The two teams with the best records in all of MLB meet up in a potential playoff preview when the Philadelphia Phillies battle the Milwaukee Brewers in Game 2 of a three-game set in Milwaukee. The Brewers at 85-54 have the best record in baseball, while the Phillies are next up at 80-58. Philly battled back from a 4-0 deficit to win the series opener 10-8, and the Phillies can lock up a series win on Wednesday.
The pitching matchup is an intriguing one with Milwaukee lefty Jose Quintana (10-5, 3.69 ERA) taking on Philadelphia righty Aaron Nola (3-7, 6.47). Quintana has been great this year but is coming off his worst start of the season: six earned runs in 3.2 innings against the Diamondbacks. Nola, meanwhile, has had a rough year in large part due to injury.
Top sportsbooks have set Nola’s total pitcher strikeout prop at 5.5 and Quintana’s at 4.5. The SportsLine Projection Model, which simulates every MLB game 10,000 times, rates Quintana Over 4.5 as a 3.5-star play. Nola’s prop is one of the top recommendations of the day from the model. The model did have a top recommendation for Shohei Ohtani against the Pittsburgh Pirates, but he’s been scratched from his start on the mound. He will, however, still be in the lineup as the Dodgers’ designated hitter.
Here are the model’s top three pitcher strikeout props for Wednesday’s MLB slate, two of which are 4.5-star ratings.
Casey Mize Over 3.5 strikeouts vs. Mets (1:10 p.m. ET)
Rating: 4.5 stars
Model projection: 4.9 strikeouts
This is the model’s best pitcher strikeout prop for Wednesday. This is a more-than-reasonable total for Mize (12-5, 3.95), who has gone Over 3.5 strikeouts in 17 of 23 starts this season. According to Baseball Savant, the Tigers righty has a 20.3 strikeout percentage this season, which is the best of his career. Mize also has been a much better starter at home this season, with a 3.61 ERA.
Clay Holmes Over 3.5 strikeouts vs. Tigers (1:10 p.m. ET)
Rating: 4.5 stars
Model projection: 4.7 strikeouts
The model also likes the other starter in the Mets-Tigers matinee. Holmes (11-6, 3.60) has gone Over 3.5 strikeouts in 15 of 27 starts this season, including four of his last five. He also has pitched well lately, going 2-0 with a 2.76 ERA and 10 strikeouts in 16⅓ innings over his last three starts. On Wednesday he will face a Detroit ballclub that averages 8.81 strikeouts at the plate, the sixth highest average in the majors.
Aaron Nola Over 5.5 strikeouts vs. Brewers (7:40 p.m. ET)
Rating: 4 stars
Model projection: 6.0 strikeouts
Despite a down year for the veteran right-hander, the SportsLine Projection Model expects Nola to have a big game against the Brewers with a projection of six strikeouts. Nola is having the worst year of his career with an ERA north of 6, but is K/9 rate of 9.3 is better than it was last year and is just a tick below his career mark of 9.9.
