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Tim Bontemps
This week, ESPN unveiled its NBA Summer Forecast, analyzing all potential developments across the league, including awards considerations, championship projections, and the ups and downs throughout the NBA.
The staff cast votes on where all 30 NBA teams might finish in the end-of-season rankings, providing an overview of how the Eastern and Western Conferences could potentially unfold. Nonetheless, a unanimous opinion isn’t necessarily the right one. (As an example, our awards projections for 2024-25 failed to hit.)
With that thought in mind, here’s an examination of five teams that might outperform their expected win totals this season, along with five that could fall short by next spring.
Five to surpass expectations
Oklahoma City Thunder
Forecast: 64-18
Last season, Oklahoma City became the 22nd franchise in league history to achieve at least 65 wins. Among these, only two teams managed to reach or exceed that figure in the subsequent season: the 1995-96 and 1996-97 Chicago Bulls (72 and 69 wins, respectively) and the 2014-15, 2015-16, and 2016-17 Golden State Warriors (67, 73, and 67 wins, respectively).
Chet Holmgren and Isaiah Hartenstein returned after missing a combined 75 games last season. When either big man was active, OKC posted an impressive 59-10 record — a pace for 70 wins.
Could OKC emerge as the third team to clinch 70 victories? It’s uncertain, but the Thunder certainly have the potential to secure the league’s top record and become the third team to win at least 65 in consecutive seasons. Coaches, scouts, and executives ESPN consulted this summer aren’t wagering against a Thunder repeat.
LA Clippers
Forecast: 50-32
The Clippers surprised many last season with 50 wins after being seen as a fringe play-in squad. Paul George had transferred to the Philadelphia 76ers and Kawhi Leonard played only 37 games, highlighting coach Tyronn Lue’s effective management of the roster during the season.
This offseason, the Clippers transformed Norman Powell, Amir Coffey, Ben Simmons, and Patty Mills into Bradley Beal, Chris Paul, John Collins, and Brook Lopez, establishing LA as one of the NBA’s deepest rosters and earning kudos from rival scouts and executives for their offseason moves.
This lineup contrasts sharply with what OKC has assembled: Only three rotation players for the Clippers are under 30, none are below 27, yet they can mitigate age and injury concerns by leveraging their coaching and depth. This should enable them to push forward and surpass last year’s win total.
Golden State Warriors
Forecast: 48-34
Similar to the Clippers, the Warriors are projected to match their win total from the previous season and possess an older roster (though we are anticipating an incomplete lineup as Golden State awaits the resolution of Jonathan Kuminga’s restricted free agency situation).
This selection hinges on the growth of the Stephen Curry-Jimmy Butler III duo. Amid Butler’s tumultuous last season, Golden State went 22-5 in the 27 games Curry and Butler were on the court together. Indeed, there’s a significant age and injury risk (including potential newcomers Al Horford, De’Anthony Melton, and Gary Payton II, all of whom appear poised to join Golden State once the Kuminga matter is settled).
As long as Curry, Butler, and Draymond Green maintain relative health, this seems like a favorable wager to exceed.
Miami Heat
Forecast: 39-43
Referring back to Butler, it might be unexpected to see his former team on this list. Amid Butler’s trade discussions, Miami had a lackluster 37-45 record last year, eventually making an appearance in the play-in tournament as a 10th seed before being ousted by the Cleveland Cavaliers in the first round.
However, Miami acquired Powell — who averaged 21.8 points per game last season with the Clippers — which ought to assist the Heat’s offense, ranked 21st. Additionally, the Heat were 14-28 in clutch situations last year, marking the third-lowest winning percentage in the NBA. This, paired with a weakened Eastern Conference, positions Miami as a strong candidate to surpass their forecast.
Toronto Raptors
Forecast: 33-49
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Toronto’s last season ended with a record of 30-52 as they aimed to enhance their draft pick, with Brandon Ingram not playing a single game with this team after a midseason trade from the New Orleans Pelicans.
It’s tough to envision a situation where the Raptors find themselves in a favorable win position, especially in the Eastern Conference, unless there’s a significant increase in player injuries.
When the Raptors began dismantling this roster a few seasons back under their then-general manager Masai Ujiri, it was intended to be a swift transition back toward contention. The moves made since — including acquiring and extending Ingram — align with that intention. Teams typically do not enter the season in the luxury tax, as Toronto is, while anticipating to miss the play-in.
Five to fall short
Minnesota Timberwolves
Forecast: 51-31
Minnesota has surpassed 51 victories only twice in its franchise history: in 2004 and 2024. Last season, they reached the Western Conference finals for the second consecutive time but only won 49 games, finishing sixth overall.
This Timberwolves squad lost Nickeil Alexander-Walker to free agency this summer, necessitating younger players like Terrence Shannon Jr. and Jaylen Clark to carry a heavier burden while still relying on the aging Mike Conley and Rudy Gobert. If either veteran misses time, the Timberwolves lack a reliable alternative to fill their shoes. Naz Reid, who signed a five-year, $125 million contract this summer, is not equipped defensively to cover for Gobert’s absence, and last year’s eighth pick, Rob Dillingham, is still a major uncertainty regarding his ability to step in for Conley.
Driven by Anthony Edwards, Julius Randle, a flexible roster, and Chris Finch’s coaching, Minnesota will still be challenging next spring. However, given the strength of the Western Conference and uncertainties in the lineup, surpassing last year’s total of wins may prove challenging.
Detroit Pistons
Forecast: 47-35
Last year was a remarkable season for the Pistons, who elevated their win count from 14 to 44, witnessed Cade Cunningham becoming an All-NBA player, made playoff appearances for the first time since 2019, and won a playoff game for the first time since 2008.
Such impressive seasons are often followed by a consolidation period, and Detroit approached the summer as an organization that was ready for this reality. Duncan Robinson took over for Tim Hardaway Jr., Caris LeVert stepped in for Malik Beasley, and the now-healthy Jaden Ivey is expected to fill Dennis Schroder’s rotation spot after his move to the Sacramento Kings in free agency. Yet, this is a squad that will lean on younger players like Ivey, Ron Holland II, Jalen Duren, and Ausar Thompson to continue broadening their roles around Cunningham.
Detroit ought to comfortably contend for a top-6 playoff slot. And given the current state of the East, the Pistons might not even require the projected three-win improvement to achieve that.
Dallas Mavericks
Forecast: 44-38
The Mavericks are set to be one of the NBA’s most intriguing teams this year, with the integration of Cooper Flagg into NBA life, utilizing some truly large lineups, the ongoing aftermath of the Luka Doncic trade, and Kyrie Irving’s potential comeback from a torn ACL sustained in March. Currently, the squad only has one dependable ball handler in D’Angelo Russell, who is adequate as a rotation player at the point guard position but better suited for a backup role.
This situation, along with Anthony Davis’ health concerns — he spent six weeks sidelined due to a groin injury after his debut with Dallas and then underwent surgery to correct a detached retina in July — makes achieving a 44-win season a larger challenge in the difficult Western Conference.
San Antonio Spurs
Forecast: 44-38
Victor Wembanyama is already becoming known as the league’s premier defensive asset in his second season.
However, despite Wembanyama’s brilliance, this Spurs roster still appears to be in development rather than a polished unit. This starts with the guard trio of De’Aaron Fox, Dylan Harper, and Stephon Castle.
The Spurs need to determine how to integrate all three (each talented but inconsistent shooters) effectively on the court and coordinate their play with Wembanyama. This poses one of the most significant challenges recognized by observers throughout the league, seeing as it could heavily influence how the Spurs build their roster moving forward.
This will be a considerable task for first-time head coach Mitch Johnson. Wembanyama could potentially exceed this win total based on his remarkable skills alone, yet the uncertainties within San Antonio lead one to believe taking the under is the safer option.
Portland Trail Blazers
Forecast: 39-43
Portland concluded last season with 36 wins following a strong finish that featured victories against opponents who were resting for the playoffs or aiming to optimize their draft slots.
This summer, Portland traded Anfernee Simons for Jrue Holiday, but there’s uncertainty regarding where those extra wins will materialize. The Blazers are trying to blend veterans such as Holiday and Jerami Grant with a youthful core comprising Scoot Henderson, Shaedon Sharpe, and Donovan Clingan. The Blazers are also hoping the defensive improvements evident in the second half of last season — as they ranked fourth in the NBA from January 15 onward — will hold up against the much poorer showing (ranked 25th) in the initial half of the 2024-25 season.
Portland does have intriguing young talents like Deni Avdija, Toumani Camara, and Clingan to help build that defense, and swapping Simons for a solid defender in Holiday should also benefit the team. However, in a challenging conference, the expectation is that Portland will struggle to better last season’s results.
