Eight teams, four matchups, one champ: Previewing the NBA Cup quarterfinals

The 2025 Emirates NBA Cup quarterfinals commence on Tuesday following the conclusion of group play on Nov. 28. Four matchups will determine which teams advance to the semifinals in Las Vegas on Saturday.

Initially, the Miami Heat will face the Orlando Magic, followed by the Toronto Raptors hosting the New York Knicks. The victors of each game will represent the East. The Western Conference games are scheduled for Wednesday, with the 23-1 Oklahoma City Thunder taking on the Phoenix Suns, while the Los Angeles Lakers will face the San Antonio Spurs.

The Magic will have to move forward without their star, Franz Wagner, who exited Sunday’s contest due to a high ankle sprain. However, there is positive news for the Magic as Paolo Banchero returns from a groin injury sustained on Nov. 12. In the West, Luka Doncic returns for the Lakers after missing two games due to the birth of his daughter. While LeBron James saw his 1,297-game streak come to an end last Thursday, he and the Lakers aim to become the first two-time NBA Cup champions.

Can anyone halt the Thunder’s momentum in the West? And will Wagner’s injury crush Orlando’s chances of making it to Las Vegas? Our NBA Insiders tackle the most pressing questions leading up to the quarterfinal matchups.

Eastern Conference

Miami Heat at Orlando Magic | 6 p.m. ET, Prime

What impact will Franz Wagner’s injury have on the Magic versus the Heat and beyond?

Orlando finally appeared complete — for just one game.

The Magic spent 23 days awaiting the return of star Paolo Banchero from a groin strain on Friday. Less than 48 hours later, Franz Wagner suffered a left high ankle sprain, significantly altering Tuesday’s NBA Cup quarterfinal. Despite the best possible news regarding Wagner’s injury — an MRI indicated no structural damage, sources informed ESPN — Orlando will confront its in-state rival without its most consistent player. Wagner boasts an average of 22.7 points, a career-high 6.1 rebounds, and his 3-point shooting has improved from 29.5% last season to 36.0%, which is a significant factor in the Magic going 7-3 without Banchero.

Rather than easing his way back, Banchero must immediately carry the offensive responsibilities, aided by scoring and outside shooting from Desmond Bane and Jalen Suggs. Anthony Black has already played a pivotal role this season, and his adaptability will be crucial for the Magic to endure without Wagner for an estimated two to four weeks. Wagner scored 32 points in Friday’s 106-105 victory over Miami, while the returning Banchero contributed nine points on only eight shots in 20 minutes. Following 16 points on 11 shots over 24 minutes in Sunday’s defeat to the Knicks, Banchero’s offensive game is gradually improving ahead of the Cup quarters.

Although Orlando will miss one of its key scorers, Miami guard Tyler Herro (toe) is likely to play and Davion Mitchell (groin) is anticipated to be available. The Heat have suffered four losses in their last five games, but Herro’s potential return, combined with Wagner’s injury, may provide Miami the lift it requires to reach Vegas. — Ohm Youngmisuk

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New York Knicks at Toronto Raptors | 8:30 p.m. ET, Prime

Will the Knicks bring their blazing offense, and will Karl-Anthony Towns contribute significantly?

New York’s offense has operated like a well-oiled machine through the first 23 games — ranking third in NBA efficiency and fourth in 3-pointers made per game. The Knicks are also meeting the Raptors at an opportune moment, as Toronto has faltered, losing five of six games after an impressive 13-1 run that pushed them up the standings. Making matters more challenging, the Raptors will be without forward RJ Barrett, who is set to miss at least another week due to a knee sprain.

However, for the Knicks, there’s one complication: this NBA Cup quarterfinal is being played in Toronto. New York tends to perform like an average offense away from Madison Square Garden (with a mere 3-6 record on the road).

Additionally, Towns might be absent due to a calf injury that kept him out of Sunday’s victory. The return of OG Anunoby — who played 23 minutes against the Magic after missing nine games due to a hamstring strain — may not provide much relief if Towns’ injury hampers him further.

Towns has not had the most fruitful season thus far. His offensive numbers have dipped compared to last season, his first in New York following his trade from the Minnesota Timberwolves just before training camp. This change could be due to the new approach from coach Mike Brown, involving Towns receiving the ball in different scenarios, alongside a greater emphasis on playmakers such as forward Mikal Bridges. — Vincent Goodwill

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Path to the semifinals

Miami and Orlando recently faced each other in a Cup quarterfinal preview, with the Magic clinching a narrow 106-105 win at home as Banchero returned from injury. (The Magic also triumphed over the Heat at home on opening night.)

Both Florida teams were on fire last week but have since tapered off: Orlando went on a 9-2 run before losing two of its last three encounters, while Miami has seen its six-game winning streak followed by a disappointing 1-4 stretch.

Toronto is also struggling as it heads into the Cup quarterfinals, having dropped five out of its last six after a nine-game winning streak. Conversely, the Knicks are enjoying their best form this season, embarking on a 7-1 run — aided by a kind schedule. Notably, five of the Knicks’ past seven victories have been against teams with losing records; the only exceptions being Orlando and Toronto, whom the Knicks overwhelmed 116-94 on Nov. 30.

These two Eastern Conference quarterfinals may serve as potential playoff previews. The standings are fluid, likely to shift multiple times before the regular season concludes; however, projections from ESPN’s Basketball Power Index currently indicate that Orlando is the most probable first-round opponent for Miami, and New York for Toronto. — Zach Kram

Western Conference

Phoenix Suns at Oklahoma City Thunder | 7:30 p.m. ET, Prime

Will the Thunder ever taste defeat again?

This statement may sound exaggerated, yet Oklahoma City is a powerhouse of historic magnitude. Despite ranking second in the league for games missed due to injury, the Thunder is the third team in NBA history to achieve at least 23 wins in their initial 24 games, joining the ranks of the 2015-16 Golden State Warriors and the 1969-70 New York Knicks. Their average point differential stands at plus-16.1 points, poised to surpass their record of plus-12.9 set last season. The Thunder have clinched 15 consecutive victories since their sole loss of the season, which transpired in Portland on Nov. 5, when the Trail Blazers rallied from a 22-point deficit against an Oklahoma City squad missing several key players on the second day of back-to-backs.

Phoenix came close to scaring OKC more than any other opponent since that loss, trimming a 15-point deficit down to one during the closing moments of the Nov. 28 Cup group stage finale at Paycom Center. Eventually, Shai Gilgeous-Alexander scored ten of his game-high 37 points in the finale’s last 2:40.

Merely getting the reigning MVP to play in the fourth quarter this season is an achievement, a feat Gilgeous-Alexander has accomplished only 11 times. Yet keeping the game close only seems to enhance the Thunder’s abilities, illustrated by their plus-41.4 net rating in clutch scenarios (games within five points in the last five minutes or overtime), far exceeding the league’s other teams. — Tim MacMahon

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San Antonio Spurs at Los Angeles Lakers | 10 p.m. ET, Prime

Are the Spurs capable of dealing with Luka Doncic and the Lakers without Victor Wembanyama?

It’s feasible, but it won’t be straightforward. Despite San Antonio’s squad being at full strength with Wembanyama, Doncic tore apart the Spurs’ defense, coming close to achieving a triple-double while Stephon Castle took up most of the responsibility for defending him. Despite the Lakers finishing with a 21-0 scoring run, San Antonio had an opportunity to tie the game with 0.2 seconds remaining — only for Julian Champagnie to miss two critical free throws. Second-chance points were pivotal in the teams’ initial encounter, with the Lakers outscoring San Antonio 28-11 in that area.

Lakers big man Deandre Ayton shot 9-of-13 for 22 points while grabbing 10 rebounds, as Wembanyama was largely restricted in foul trouble before eventually fouling out. The Frenchman is not anticipated to play in this matchup as he recovers from a calf strain. Veteran player Luke Kornet, who has averaged 2.1 blocks and made a game-saving play on Dec. 3 at Orlando, will likely lead San Antonio’s defense. Kornet, a free-agent signing, has played a key role in the Spurs achieving a 7-2 record during Wembanyama’s absence, demonstrating his tenacity in the paint that should help him contend with Ayton.

San Antonio will probably struggle to find adequate answers for Doncic and may have to choose between allowing him to either score or facilitate opportunities. This challenge becomes even more pronounced with LeBron James back in action, who was absent in the teams’ first matchup. — Michael C. Wright

Path to the semifinals

After falling to the Milwaukee Bucks in the 2024 NBA Cup finals, the Thunder emerge as the obvious favorites this year, boasting a stunning 23-1 season start.

Potential playoff previews may emerge from the Western bracket. Current projections from ESPN BPI suggest that Phoenix is the most probable first-round opponent for the Thunder and propose the Lakers or Spurs as potential second-round adversaries.

Although a Suns triumph would be a remarkable upset, navigating through the semis in Vegas could present the Thunder with a more significant challenge. The Lakers would function as the de facto home team on a neutral ground, and the Spurs’ breakthrough season, steered by an emerging superstar, draws parallels to Oklahoma City’s path two years prior.

The Lakers significantly handed the Thunder their largest defeat in the 2024-25 regular season, winning 126-99 in Oklahoma City in April, driven by 30 points from Doncic. The Thunder bounced back with a comfortable victory over Los Angeles just two days later, but Doncic’s size and versatility have consistently posed challenges for Oklahoma City (and numerous other teams).

A meeting between the Spurs and Thunder could reignite the rivalry between Chet Holmgren and Wembanyama, tracing back to the 2021 FIBA U19 World Cup final, assuming Wembanyama returns from the calf strain that has sidelined him since Nov. 17. Due to injuries, the two talented young centers have only clashed once following their rookie seasons, with Wembanyama struggling, scoring six points on 1-of-5 shooting in October 2024. — Kevin Pelton