Every event in sports carries added significance when perceived through a betting lens. From pivotal injuries to milestone achievements and beyond, the news cycle will incessantly and profoundly influence the sports wagering landscape.
Our betting buzz dossier, with insights from David Purdum, Doug Greenberg, and others, aims to give fans an insight into the sports betting narratives that are shaping discussions.
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Oct. 21: Impact of LeBron James’ injury on Lakers’ spread, win total
David Purdum: The Los Angeles Lakers changed from favorites to underdogs in their first game against the Golden State Warriors, following the announcement that LeBron James would miss the beginning of the season due to sciatica affecting his right side.
Prior to the injury announcement, the Lakers were established as 3-point favorites over the Warriors. Following the news, the line shifted to Warriors -2.5.
«I don’t believe LeBron alone warrants that many points,» Jeff Sherman, an experienced NBA oddsmaker with the Westgate SuperBook in Las Vegas, conveyed to ESPN. «He’s not worth five and a half points.»
Sherman noted that the line shift in the Warriors-Lakers match is more noticeable due to the spread initially being relatively low. «When you approach a pick ‘em line, it slices through seamlessly. [The movement] is more influenced by the initial spread positioning,» he remarked.
James, 40, is anticipated to be sidelined until mid-November, as reported by ESPN’s Shams Charania. Sherman approximated that James could miss around 12 games and adjusted the Lakers’ season-win total accordingly.
The Lakers’ win total was estimated at roughly 48.5 at sportsbooks over the summer leading up to the announcement of James’ injury. Sherman indicated that he believed the adjustment should reflect a decrease of around three wins, but overall market movement was minimal.
«There was hardly any adjustment,» Sherman indicated.
He adjusted the Lakers’ win total down to 46.5 and accepted some bets on the over but maintained the number at 46.5 heading into Tuesday’s opener.
In spite of James’ early absence, the Lakers have remained a highly favored choice at the SuperBook, where more wagers have been placed on them to secure the title than any other team by a «wide margin,» Sherman explained.
Oct. 17: Who wants to win the AFC North?
Doug Greenberg: Few divisions in the NFL have unfolded as unexpectedly as the AFC North this season. On Thursday night, the divisional intrigue took another turn when the struggling, Joe Burrow-less Cincinnati Bengals shocked the Pittsburgh Steelers outright as five-point underdogs.
Entering the week, the Steelers were the favored team to win the division (-160) and were strong favorites to reach the playoffs (-275), as per ESPN BET. Following the defeat, their odds lengthened notably for the AFC North (+115) and dropped significantly in the playoff race (-140). Meanwhile, the Bengals, reinvigorated with Joe Flacco commanding the offense, greatly enhanced their odds, shifting from 16-1 to +600 for the division, and from 11-1 to +400 to secure playoff entry.
Concurrently, the Baltimore Ravens, on a bye week following a disheartening 1-5 start, capitalized on the Steelers’ loss without any effort of their own, adjusting from +160 to +130 to win the AFC North at ESPN BET; Baltimore was as high as +190 for the division earlier in the week at other sportsbooks.
At BetMGM, the Ravens did not see a shift from their +105 playoff odds, but the book noted they are the most wagered team in the league to fall short of playoff qualification (-125) by handle. The Ravens began the season as Super Bowl co-favorites (+650) and currently sit at 18-1, according to ESPN BET lines.
Thursday’s outcome definitely resonated with bettors, who began to shy away from betting on Pittsburgh for the division: ESPN BET reports that since the conclusion of the game, the Ravens captured a leading 36% of the handle to win the AFC North, while the Bengals attracted 32.5% of the wagers. The Steelers, conversely, garnered only 14.5% of the tickets and 1% of the money.
As for the Cleveland Browns? They remain a considerable 35-1 to claim the division, yet they appear to be heading towards a matchup projected to have the season’s lowest total… once more. With news of potentially extreme wind and rain in Cleveland, the Browns’ game against the Miami Dolphins has plummeted from an opening 40.5 to 36.5 as of Friday afternoon.
With numerous sportsbooks reporting substantial action on the under (upwards of 98% of handle at BetMGM), this total could dip below the league’s lowest 35.5 that the Browns drew in Week 5 against the Minnesota Vikings. The Browns were also involved in the second-lowest total game of the season against the Steelers in Week 6 (37.5).
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Oct. 14: MNF caps off tumultuous Week 6 for NFL MVP futures
Doug Greenberg: An argument can be made that the Atlanta Falcons‘ surprise victory over the Buffalo Bills on Monday night has been the most impactful result for NFL futures so far this season, concluding a significant week for future movements.
The most substantial shift occurred in the MVP betting market, which has a new frontrunner for the first time since Week 2. Following two consecutive losses for his Bills, defending MVP Josh Allen dropped from first to third on ESPN BET’s odds board, now at +325. Conversely, Kansas City Chiefs quarterback Patrick Mahomes has surged to the lead at +200, while Tampa Bay Buccaneers QB Baker Mayfield has continued his rise up the leaderboard, now at +300 for second-best odds.
Allen started the season tied for second in the ranks but wasn’t widely favored among bettors. Mahomes has gained traction in terms of betting activity, leading in handle at ESPN BET since the season began and since Week 4. The two-time MVP hit a long of 25-1 in the market on Sept. 28.
However, the public’s current favorite appears to be Mayfield, who debuted at 30-1 as he seeks his first MVP accolade. Since the season’s start, the 2018 first overall pick has attracted more tickets at DraftKings and ESPN BET than any other player, holding the highest handle at DraftKings throughout this period and the most wagers at ESPN BET since Week 4. Mayfield’s figures are also notable at BetMGM, prompting the book to identify him as its biggest liability.
«Baker Mayfield’s performance has propelled him into serious contention, while Josh Allen’s consecutive losses have caused a bit of a drop,» BetMGM trading manager Christian Cipollini communicated to ESPN via email. «Mahomes’ acquisition of Rashee Rice could provide him with the necessary boost, yet we still have a long road ahead.»
Cipollini also mentioned, «there’s no distinct frontrunner this early in the NFL MVP race.»
While the leading three candidates are beginning to distinguish themselves from the pack, New England Patriots quarterback Drake Maye is quickly rising in the ranks: having started the season at 50-1 for NFL MVP, Maye now shows 25-1 ahead of Sunday’s games and sits at 11-1 at ESPN BET as of Tuesday afternoon.
The ripple effect
Maye’s breakout season has propelled New England to a direct win over Buffalo, a 4-2 record, and first place in the AFC East. The latter is significant from the betting perspective, as the Patriots are now merely +185 to capture the division, a significant reduction from +550 at the onset of the season.
The Bills, after suffering losses to New England and Atlanta, are still -225 for the AFC East, yet that has lengthened from -350 prior to the season and an astonishing -2500 leading into Week 4. Buffalo’s downturn, coupled with Kansas City’s resurgence, has also impacted the Super Bowl betting market: The Bills are now co-favorites with the Chiefs at +600, having entered the week as solo favorites at +500, according to ESPN BET odds.
