Making difficult lineup choices every week can be the most daunting aspect of the fantasy football experience. When you find yourself caught between two comparable players and can’t decide whom to start, opt for the player with the better matchup.
However, precisely how can one assess the best (and worst) matchups for the week?
The matchup rankings offer a schedule-independent approach to assess positional matchups weekly, placing all 32 opposing defenses in order of their favorability for opposing players at all four skill positions (quarterback, running back, wide receiver, and tight end). Instead of depending on seasonal totals, we adjust points-allowed statistics to indicate how each defense performed relative to the difficulty of their faced schedule. This yields a more balanced method for evaluating the quality of individual matchups.
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«Adj. FPA,» or adjusted fantasy points allowed, indicates how much above or below players’ weekly PPR fantasy point averages that defense held opponents at that position. A positive figure signifies a favorable matchup; a negative figure signifies an unfavorable one. Furthermore, keep in mind that teams frequently utilize multiple running backs and wide receivers in a game, and these averages encompass all of a team’s personnel at that position.
Lastly, a note of caution: Matchups are merely one factor in my ranking formula. Not every beneficial matchup should be taken advantage of, nor should unfavorable matchups automatically be dismissed. For a comprehensive guide on whom to start and sit each week, refer to our weekly rankings provided by the ESPN fantasy team.
Quarterbacks
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Matchups to highlight: Bo Nix, Denver Broncos (vs. Dallas Cowboys). He played a key role in the Broncos’ remarkable comeback against the New York Giants last week, scoring 25.58 of his career-high 39.96 fantasy points in the closing six minutes of the game, and now he faces by far the most advantageous matchup for his position. The Cowboys have allowed an opposing quarterback to score over 25 fantasy points in four of their seven games, and they are the second team in NFL history to have an opposing quarterback score at least 17.5 points in each of their first seven games. The Cowboys’ explosive offense will pose a challenge for even the esteemed Broncos’ defense, as indicated by the two teams’ week-high total of 50.5, giving Nix ample opportunities to make the most of this matchup.
Others to consider: Jordan Love, Green Bay Packers (at Pittsburgh Steelers); Caleb Williams, Chicago Bears (at Baltimore Ravens).
Matchup to sidestep: Drake Maye, New England Patriots (vs. Cleveland Browns). He’s demonstrated the finest performance of his young career over the past six weeks, averaging 21.9 fantasy points in that time, and his mobility makes him a solid choice for fantasy lineups during a week with six teams on a bye. Nonetheless, Maye’s upcoming two matchups are clearly the most challenging on his 2025 schedule (CLE, ATL), and they’ll test the extent of his growth. Since Lamar Jackson scored 26.30 points against them in Week 2, the Browns’ defense has restricted opposing QB starters to an average of 10.9 PPG. The Patriots are favored by a considerable margin (-7.5), suggesting Maye may not need to contribute extensively in this game.
Rico Dowdle, Carolina Panthers (vs. Buffalo Bills). In a significant bye week, fantasy managers may have to look deeper into the player pool, and a running back in a clear committee may not catch their interest. However, in Dowdle’s case, his standout recent form — 76.9 fantasy points with league-leading figures in rushing yards over expected (+156) and 15 mph runs (16) in the last three weeks — sets him apart when analyzing this matchup. The Bills’ defense has struggled against the run this season, particularly against speedy running backs. They’ve been susceptible to the league’s highest rates of explosive rushing plays (19.0%) and carries of 15-plus mph (30.7%), according to NFL Next Gen Stats.
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Others to consider: D’Andre Swift, Bears (at Ravens); J.K. Dobbins, Broncos (vs. Cowboys).
Matchup to avoid: Quinshon Judkins, Browns (at Patriots). Coming off a breakout performance, scoring three rushing touchdowns and 26.4 fantasy points in Week 7, much of it stemmed from the favorable matchup against the Miami Dolphins. Over the previous three weeks, the Dolphins have allowed 81.6 combined points to Dowdle, Kimani Vidal, and Judkins. (A side note for Bijan Robinson managers, he faces the Dolphins next!) The Patriots, on the other hand, allowed 26.2 points to De’Von Achane in Week 2, but haven’t seen another individual running back exceed 13.1 points otherwise. They also rank as the fourth-best defense in limiting explosive rushing plays (6.4%), which will create tougher conditions for Judkins on Sunday.
Matthew Golden, Packers (at Steelers). The rookie should be viewed as a sleeper in this bye-laden week, primarily due to his role as the Packers’ main slot receiver. In the two games following their Week 5 bye, he has run 53% of his routes from the slot and played at least 70% of the offensive snaps in each game, marking the first time he has been so frequently on the field. The Steelers, meanwhile, have given up the seventh-most fantasy points per game to slot receivers, largely a result of nickel cornerback Jalen Ramsey’s struggles. The six-time Pro Bowler has permitted an astounding 69.9 fantasy points on 31 targets as the closest defender this season, as per NFL Next Gen Stats.
Others to consider: Calvin Ridley and Elic Ayomanor, Tennessee Titans (at Indianapolis Colts); Courtland Sutton, Broncos (vs. Cowboys).
Matchup to avoid: Jaylen Waddle, Dolphins (at Atlanta Falcons). The Dolphins’ offense has been chaotic, boasting the fifth-lowest offensive efficiency rating in the team’s three games since Tyreek Hill’s season-ending injury, and they now face one of the most formidable defenses this season in the Falcons. Thanks to the performances of CBs A.J. Terrell Jr. and Mike Hughes, who have surrendered a combined 67.3 fantasy points on 51 targets as the nearest defenders, the Falcons have limited only two wide receivers to more than 11.1 points all season. (Emeka Egbuka, 23.6, in Week 1; and Deebo Samuel, 20.1, in Week 4.)
Mason Taylor, New York Jets (at Cincinnati Bengals). He is once again a valuable bye-week fill-in, showcasing an 18.3% target share that ranks in the top 10 at his position. The Bengals have been rather lenient towards opposing tight ends, helping raise rookie Harold Fannin Jr.’s fantasy standing after his breakthrough in Week 1, as well as rejuvenating the Steelers’ duo of Pat Freiermuth and Jonnu Smith recently. This season, the Bengals have allowed the most fantasy points per game (22.3), adjusted FPA (+7.3), and three games of 15 or more points to the position, with their 2.19 points per target provided to TEs placing third highest.
Matchup to avoid: Zach Ertz, Washington Commanders (at Kansas City Chiefs). He will continue to be a crucial part of the Commanders’ offense, particularly if multiple top wide receivers are out due to injuries, but a potential switch to Marcus Mariota, if Jayden Daniels’ hamstring injury keeps him sidelined, could diminish Ertz’s fantasy potential. Ertz garnered a 16.4% target share and only 12.9 fantasy points during Mariota’s starts in Weeks 3-4, and in his limited role last week, he received just one target among Mariota’s 10 passing attempts. The Chiefs also present one of the toughest matchups at the position, as they have seen only one tight end surpass 10 points against them all season (Sam LaPorta’s 16.5 in Week 6).
