After two exhibitions and a regular season opener away from Provo, BYU plays at home for the first time Saturday night when they host Holy Cross. The game tips off at 7pm MT on ESPN+.
BYU and Holy Cross by the Numbers
Holy Cross record: 0-1; 89-79 loss at Providence
BYU record: 1-0; 71-66 win vs Villanova
KenPom Prediction: BYU 95, Holy Cross 63 — BYU 99.8 % win probability
The Crusaders are lowest rated KenPom team on BYU’s schedule, ranked 341 out of 365 D1 teams. Their 10-point loss to Providence moved them up 11 spots from their preseason ranking of 352.
Holy Cross was picked to finish 9 out of 10 teams in the preseason Patriot League Poll. They aren’t expected to be very good, but they have continuity from last season; four of their starters started games for them last season.
The one thing Holy Cross can do is shoot the three ball. Holy Cross was ninth nationally last year in three-point shooting (38.5%), and three of their starters shot over 40% from three. The Crusaders’ problem is that they did just about everything else poorly — they turned the ball over, didn’t grab offensive rebounds or get to the free throw line, and were terrible defensively.
Holy Cross was a 23.5 underdog at Providence but played admirably in a 10-point loss. They were down by 17 at halftime and cut the lead to 6 with a minute left before Providence closed the game out.
Providence has some good shooters, but they are a small team and give up a lot on the glass and in the paint. The tallest player out of their top 7 guys is 6-foot-7. Providence outscored Holy Cross 44-24 in the paint and shot 24-36 (67%) on two-point field goals.
Holy Cross Players to Watch
Tyler Boston, Guard — Holy Cross’ 6-foot point guard scored 25 points and dished out 6 assists at Providence. He was 10-11 from the free throw line.
Joe Nugent, Guard/Wing — The 6-foot-6 wing averaged 12.5 points last season and shot 43% from three. He scored 10 points versus Holy Cross.
BYU should dominate this game. I fear what AJ Dybantsa and Rob Wright can do to this Holy Cross defense. They have no rim protector on the roster and are a bad defensive team. AJ could probably go for 40 if he wanted and Rob Wright will get good looks at the rim, but we’ll see how long Kevin Young plays his top guys. I imagine he’ll want to get some of his bench guys some run so he can get a good look at them in live action.
BYU’s gonna win this handily, but I want to see how BYU defends the three. That is the one area Holy Cross does well, so it will be a good chance for BYU to get on shooters in transition and be disciplined on defense. Another area I want to see BYU do well is shooting the three ball on their end. BYU was 5-15 versus Villanova, so getting guys like Richie Saunders, Dawson Baker, Tyler Mrus, Rob Wright, and others knocking down threes would be a good confidence boost.
I think BYU covers, but I’ll take Holy Cross to cover since they could get a some cheap threes late to get a backdoor cover.
Prediction: BYU 93, Holy Cross 61
