🏆 CFP tiers, title odds and a simulated champ

Two top-10 teams fell on the road to unranked opponents. A third fell to a lower-ranked team. No. 5 Georgia flirted with disaster, as always, and just because nothing is allowed to make sense in the ACC, No. 15 Virginia and No. 16 Louisville also thought hard about face-planting before rallying.

Week 10 didn’t give us quite as many absolute disasters as it could have, and the damage was mostly contained to the increasingly chaotic ACC. And with two-thirds of the 2025 college football season done, we now shift into Playoff Hyperdrive.

Let’s look back on Week 10, with help from the construct I used for the Week 10 preview: Playoff Tiers.

Updated playoff tiers

The first College Football Playoff rankings of the season come out Tuesday, and using a combination of the Allstate Playoff Predictor and odds driven by my SP+ rankings, we can pretty easily bunch teams into groups of playoff likelihood. The tiers didn’t change much this weekend, though conveniently, each team that lost fell into the tier below.

Tier 1

Indiana (9-0, 99.5% average playoff odds) — def. Maryland 55-10 on Saturday
Ohio State (8-0, 99.3%) — def. Penn State 38-14
Texas A&M (8-0, 95.7%)

With A&M off and Indiana and Ohio State winning by a combined 93-24, nothing changed here. These are the three most likely teams to make the CFP, and though the playoff committee could overthink and try to talk itself into ranking Alabama ahead of A&M or something because of ranked wins, the Aggies deserve the edge because of their road win over Tier 3’s Notre Dame and the extremely important fact that they didn’t lose to a 4-4 Florida State team, as the Tide did.

Tier 2

enhanced metrics to help evaluate schedule strength,» however. What does that mean in practice? I have no idea. So, in anticipation of Tuesday’s release, let’s look at four rankings for the teams most likely to be ranked by the committee: (1) their AP poll ranking, (2) their ranking in this BCS-ish formula, (3) their strength of record ranking and (4) their résumé SP+ ranking.

Allstate Playoff Predictor has the answers. Check back every week as the odds are updated following that week’s games.

Hypothetical title odds based on the above bracket:
1-seed Ohio State 30.6%
2-seed Indiana 28.2%
6-seed Oregon 12.4%
3-seed Texas A&M 7.4%
4-seed Alabama 6.8%
9-seed Texas Tech 5.6%
5-seed Georgia 3.0%
10-seed Notre Dame 2.4%
7-seed Ole Miss 1.7%
8-seed BYU 1.1%
11-seed Louisville 0.4%
12-seed North Texas 0.2%

And because odds alone aren’t very satisfying, I grabbed a random simulation from the batch of 10,000. Here’s what’s officially going to happen this postseason. You can stop watching now.

(Please don’t stop watching.)

FIRST ROUND
Texas Tech over BYU in Provo
Georgia over North Texas in Athens
Oregon over Louisville in Eugene
Notre Dame over Ole Miss in Oxford

QUARTERFINALS
Rose Bowl: Texas Tech over Ohio State
Sugar Bowl: Alabama over Georgia
Cotton Bowl: Texas A&M over Oregon
Orange Bowl: Indiana over Notre Dame

SEMIFINALS
Peach Bowl: Alabama over Texas Tech
Fiesta Bowl: Indiana over Texas A&M

FINALS
Indiana over Alabama in Miami

If you Google Indiana’s Curt Cignetti, as he told you to a couple of years ago, it might soon tell you that he’s a national title-winning coach.

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5 other random thoughts from Week 10

Damn, Mario. By Mario Cristobal’s standards, his late-game management against SMU wasn’t atrocious or anything, but after SMU tied the score with 25 seconds left, Miami got the ball back with a timeout in hand and a quarterback the school paid loads of money for … and the Hurricanes kneeled out the clock to go to overtime. Granted, Carson Beck’s dreadful overtime interception, which set up SMU’s winning touchdown, certainly didn’t help his cause, but it doesn’t matter how much money you shell out if you’re still going to play by «Three things can happen when you pass, and two are bad» rules in the 2020s.

But since Cristobal took over at Miami in 2022, his Hurricanes have lost five games as double-digit favorites; only Alabama can match that total, and (A) Bama has been a double-digit favorite 50% more often and (B) three of the Tide’s five such losses came in a small cluster of games last season. Cristobal has lost at least one such game each year that he has been in charge. Death, taxes and Miami suffering a catastrophic loss it should have put away.

Deion Sanders stepping down at the end of the season?

DeSean Jackson was a spectacular hire. Remember in the offseason, when Norfolk State (Michael Vick) and Delaware State (DeSean Jackson) went the Deion Sanders/Eddie George route and hired celebrated former players as their head coaches? Vick was the bigger headline-grabber — he’s Michael Vick, after all — and he has struggled in Year 1, as you might expect from a first-time head coach. Norfolk State went 4-8 and finished 101st in FCS SP+ last season; the Spartans are just 1-8 and 115th this season. They have a couple of semi-winnable games left against Morgan State and Howard (they will likely get drubbed by N.C. Central this week), but it has been a year of growing pains.

For Jackson and his Hornets, however, it has been the opposite story. DSU went 1-11 and finished 123rd in SP+ last season, and it hasn’t finished higher than 5-6 or 83rd over the past decade. Last Thursday’s win over Vick’s NSU, however, brought the team to 6-3 and 54th overall. The Hornets have already upset N.C. Central, and if they can win a toss-up game at home against S.C. State in Week 13, they’ll win their first MEAC title since 2007 and score their first Celebration Bowl bid. It’s looking like Jackson was one of the best hires of last offseason’s coaching carousel.

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This week in SP+

The SP+ rankings are updated for the week. Let’s take a look at the teams that saw the biggest change in their overall ratings. (Note: We’re looking at ratings, not rankings.)

Moving up

Here are the 10 teams that saw their ratings rise the most this week:

Fresno State: up 3.7 adjusted points per game (ranking rose from 93rd to 78th)

East Carolina: up 3.4 points (from 61st to 48th)

Florida State: up 3.3 points (from 34th to 24th)

Louisiana Tech: up 3.3 points (from 76th to 67th)

Western Kentucky: up 3.1 points (from 88th to 72nd)

Buffalo: up 2.9 points (from 99th to 87th)

James Madison: up 2.8 points (from 50th to 36th)

Arizona: up 2.8 points (from 43rd to 31st)

UTSA: up 2.7 points (from 70th to 65th)

North Carolina: up 2.5 points (from 98th to 89th)

The ACC’s oddities didn’t stop at the games involving ranked teams. Duke’s win over Clemson was the most statistically unlikely result of the week — Duke somehow won despite a mammoth efficiency disadvantage (success rate: Clemson 58.3%, Duke 37.5%) — and in Tallahassee, Florida State somehow transferred all of its bad vibes to its opponent. Wake Forest collapsed under the weight of its mistakes and the Seminoles’ sudden excellence, and the teams basically traded seven points: FSU moved up 3.3 and, as you’ll see below, Wake moved down 3.7.

Meanwhile, this is the faintest of praise, but since bottoming out at 103rd in SP+ three weeks ago, North Carolina has rallied to 89th, suffering a pair of gut-wrenching losses and finally getting off the schneid with a thumping of quarterback-less Syracuse. The Tar Heels will have to pull at least a pair of upsets to have any hope of bowling, but improvement can be encouraging in and of itself.

Moving down

Here are the 10 teams whose ratings fell the most:

Wake Forest: down 3.7 adjusted points per game (ranking fell from 56th to 68th)

Cincinnati: down 3.5 points (from 23rd to 32nd)

Maryland: down 3.3 points (from 37th to 51st)

Georgia Tech: down 3.2 points (from 25th to 34th)

Boise State: down 3.0 points (from 47th to 55th)

Colorado: down 3.0 points (from 68th to 82nd)

UCF: down 2.9 points (from 51st to 56th)

Rutgers: down 2.5 points (from 63rd to 69th)

Sam Houston: down 2.4 points (no change from 135th)

South Carolina: down 2.4 points (from 54th to 61st)

Georgia Tech entered Week 10 as the lowest-ranked unbeaten power-conference team by a comfortable margin. After getting pushed around by NC State, the Yellow Jackets are lodged between 4-5 Auburn and James Madison in SP+.

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Who won the Heisman this week?

I am once again awarding the Heisman every week of the season and doling out weekly points, F1-style (in this case, 10 points for first place, 9 for second and so on). How will this Heisman race play out, and how different will the result be from the actual Heisman voting?

Here is this week’s Heisman top 10:

1. Jeff Sims, Arizona State (13-for-24 passing for 177 yards, 1 TD and 1 INT, plus 228 non-sack rushing yards and 2 TDs against Iowa State).

2. Julian Sayin, Ohio State (20-for-23 passing for 316 yards and 4 touchdowns against Penn State).

3. CJ Bailey, NC State (24-for-32 passing for 340 yards and 2 touchdowns, plus 41 non-sack rushing yards and a TD against Georgia Tech).

4. Jordan Marshall, Michigan (25 carries for 185 yards and 3 touchdowns, plus 25 receiving yards against Purdue).

5. Owen McCown, UTSA (31-for-33 passing for 370 yards and 4 touchdowns against Tulane).

6. Jeremiyah Love, Notre Dame (17 carries for 136 yards and 2 touchdowns, plus 30 receiving yards against Boston College).

7. Arch Manning, Texas (25-for-33 passing for 328 yards and 3 touchdowns against Vanderbilt).

8. Haynes King, Georgia Tech (25-for-35 passing for 408 yards, 2 TDs and 1 INT, plus 113 non-sack rushing yards and 2 TDs against NC State).

9. Darian Mensah, Duke (27-for-41 passing for 361 yards and 4 touchdowns against Clemson).

10. Melkart Abou Jaoude, North Carolina (6 tackles, 2.5 TFLs, 2 sacks and 1 forced fumble against Syracuse).

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Jeff Sims is the journeyman prototype for the transfer portal era. He has started 28 career games at three schools (Georgia Tech, Nebraska and Arizona State), and in those, he has produced some duds — 10 games with a QBR under 30.0, three under 10.0. But he has also thrown for more than 250 yards five times and rushed for 100 or more yards (not including sacks) seven times. And on Saturday in Ames, Iowa, he painted a Sims-ian masterpiece, throwing the ball reasonably well but ripping off an 88-yard touchdown run in the third quarter and nearly doubling his previous career high in rushing.

Sims is quite obviously not a Heisman contender, but one of the reasons I love this Heisman of the Week approach is that we can celebrate when guys like Sims do something beautiful. He even topped nearly perfect performances from Julian Sayin and Owen McCown and a gutsy, hobbled game from CJ Bailey.

Honorable mention:

• Luke Altmyer, Illinois (19-for-31 passing for 235 yards, 4 TDs and 1 INT, plus 95 non-sack rushing yards and a TD against Rutgers).

• Alonza Barnett III, James Madison (12-for-18 passing for 264 yards, 4 TDs and 1 INT, plus 102 non-sack rushing yards and a TD against Texas State).

• Tommy Castellanos, Florida State (12-for-16 passing for 271 yards and a touchdown, plus 18 non-sack rushing yards and a TD against Wake Forest).

• Evan Dickens, Liberty (22 carries for 217 yards and 4 touchdowns against Delaware).

• Caleb Hawkins, North Texas (33 carries for 197 yards and 4 touchdowns, plus 9 receiving yards against Navy).

• Kevin Jennings, SMU (29-for-44 passing for 365 yards and a touchdown, plus a rushing touchdown against Miami).

• Jayden Scott, NC State (24 carries for 196 yards and a touchdown, plus 11 receiving yards against Georgia Tech).

• Danny Scudero, San Jose State (7 catches for 215 yards and 2 touchdowns against Hawai’i).

Through 10 weeks, here are your points leaders. I’ve bolded the guys who are also in the top 12 in the current Heisman betting odds.

1. Ty Simpson, Alabama (29 points)
2. Taylen Green, Arkansas (27)
3T. Trinidad Chambliss, Ole Miss (25)
3T. Julian Sayin, Ohio State (25)
5. Demond Williams Jr., Washington (21)
6T. Fernando Mendoza, Indiana (19)
6T. Gunner Stockton, Georgia (19)
8. Luke Altmyer, Illinois (16)
9. Diego Pavia, Vanderbilt (14)
10T. Haynes King, Georgia Tech (13)
10T. Jeremiyah Love, Notre Dame (13)

We might be approaching a «Winner takes the No. 1 seed, winning QB takes the Heisman» game between Sayin’s Ohio State — the current Heisman betting favorite, per ESPN BET — and Mendoza’s Indiana in the Big Ten championship game in four weeks. Simpson, Chambliss and Stockton still have clear paths to impress, however, and with Love shifting into fifth gear over the past two games (a combined 41 carries for 364 yards) he might catch voters’ eyes if he keeps ripping off 94-yard touchdown runs.

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My 10 favorite games of the weekend

1 and 2. SMU 26, No. 10 Miami 20 (OT) and Duke 46, Clemson 45. Obviously, Miami was the main character in Saturday’s loss, but what a performance by SMU. Kevin Jennings nearly landed on the Heisman of the Week list with 365 yards, a TD pass and a TD run, and the Mustangs’ defense, much improved of late, allowed just one gain of more than 25 yards, forced Miami to go the length of the field and pounced on mistakes. A great performance in a frustrating season.

Meanwhile, because Manny Diaz is a soccer fan, I can confidently say he’ll know what I mean when I say Duke pulled an absolute smash-and-grab in Death Valley, overcoming a massive efficiency disadvantage with a kick return score and not only a 5-for-5 performance on fourth down but 29 points scored after a fourth-down conversion. The Blue Devils remain in the ACC title race, and Clemson has only about a 39% chance of bowling, per SP+.

3. Division II: No. 7 CSU-Pueblo 24, No. 6 Western Colorado 21. I love it when one of the Smaller-School Showcase games in my Friday preview lives up to its billing. Unbeaten WCU bolted to a 21-0 lead in the second quarter, but CSU-Pueblo had tied it by the end of the third quarter, with help from an 88-yard Roman Fuller-to-Marcellus Honeycutt Jr. touchdown pass. In the end, the Thunderwolves won with special teams: First, Jusiah Sampleton blocked a 47-yard field goal attempt with 4:01 left; then, after a 20-yard pass on third-and-16, Jackson Smith knocked in a 32-yarder as time expired.

4. FCS: No. 25 Abilene Christian 31, No. 2 Tarleton State 28. Tarleton State was the best FCS team not named North Dakota State heading into the weekend, and after entering the fourth quarter down 28-10, the Texans rallied to tie it with 56 seconds left. But a 38-yard pass from Stone Earle to Bryan Henry set up Brandon Perez’s 47-yard buzzer-beater. TSU is unbeaten no more.

5. No. 5 Georgia 24, Florida 20. This game would rank higher if Georgia hadn’t been involved, but the Bulldogs have pulled the football version of the «Call the ambulance … but not for me» meme too many times, falling behind and then winning with perfect late execution. Regardless, it was a fun, tense way to spend an afternoon even if I didn’t doubt the outcome.

6 and 7. FCS: Idaho 35, Northern Arizona 32 (OT) (Friday) and Idaho State 38, No. 6 UC Davis 36. Drama in the Big Sky! On Friday night in Flagstaff, Arizona, Idaho watched a 26-7 lead turn into a 29-26 fourth-quarter deficit, but Owen Adams nailed a 42-yard field goal at the buzzer, and after forcing an overtime field goal, the Vandals walked it off with a short ​​Hayden Kincheloe touchdown.

On Saturday in Davis, California, Idaho State, which has felt pretty close to an upset win all season, got one thanks to a 219-yard rushing performance from Dason Brooks and a 50-yard, final-minute field goal from Trajan Sinatra, the best-named kicker this side of Florida’s Trey Smack.

8. Mississippi State 38, Arkansas 35. After heartbreaking losses to Texas and Florida extended MSU’s SEC losing streak to 16 games (and more than two calendar years), it would take something special to end the streak. Like a game-ending 17-0 run, 193 penalty yards from Arkansas and a monstrous 18-yard catch and touchdown run from Anthony Evans III.

9. New Mexico 40, UNLV 35. If you watched this one as I advised, you were rewarded. New Mexico played catch-and-release, losing leads of 21-0 and 34-21, but with the game on the line, the Lobos executed a perfect, eight-play, 75-yard touchdown drive, taking the lead on a 13-yard D.J. McKinney run, then making two late stops to move to 6-2 and secure bowl eligibility. It’s hard to say enough about the job Jason Eck has done there in Year 1.

10. Division II: West Texas A&M 53, Texas A&M-Kingsville 48. There should always be room for a nutty track meet on this list, and if you missed the first eight minutes of this one, you missed (1) a 74-yard return on the opening kickoff, (2) a 26-yard touchdown on the first offensive play, (3) a sack-and-strip fumble, (4) a 99-yard kick return, (5) two turnovers on downs and (6) a 43-yard touchdown pass. West Texas A&M took a 22-6 lead from all of that, Kingsville responded with a 22-3 run to charge ahead, and we got six more lead changes from there. Goodness.

11. NAIA: No. 14 Indiana Wesleyan 56, Taylor 48.

12. No. 20 Texas 34, No. 9 Vanderbilt 31.

13. No. 18 Oklahoma 33, No. 14 Tennessee 27.

14. Oregon State 10, Washington State 7.

15. FCS: Central Connecticut 10, Long Island 7.

16. NAIA: Cumberland 40, Cumberlands 37.

17. Minnesota 23, Michigan State 20 (OT).

18. Army 20, Air Force 17.

19. Division II: Chowan 34, Erskine 30.

20. Division III: Wesleyan 34, Williams 28 (OT).

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The midweek playlist

Here’s your quick reminder that the CFP rankings are only the second-biggest landmark of the coming week. That’s right: IT’S MIDWEEK MACTION TIME. And we start with a doozy.

Miami (Ohio) at Ohio (Tuesday, 7 p.m., ESPN2). Miami has won five straight since an 0-3 start, and Ohio, the defending champ, has won four of five. The winner of this one will be your odds-on MAC favorite.

UTSA at USF (Thursday, 7:30 p.m., ESPN). USF needs to win out to keep AAC title (and playoff) hopes alive, and UTSA is coming off by far its best performance of the season.