE LINE! THIS IS AN AND-1 IN EVERY GAME I WATCH!

Outcome: TKR Miss – offensive rebound put back

Slide 3

Instead of going up strong and through the chest of the jumping defender, he attempts to go around and flips the ball at the rim from a weird angle. He should still make this shot, but it’s twice as difficult as the two shots he didn’t take, either on the initial rebound or on the pump when he got the Oregon player in the air.

Subsequently, he misses it.

I don’t get it. That’s not how he played around the rim last season.

Possession 9

Slide 1

He’s the 1-5 high pick-and-roll with DJ. Trey is wide open in the corner, but he’s not a shooter. Instead, Braden finds Gicarri open on the opposite corner. If you’re looking for an explanation for Braden’s turnover issues. The easy pass is to Trey in the corner, but it’s worthless. Instead, he has to throw it all the way across the court to a marginal 3-point shooter. He can’t make the easy play on plays like this.

Outcome: Gicarri Miss – spot up 3

Slide 2

Here’s another open Gicarri 3. He’s going to hit this between 30-40%. He clangs this one off the back iron. Trey is lurking for a rebound, but it’s tough to rebound clanked 3’s.

Teams like Oregon will give Gicarri this shot. They can’t cover everyone, but they can encourage the ball to go where they want it to go. This is another example of Purdue taking the shot that the defense will live with. Gicarri can hit it, but when you look at the other guys on the court, that’s different from Fletch, who will hit it (*shots in January not included).

Possession 10

Slide 1

This is post is running long, but here’s the setup.

Braden grabs a rebound, pushes the ball up the court, and hits Gicarri on the wing in transition. It looks like it should be an easy two at the rim, but Gicarri doesn’t catch it clean. He fumbles it, but he still ends up in this spot with the ball.

What he does from this position goes against the entire point of the game. James Naismith would weep seeing a guy pass up an open layup to kick the ball back out for three, but that’s what Gicarri does in this spot. I have the same issue with this as I do with TKR’s offensive rebound miss.

GO UP STRONG OFF TWO FEET AND DRAW THE FOUL.

WHY? WHY!?! WHY!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

Slide 2

This has to be two points or a foul. Why is Gicarri kicking it out to Braden? Why is Braden even calling for it? I’d refuse to catch a kick out pass from this position out of principle. The goal is to put the ball in the basket, why is Gicarri not facing the basket?

This is the second time in the first 10 possessions where Purdue turns down a good shot for nothing. They don’t even turn down a good shot for a better shot. Gicarri turns down this shot, and Purdue ends up with this.

Slide 3

Gicarri turned down an open attempt of the basket, and Purdue ends up with a DJ post up. DJ doesn’t want the ball in this spot. Lucky for Purdue, Oregon pokes the ball away before something bad happens.

Slide 4

Outcome: Fletch Make – 3-pointer off inbounds play.

Thoughts

In literature, this is called foreshadowing. The best possible outcome for Purdue in this game was Oregon knocking the ball out of bounds. This was a simple double screen from TRK and DJ that Oregon can’t deal with and Fletch knocks down the corner three.

Overall

My main takeaway from the first 1o possessions of the game is that despite Purdue scoring at an efficient rate, nothing was easy. They scored 11 points in 10 possessions, mainly on mid-range jumpers or three pointers. Two of their 10 possessions ended with shots within five feet of the basket, and Purdue missed both.

When you can’t score inside, it’s difficult to dominate the game. I’m a bigger fan of mid-range jumpers than most, but they need to be seasoning for the offense, not the main course. An offense built around scoring at the rim that incorporates open mid-range jumper shots works. An offense built around mid-range jumpers can work, but there’s always going to be significant variation in the offense from game to game depending on who is hitting open shots.

In some games, it doesn’t matter because everyone is hitting. In this game, Oregon made it clear from the start that they were willing to let Purdue beat them anyway, but in the paint, and they almost pulled off a massive road upset because Purdue needs to score there to be effective.

I’m not sure why the 1-5 pick-and-roll involving Cluff and DJ has taken over as the staple of the offense, but that’s what the early action in the Oregon game favored, with Trey spotting up in the corner like Heide or Colvin from last season. Honestly, I’d rather have Heide, or Colvin, or Benter in that role than Trey. This Purdue team is going to have to win with offense, and TKR is the only guy who has shown elite finishing ability around the rim, as long ago as that seems now. I know for a fact the Cluff/Jacobson pick-and-roll isn’t getting Purdue past the second round of the tournament. It struggled to get the Boilermakers past a bad Oregon team with nothing to play for other than pride on Saturday.

This needs to be a team built around Trey, Braden, and Fletch. The further they get away from that, the worse it becomes. This game shouldn’t have been close. Oregon needed Purdue’s help, and the Boilermakers obliged by taking shots Oregon wanted them to take.

If I have time tomorrow, I’ll give you another 10-play stretch towards the end of the game, but I think even in 10 seemingly efficient possessions to start the game, you can see the cracks that allow teams like Oregon to hang around despite having a dearth of talent.

Purdue’s Big 3 has to step up and lead the way tomorrow. Nebraska will try to shut them down and make guys like Cluff, Cox, and Harris beat them. Matt Painter can’t allow that to happen. It’ll be an interesting game to watch.

Whichever team plays its game wins. Not sure who that’s going to be just yet.