Don’t be surprised if … Hart, Bridges are among top 25 players this season

Each week in the NBA is its own story — full of surprises, both positive and negative — and fantasy football managers must decide what to believe and what not to believe moving forward. Perhaps we can help. If any of these thoughts come true … don’t be surprised!

Don’t be surprised if … four New York Knicks are top-25 fantasy options this season

The obvious choices are C/PF Karl-Anthony Towns and PG Jalen Brunson. Fantasy managers invested early in drafts because the former averaged 46.6 fantasy points last season and the latter finished at 43.3 points. Nothing against SF/SG Mikal Bridges, SF/SG Josh Hart or SF/PF OG Anunoby, but they seemed a bit overrated in this season’s drafts. Hey, they are the Knicks, and everyone is paying attention to them. Are they overrated today? Well, things have changed.

For example, the best thing Bridges brought to a fantasy team last season was his durability. His scoring was down, in part because he attempted fewer shots per game, and while everyone acknowledges he plays terrific defense, fantasy managers lacked statistical proof of it. Last season, Bridges averaged fewer than one steal per game. This season, Bridges is one of four players (and the most valuable one) averaging at least 2.0 SPG. His rebounds, assists and 3-pointers are up, even in fewer minutes. This version of Bridges is incredibly valuable.

Hart went ahead of Bridges in ESPN ADP, but Hart soon became waiver wire fodder as he struggled to produce relevant fantasy numbers as a reserve. Hart averaged only 9.9 PPG, 6.6 RPG and 4.5 APG in 14 games off the bench, shooting below 50% from the field and 34.8% from 3-point range. The Knicks looked beatable with C Mitchell Robinson starting.

However, with Hart starting the past nine games, the Knicks look dominant, in part because Hart has 16.4 PPG, 9.6 RPG, 5.7 APG and 2.0 SPG with excellent shooting. He has never shot 44% on 3-pointers before, or even close to it. Hart is not only New York’s most valuable fantasy option since returning to the starting lineup, he is among the top 15 in all the NBA!

Anunoby remains a valuable fantasy option, though his rebounds and assists are down since Hart’s minutes rose. He isn’t alone. Anunoby can maintain top-50 status scoring 15 PPG without the other stuff except the steals and solid shooting. Hart likely won’t remain the team’s top fantasy option for long, but he certainly is resurrected as a starter. With Brunson, there is little to worry about except Hart stealing his assists. He has five or fewer assists in six of the nine games with Hart starting. This is more applicable for roto/categories formats than points, but still, value is value.

The Knicks might be the best team in the Eastern Conference, and if the members of the current starting lineup — with Hart in there — stay healthy, these four fellows maintain arguably the top foursome/fivesome in the sport, and in fantasy. This is all happening despite the changing of coaches (from Tom Thibodeau to Mike Brown) and everyone’s minutes going down some. That is interesting and unexpected.

Don’t be surprised if … Memphis Grizzlies C/PF Jaren Jackson Jr. is no longer a top-100 fantasy option

Permit me to take a break from ripping PG Ja Morant (you can’t help the fantasy club from the sidelines) and turn to his teammate Jackson, who prior to this season was one of my underrated favorites. Morant (calf) is injured again and when he did manage to play, he shot only 35% from the field and looked as if he wanted to be anywhere else than on the court. Morant’s managers ignore the myriad missed games and his statistical regression in scoring for recent seasons.

With Jackson, however, his first quarter of the season is perhaps more disappointing. Though he is playing, few could expect this extreme regression. He should be thriving sans Morant in the lineup. Instead, Jackson, the league’s Defensive Player of the Year in 2023 who averaged better than 22.0 PPG to in the two seasons after, is not thriving. Jackson is averaging 17.0 PPG for the season, but he scored only 26 points over the past three games. He is typically a major source of blocked shots, but he recently had a stretch in which he blocked nary a shot in six of seven contests. Ninety players boast more fantasy points.

I have occasionally complained about Jackson — a big, wide force at 6-10, 245 pounds — failing to average as many as seven rebounds per game over any season, but he might not average even five boards this season. Despite missing only two games, Jackson has fewer points than Onyeka Okongwu and Jeremiah Fears, fewer rebounds than Brandin Podziemski, Jarace Walker and VJ Edgecombe, and only one more blocked shot than Tyrese Maxey. Jackson averaging 17.0 PPG, 5.0 RPG and 1.0 BPG isn’t much different from what Kelly Oubre Jr. was doing before his injury (16.8 PPG, 5.1 RPG, 0.8 BPG). That’s not what anyone expected when we made Jackson a top-50 pick.

The Grizzlies should remain in play-in contention all season regardless of how this Morant circus ends (perhaps with a trade), but I don’t see Jackson suddenly turning things around, even when Morant returns. Despite obvious opportunity to score more, he is taking fewer shots from the field, deferring to the likes of Cedric Coward and Cam Spencer. This fellow blocked 3.0 shots per game in 2022-23, and 1.5 BPG last season. We’re not getting that now. Perhaps Jackson isn’t quite right from offseason surgery for turf toe, too. From his prior numbers, Jackson would be someone we would target in fantasy leagues, but I’m not sure I would move quickly on that one.

Don’t be surprised if … Chris Paul becomes a worthy deep-league option soon

Paul, 40, might not have been a good fit on the LA Clippers, but I have a hard time believing he is done as a contributor, and fantasy managers should pay attention to where he lands — perhaps as soon as next week, since Paul is eligible to be traded on Monday. Don’t look at Paul’s measly statistics this season; the Clippers are arguably the league’s biggest disappointment. Few seem happy there, from the players to the coaches, and it is foolish to blame Paul.

Last season, Paul started all 82 games for an up-and-coming San Antonio Spurs team and, while his numbers paled in comparison to the ones that will guide him into the Hall of Fame on the first try, he averaged 7.4 APG and 1.3 SPG. That might mean little in an ESPN standard league, where you want more scoring and 3-pointers and whatever, but I play in deeper formats (and perhaps you do as well). Only five players totaled more assists last season, and a mere three had more assists and steals.

Paul achieved his 2024-25 numbers in 28.0 MPG, and perhaps it is folly to expect that whichever team acquires him can present him with the same situation for minutes and usage. Fantasy managers seeking assists for roto/categories formats or overall production in points formats should target Ryan Nembhard, Collin Gillespie and other youngsters first.

There are some assists out there. Just don’t forget about the older guy, too, because he mattered last season, and chances are good he can again.