Arsenal: Will Arsenal’s end-of-season form haunt them again?

The pressure in the title race was always going to come for Arsenal, and maybe after the 1-1 draw at Brentford this is where it turns up a notch for Mikel Arteta’s side.

It must be pointed out that they are in the best position of all clubs chasing the title, four points clear at the top of the Premier League and with just three losses all season. But with Pep Guardiola’s Manchester City the side chasing them, that gap does not feel huge.

Part of that is down to the fact that if Arsenal had beaten the Bees they would have been six points clear and had the chance to extend that to nine points with a win over Wolves next Wednesday, with the game taking place before Manchester City are next in action.

Another factor is that Manchester City have produced incredible runs of form to chase down titles in previous years and the Gunners have finished second for three successive seasons.

With 12 games to go, history does not favour Arsenal with their end-of-season form.

In the past five seasons, only on one occasion have Arsenal won 10 of their final 12 Premier League matches in a campaign.

In those seasons, the Gunners have never won more points in their final 12 games than the team that went on to win the title.

With the noise around Arsenal and their history under Arteta when trying to win the title, the Gunners boss was asked if he needs to ensure that his side do not panic and remain focused on their task.

«That’s what we have to do,» he said. «I mean we are going to be willing and preparing to win every single match and the only thing that we can do is focus on that and raise the levels collectively and individually to be better than the opponent every week.

«It’s just the things that we have to do, that’s the most important thing.»

Before Manchester City’s dramatic win against Liverpool on Sunday, it looked as though Arsenal would be nine points clear.

But after Erling Haaland’s late penalty to secure the three points and their win against Fulham on Wednesday, the gap was reduced to three points and the pressure was put back on to the Gunners.

When asked if playing after City is bringing a new pressure to his team, Arteta said: «I don’t think so, I think we played well after them a few times this season and we have won games.»

Of the 17 games in which Arsenal have scored first in the Premier League this season, the draw at Brentford was just the second time they have failed to win, along with their loss to Manchester United in January.

Midfielder Declan Rice could not have put it better: «This is a rollercoaster of a season.

«You can’t be naive to think this is going to be easy. We are playing against the best teams week in, week out. We have to keep pushing and believing in ourselves, controlling the controllables.

«We have to block out the outside noise. We have done that really well. People are going to talk up the title race and Arsenal but we have a really calm group.»

The Gunners came into this match without centre-back William Saliba, who missed out through illness.

Saliba is a key part of this Arsenal side and his partnership with Gabriel Magalhaes is a big reason why they have conceded just 18 goals in the league this season.

Since the start of 2022-23, Arsenal have a 68.6% win rate and average 2.3 points per game with Saliba playing in the Premier League (W83 D24 L14), compared to a 42.1% win rate and 1.6 points per game on average without him (W8 D7 L4).

The Gunners are also without Kai Havertz, who has picked up a muscle injury after only just returning from a long-term knee issue last month.

As well as those two changes, Arteta brought Viktor Gyokeres and Piero Hincapie into the starting XI at Brentford.

But the Gunners have only won two of the past seven Premier League games in which they’ve made four or more changes to their starting XI from the previous match (D4 L1).

Former Arsenal defender Martin Keown said on TNT Sports: «That’s what people were shouting at me as I was coming off the pitch, ‘Man City are coming to get you’, but at the end of the day Arsenal are four points clear.

«You get knocked down, you get up again. Let’s see who the fighters are and let’s see who is going to win this. They could have put down a big marker if they won the match, but it never looked like that was going to be the case.»

In two of their three second-placed finishes in recent years, Arsenal have finished behind Manchester City, which is why the talk about this title race carries so many emotional scars for supporters.

«What Man City have got is the know-how and the recent history behind them,» Peter Crouch added on TNT.

«That can lead to nervous tensions around the stadium, certainly around the back end of the season.

«Having someone like Man City and Pep behind you, you are always going to be looking over your shoulder. But you would much rather be in Arsenal’s position.»

Crouch believes Arsenal will never have a better chance to win the title.

«Man City are not the Man City of old, Liverpool aren’t, Manchester United aren’t what they have been, Chelsea the same,» he said. «There is a lack of quality in the top areas [of the league]. The bar has been set high in the past years.

«Now is a real opportunity for Arsenal. If they don’t get over the line, there needs to be more questions answered.»