Last year, we rolled out the independent angle of key college football situational plays and found some success with it. Our highest-rated plays recorded a 10-5 record against the spread (67%), consistently offering a winning approach for SportsLine members.
When we mention top situational plays, we mean instances where a college football team seems primed for a psychological dip after a significant victory, or one that ought to be motivated and focused due to circumstances indicating the game is crucial for them.
These situations become more identifiable as the season progresses, and we’ve pinpointed a pair of Week 2 matchups that fulfill these criteria, each representing different scenarios. Below are our prime Week 2 college football situational plays.
Virginia Tech -1 vs. Vanderbilt
The Commodores kicked off their breakout 2024 season with a 34-27 overtime win at home against Virginia Tech as two-touchdown underdogs. The Hokies rallied from a 17-point hole, but Vanderbilt, spearheaded by the efficient and resilient QB Diego Pavia, made critical plays in overtime. Vanderbilt would finish the regular season with six wins, highlighted by a home upset against then-No. 1 Alabama, and they later triumphed in the Birmingham Bowl versus Georgia Tech. On the other hand, the Hokies experienced a rocky 6-6 season, concluding with a 24-10 defeat to Minnesota in the Duke’s Mayo Bowl.
Pavia heads an experienced returning roster for Vanderbilt, while dual-threat QB Kyrone Drones injects explosive play potential into a Virginia Tech squad that should have a bolstered defense. This was clear in their 24-11 Week 1 loss to a tough South Carolina team that might be on the path to the College Football Playoff. Excluding an opening touchdown drive and a late TD pass, the Hokies managed to keep the Gamecocks at bay, limiting them to 334 total yards, enforcing five punts, and winning the possession battle by nearly ten minutes. In the end, the difference was made by losing the turnover margin 2-0 and allowing two significant fourth-quarter plays.
We noticed enough positive signs to support a Virginia Tech squad that undoubtedly needs this victory. This is a pivotal moment for both Drones and coach Brent Pry. Drones left last year’s Vanderbilt match due to exhaustion, and backup Collin Schlee was unable to lead a scoring drive in overtime. Pry has faced challenges meeting expectations with a 16-22 record to date and has never ranked higher than fourth in the ACC. Losing again on Saturday may prompt him to be among the top candidates for the first FBS coach to be dismissed. In his defense, he has triumphed in all three home openers, and this appears to be the most talented roster he has had at Virginia Tech.
While this is a critical game for Vanderbilt’s bowl eligibility, we foresee a slight regression for the Commodores this season, with a revamped offensive line considered their main vulnerability. The Hokies should have an advantage in the trenches, and although some of the intimidating atmosphere of Lane Stadium has faded due to recent program shortcomings, it still presents a tough challenge for visitors. This might be the last opportunity for Virginia Tech fans to show full support for Pry, and we anticipate a loud and daunting environment for the Commodores.
The Hokies opened as 3-point favorites, a line that rapidly shifted to -1 or -1.5 at most sportsbooks. This indicates that early bettors do not share our optimism regarding the Hokies; while we too have our long-term doubts, we believe there’s situational value available in Week 2 for Virginia Tech at a near pick’em spread.
Florida (-17) vs. USF
This matchup fits into the letdown theory. South Florida arguably secured one of the most significant program victories in Week 1 with its 34-7 upset over Boise State, setting the stage for this play-against scenario. We previously endorsed South Florida +6.5 against Boise State and placed a half-unit money bet on South Florida +210 because we viewed Boise State as the weakest contender amid a tough three-game stretch for the Bulls, who needed to secure a victory to spark some momentum heading into American Conference play. Consecutive trips to Florida and Miami could sap some of that energy.
No. 13 Florida is anticipated to be significantly better and a strong contender for the SEC championship. This game could highlight QB DJ Lagway, a Heisman hopeful who treated a 55-0 win over Rhode Island in Week 1 as a type of extended practice due to various minor injuries. Lagway completed 15 of 18 passes for 120 yards and three touchdowns in just one half. While giving up this many points to a capable and resilient USF team is considerable, we believe the Gators will wear the Bulls down in the second half, ultimately achieving a victory by over 20 points.
Josh Nagel serves as the assistant managing editor for SportsLine and is regarded as one of its leading college football analysts. We will be monitoring the performance of the 2025 top CFB situational plays in this section.
