Cristiano Ronaldo is racing towards the coveted tally of 1,000 career goals, and it’s more of a question of when, not if, the Portugal and Al-Nassr star ascends to four figures.
Ronaldo is currently at 950 goals, having scored in Saturday’s 2-0 triumph over Al Hazm. He inked a two-year contract with Saudi Pro League club Al-Nassr in June, extending his stay with the Riyadh team through the conclusion of the 2026-27 season.
Only an extended injury could prevent the 40-year-old from reaching his 1,000th goal during this timeframe. With Ronaldo still finding the net at nearly one goal per game for Al-Nassr, we’ve analyzed the statistics and can now forecast (with assistance from ESPN’s Global Sports Research) that Ronaldo — barring injuries — will net his 1,000th goal before the end of 2026, most likely achieving this in late November or early December of that year.
How can we be so sure? While there are few assurances in football, Ronaldo scoring for both club and country has emerged as one of the most dependable and foreseeable events since he netted his initial goal of 950 at the age of 17 for Sporting CP in a 3-0 victory over Moreirense in Lisbon on October 7, 2002.
– O’Hanlon: Ranking every team that could win World Cup
– Ogden: Meet New Caledonia, the tiny nation two wins from World Cup
– Cristiano at 40: Unpacking Ronaldo’s stunning career
Twenty-three years later, Ronaldo is ahead of Lionel Messi by 39 goals as the leading men’s international goal scorer with 143 goals — his latest being both goals scored in Portugal’s 2-1 World Cup qualifying win against Hungary earlier this month — and it’s hard to argue against him achieving yet another significant milestone, 150 international goals, during the upcoming 2026 FIFA Men’s World Cup next summer.
Messi has just finalized a new three-year contract with Inter Miami that ties him to the MLS franchise until the end of the 2028 season, and he too could surpass the 1,000-goal mark before retiring. The 38-year-old has netted 889 career goals for Barcelona, Paris-Saint Germain, Inter Miami, and Argentina, but with Ronaldo leading by 60 goals, it raises the question: does anyone genuinely believe Messi will reach 1,000 goals before Ronaldo? The resounding answer to that is a definitive no, which is another assurance we can make.
Since Ronaldo’s debut for Sporting as a substitute in a 0-0 Champions League qualifying match against Inter Milan in August 2002, he has netted 950 goals in 1,293 matches, resulting in a career goals ratio of 0.73 per game. As previously mentioned, Messi is the only contender — albeit a distant one — to potentially score 1,000 career goals before Ronaldo. However, could Erling Haaland, Kylian Mbappé, and Lamine Yamal surpass whatever total Ronaldo records in the future? Yamal, 18, has the advantage of time, but with just 33 goals in 137 matches at a rate of 0.24 goals per game, the Barcelona and Spain forward would require at least another two decades to replicate Ronaldo’s achievements. Haaland (0.84 goals per game) and Mbappé (0.74) both possess superior goal ratios compared to Ronaldo, with 324 and 396 career goals respectively, yet if you ask these players if they are ready to play past 40 to catch Ronaldo, it seems a daunting task for the 25-year-old Manchester City forward and the 26-year-old Real Madrid star respectively. The remarkable aspect of Ronaldo is that he is now scoring at a rate exceeding his career average, with his last 100 goals for club and country coming at 0.92 goals per 90 minutes and his previous 50 at 0.93 per 90 minutes. Clearly, by joining the Saudi Pro League and AFC Champions League, Ronaldo is competing at a less intense standard than throughout his career spent in Europe’s premier leagues. This likely explains why he reached 950 goals in just 57 matches for Al-Nassr and Portugal. Nevertheless, he has still netted more Pro League goals this season than Karim Benzema, Darwin Núñez, Ivan Toney, and Kingsley Coman. Assuming he maintains his prolific scoring for Al-Nassr and continues to be a reliable scorer for his national team, ESPN’s forecast suggests Ronaldo is on track to achieve 1,000 goals within 13 months. This was the same duration in which he accumulated his last 50 goals; projecting forward, another 13 months would likely see Ronaldo have around 54-64 matches to net his next 50 goals. A deep run in the AFC Champions League with Al-Nassr and a similarly fruitful World Cup with Portugal next summer could provide Ronaldo with additional opportunities to come nearer to 1,000 goals. As things stand, if you want to mark in your calendar the date to celebrate Cristiano Ronaldo’s 1,000th career goal, aim for late November and early December of next year.
