Could one win get Scotland out of World Cup group?

After a 27-year absence from the World Cup finals, Scotland are back and know they will be taking on Brazil, Morocco and Haiti in the United States next June.

It is a daunting task for Steve Clarke and his team, but the Tartan Army will already be going to bed with an American dream of progression.

Their chances will be boosted by the expanded format, where even finishing third in Group C may be enough.

The eight best third-place sides in the group stage will join the group winners and runners-up in the first knockout round.

So could one win be enough for Scotland? Here is all you need to know.

There are only four third-place sides who will miss out on a place in the last 32 of the World Cup.

Which means getting three points, and a respectable goal difference, would go a long way to ranking in the top eight of the third-best sides.

A win and a draw – so four points – would almost certainly be enough.

Looking at the last two European Championships as a comparison, four points was enough for a third-place team to qualify.

Slovenia in 2024 and Ukraine in 2020 went through after finishing third in their respective sections with three points, edging out other teams on goal difference.

In the Euros four of the six best third-place sides go through to the last 16, in other words two third of them.

That’s the same ratio as the 2026 World Cup.

The best chance for a Scotland win looks most likely in the first game against Haiti.

Ranked 84th in the world, the Carribean nation qualified for their first World Cup since 1974 by beating Nicaragua last month.

Manager Sebastien Migne has been unable to set foot on Haiti since being appointed 18 months ago because a conflict in the country forces them to play their home matches 500 miles away in Curacao – an island nation just off the coast of South American country Venezuela.

Wolves’ midfielder Jean-Ricner Bellegarde is among their squad, some of whom play in Major League Soccer or European leagues.

Morocco are second seeds but are ranked 11th in the world, were semi-finalists at the last World Cup and boast the likes of Paris Saint-Germain’s Achraf Hakimin and Real Madrid’s Brahim Diaz.

They won all eight of their qualifiers, scoring 22 goals and conceding just twice.

While Brazil stars like Vinicius Junior and Gabriel need little intorduction, nor does manager Carlo Ancelotti.

However, the five-time winners struggled in qualifying. They ended up fifth in the 10-team section in South America, losing six times, including to Bolivia.

So if Scotland can beat Haiti and either take a point or narrow defeat against the top two seeds, they stand a good chance of going through to the last 32.

Not that Clarke is taking anyone lightly.

«Haiti as the pot four team will be difficult,» he told BBC Scotland.

«They won their qualifying section quite comfortably but we managed to win ours as well so bring it on.»

Former Scotland captain Scott Brown: «We’ve got to look to beat Haiti, it will be a huge game for us. Morocco, we’ll be underdogs from looking at the world rankings, it’s a hard game.

«Brazil is the big one. Everyone will want to be at that Scotland v Brazil game. Seeing that yellow shirt, they’ve got top quality players. As do Morocco.

«We’ve got to beat Haiti and try to pick up points somewhere else. There is hope for us.»

Former Scotland forward James McFadden: «It’s a tough draw. You’ve got the glamour tie against Brazil. Then Morocco, people will tip them to be a dark horse because they got to a semi-final last time.

«And you hate to say it, because it’s international football, but it’s a winnable tie against Haiti.

«It makes it a little bit better. If you finish third it gives you an opportunity. We should be going to try to upset people, particulartly Brazil and Morocco.»

Scotland will open against Haiti on Saturday 13 June in Boston or New York.

They will then take on Morocco on Friday 19 June in Boston or Philadelphia, before finishing against Brazil in either Atlanta or Miami on Wednesday 24 June.

The venues and kick-off times will be confirmed on Saturday, 6 December in a live global broadcast on Saturday, 6 December at 17:00 GMT (12:00 local time).

The first batch of tickets went on sale at the start of October, with more than 4.5 million fans entering a draw for a chance to buy them.

However, some fans will be able to apply for tickets this month for Scotland’s games.

Members of the Scotland Supporters Club (SSC), made up of those who go to home and away games regularly, will be given access to apply from Monday, 15 December until the final deadline on 13 January.

These tickets will be allocated based on the Scottish FA’s loyalty points system.

It is not yet clear how many tickets will be specifically allocated to Scotland fans, given the venues are still to be confirmed.

Those who are not SSC members will have to wait for a last-minute sales phase which will take place closer to the tournament.

Fifa is adopting a ‘dynamic’ pricing model for the tournament, meaning ticket prices for matches deemed high demand could be raised significantly during later sales periods.