As we get late into the NFL season, I always remind myself that leaning on motivation and need to win are overpriced angles in the betting market and not actionable takes.
This applied last week when the Tampa Bay Buccaneers (7-5) were going up against a 2-10 New Orleans Saints team. The Bucs spent all week as 8.5-point favorites before clear sharp money on Sunday flooded the sportsbooks on the Saints. Three hours before kickoff, all of the Saints +8.5s were moved to +8, and then an hour before the game action started the line moved further down to +7.5.
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The New Orleans money was spot on, and the Saints ended up winning outright. The Bucs went from sole possession of first place in their NFC South division to holding onto the top spot simply because of the tiebreaker and share the best record with the Carolina Panthers.
Four days later, Tampa Bay finds itself in a similar position: Facing against a weak divisional opponent without playoff incentives and sharp money fading the Bucs.
Here are my best bets for Thursday Night Football:
Odds courtesy of BetMGM, lines subject to change.
Atlanta Falcons at Tampa Bay Buccaneers (-4.5, 44.5)
The consensus opening line for this game on Sunday night when Week 14 wrapped up was Tampa Bay -5.5. Since then, BetMGM has had one single line move: a Monday morning drop to Bucs -4.5. It has stuck there ever since.
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The first thing I do to price NFL games is rely on market ratings.
Market ratings are a formula that collects all closing line data, weighting more recent games more heavily, and ranks each team on how they would fare versus an average team on a neutral field. We can then take the ratings and match them against one another, factor in a home-field value, and project a spread.
In this case, the Bucs rank 17th in the NFL (1.1 points worse than average) and the Falcons rank 26th (4.8 points worse than average). The difference between these teams is 3.7 points, and home-field advantage in the NFL is worth 1.5 points. This brings us to a projected spread at Tampa Bay -5.2, which is in line with the move from Bucs -5.5 towards the Falcons, so directionally everything makes sense.
I then look at the injury reports and see if new injuries have emerged.
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Previous injuries will be priced in, so Tristen Wirfs missing Week 14 is baked into the Week 14 closing line. During the game versus the Saints, Bucs right guard Ben Bredeson got his knee rolled up on and was placed on injury reserve on Tuesday. On the Falcons side, no new injuries were sustained. This imbalance with Tampa Bay losing an offensive lineman, and Atlanta coming out clean in Week 14, could be the reason why the line moves further towards the Falcons.
All of this is to say the spread is incredibly well priced and I don’t find anything actionable to bet. It’s still worth walking through the process, which can be applied to any other game. The drawback of the ratings system is that it does not weigh factors like divisional opponent familiarity or matchup specific angles. It is a useful tool and reference point, not the be-all and end-all.
Total: Over/Under 44.5
While the spread had nothing actionable, we do find an angle worth betting here in the game total.
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Both offenses are banged up on a short week, although the Bucs have gone all season fighting the injury bug. Right when RB Bucky Irving and WR Chris Godwin come back to the lineup, the offensive line loses Wirfs and Bredeson. Mike Evans has been out since a collarbone injury in Week 7, but he is listed questionable for this game.
On the Atlanta side, it’s Kirk Cousins at the helm again with no Michael Penix. It also seems like star WR Drake London is still going to be sidelined as well. Atlanta will rely on the running game of Bijan Robinson and Tyler Allgeier, but are up against a tough Tampa front led by nosetackle Vita Vea. He is a one-man wrecking crew against opposing rush attacks.
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With both offenses reeling with injuries, I am looking to the under. The early market moves suggest this is a strong bet. The under took some money, and while the number hasn’t moved off 44.5, it has gotten more expensive with -115 vig at BetMGM in that direction. This provides an opportunity, since 44 and 43 are both very key numbers to consider when betting NFL totals. If this line is dropping, getting in now and paying the slight extra vig for the hook on 44 is certainly worth it.
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I also like that this game is in Tampa Bay. Raymond James Stadium is outdoors. While the field conditions shouldn’t be an issue, the dome turf in Atlanta is known for playing fast. I don’t love attacking under bets there, but here I will.
Bet: Under 44.5
Player props to target
QB Kirk Cousins under 31.5 pass attempts
On the early-week NFL best bets piece I write every week, taking the under on Cousins pass attempts was a bet for me.
I felt that Atlanta might find itself in unfavorable down and distance situations, considering they will have to lean on the run game against a strong run defense group. I also had a feeling Drake London would be downgraded from questionable to doubtful, and he has yet to practice. This could lead to quick drives and punts. While Tampa Bay got skill position players back, the offensive line injuries could limit the explosive plays and lead to longer sustain drives as methods for Tampa to score. I was fading the time of possession battle for the Atlanta Falcons. That previous write up at -105 is now -110 on the same 31.5 line and this is still an actionable bet for me.
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Another way to fade Cousins passing game is going under 0.5 TDs at +200.
RB Bucky Irving over 15.5 rush attempts
One of my most profitable prop angles this season has been hitting the rushing attempts market. While the sample size is small, the handicaps have felt really strong and produced consistent results. The spot this week is over 15.5 carries by Irving.
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Irving is back to full health and full workload — he is leading the Bucs in usage out of the backfield and dominating snaps again. That is only going to continue in a “must win” spot for Tampa Bay. The Bucs are 4.5-point favorites, should control time of possession, are the home team and down offensive linemen to limit explosive plays down field.
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We see the betting market putting this line at 16.5 at many other shops, so BetMGM offers the best line in the market for this prop. It is directionally correct, and is in line with all the reasons previously handicapped throughout this article. I try to keep my writing very true to my personal betting, and this was a bet placed for me.
