For some teams, the make-or-break game on the schedule is pretty clear — a nonconference matchup against a big-name program or a showdown with a hated rival.
But sometimes the season-defining game sneaks up on a team. Maybe it’s an unexpected loss that sends a team into a tailspin, or a last-second win that sparks a hot streak.
Either way, there always are certain games that fans circle on the calendar with a heightened sense of anticipation. (We suspect players and coaches do too, but good luck getting them to admit it.)
With that in mind, we asked our college football reporters to predict what the season-defining game will be for all 68 power-conference teams in 2026.
Jump to a conference:
ACC | Big 12
Big Ten | Notre Dame | SEC
ACC
Sept. 26 vs. Virginia Tech. Peruse BC’s schedule given last year’s struggles, and it’s tough to find many wins. The Eagles open on the road at Cincinnati, host Rutgers, then play FCS Maine. It’s not impossible they’ll be 2-1 coming out of that stretch, which puts all the emphasis on BC’s first ACC game of the year — a home showdown with rebuilding Virginia Tech. The Hokies will likely be favored, but this is one BC — if it’s an improved team, anyway — can win. If not, the road gets grim, with trips to SMU, Georgia Tech, Duke, Notre Dame and Miami all ahead. — David Hale
Nov. 21 vs. Stanford. As the Tosh Lupoi era begins, in comes a fresh chance to change the narrative about what Cal football will be in the ACC. But with Stanford also having a first-year coach, this year could also be a race between rivals to see who can elevate their program faster. — Kyle Bonagura
Oct. 3 vs. Miami. The ACC used to run through Clemson. The Tigers won the conference eight times from 2015 to 2024. And while Miami didn’t get to claim the league title last year — that honor went to Duke — the Canes clearly are the preeminent program in the ACC after a run to the 2026 national championship game. Clemson is trying to recapture its past in 2026 though, with Dabo Swinney bringing back Chad Morris as offensive coordinator, and while an early road trip to LSU will be the first real test of Swinney’s plan, it’s the home game against Miami that figures to define the season. With Georgia Southern, UNC and Cal ahead of Miami, the Tigers have a good shot at being 3-1 or 4-0 when the Canes come to town. This game can either be a reminder that Clemson is still the ACC’s king, or it can be an official changing of the guard. — Hale
Nov. 14 at Miami. The defending ACC champs enter 2026 with a much different vibe than the Blue Devils had at the conclusion of 2025. The expectation was to have the bulk of their offensive stars back to make a run at the College Football Playoff, but Miami swooped in and grabbed quarterback Darian Mensah and receiver Cooper Barkate out of the portal at the last minute, leaving Duke in the dust. If there was already a simmering rivalry here — Duke coach Manny Diaz was fired at Miami to make way for Mario Cristobal — then there’s outright hostility now. If this were the only game Duke won in 2026, Blue Devils fans would still probably be happy. — Hale
Oct. 17 at Miami. We cannot choose Alabama as the season-defining game because winning the opener against the Tide last year should have defined the season. Instead, the Seminoles went 5-7. The Miami game comes at a critical point in the schedule as Florida State opens ACC play against SMU on Labor Day, then plays Virginia and at Louisville before Miami. The rival Hurricanes just played for a national title. There is no better way to define a season than getting a win here. — Andrea Adelson
Nov. 28 at Georgia. Georgia Tech head coach Brent Key will tell you until the end of time that the season-defining game for the Yellow Jackets is the one against the team in red and black (Georgia). That’s going to be no different this season, even with early nonconference contests against Colorado and Tennessee, and road conference games starting on the left coast at Stanford, as well as at Virginia Tech, Pittsburgh and Clemson. But given the opponent, and how good they have been in Kirby Smart’s tenure, the answer here is Georgia. — Harry Lyles Jr.
Sept. 5 vs. Ole Miss. The Cardinals open the 2026 season in Nashville against returning QB Trinidad Chambliss and Ole Miss. This game could set the table for Jeff Brohm’s team. If the Cardinals are able to beat the Rebels, who were semifinalists in last year’s College Football Playoff, they probably will feel confident looking at the rest of the schedule that there’s not a game they can’t win. — Lyles
Nov. 7 at Notre Dame. It feels like old times now that there is true passion — and maybe a little extra hatred — in what was a heated rivalry in the 1980s. Miami beat Notre Dame to open the 2025 season, and that victory essentially gave the Hurricanes the last spot into the 12-team College Football Playoff field over the Irish. Now Miami will travel to South Bend to play in what figures to be a game with heavy CFP implications. This could be a make-or-break game for both teams’ playoff hopes again. — Adelson
Steve Angeli tore his Achilles tendon and the Syracuse season fell off a cliff from there. Angeli is expected back for the start of 2026 and while Syracuse will have played eight games before Clemson, a win here would no doubt define the season — whether it is going poorly or well to that point. — Adelson
Oct. 3 at Florida State. Why not have Florida State as the season-defining game for the second year in a row? The Cavaliers’ double-overtime win over the Seminoles in 2025 helped launch them to a school-record 11 wins and an appearance in the ACC championship game. Winning in Tallahassee would essentially show Virginia is not going anywhere just yet. — Adelson
Nov. 20 at Miami. The ACC couldn’t have made it much more difficult for James Franklin in Year 1. The Hokies have three Friday night games, two of which come during an extremely difficult back half of the schedule that includes trips to Clemson, SMU and Miami. No matter what happens before the trip to Coral Gables, a win against the Canes would be a heckuva statement about the possibilities for the program under Franklin. A loss would help indicate just how much work has to be done to close the gap with the ACC’s best. — Dinich
Oct. 31 vs. Virginia. Wake’s surprising nine-win campaign in Jake Dickert’s first season has expectations ratcheted up for 2026, but the road won’t be easy. After early dates against Akron and Purdue, the Deacons endure an absolute gauntlet — vs. Miami, at Louisville, vs. Stanford, at NC State and at Cal — before an open date. The best-case scenario might be for Wake to exit that open date at 3-4, meaning every win from Halloween on will be critical. Start with the game against Virginia — a matchup the Deacons surprisingly won last year, stunning a Hoos team with sights set on the ACC championship. If Wake can pull it off again, another bowl bid is probably all but certain. If not, the Deacons could be playing to an inside straight in November. — Hale
Big 12
Oct. 24 vs. Kansas State. The Big 12 has two teams in our Way-Too-Early Top 25 — No. 7 Texas Tech and No. 11 BYU — and ASU will visit both of them in the back half of October. In between comes a visit from a retooled and potentially dangerous K-State team. A win would keep the Sun Devils’ Big 12 hopes ever so slightly afloat even if they lose one of the two big games, but a loss would doom them to also-ran status. — Bill Connelly
Sept. 12 at BYU. Brent Brennan’s Wildcats won their last five Big 12 games of 2025 to bounce back to 9-4 after a 4-8 stumble in 2024. Are Noah Fifita & Co. Big 12 contenders in 2026, or are they simply hoping for another solid season? Well, two weeks in, they’ll either be 0-1 in conference play, or they’ll have pulled an upset of a preseason top-15 team. That will be a solid partial answer right there. — Connelly
Oct. 17 vs. Notre Dame. If BYU wants to prove it belongs with the big boys, this is as close to a must-win game as it will play. It would have been an appetizing consolation bowl game last season after both teams narrowly missed the playoff, but here it could serve as a potential springboard to the playoff in 2026. — Bonagura
Oct. 3 at Arizona State. While the opener against a new-look Auburn squad in Atlanta provides an intriguing test, Baylor’s first few conference games will tell us a lot about whether coach Dave Aranda has the right answers to get off the hot seat and get this program back in the Big 12 race. The Bears’ 27-24 loss to Arizona State last season came down to a last-second field goal. Winning this one on the road could take some heat off heading into a bye week, with rival TCU up next after that. — Max Olson
Oct. 24 vs. Texas Tech. It’s safe to say the Bearcats have this one circled on the calendar as former Cincinnati quarterback Brendan Sorsby makes his return to Nippert Stadium with the defending Big 12 champs. Texas Tech survived a 44-41 shootout on a missed game-tying field goal when these teams last met in 2024. For Cincinnati, this year’s game kicks off a challenging three-game stretch with Utah coming in next, followed by a road test at Houston. — Olson
Jalon Daniels, Daniel Hishaw Jr. and Bryce Foster. If Kansas is going to improve on its 5-7 finish last fall, it’s going to have to get rolling with its new core early. What better time to start than with the program’s first visit from Border War rivals Missouri since 2005? — Lederman
Oct. 10 vs Houston. The Wildcats haven’t dropped a conference home opener since 2021, and their visit from Houston could be a tone-setter for the program’s 2026 Big 12 campaign. Can first-year coach Collin Klein rejuvenate quarterback Avery Johnson after his down year in 2025? Will Kansas State have enough to rebuild its vastly depleted defense? We should get firmer answers to both questions when a talented Houston team visits Manhattan before Kansas State dives into the heart of a tricky league schedule. — Lederman
Nov. 14 vs Texas Tech. First-year coach Eric Morris and former North Texas quarterback Drew Mestemaker worked together to power the nation’s No. 1 scoring offense last fall. In 2026, they face just three teams that posted a winning record a year ago — including a dismantled Iowa State team — across their first 10 games. After executing one of the most extensive offseason roster overhauls anywhere across the sport, why can’t the Cowboys be in Big 12 contention when Texas Tech rolls into Stillwater and Morris hosts his alma mater in Week 12? — Connelly
Nov. 28 at Texas Tech. This is an ambitious vision for the Horned Frogs, who quietly finished with nine wins and a memorable bowl win over USC despite starting quarterback Josh Hoover opting out to transfer to Indiana. Sonny Dykes hired UConn’s Gordon Sammis to give TCU a new, sturdier look on offense and added battle-tested Jaden Craig, an NFL prospect who led Harvard to multiple Ivy League titles and the FCS playoffs, as a grad transfer to run Sammis’ disciplined attack. The Frogs will debut in Ireland against North Carolina. If they can get it rolling this season again, a showdown in Dykes’ hometown of Lubbock against his alma mater would be quite a scene. — Dave Wilson
Sept. 19 vs. Houston. The Red Raiders have become the game circled on every Big 12 team’s schedule. They will certainly want revenge for last year’s loss against Arizona State, but Houston arrives first, and Willie Fritz has already worked his magic with the Cougars, getting them up to 10 wins in Year 2, including a Texas Bowl win over LSU. The Red Raiders’ season sets up for another run like last season’s. But this game, in Week 3 in Lubbock, will be their first real test and it will mark a huge test for Houston and Fritz to see if he can level up once more. — Wilson
Sept. 26 vs. TCU. Scott Frost’s second year in his first tenure as UCF’s head coach was a 13-0 season. In an extremely exciting and competitive Big 12, that feels unlikely, but it’s still imperative the Knights get off to a good start in conference play. They immediately follow this game up with road games at Houston and Oklahoma State, before getting BYU and Baylor at home. If the TCU game goes poorly, things could snowball. — Lyles
Nov. 7 vs. BYU. First-year coach Morgan Scalley will try to emerge from Kyle Whittingham’s shadow throughout the 2026 season, but regardless of how the first eight games go, the tilt with BYU will likely shape how his debut campaign is remembered. It’s reasonable to think Utah could go into this game undefeated, but even if there are a few stumbles along the way, a win here would go a long way toward building momentum for the future. — Bonagura
Sept. 26 vs. Oklahoma State. The Big 12 opener against a totally rebuilt Oklahoma State squad should tell us plenty about where Rich Rodriguez has his team in Year 2. Like the Cowboys, West Virginia is rolling into 2026 with more than 80 newcomers on the roster. Both teams will still be figuring things out at this point in the season, but a statement win by WVU could generate valuable momentum to start league play. — Olson
Big Ten
Oct. 24 vs. Oregon. The Illini have produced marquee home wins the past two seasons: a 21-7 victory over Michigan in 2024 and a thrilling 34-32 comeback over USC last season. Illinois figures to have an opportunity for its biggest victory yet under coach Bret Bielema against the Ducks, who steamrolled the Illini 38-9 in 2024. — Jake Trotter
Oct. 17 vs. Ohio State. The defending national champions will be under an even brighter spotlight in 2026, but their schedule is largely backloaded without a projected ranked opponent until the Buckeyes come to town. There’s a reason the Big Ten announced this game, a league championship rematch, before any others on its loaded 2026 schedule. Indiana hasn’t beaten the Buckeyes in Bloomington since 1988, also the last time the Hoosiers recorded consecutive victories against Ohio State. — Adam Rittenberg
Oct. 3 vs. Ohio State. The Hawkeyes haven’t faced Ohio State at Kinnick Stadium since 2017, when Nate Stanley threw five touchdowns as they stunned the Buckeyes 55-24. An early October win over Ohio State could propel Iowa into the Big Ten title and playoff conversations. — Trotter
Sept. 19 vs. Virginia Tech. No, it’s not the toughest opponent on the schedule, but it’s at home against a familiar face — first-year Hokies coach James Franklin, who was once an assistant with Terps coach Mike Locksley under Ralph Friedgen at Maryland. This is a game that recruits will be paying attention to and a game Locksley needs to win — not just to boost confidence in the direction of the program, but because it’s only going to get more difficult with trips to Ohio State and USC down the road. — Dinich
Oct. 17 vs. Northwestern. The Spartans would obviously love to beat rival Michigan at the Big House on Nov. 7. But as new coach Pat Fitzgerald attempts to rebuild Michigan State, getting a win over his former school would be big for him — and for the Spartans’ chances of reaching bowl eligibility for the first time since 2021. — Trotter
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Oct. 24 vs. Indiana. Ohio State is always the defining game for the Wolverines. But Michigan can prove it’s for real again against the defending national champs after two up-and-down seasons under Sherrone Moore. The Wolverines failed to defeat a ranked team last year and didn’t win one in 2024 until the stunning victory over the Buckeyes in the regular-season finale. — Trotter
Oct. 24 vs. Iowa. The Gophers got embarrassed last season in Iowa City 41-3, and the Hawkeyes have won 10 of the last 11 meetings in the rivalry. To get back the Floyd of Rosedale trophy, the Gophers will have to finally figure out how they can generate offense against Iowa. Minnesota has failed to score more than 14 points over the last four meetings in the series. — Trotter
Oct. 31 vs. Washington. Huskers coach Matt Rhule is 0-10 against AP Top 25 opponents since landing in Lincoln (and 2-26 in such games for his career). Nebraska hasn’t beaten a ranked foe since 2016. That reality simply has to change if the Huskers are going to take another step in 2026. With daunting home games against Indiana and Ohio State and trips to Oregon and Iowa on the schedule, Nebraska’s best opportunity to sort the matter could come with a bit of Halloween magic when Washington pays a visit to Memorial Stadium in Week 9. — Lederman
Oct. 2 vs. Penn State. Northwestern’s decades-long wait for a new stadium ends with the unveiling of Ryan Field, the $862 million venture that is the largest stadium project in college football history. After playing their first two home games on campus, the Wildcats will move into their new home for a Friday night showcase game against Penn State, a team they upset last year in coach James Franklin’s final game with the Nittany Lions. Northwestern is hopeful that the 35,000-seat facility provides the home-field advantage the program has historically lacked. — Rittenberg
Nov. 7 vs. Oregon. Good luck finding a tougher schedule in college football than what the Buckeyes face next season. Ohio State travels to Texas, Iowa, Indiana and USC — any of which could be season-defining games before November. Assuming the Buckeyes can survive that gauntlet, a home bout against the Ducks figures to have major Big Ten title and playoff implications. Beat Oregon, and the Buckeyes should be back in the playoff, even if they stumble once or twice earlier in the season. — Trotter
Nov. 7 at Ohio State. With quarterback Dante Moore and other key contributors returning, the Ducks enter a season where anything short of a national title could be deemed disappointing. They visit USC in Week 4 and also visit Illinois, but Ohio State likely will provide the first gauge of their championship worthiness. Oregon hasn’t forgotten the beating it took from the Buckeyes in the Rose Bowl CFP quarterfinal two years ago. The Ducks won their last game at Ohio Stadium, but that was as a Pac-12 member in 2021. — Connelly
Oct. 17 at Michigan. If there were a Big Ten schedule tailor-made for a first-year head coach, this would be it. Matt Campbell doesn’t have to face Ohio State or Oregon. He gets USC at home. The nonconference schedule includes Marshall, Temple and Buffalo. In theory, Penn State could be undefeated heading into Ann Arbor. It’s the first of the team’s two toughest road trips, with Washington the other. If Campbell can win the battle of first-year coaches in Ann Arbor, Penn State could make a surprise run at the CFP. — Dinich
Sept. 19 at UCLA. A Week 3 game is not usually season-defining, but Purdue must establish early on that coach Barry Odom’s second season will be different, especially in Big Ten play. The Boilermakers went 0-9 in league games last fall while being outscored 309-130. UCLA is in transition under new coach Bob Chesney, and a Purdue win in Pasadena — the team’s first game there since the 2001 Rose Bowl behind quarterback Drew Brees — could be the catalyst Odom needs. — Rittenberg
Sept. 19 vs. USC. What if — just what if — the Scarlet Knights can knock off the Trojans at home and earn a 4-0 September start before Indiana comes to town Oct. 3? If Rutgers is going to reach six wins this year, it’s going to have to win early and win at home. The Scarlet Knights avoid Ohio State and Oregon, but an early home upset will be critical with four of the final seven games on the road. — Dinich
Nov. 28 vs. USC. The Bruins seemingly have a long way to go before they’ll be viewed as competitively relevant in the Big Ten, but in this era that can happen overnight. That’s why the range of what’s possible in Bob Chesney’s first year as coach is so broad. There isn’t really one game on their schedule that outweighs the rest until the rivalry game in the finale. — Bonagura
Sept. 26 vs. Oregon. It could easily change by the end of the year, but USC’s trajectory for 2026 will be set by how it fares against the Ducks in the fourth game of the season. A loss to the Ducks will keep USC outside the national conversation just as conference play begins, while a win would signify a meaningful step toward returning to national relevance. — Bonagura
Nov. 21 vs. Indiana. The Huskies should enter 2026 with high expectations and have a relatively manageable schedule over the first two months. However, with Indiana and Oregon to end the year, a strong start to the season could easily get wiped away. A win against the Hoosiers, though, would be the program’s biggest win in years. — Bonagura
Sept. 26 at Penn State. Coach Luke Fickell and the Badgers desperately need an early notable win to change the overall trajectory of the program. Could they get it in State College against the Nittany Lions, who are retooling under new coach Matt Campbell? This will be the conference debut for new quarterback Colton Joseph, who transferred in from Old Dominion after being named the Sun Belt Offensive Player of the Year. QB consistency has held the Badgers back in recent seasons. They are hopeful Joseph can finally solve that. — Trotter
Nov. 7 vs. Miami. If you need the history lesson, you can probably find a rerun on the ACC Network. Too soon? Notre Dame’s 27-24 loss at Miami in the 2025 season opener was the reason the Irish dropped from No. 10 to No. 11 on Selection Day, falling out of the College Football Playoff. This year, under a new rule, Notre Dame is guaranteed a spot in the CFP if it finishes in the top 12. A home win against Miami could be equally as important in a head-to-head debate in December. — Dinich
SEC
Oct. 10 vs. Georgia. Coming off an 11-4 season, Kalen DeBoer will be under pressure to turn the Crimson Tide around. Alabama should be 5-0 going into its home game against Georgia, and a victory over the Bulldogs would cement Alabama’s status as an SEC title contender. With three straight games against Tennessee (road), Texas A&M (home) and LSU (road) looming next, the Tide need to win the first one. — Mark Schlabach
LaNorris Sellers gets an early shot at the Tide this time around, and one way or another, this result will help to define what’s to come in Columbia. — Connelly
Sept. 26 vs. Texas. For one, it’s the Vols’ SEC opener. Second, it’s Texas’ first-ever trip to Knoxville, and fans are going to be riled up for «The REAL UT» debate. This is a classic «measuring stick» game. The Vols are breaking in a new quarterback with Joey Aguilar’s legal attempts to gain another year being denied, and the much-maligned defense will get a makeover with longtime DC Jim Knowles taking over. Taking on Texas’ retooled offense around Arch Manning will show if the defense is ready to help Tennessee bounce back. — Wilson
Oct. 10 vs. Oklahoma. The Longhorns are eagerly awaiting a home rematch with Ohio State on Sept. 12, with experience under Arch Manning’s belt. But, like last season, they could lose that game and still have plenty to play for. As always, Oklahoma is a pivotal game, with a trip to Knoxville to face Tennessee before it, followed by a bye week before the Sooners. Win there, get Florida, Ole Miss, Mississippi State at home, then a trip to Missouri, and the schedule sets up for a massive finish with trips to LSU and Texas A&M with Arkansas at home sandwiched in the middle. The Longhorns have big ambitions, and this OU game will be for more than bragging rights. — Wilson
Nov. 27 vs. Texas. For everything Mike Elko has done in two seasons at the helm in College Station to get the Aggies back into the national picture, the game against Texas the last two years has come with a chance for an SEC championship appearance on the line. The Longhorns won both games, keeping the Aggies home from Atlanta with bitter losses in a renewed rivalry that never really went away. With the game returning to College Station this year, the Aggies will need to vanquish the Horns to get to where they want to go and get over the hump. — Wilson
Oct. 10 vs. Ole Miss. The Commodores’ schedule has its ebbs and flows, with four winnable games to open the season, followed by a road trip to Georgia, which would test any team in the country. In the post-Diego Pavia era, this will be the first gauge for how far the Vanderbilt program has come. But Ole Miss the next week at home is the canary in the coal mine for the rest of the year, followed by Arkansas, Kentucky and Mississippi State. A big win over Ole Miss could jump-start that stretch before the Commodores finish with Alabama, Florida and Tennessee. — Wilson
