The SportsLine Model was developed and powered by the Inside the Lines team. You can find all of our team’s picks and content at our blog, which has all our personal best bets for free. Last year when college football expanded to a 12-team playoff, the Inside the Lines Team led the industry in forecasting what teams would be selected by reverse engineering the oddsmakers’ model to determine the scenario and then using our model numbers to quantify that scenario.
Our power ranking system is based on the percentage of simulations each team wins against every other FBS team in the country on a neutral field in a simulated championship game setting. What you might see is two teams are neck-and-neck in the power rankings, but one team has a higher playoff berth percentage based on their schedule and conference strength. Here are some observations from the model’s latest projections ahead of Week 1 of the college football season.
Bet college football at DraftKings, where new users get $300 in bonus bets instantly plus over $200 off NFL Sunday Ticket:
Notre Dame and Texas Still Elite Ranking… Playoff Chances Plummet
Arch Manning had enough good moments late and the defense played well enough vs Ohio State to keep Texas in our Top 5. Because this was a non-conference game the Longhorns’ chances of winning the SEC did not drop significantly. But their playoff chances did drop considerably. There is a world where Texas and Ohio State are competing for an at large bid and this tie-breaker will cost Texas.
Texas’ playoff chances didn’t get killed nearly as much as Notre Dame’s..
| CURRENT POWER RANKING | LAST WEEK | |||||||
| PWR RANK | PWR RANK | SIM WIN% | PLAYOFF | WIN CONF | SIM WIN% | PLAYOFF | WIN CONF | |
| 1 | Penn State Nittany Lions | 89.0% | 83.4% | 28.7% | 87.7% | 81.0% | 24.7% | |
| 2 | Georgia Bulldogs | 88.3% | 67.9% | 17.3% | 87.2% | 57.6% | 12.6% | |
| 3 | Ohio State Buckeyes | 87.9% | 83.4% | 23.9% | 88.2% | 83.3% | 28.6% | |
| 4 | Oregon Ducks | 87.8% | 71.6% | 18.8% | 88.0% | 71.8% | 19.1% | |
| 5 | Texas Longhorns | 86.5% | 52.5% | 16.0% | 88.4% | 70.4% | 19.0% | |
| 6 | Notre Dame Fighting Irish | 85.5% | 44.5% | — | 87.2% | 68.2% | — | |
Notre Dame to Miss the Playoffs (-110, FanDuel)
Notre Dame is in a tricky spot since they don’t belong to a conference. Unlike last season when they lost to Northern Illinois which put pressure on them to win out, their loss to Miami doesn’t put as much pressure as it maybe should on them. Notre Dame is going to have to go 10-1 or 11-0 the rest of the way to make the playoffs (still not guaranteed at 10-2), and while the oddsmakers have that as 50-50 to make the playoffs, we have them well under 50%.
Bet college football at FanDuel and get $300 in bonus bets with a winning $5 wager:
Penn State to win National Championship (+600, FanDuel)
Penn State is winning the championship in 19% of our bracket simulations (+425 implied). While the Nittany Lions obviously have to make the playoffs first, but we think there is a strong chance of that happening. Experienced QBs have won the CFP, and we like Allar’s three years of starting experience
SEC Trio of LSU, Alabama and Ole Miss Flip Spots
Last week our power ranking had Alabama 7, LSU 8 and Ole Miss 9. Now Alabama and Ole Miss flipped. While Alabama didn’t stink enough to fall behind Missouri, their 2.2 percentage point drop in SIM WIN% combined with a head-to-head loss to possible at large competitor, FSU, crushed their playoff chances. They dropped from 58% to 21%.
| CURRENT POWER RANKING | LAST WEEK | |||||||
| PWR RANK | PWR RANK | SIM WIN% | PLAYOFF | WIN CONF | SIM WIN% | PLAYOFF | WIN CONF | |
| 7 | Ole Miss Rebels | 84.7% | 61.7% | 21.8% | 82.7% | 57.4% | 15.7% | |
| 8 | LSU Tigers | 84.5% | 45.3% | 7.5% | 85.4% | 38.9% | 8.6% | |
| 9 | Alabama Crimson Tide | 83.4% | 22.8% | 6.5% | 85.6% | 58.4% | 14.7% | |
| 10 | Missouri Tigers | 81.6% | 38.9% | 9.9% | 81.7% | 29.4% | 9.1% | |
| 11 | Michigan Wolverines | 81.3% | 38.2% | 11.4% | 80.4% | 34.9% | 10.2% | |
| 12 | Texas A&M Aggies | 81.2% | 31.0% | 8.0% | 80.6% | 32.4% | 9.6% | |
| 13 | Southern California Trojans | 79.8% | 25.5% | 7.5% | 77.2% | 20.8% | 7.4% | |
| 14 | Tennessee Volunteers | 79.1% | 32.4% | 4.5% | 76.5% | 23.9% | 3.2% | |
Ole Miss O 8.5 Wins (-125, FanDuel)
Ole Miss has hit this win mark in 3 of their last 4 seasons. Ole Miss has four ranked teams left on their schedule, and 3 of those 4 games are at home. We project them to have 9.3 wins.
Missouri O 7.5 Wins (+102, FanDuel)
While it was against Central Arkansas, Beau Pribula looked great. Like Ole Miss, Missouri plays 3 of their 4 ranked opponents at home this season. They also have a top-3 easiest schedule in the SEC this season and are coming off back-to-back 10-win seasons.
Clemson Still OK in ACC Conf Win%… but Not Playoff%
Clemson lost to LSU (as we predicted) but since this was a non-conference loss their ACC chances still are above 20%. But the combination of subpar play from Cade Klubnik and the loss to at large competitor, LSU, did significantly hurt Clemson’s playoff chances. Our model still sees SMU as the most underrated team in the ACC.
Miami’s playoff chances skyrocketed from 14.4% to nearly 38%. Louisville improved more from other ACC teams struggling than their own performance.
| CURRENT POWER RANKING | LAST WEEK | |||||||
| PWR RANK | PWR RANK | SIM WIN% | PLAYOFF | WIN CONF | SIM WIN% | PLAYOFF | WIN CONF | |
| 15 | Clemson Tigers | 77.5% | 32.4% | 22.0% | 81.2% | 49.0% | 29.1% | |
| 16 | Oklahoma Sooners | 77.4% | 10.8% | 2.0% | 77.9% | 14.4% | 3.3% | |
| 17 | Indiana Hoosiers | 77.3% | 19.0% | 4.5% | 76.0% | 16.3% | 5.4% | |
| 18 | Florida Gators | 76.1% | 6.5% | 1.4% | 74.1% | 9.6% | 1.2% | |
| 19 | Miami (Fla.) Hurricanes | 75.2% | 34.1% | 14.0% | 73.5% | 14.4% | 12.9% | |
| 20 | Southern Methodist Mustangs | 74.9% | 38.5% | 21.2% | 74.1% | 37.4% | 20.4% | |
| 21 | South Carolina Gamecocks | 73.4% | 13.4% | 2.3% | 72.6% | 9.0% | 1.9% | |
| 22 | Auburn Tigers | 72.9% | 10.0% | 2.2% | 69.0% | 5.4% | 1.1% | |
| 23 | Louisville Cardinals | 71.1% | 24.8% | 15.1% | 71.2% | 18.3% | 9.8% | |
Iowa State Up, Kansas State Worse than They Appear
Kansas State needed a minor miracle to win at home vs an FCS school. They are only at 65.8% in sim win% because our model doesn’t include games vs FCS schools. Their conference and playoff chances plummeted after their Week 0 loss to Iowa St. You will also see most Big 12 schools have a playoff% not that much larger than their Big 12 chances because they are looking like a one bid conference.
| CURRENT POWER RANKING | LAST WEEK | |||||||
| PWR RANK | PWR RANK | SIM WIN% | PLAYOFF | WIN CONF | SIM WIN% | PLAYOFF | WIN CONF | |
| 24 | Washington Huskies | 70.9% | 12.3% | 1.9% | 70.8% | 16.4% | 2.1% | |
| 25 | Iowa Hawkeyes | 69.1% | 6.2% | 1.2% | 69.2% | 4.9% | 0.9% | |
| 26 | Iowa State Cyclones | 68.1% | 30.3% | 24.8% | 69.8% | 20.4% | 14.0% | |
| 27 | Illinois Fighting Illini | 66.4% | 4.8% | 0.6% | 65.6% | 4.4% | 1.2% | |
| 28 | Kansas State Wildcats | 65.9% | 11.9% | 9.7% | 68.8% | 32.7% | 22.1% | |
| 29 | TCU Horned Frogs | 64.7% | 13.6% | 9.7% | 61.1% | 5.8% | 5.6% | |
| 30 | Wisconsin Badgers | 64.6% | 1.2% | 0.4% | 61.6% | 1.0% | 0.1% | |
| 31 | Kentucky Wildcats | 63.6% | 1.1% | 0.3% | 60.5% | 0.7% | 0.0% | |
| 32 | James Madison Dukes | 63.6% | 10.0% | 37.0% | 62.8% | 4.8% | 31.8% | |
| 33 | Arkansas Razorbacks | 63.0% | 0.6% | 0.3% | 60.2% | 0.5% | 0.0% | |
| 34 | Georgia Tech Yellow Jackets | 63.0% | 9.8% | 6.1% | 62.9% | 9.4% | 8.0% | |
| 35 | Kansas Jayhawks | 62.4% | 9.7% | 7.8% | 59.4% | 3.7% | 6.3% | |
Iowa State to win BIG12 (+750, FanDuel)
Iowa State has a big advantage already starting at 1-0 in the conference, while no other BIG12 team has a conference win. Iowa State has a very favorable schedule with their biggest game, Arizona State, being at home. We have them making the conference championship in around 40% of simulations, so this +750 price could be a good number to get now and hedge later.
Memphis Takes Over Boise’s Spot in the Playoff
We had Boise State lightly penciled in our 12 team playoff bracket as the group of 5 representative. But with their horrible game vs South Florida combined with UNLV not looking good early we now look at the AAC favorite, Memphis as the most likely team to get the 12 seed.
| CURRENT POWER RANKING | LAST WEEK | |||||||
| PWR RANK | PWR RANK | SIM WIN% | PLAYOFF | WIN CONF | SIM WIN% | PLAYOFF | WIN CONF | |
| 36 | Nebraska Cornhuskers | 62.1% | 3.4% | 0.8% | 60.8% | 4.7% | 0.3% | |
| 37 | Arizona State Sun Devils | 62.1% | 13.6% | 9.9% | 63.1% | 11.8% | 9.4% | |
| 38 | California Golden Bears | 61.3% | 4.9% | 2.7% | 57.3% | 2.6% | 2.0% | |
| 39 | Minnesota Golden Gophers | 60.9% | 1.9% | 0.2% | 58.2% | 0.8% | 0.0% | |
| 40 | Texas Tech Red Raiders | 60.8% | 10.1% | 5.7% | 61.1% | 9.4% | 3.8% | |
| 41 | Memphis Tigers | 60.5% | 15.8% | 29.7% | 58.8% | 12.8% | 28.7% | |
| 42 | Boise State Broncos | 60.5% | 9.6% | 33.6% | 66.2% | 28.7% | 48.4% | |
| 43 | Duke Blue Devils | 60.4% | 5.1% | 3.3% | 59.8% | 5.1% | 4.2% | |
| 44 | Virginia Tech Hokies | 60.2% | 3.0% | 2.9% | 63.0% | 8.4% | 5.2% | |
| 45 | Rutgers Scarlet Knights | 59.6% | 0.1% | 0.1% | 57.6% | 0.1% | 0.0% | |
| 46 | Tulane Green Wave | 58.9% | 6.7% | 21.5% | 57.4% | 7.5% | 27.8% | |
| 47 | Baylor Bears | 58.2% | 4.2% | 3.7% | 59.6% | 6.3% | 6.0% | |
| 48 | Vanderbilt Commodores | 58.1% | 0.6% | 0.0% | 56.4% | 0.9% | 0.0% | |
| 49 | UNLV Rebels | 57.9% | 12.2% | 31.5% | 58.5% | 12.9% | 26.9% | |
Florida State and Utah Making Up for 2024 Failures
Last season Florida State’s win total was 9.5 and Utah was 8.5ish. Massively disappointing QB play and many other factors resulted in lost seasons for both teams. But both teams have licked their wounds and it would not be surprising to see them in the table above this one next week and two tables above them in a few more weeks.
| CURRENT POWER RANKING | LAST WEEK | |||||||
| PWR RANK | PWR RANK | SIM WIN% | PLAYOFF | WIN CONF | SIM WIN% | PLAYOFF | WIN CONF | |
| 50 | Utah Utes | 57.8% | 16.5% | 10.2% | 55.9% | 9.3% | 7.3% | |
| 51 | Brigham Young Cougars | 57.5% | 6.7% | 4.3% | 55.6% | 3.5% | 1.8% | |
| 52 | South Alabama Jaguars | 56.4% | 2.4% | 19.7% | 55.9% | 0.7% | 19.0% | |
| 53 | Florida State Seminoles | 55.7% | 11.6% | 4.4% | 50.3% | 5.7% | 3.4% | |
| 54 | Arizona Wildcats | 55.6% | 5.7% | 5.4% | 51.8% | 3.2% | 2.5% | |
| 55 | Colorado Buffaloes | 55.0% | 2.0% | 1.9% | 59.9% | 4.7% | 7.3% | |
| 56 | Texas-San Antonio Roadrunners | 54.0% | 2.1% | 10.1% | 50.9% | 2.4% | 10.8% | |
| 57 | North Carolina Tar Heels | 53.8% | 2.2% | 1.7% | 57.1% | 5.1% | 2.1% | |
| 58 | Texas State Bobcats | 53.4% | 2.4% | 15.0% | 51.4% | 1.0% | 9.9% | |
| 59 | Maryland Terrapins | 52.2% | 0.3% | 0.0% | 47.9% | 0.4% | 0.0% | |
| 60 | Virginia Cavaliers | 52.0% | 4.8% | 2.9% | 42.2% | 1.3% | 1.0% | |
The Rest of the Field
| CURRENT POWER RANKING | LAST WEEK | |||||||
| PWR RANK | PWR RANK | SIM WIN% | PLAYOFF | WIN CONF | SIM WIN% | PLAYOFF | WIN CONF | |
| 61 | North Carolina State Wolfpack | 52.0% | 3.1% | 2.4% | 50.0% | 2.0% | 0.7% | |
| 62 | West Virginia Mountaineers | 51.8% | 3.0% | 2.9% | 60.3% | 7.0% | 10.4% | |
| 63 | Ohio Bobcats | 51.5% | 1.4% | 29.9% | 55.6% | 5.0% | 32.1% | |
| 64 | Syracuse Orange | 51.2% | 0.5% | 0.5% | 47.0% | 0.2% | 0.2% | |
| 65 | South Florida Bulls | 51.0% | 1.6% | 7.6% | 42.0% | 0.1% | 2.2% | |
| 66 | Liberty Flames | 50.7% | 16.9% | 44.0% | 53.6% | 0.0% | 44.3% | |
| 67 | Cincinnati Bearcats | 50.7% | 0.9% | 0.7% | 53.2% | 1.6% | 1.3% | |
| 68 | Oklahoma State Cowboys | 50.7% | 2.5% | 1.9% | 52.2% | 1.3% | 1.3% | |
| 69 | Army Black Knights | 50.1% | 0.3% | 11.4% | 47.1% | 0.9% | 11.8% | |
| 70 | Boston College Eagles | 50.0% | 0.3% | 0.2% | 49.1% | 0.1% | 0.3% | |
| 71 | UL Lafayette Ragin Cajuns | 49.8% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 54.2% | 0.0% | 0.0% | |
| 72 | Navy Midshipmen | 48.7% | 2.7% | 11.9% | 46.2% | 2.0% | 10.6% | |
| 73 | UCLA Bruins | 48.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 52.7% | 0.2% | 0.0% | |
| 74 | Mississippi State Bulldogs | 48.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 44.4% | 0.0% | 0.0% | |
| 75 | Oregon State Beavers | 46.9% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 49.6% | 0.0% | 0.0% | |
| 76 | Michigan State Spartans | 46.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 39.2% | 0.2% | 0.0% | |
| 77 | Pittsburgh Panthers | 46.0% | 1.1% | 0.6% | 43.8% | 0.8% | 0.7% | |
| 78 | UCF Knights | 45.9% | 1.0% | 0.9% | 45.6% | 0.9% | 0.4% | |
| 79 | Fresno State Bulldogs | 45.9% | 0.7% | 5.9% | 48.0% | 0.9% | 5.4% | |
| 80 | Jacksonville St Gamecocks | 45.7% | 1.0% | 18.0% | 47.6% | 0.0% | 19.9% | |
| 81 | Washington State Cougars | 44.2% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 45.6% | 0.0% | 0.0% | |
| 82 | North Texas Mean Green | 44.1% | 2.0% | 4.8% | 42.4% | 0.9% | 4.6% | |
| 83 | Northwestern Wildcats | 43.6% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 47.1% | 0.1% | 0.0% | |
| 84 | San Jose State Spartans | 43.4% | 0.7% | 15.4% | 46.8% | 3.8% | 11.5% | |
| 85 | Toledo Rockets | 43.2% | 3.1% | 26.1% | 49.2% | 8.8% | 28.1% | |
| 86 | Western Kentucky Hilltoppers | 43.1% | 3.3% | 19.1% | 41.8% | 0.0% | 9.4% | |
| 87 | Old Dominion Monarchs | 42.9% | 0.2% | 8.1% | 43.6% | 0.3% | 9.0% | |
| 88 | Connecticut Huskies | 42.7% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 40.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | |
| 89 | Houston Cougars | 41.8% | 0.6% | 0.5% | 42.9% | 0.1% | 0.5% | |
| 90 | East Carolina Pirates | 40.8% | 0.4% | 2.3% | 37.7% | 0.1% | 2.3% | |
| 91 | Marshall Thundering Herd | 40.3% | 0.1% | 2.3% | 43.3% | 0.1% | 3.9% | |
| 92 | Colorado State Rams | 40.2% | 0.1% | 3.8% | 42.3% | 0.4% | 2.8% | |
| 93 | Troy Trojans | 39.7% | 0.1% | 2.8% | 39.4% | 0.0% | 4.0% | |
| 94 | Appalachian State Mountaineers | 39.7% | 0.5% | 4.7% | 37.5% | 0.2% | 3.2% | |
| 95 | Georgia Southern Eagles | 39.3% | 0.1% | 6.4% | 42.1% | 0.4% | 6.9% | |
| 96 | Miami (Ohio) RedHawks | 39.2% | 0.2% | 12.1% | 54.9% | 3.1% | 22.0% | |
| 97 | Wyoming Cowboys | 37.8% | 0.2% | 4.0% | 35.5% | 0.0% | 2.2% | |
| 98 | Air Force Falcons | 37.6% | 0.0% | 3.4% | 37.8% | 0.2% | 1.9% | |
| 99 | Wake Forest Demon Deacons | 36.8% | 0.2% | 0.0% | 34.9% | 0.1% | 0.0% | |
| 100 | Arkansas State Red Wolves | 36.5% | 0.1% | 1.1% | 34.5% | 0.1% | 1.7% | |
| 101 | Purdue Boilermakers | 36.3% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 29.9% | 0.0% | 0.0% | |
| 102 | Bowling Green Falcons | 35.5% | 0.5% | 9.0% | 38.5% | 0.4% | 4.9% | |
| 103 | Sam Houston State Bearcats | 35.3% | 0.0% | 2.7% | 37.8% | 0.0% | 7.6% | |
| 104 | Coastal Carolina Chanticleers | 35.0% | 0.0% | 2.3% | 43.1% | 0.2% | 7.9% | |
| 105 | Louisiana Tech Bulldogs | 33.9% | 0.4% | 3.6% | 34.2% | 0.0% | 3.7% | |
| 106 | Northern Illinois Huskies | 33.8% | 1.1% | 9.7% | 35.5% | 0.3% | 5.7% | |
| 107 | Georgia State Panthers | 32.1% | 0.0% | 0.6% | 35.4% | 0.0% | 2.6% | |
| 108 | Stanford Cardinal | 32.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 32.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% | |
| 109 | Utah State Aggies | 31.3% | 0.0% | 1.1% | 29.7% | 0.0% | 0.4% | |
| 110 | Buffalo Bulls | 31.1% | 0.2% | 5.8% | 32.1% | 0.8% | 3.5% | |
| 111 | Rice Owls | 30.5% | 0.2% | 0.3% | 29.9% | 0.1% | 0.6% | |
| 112 | Florida International Golden Panthers | 29.8% | 0.0% | 2.0% | 29.0% | 0.0% | 1.0% | |
| 113 | New Mexico State Aggies | 29.1% | 0.4% | 5.0% | 28.4% | 0.0% | 2.1% | |
| 114 | Delaware Fightin’ Blue Hens | 27.8% | 0.0% | 1.5% | 35.8% | 0.0% | 3.8% | |
| 115 | Eastern Michigan Eagles | 26.7% | 0.0% | 3.2% | 28.5% | 0.0% | 0.9% | |
| 116 | UAB Blazers | 25.7% | 0.0% | 0.2% | 23.8% | 0.0% | 0.1% | |
| 117 | Middle Tennessee Blue Raiders | 25.6% | 0.0% | 1.1% | 24.7% | 0.0% | 0.8% | |
| 118 | Central Michigan Chippewas | 25.2% | 0.3% | 2.8% | 23.7% | 0.0% | 1.5% | |
| 119 | Florida Atlantic Owls | 25.0% | 0.0% | 0.1% | 24.5% | 0.1% | 0.4% | |
| 120 | Kennesaw State Owls | 24.6% | 0.0% | 1.9% | 22.2% | 0.0% | 0.3% | |
| 121 | San Diego State Aztecs | 24.0% | 0.0% | 0.9% | 24.0% | 0.0% | 0.2% | |
| 122 | Tulsa Golden Hurricane | 23.4% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 21.8% | 0.0% | 0.0% | |
| 123 | Missouri State Bears | 23.3% | 0.0% | 0.9% | 35.2% | 0.0% | 6.6% | |
| 124 | Temple Owls | 22.5% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 16.4% | 0.0% | 0.0% | |
| 125 | Louisiana-Monroe Warhawks | 22.3% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 21.8% | 0.0% | 0.1% | |
| 126 | New Mexico Lobos | 21.7% | 0.0% | 0.3% | 20.8% | 0.0% | 0.1% | |
| 127 | Charlotte 49ers | 21.3% | 0.0% | 0.1% | 20.3% | 0.0% | 0.1% | |
| 128 | Nevada Wolf Pack | 20.7% | 0.0% | 0.1% | 23.3% | 0.0% | 0.1% | |
| 129 | Southern Mississippi Golden Eagles | 20.6% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 17.9% | 0.0% | 0.0% | |
| 130 | Western Michigan Broncos | 20.6% | 0.0% | 0.6% | 26.1% | 0.0% | 1.0% | |
| 131 | Hawaii Rainbow Warriors | 20.4% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 21.2% | 0.0% | 0.1% | |
| 132 | Texas-El Paso Miners | 19.7% | 0.0% | 0.2% | 18.3% | 0.0% | 0.5% | |
| 133 | Akron Zips | 15.9% | 0.0% | 0.4% | 17.5% | 0.0% | 0.1% | |
| 134 | Massachusetts Minutemen | 15.1% | 0.0% | 0.3% | 16.6% | 0.0% | 0.2% | |
| 135 | Ball State Cardinals | 12.4% | 0.0% | 0.1% | 17.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | |
| 136 | Kent State Golden Flashes | 5.7% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 6.5% | 0.0% | 0.0% | |
