Nowhere in the College Football Playoff selection committee’s protocol does it refer to anything about a team’s history and tradition — or lack thereof. It’s not supposed to care that Vanderbilt hasn’t been 7-1 in 84 years.
The 12 people in that room will absolutely care, though, that Vanderbilt is 7-1 now — with back-to-back wins against ranked SEC opponents LSU and Missouri. Vanderbilt — the story of the season — is on the brink of making its first appearance in any CFP ranking during the playoff era.
And not only will the Commodores crack the committee’s top 25, but they also will have a legitimate chance to make their debut in the coveted top 12 when the first ranking is released Nov. 4. If the playoff were today, they would already be in. A lot can — and will — change with one Saturday remaining before the first ranking is revealed, but here is a snapshot of what it might look like through Week 9 results.
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Projecting the top 12
Why they could be here: The Buckeyes remain safe at the top after a bye week, as Indiana’s home win against a UCLA team that is now 3-5 wouldn’t be enough to sway the committee into flipping them. Ohio State entered Week 9 ranked No. 1 in the country in total efficiency, No. 1 in defensive efficiency and No. 6 in offensive efficiency. The Buckeyes also have three Big Ten road wins to Indiana’s two and are No. 1 in ESPN’s Game Control metric with a slight edge over No. 2 Indiana. Ohio State’s win at Washington would also be strongly valued by the committee, as the Huskies improved to 6-2 on Saturday.
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Why they could be lower: Indiana keeps making statements — even against unranked teams such as UCLA. The Hoosiers’ win at Oregon is better than Ohio State’s win at Texas, even though the Longhorns managed an epic overtime comeback on Saturday at Mississippi State. The selection committee also compares common opponents, and while both Ohio State and Indiana beat Illinois with ease, the Hoosiers did it in historic fashion, handing coach Bret Bielema the worst loss of his career.
Need to know: Ohio State’s spot at the top isn’t a guarantee as the season progresses. If Alabama runs the table and wins the SEC, the selection committee would at least consider the Tide for the No. 1 spot. Alabama entered Saturday with the No. 2 toughest schedule in the country — Ohio State was No. 33. The question would be if enough committee members could forgive the season-opening loss to Florida State, which has looked worse every week. So while this pecking order has been fairly stable with the Big Ten at the top, the possibility of shuffling remains — and that includes a promotion for the Hoosiers, too, if they finish as undefeated Big Ten champs.
Toughest remaining game: Nov. 29 at Michigan. The Buckeyes are trying to avoid a fifth straight loss to their rivals.
Why they could be here: The Hoosiers asserted themselves against a recharged UCLA team, leaving no doubt they were better in another lopsided win. Indiana still owns the best win in the country, Oct. 11 at Oregon, and the historic 63-10 win against Illinois is another separation point between the Hoosiers and other contenders. They don’t have a nonconference win, though, that stacks up against Ohio State’s season-opening win against Texas.
Why they could be higher: Indiana’s sheer domination of UCLA was yet another statement of the Hoosiers’ relentless consistency. They don’t play down to their opponents and have beaten everyone but Iowa by double digits. The 30-20 win at Oregon is better than Ohio State’s home win against the Longhorns on the overall résumé, and IU entered Saturday ranked No. 2 in the country in ESPN’s Strength of Record metric — just ahead of Ohio State.
Need to know: The Hoosiers have passed their most difficult tests of the season. Their task now is to avoid what would be a shocking November upset. None of their remaining opponents are ranked and only Maryland (4-3) is above .500. If the Hoosiers run the table and play for the Big Ten championship, they should be a CFP lock. Even if they lose the title game, they should be in contention for a top-four finish and first-round bye.
Toughest remaining game: If Indiana is a playoff team, it shouldn’t lose in November. Three of IU’s last four games are on the road, but Maryland has lost three straight, Penn State has lost four straight, and Purdue has lost six in a row. The Hoosiers’ last home game is Nov. 15 against a struggling Wisconsin team. Indiana has at least a 70% chance to win each remaining game.
American took a hit on Saturday with their loss to Memphis. Florida has already fired coach Billy Napier, and Florida State has lost four straight. Miami’s season-opening win against Notre Dame, though, is still one of the best nonconference wins in the country and continues to help separate the Canes from other contenders with a weaker schedule. It also helped Miami that Louisville beat Boston College and should be a one-loss CFP Top 25 team, softening the blow of that loss a little. And Miami is still performing well, ranking in the top 12 in both offensive and defensive efficiency.
Why they could be lower: Some selection committee members could argue that Vanderbilt has a better résumé than both Oregon and Miami as far as one-loss teams. Even before the Commodores earned their second win against a ranked opponent, they were No. 11, sandwiched between No. 10 Oregon and No. 12 Miami in ESPN’s Strength of Record metric.
Need to know: The Canes will leave their home state for the first time all season when they travel to SMU on Saturday.
Toughest remaining game: Nov. 29 at Pitt. The Panthers have won four straight games, including a stunning 53-34 win against NC State on Saturday.
Why they could be here: The 10-point home loss to Indiana is the only blemish, and the committee would consider that a decent loss. They would also still look somewhat favorable upon the double overtime win at Penn State, considering the Nittany Lions still had their head coach and it was an unforgiving environment and crowd. It certainly isn’t a statement win, but nobody in the room is going to penalize Oregon for it, either. The Ducks entered Week 9 ranked No. 10 in ESPN’s Strength of Record metric.
Why they could be lower: The Ducks came out flat against a struggling Wisconsin team, and don’t have a lot on their résumé to compare with other one-loss teams. Vanderbilt has two better wins, and undefeated BYU can argue better wins against Utah and Iowa State. The committee would point out an FCS win against Montana State, and Oklahoma State and Oregon State are a combined 2-14. Overall, Oregon entered Saturday with the No. 31 strength of schedule — just slightly ahead of No. 34 Vanderbilt.
Need to know: Oregon has more chances to impress the selection committee in November, with games against Iowa, USC and at Washington looming — all teams with winning records and potentially ranked in the CFP Top 25. The committee doesn’t project ahead, though, and Oregon has a bye week heading into the first ranking. Don’t be surprised if the Ducks are lower than some might expect the defending Big Ten champions to be when the first ranking is revealed on Nov. 4. Last year’s results don’t impact the committee’s decisions this year, but schedules do. Oregon has a bye before the first ranking is revealed, and not a lot on its résumé to impress the group. Eye test will play a role.
Toughest remaining game: Nov. 29 at Washington. The 6-2 Huskies have only lost to Ohio State and on the road against Michigan.
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First-round games
On campus, Dec. 19 and 20
No. 12 Memphis (American champ) at No. 5 Georgia
No. 11 Georgia Tech at No. 6 Ole Miss
No. 10 BYU (Big 12 champ) at No. 7 Miami (ACC champ)
No. 9 Vanderbilt at No. 8 Oregon
Quarterfinal games
At the Goodyear Cotton Bowl, Capital One Orange Bowl, Rose Bowl Presented by Prudential and Allstate Sugar Bowl on Dec. 31 and Jan. 1.
No. 12 Memphis/No. 5 Georgia winner vs. No. 4 Texas A&M
No. 11 Georgia Tech/No. 6 Ole Miss winner vs. No. 3 Alabama
No. 10 BYU/No. 7 Miami winner vs. No. 2 Indiana
No. 9 Vanderbilt/No. 8 Oregon winner vs. No. 1 Ohio State
