Barnwell predicts the NFL playoff field: 14 teams that will make the postseason, plus a Super Bowl pick

It’s time to embrace possible mistakes. After an extensive six-month break from the NFL, Week 1 has finally arrived. Just like everyone else, I’ve had the entire summer to reflect on free agency and the draft, absorb all the preseason predictions, and form strong beliefs about what is expected to unfold in 2025. I’ve finalized my selection of 14 playoff teams and my Super Bowl choice.

My approach, however, is somewhat unique. As other analysts and fans make summer playoff forecasts, they often remain more cautious, primarily favoring teams that played in the previous playoffs. While certain teams regularly appear in the postseason, unexpected events can easily occur during a 17-game season. If you check ESPN BET right now, 13 out of the 14 teams that reached the playoffs last season are favored to return, with the Steelers being the only exception.

This piece will instead analyze historical trends to inform my predictions in a different way, even if it leads me to select teams that are less favorable compared to last year’s top picks. We are now entering the 24th year of the 32-team structure, and although the NFL has added an additional regular-season game and a third wild-card slot, teams have largely remained within the same divisions and playoff format. We can reasonably anticipate the fluctuation from year to year and how the playoff picture is likely to evolve. What if I based my selections on that pattern?

This begins with a crucial fact: Between 2002 and 2023, an average of 7.9 out of the 14 teams that made the playoffs—or that would have made it as the 7-seed in a 14-team playoff scenario starting in 2002—returned the next year. I’ll round up to eight. This gives me my first guideline: I can only choose eight teams from the 2024 playoff field to return.

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There are additional rules based on historical performance that I will outline shortly. But first, let’s reflect on last season, which turned out to be a bit of a disaster in the best possible way. I utilized that eight-team rule for projecting the 2024 playoff bracket, which was not an ideal time to do so. Ten teams returned to the playoffs, marking just the fourth occasion since 2002 that 10 of the top seven seeds from each conference achieved this. All four AFC division champions repeated, which is only the third time that happened across multiple divisions in 44 instances.

On the flip side, the top two seeds in the NFC from 2023—namely, the 49ers and Cowboys—failed to make it to the playoffs: they went from being the best in the conference to missing out entirely. Only two of the six teams I assumed would exit the postseason (the Dolphins and Browns) actually did not return. Importantly, I had the Eagles missing the playoffs, which turned out to be drastically incorrect. I’ve covered these errors in detail in my earlier column likely to see declines, so I won’t revisit that here.

Despite being undeniably mistaken, my miscalculations from last year highlight why considering these matters is intriguing. In hindsight, it seems ludicrous to expect the Eagles not to make the playoffs. Yet it would have been an even wilder claim to predict that the Niners—a consistent playoff contender coming off a Super Bowl appearance—wouldn’t return. Yet that’s precisely what occurred, largely due to significant injuries they suffered.

Predicting the Bears to make the playoffs was clearly misjudged, as evidenced by their abysmal 1-9 finish following a heartbreaking loss to the Commanders on Oct. 27. Nevertheless, teams that bring in the right young quarterback can ignite and advance faster than anticipated, as demonstrated by Washington, who transitioned from 4-13 to 12-5 and a place in the NFC Championship Game. The Commanders were among those on my radar for improvement in 2024, but I underestimated their defensive strength. Ultimately, Jayden Daniels outperformed consensus first-round pick Caleb Williams significantly as a rookie.

So, to sum it up, 2024 was disappointing. I plan to approach it differently this time. If eight of last year’s playoff teams are returning, which eight should be prepared for January? And what historical insights can guide us to identify which unexpected teams might rise and join the playoff mix? Let’s dive into projecting how the 2025 playoff landscape could unfold.

Jump to:
Eight 2024 division champions
Six 2024 wild cards
Three long shots to consider
Three other new playoff contenders
Barnwell’s Super Bowl prediction

2024 division champions: Will they return?

As mentioned, I’m applying some additional restrictions to further mimic historical patterns. While it’s improbable for a playoff bracket to resemble historical averages precisely, this educated guess will utilize them as a reference for my 2025 playoff conjectures.

Quickly: In the eight-division era, how frequently have division champions returned to the playoffs? With teams like the Tom Brady-led Patriots and Patrick Mahomes’ Chiefs winning division titles annually, it may seem that the vast majority of champions consistently make postseason appearances.

most likely team to struggle — I’m not inclined to select any other team to come out on top in the AFC West.

Even if the Chiefs aren’t as dominant in close games, the addition of two true left tackles, Josh Simmons and Jaylon Moore, signifies major advancements from what was a shaky situation last season. Concerns linger regarding secondary depth due to Justin Reid’s departure, but the Chiefs should remain highly competitive. While they likely won’t repeat a 15-2 record, anything below 11 wins would be a significant surprise.

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My selection for 2025: In the playoffs (AFC East victors)

The Bills are yet another team looking to secure their sixth consecutive AFC East championship. They stand out with a broader gap between Sean McDermott’s team and the rest of the division on paper, providing the Bills with a safety net for potential setbacks. Teams achieving exceptional turnover margins often see a downturn, which raises concerns as Buffalo had a league-best plus-24 turnover differential last season. However, a combination of being positioned ahead and McDermott’s coaching style converts this defense into one that frequently defies expectations.

Defenses predicated on generating takeaways typically struggle to maintain consistency year-to-year, yet the Bills have been the exception to this rule. They topped the league in defensive turnover rate in both 2023 and 2024 and haven’t dropped out of the top seven since 2019, even with numerous personnel changes on defense during that period. While it may be unreasonable to expect Josh Allen and the offense to have just eight turnovers for an entire season again, even with a regression in turnover margin, Buffalo ought to remain at the forefront of its division.

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My selection for 2025: In the playoffs (NFC East victors)

The NFC East provides a prime illustration of how blindly choosing division champions can lead to errors, as no team has successfully defended its division title since the Eagles did so in 2003 and 2004. If you sense that fate is conspiring each year in this context, I completely understand; remember how the Eagles reached the Super Bowl in 2022, started 10-1 in 2023, and still failed to secure the division crown by finishing 1-5 down the stretch, paving the way for the Cowboys to take over.

I am slightly more doubtful about the Eagles repeating than the general public. There are legitimate concerns about their defensive depth. Linebacker Nakobe Dean won’t start the season due to a torn patella. Moreover, 44% of the defensive snaps logged by Eagles players last season were given to those no longer on the 2025 roster, including key figures like end Josh Sweat, cornerback Darius Slay, safety C.J. Gardner-Johnson, and tackle Milton Williams. With the most expensive offense in NFL history on the other side, the Eagles couldn’t realistically replace those veterans with similar caliber talent over the offseason.

Nonetheless, general manager Howie Roseman can rely on one of the league’s most exciting young groups of defensive talent. The major defensive collapse Philadelphia experienced during the second half of 2023 is unlikely to recur with Vic Fangio now at the helm. Besides an unusual string of injuries, there’s little to worry about offensively, as 10 out of 11 starters are back. I also believe that the gap between the Eagles and the rest of the division may be more significant than it appears, which should allow them to smoothly secure another NFC East title.

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My selection for 2025: In the playoffs (AFC North victors)

Assuming Lamar Jackson maintains his health, the Ravens are going to secure numerous victories. He holds an impressive 70-24 record as a starting quarterback, averaging 12.6 wins per 17 games. Throughout his seven seasons with the Ravens, he has claimed four division titles in the five seasons where he wasn’t hindered by a late-season injury, falling just one game short of a fifth in 2020. Baltimore managed a 3-8 record without Jackson down the stretch in both 2021 and 2022, which deprived them of what could have been two additional divisional titles.

Last season, Jackson wasn’t the only one who stayed healthy. The Ravens had the best health record in the league regarding adjusted games lost on both offense and defense, as reported by the FTN Football Almanac. In fact, the 2024 Ravens were the least-injured team since 2017. This often goes unnoticed—no fan boasts about the health of their team after the season—but it’s exceedingly difficult for the Ravens to replicate that success.

This team’s potential remains high enough to make them favorites in the AFC North again; any decline is likely to arise due to injuries.

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My selection for 2025: In the playoffs (NFC wild card)

With my four division champions already secured, I was left to select one of the remaining four winners as a wild-card team. Among those four, the Lions became the clear choice; they could regress from their 15-win season yet still have plenty left to clinch a playoff berth. Despite nearly losing their entire pass-rushing and cornerback corps by the time their defense finally disintegrated in the playoffs, inspired contributions from defensive coordinator Aaron Glenn and an engaging offense stimulated by coordinator Ben Johnson consistently propelled the Lions forward each week. They trounced weaker teams and reliably triumphed against stronger ones.

The Lions are likely to remain among the league’s elite, although their luck in one-score games might not carry over for another 7-2 record. The defense can’t possibly replicate last season’s injury woes, but the offense was among the league’s healthiest, and there are genuine concerns regarding the revamped interior of their offensive line. It’s hard to envision a situation where the Lions finish without experiencing some loss after losing both Glenn and Johnson to head coaching assignments. That may just be enough to let one of the teams trailing them in the NFC North get a chance, though I won’t disclose which team quite yet.

Thus, I will project three of 2024’s division champions to miss the playoffs altogether. Last season, two of them escaped that fate. Can they defy expectations again?

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My selection for 2025: Out of the playoffs

I was doubtful about the Texans last season. While they succeeded in retaining their division title and winning a playoff game for the second consecutive year, I stand by my initial skepticism. The excitement surrounding the acquisitions of wide receiver Stefon Diggs and running back Joe Mixon overshadowed an underwhelming offensive line. General manager Nick Caserio did amazing work with a few of his young secondary additions, while edge rusher Danielle Hunter impressed in his debut season with Houston. However, a team that was one of the oldest in 2023 lacked sufficient breakout candidates.

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The Texans recorded a zero-point differential, dropped from 12th to 16th in DVOA, and went 5-6 outside of their own division. However, while they didn’t perform well, their competition in the AFC South posed no major challenges. The Texans posted a 5-1 record within the division, with four of those victories coming by four points or fewer. Some of those encounters seemed closer than they truly were, but they failed to distinguish themselves from the Colts and Jaguars consistently.

It’s entirely possible that the AFC South may lack formidable challengers this year as well, but I might (perhaps foolishly) be more hopeful about the Jaguars and Titans looking competent. Caserio has entirely revamped the offensive line, but the Texans are counting on young players who have underperformed in the league, untested rookies, and veterans deemed surplus in other places.

In a vacuum, absent the requirement to select three division champions to miss the postseason, I would likely still consider the Texans as the preferred choice to win the AFC South, mainly due to C.J. Stroud’s promising potential at quarterback. However, since I need to choose three division victors to exclude entirely, Houston appears more susceptible than any of the five teams I selected earlier.

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My selection for 2025: Out of the playoffs

The challenge in predicting the Rams arises from uncertainty. If we could guarantee a healthy season from 37-year-old quarterback Matthew Stafford, the discussion about the Rams’ playoff prospects would be much simpler. Sean McVay has an impressive track record: The Rams reached the playoffs six times in eight years under his leadership, winning four division titles in that span.

While the Rams assert optimism about Stafford’s back as Week 1 approaches, the organization downplayed the injury throughout the offseason, only for Stafford to miss practices consistently. Additionally, left tackle Alaric Jackson endured blood clots in his legs, leading to him missing the majority of training camp before returning to practice last week.

The Rams are structured heavily around a few star players, and if those key players struggle to stay fit, we could witness a repeat of the issues faced in 2022, where their offensive line suffered and numerous top earners were sidelined by November. I’m uncertain if an injury crisis is on the horizon for the Rams or any team in the league, but my concerns regarding Stafford are substantial enough to prevent me from including the Rams in the playoff bracket where I must choose three division winners who will be home in January.

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My selection for 2025: Out of the playoffs

Here’s where the constraints of my format create discomfort, forcing a choice that doesn’t sit well with me. The Buccaneers were undeniably the top team in the NFC South last season. They finished two games clear of the Falcons for the division lead and boasted an 11.1-win Pythagorean expectation, indicating they performed better statistically than their 10-7 record suggested. They ranked 11th in DVOA amid a division where the three other teams finished 20th (Falcons), 22nd (Saints), and 30th (Panthers). If you asked me to predict the NFC South champion outside this exercise, I would choose the Bucs.

Tristan Wirfs, Chris Godwin Jr., and Jalen McMillan, coupled with new offensive coordinator Josh Grizzard, may not measure up to the productivity of their predecessors, Dave Canales and Liam Coen, both of whom excelled in their roles. A defense that was average last season doesn’t compensate for this gap. While the Bucs are competitive, any potential NFC South winners will have made significant improvements at critical positions—more on that team later.

Thus far, we have five of the 14 playoff teams locked in. Following a thorough examination of the previous year’s division winners and the corresponding trends concerning their playoff chances, it’s time to move forward to the teams that were wild cards last season.

What about the 2024 wild-card teams?

Since 2002, when accounting for that seventh-ranked team in each conference as a pseudo-playoff participant, 53% of wild-card teams returned the subsequent year. This includes teams escalating to victory in their divisions and those who once again filled the fifth, sixth, or seventh spots. Four of the six wild cards from 2023 managed to reach the playoffs again in 2024, with the exceptions being the Browns and Dolphins.

Keeping this 53% statistic in mind, we’re nearing a convenient figure for the next rule in selecting the playoff bracket: I can only choose three out of the six wild-card teams from 2024 to re-enter in 2025. Three are in, three are out. I’ll alternate between those that make it and those that don’t.

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My selection for 2025: In the playoffs (NFC North champions)

As I began finalizing this article last week, the Micah Parsons trade surprisingly knocked the Cowboys out of my provisional playoff bracket and propelled the Packers above their competition in the NFC North. As I noted in my reactions to the Parsons trade, the Packers finished just one rank behind the Lions in DVOA, indicating their competitiveness last season. With a snap-weighted average age indicating they’re the youngest team in the league, the roster harbors numerous potential breakout players.

Losing a bit of star power may pose an issue, but they compensated by adding Parsons, one of the premier defensive players in the league. Provided that Parsons can avoid significant time off due to his back injury, the Packers acquired a player who transformed the Cowboys into the best NFL defense while on the field and the worst while he was sidelined. The move came at the cost of only one player from the current roster, defensive tackle Kenny Clark.

Of course, the Packers have flaws. Their run defense presents a major question after losing Clark and T.J. Slaton Jr. Jordan Love has been unreliable, and although there are reasons for optimism regarding the version of him we witnessed during the latter half of 2023 and 2024, it’s entirely possible we witness another year characterized by high highs and low lows from the 26-year-old quarterback. If the post-Toyotathon iteration of Love shines for 17 games, however, Green Bay might lead the league. With doubts about the Lions and Vikings, I’m favoring the Packers for the NFC North title.

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My selection for 2025: Out of the playoffs

Vikings fans are weary of the discussions surrounding their records in close contests, but with transitions from 9-0 to 4-8 to 8-1 across Kevin O’Connell’s first three seasons, it becomes a significant part of the dialogue. Understanding these trends is critical, making it challenging to envision the Vikings maintaining their prior level and achieving similar results.

Can they sustain what was displayed last season? Their fantastic defense ranked first in turnovers, as the Vikings jumped from 19th in turnover rate to second. Such a transformation is hard to maintain, especially with significant changes in their secondary. This was the oldest team on a snap-weighted basis, and after securing several newcomers through free agency and making only three top-100 selections over the last two years, it is improbable that O’Connell’s squad can grow significantly younger this season.

They will, however, naturally get younger at quarterback, transitioning to J.J. McCarthy, who missed his rookie season with a knee injury. The Vikings heavily invested in their line during the off-season, which may lessen their dependence on McCarthy compared to prior quarterbacks like Sam Darnold and Kirk Cousins. Yet uncertainty remains regarding McCarthy’s capability to surpass his predecessors, and I suspect that defensive regression combined with a less favorable fate in close contests may push the Vikings towards mediocrity in the NFC.

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My selection for 2025: In the playoffs (AFC wild card)

One of last season’s favorable stories within my prediction writings, the Chargers represented a typical example of a team whose underlying performance and offseason changes hinted at substantial improvement. Though it wasn’t always smooth sailing for Jim Harbaugh’s squad, the Chargers capitalized on Justin Herbert and the league’s top-scoring defense to achieve an 11-win season before ultimately bowing out to the Texans in a frustrating playoff exit.

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Honestly, the distance between the Chargers and the team they’re keeping out has narrowed considerably due to injuries. Left tackle Rashawn Slater is already sidelined for the season (ruptured patellar tendon), as is linebacker Junior Colson (shoulder). Guard Mekhi Becton, who missed training camp due to an undisclosed injury, has faced knee problems in both the 2021 and 2022 seasons. The status of new addition Najee Harris is uncertain as he was involved in a fireworks accident that resulted in an eye injury. If this sounds like a concerning start to the season for the Chargers, you’re not mistaken.

I wouldn’t be surprised if the defense regresses this year, even with Jesse Minter appearing to be among the top coordinators in the league and potentially nearing a head coaching opportunity. Even if setbacks occur, however, I have more trust in Herbert and Harbaugh managing to clinch wins through the offense than I do in the next team on my list.

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My selection for 2025: Out of the playoffs

In 2024, the Broncos featured the league’s most effective defense on a per-play basis, leading all teams in expected points added (EPA) per snap. Nearly every key player on that unit is returning, and the Broncos have added Dre Greenlaw and first-round choice Jahdae Barron to bolster their ranks. Yet we know defensive performance is generally more volatile compared to offense from year to year. Even during their dominant 2024 showing, the Broncos had the highest week-to-week variance for any defense, as reported in the FTN Football Almanac. The defense should remain competent, yet Vance Joseph’s crew probably won’t top the league in 2025.

Can the offense compensate for any decline? Perhaps. There were promising signs for Bo Nix last season, but the Broncos dealt with one of the softest schedules regarding opposing defenses, and Nix’s success typically aligned with less challenging matchups. Coach Sean Payton endeavored to protect Nix from tough situations and managed the offense with the strong defense to limit his dropback attempts when trailing. When he was required to pass extensively—against teams like the Bills and Ravens—results were less favorable.

The Broncos went 1-7 versus teams with winning records before their Week 18 blowout victory at home against a shorthanded Chiefs squad; they also struggled in close contests, going 1-6 in games determined by seven points or fewer—including a game that could have been a decisive victory over the Chiefs at Arrowhead Stadium. Although many narrow games seemed tighter than they were due to Denver scoring late without altering the final result, it’s hard for me to count on Nix advancing them forward. Thus, the Broncos narrowly miss my playoff picks.