The more things change, the more … Ohio State remains the same.
There were some Week 10 surprises, but not at the top, where defending national champion Ohio State should start the first College Football Playoff rankings on Tuesday right where it left off last season — at No. 1. Although there could be some debate over the top spot when the 12 members of this year’s group vote on teams for their first official top 25 ranking of the season, the bigger discussion will likely revolve around one-loss Alabama and undefeated Texas A&M for the No. 3 and No. 4 spots.
How far do the two-loss Canes fall after their loss at SMU, and how high can two-loss Notre Dame rise? Can Texas Tech make its debut in the CFP top 25? Was Vandy’s moment in the field fleeting after its loss to Texas?
Here’s a prediction of what the selection committee will do on Tuesday night when it reveals its first of six rankings (8 p.m. ET/ESPN) — the season’s first true baseline of the playoff pecking order.
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Projecting the top 12
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Why they could be lower: Some committee members could continue to penalize Alabama for its season-opening loss to Florida State, which looks worse each week. Plus, the Aggies haven’t lost and are No. 1 in ESPN’s strength of record metric.
Need to know: So what’s the difference between earning the No. 3 or the No. 4 seed? The No. 3 seed faces the winner of the No. 11 vs. No. 6 first-round game. The No. 4 seed plays the winner of the No. 5 vs. No. 12 matchup.
Toughest remaining game: Nov. 15 vs. Oklahoma. The Sooners will likely be the last CFP top 25 team Alabama faces during the regular season.
Why they could be here: The undefeated Aggies have one of the best nonconference wins in the country, a 41-40 win at Notre Dame on Sept. 13. The win against LSU is now … interesting? The Aggies earned a resounding 49-25 win in Baton Rouge, but LSU is a three-loss team that fired its head coach and athletic director. How the committee views LSU will be a factor in how it regards A&M’s résumé. In addition to Notre Dame, Texas A&M’s wins against teams above .500 came versus LSU and Mississippi State. Both Texas A&M and Alabama have three road wins each, but two of Bama’s (Georgia and Missouri) came against ranked teams.
Why they could be higher: The Aggies are undefeated and No. 1 in ESPN’s strength of record metric, and Alabama lost to a struggling Florida State team.
Need to know: The Aggies and Tide don’t play each other during the regular season but are the most likely matchup in the SEC championship game, according to ESPN Analytics. Texas A&M also doesn’t play Georgia during the regular season.
Toughest remaining game: Nov. 28 at Texas.
LaNorris Sellers and South Carolina early, but the defense swarmed Sellers in the fourth quarter and Ole Miss pulled away to likely remain one of the committee’s top one-loss teams. Ole Miss will still be ranked behind Georgia because of the head-to-head road loss to the Bulldogs on Oct. 18. The Rebels entered Saturday ranked No. 7 in ESPN’s strength of record metric. Their best win was Oct. 25 at Oklahoma, and the lopsided win against two-loss Tulane is still respectable. Part of the committee’s evaluation of Ole Miss will depend on how much it values a win against three-loss LSU, which has since fired its coach and athletic director.
Why they could be lower: BYU is undefeated and entered Week 10 ranked No. 9 in total efficiency; Ole Miss was No. 21. BYU was also No. 5 in strength of record, a slight edge over No. 7 Ole Miss.
Need to know: Ole Miss entered November with a three-game stretch at home against unranked opponents, including The Citadel in its next game. The Rebels’ best opportunities to impress the selection committee are behind them, but as long as they don’t stumble, it shouldn’t impact their playoff standing. A bad loss, though, could call the Rebels’ résumé into question.
Toughest remaining game: Nov. 28 at Mississippi State. The Egg Bowl isn’t a gimme, especially as the Bulldogs have crept above .500. A loss could mean a first-round road trip instead of a home game for Ole Miss — or getting bumped out of the bracket entirely.
Why they could be here: The Cougars had a bye week but will be the committee’s lone undefeated Big 12 team to consider. BYU’s back-to-back wins against Utah and Iowa State are collectively better than anything undefeated Georgia Tech has on its résumé. Heading into Saturday, BYU was ranked No. 5 in ESPN’s strength of record metric, ahead of No. 8 Georgia Tech. The more glaring discrepancy is in strength of schedule, where BYU was No. 49 and Georgia Tech was No. 83. Statistically, BYU and Georgia Tech have been extremely even in most major categories, but the Cougars have done it against better competition.
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Why they could be lower: The committee will discuss an FCS win against Portland State, and three wins against teams with losing records — Stanford, Colorado and West Virginia.
Need to know: BYU and Texas Tech are the most likely matchup in the Big 12 title game, according to ESPN Analytics, but they will first play each other in Lubbock, Texas, next week. If BYU reaches the Big 12 title game undefeated, it will almost certainly earn an at-large bid as a one-loss runner-up if it doesn’t win the title. If BYU loses to Texas Tech during the regular season but beats it in the Big 12 title game, it’s also still possible they both get in if it’s a close game. Even with a second loss, the Red Raiders could claim a regular-season win against the Big 12 champs, which would be a huge boost to their résumé in the committee meeting room.
Toughest remaining game: Nov. 8 at Texas Tech. BYU has a week to prepare, but the Red Raiders are coming off a road win at Kansas State.
Why they could be here: The Ducks will be one of the committee’s most interesting teams to debate because they have played well, but their best win is … Sept. 13 at Northwestern — the only team they’ve beaten with a winning record. Entering Saturday, Oregon’s opponents had a winning percentage of 47.9%, ranked No. 101 in the country. The Ducks also have an FCS win against Montana State. The committee will likely still respect the Sept. 27 win at Penn State because the Nittany Lions had head coach James Franklin, it was a hostile crowd environment, and the team had yet to unravel. It still wasn’t a win against a playoff contender, though. Oregon lost to Indiana, the best team it has played, by double digits at home.
Why they could be higher: With the exception of the double-overtime win at Penn State, Oregon has won in convincing fashion all season. The Ducks entered Saturday ranked No. 7 in scoring defense (13.5 points per game) and No. 6 in points per game (41.25). The Ducks also have one of the best losses in the country, as it could be to the committee’s No. 2 team, Indiana.
Need to know: Oregon has more chances to impress the selection committee in November, with games against Iowa, USC and at Washington looming — all teams with winning records and potentially ranked in the CFP top 25. The committee doesn’t project ahead, though, and Oregon had a Week 10 bye, so this is the résumé it will be judged by on Tuesday.
Toughest remaining game: Nov. 29 at Washington. The 6-2 Huskies have lost only to Ohio State and on the road against Michigan.
John Mateer in the Texas game, as he made his return 17 days after having hand surgery and threw three interceptions. The question is if it would be enough of a factor along with the Sooners’ résumé to look past the head-to-head result.
Need to know: If the playoff were today, Oklahoma would be bumped out to make room for the fifth-highest-ranked conference champion, which is guaranteed a spot in the 12-team field. Right now that team — Memphis as the projected American champion — would be ranked outside the top 12.
Toughest remaining game: Nov. 15 at Alabama. The Sooners have a bye week to prepare for it but will be in a must-win situation in Tuscaloosa.
Bracket
Based on the rankings above, the seeding would be:
First-round byes
No. 1 Ohio State (Big Ten champ)
No. 2 Indiana
No. 3 Alabama (SEC champ)
No. 4 Texas A&M
First-round games
On campus, Dec. 19 and 20
No. 12 Memphis (American champ) at No. 5 Georgia
No. 11 Virginia (ACC champ) at No. 6 Ole Miss
No. 10 Notre Dame at No. 7 BYU (Big 12 champ)
No. 9 Texas Tech at No. 8 Oregon
Quarterfinal games
At the Goodyear Cotton Bowl, Capital One Orange Bowl, Rose Bowl Presented by Prudential and Allstate Sugar Bowl on Dec. 31 and Jan. 1.
No. 12 Memphis/No. 5 Georgia winner vs. No. 4 Texas A&M
No. 11 Virginia/No. 6 Ole Miss winner vs. No. 3 Alabama
No. 10 Notre Dame/No. 7 BYU winner vs. No. 2 Indiana
No. 9 Texas Tech/No. 8 Oregon winner vs. No. 1 Ohio State
