It was anticipated to be Vinícius Júnior’s season. In 2024, the star striker for Real Madrid had secured the LaLiga title, as well as the UEFA Champions League. The logical next step seemed to be the Ballon d’Or.
Nearly everyone believed so, a sentiment passionately voiced by former Manchester United player Rio Ferdinand, who exclaimed «Ballon d’Or!» into a microphone six times — count them — after Vini Jr. netted Madrid’s second goal in the Champions League final of 2024.
However, Vinícius did not clinch the 2024 Ballon d’Or. It was Rodri who took the honor. On October 28 of last year, Vinícius and Real Madrid learned that the Brazilian forward wouldn’t be ending a remarkable year by receiving the most esteemed individual accolade in football. Instead, he was set to finish as the runner-up to the more understated Manchester City and Spain midfielder.
Madrid’s response was to boycott the event, canceling plans for a significant delegation to attend the ceremony in Paris and cutting connections with the organizers France Football.
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In Madrid, finishing second is far from acceptable. Vini Jr.’s response was one of defiance as he boldly declared on social media: «I’ll do it 10 times if necessary. They aren’t prepared,» The message was unmistakable: If it’s not this year, then it will be next year. It’s only a matter of time.
However, 2025 hasn’t turned out to be Vinícius’ year, either. Real Madrid wrapped up last season without a significant trophy, suffering a record four Clásicos defeats to Barcelona. In the FIFA Club World Cup under new coach Xabi Alonso, Vinícius scored once in six matches, and this season, Alonso has shown uncertainty, benching Vinícius three times, including during Sunday’s LaLiga victory at Getafe.
Vinícius, aged 25, is still anticipated to begin Sunday’s upcoming Clásico against Barça (stream LIVE on ESPN+ in the U.S.), at the Santiago Bernabéu. But he will not enter the match as Madrid’s leading star anymore. That title now clearly belongs to Kylian Mbappé, who has elevated his performance, scoring in 10 of the team’s 11 matches this season.
The last year has unfolded dramatically, as the once-foregone conclusion of Vinícius’ Ballon d’Or triumph has transformed into fluctuating performances, a declining role in the Real Madrid squad, and even speculation regarding his long-term future with the club.
In the year leading up to his Ballon d’Or omission — from October 28, 2023, to October 27, 2024 — Vinícius crafted a compelling argument to be regarded as the best player in the world.
He netted 18 goals in 30 LaLiga matches during that timeframe, averaging 0.6 goals per game. The only individuals to record more LaLiga goals during that span were three center forwards, two performing at peak levels: Barcelona’s Robert Lewandowski (28), Alexander Sørloth (22, for Villarreal and Atlético Madrid) and Artem Dovbyk (19), at the time with Girona.
These players are primarily measured by their goal-scoring; however, Vinícius’ contributions transcend this. Within those 365 days, he supplied eight assists (a figure surpassed by six LaLiga players) and generated a solid 49 chances, ranking him 16th in the league. Perhaps his most remarkable skill, dribbling, saw him achieve a league-best 227 successful take-ons, outpacing Lamine Yamal (225), Nico Williams (201), and Savinho (194).
During this time, Vinícius also showcased a series of impressive performances in the Champions League. Only one player, Harry Kane, was able to exceed Vini Jr.’s 11 goal contributions (eight goals and three assists). In terms of wing play, no one could rival his 95 take-ons (Mbappé was next with 70).
On April 30, 2024, he struck twice in a 2-2 semifinal draw against Bayern Munich. A month later, he netted a decisive second goal in the final against Borussia Dortmund at Wembley. Shortly thereafter — merely six days prior to the Ballon d’Or ceremony — he delivered one of his most thrilling individual displays: netting a second-half hat trick in another victory against Dortmund, 5-2 at the Bernabéu. Madrid had trailed 0-2 with 30 minutes remaining until Vinícius single-handedly transformed the narrative in a manner few players could accomplish.
The following year — spanning October 28, 2024, to the present — has been less impressive. Vinícius’ goal tally has decreased, with 11 goals in 28 LaLiga matches, bringing his average down to 0.4 goals per game. During this stretch, 11 LaLiga players surpassed him in scoring, including Raphinha (15) and Athletic Club‘s Oihan Sancet (12), both of whom are not center forwards.
Vinícius has recorded another eight assists, matching his previous twelve-month total — only Yamal exceeds him, with 11 — but three of those came in the last month as his form has picked up. Vinícius endured a barren run of 15 league matches and nearly six long months, from November 24, 2024, to May 11, 2025, without assisting a single LaLiga teammate.
This decline can partly be attributed to Madrid’s overall underwhelming 2024-25 campaign, along with broader problems extending beyond one player. Nonetheless, Vinícius generated 59 chances for teammates this past year, an increase of 10 from the prior 12 months, with only six LaLiga players — Pedri, Álex Baena, Raphinha, Mbappé, Isco, and Luis Milla — creating more.
Yet, during that concerning stretch of 15 games without an assist, the team dropped points in six fixtures, many against teams that should have been more easily defeated: Rayo Vallecano, Espanyol, Atlético Madrid, Osasuna, Real Betis, and Valencia. Real Madrid concluded the season four points shy of champions Barcelona.
Meanwhile, in the Champions League, Vinícius rebounded from his Ballon d’Or misstep with four goals in three clashes against AC Milan, Atalanta, and RB Salzburg, culminating in a man-of-the-match performance in Madrid’s 3-2 playoff first leg victory at Manchester City on February 11, 2025.
However, following that — against Atlético Madrid in the round of 16, and Arsenal in the quarterfinals — his impact was limited, contributing just a goal against the Gunners at the Bernabéu. Only 10 players netted more Champions League goals and assists than Vinícius’ seven over the last year, with 17 players creating more chances than he did.
This year’s Ballon d’Or contenders primarily featured Yamal and Ousmane Dembélé, with Paris Saint-Germain‘s Champions League triumph securing Dembélé the trophy at the gala in Paris on September 22. Vinícius finished 16th in the voting,
After Vinícius’s close rapport with Carlo Ancelotti — now managing the national team in Brazil — Xabi Alonso’s arrival has brought a reassessment of his role at Real Madrid. Under Ancelotti, Vinícius was a guaranteed starter when fit.
However, Alonso omitted Vinícius from the starting eleven for Madrid’s match against Real Oviedo on August 24, and again against Marseille in the Champions League on September 16, which reportedly surprised those within the club.
In both matches, Alonso favored Vinícius’ fellow Brazilian Rodrygo, who has expressed to the coach his desire to be considered for the left-wing position. Even when Vinícius has been included in the starting lineup under Alonso, he often hasn’t completed matches.
In Alonso’s first twelve games in charge across all competitions, Vinícius was on the pitch for the full 90 minutes just once. Earlier this season, the player’s camp informed ESPN they were dissatisfied with Alonso’s management of Vinícius, though recent developments have seen improvements — as he has played 90 minutes in three of the last five matches — and Alonso continues to publicly back him.
«He had an outstanding impact,» Alonso remarked regarding Vinícius’ latest contribution as a substitute, during the game against Getafe on Sunday. «We discussed this earlier today, that [the players] could be equally crucial whether starting or coming off the bench. And that was evident. … It’s about everyone recognizing their importance in their roles.»
In the past month, Vinícius’ performance has seen an upswing. He shone during Madrid’s 4-1 victory at Levante on September 23, contributing both a goal and an assist. He netted twice in a challenging showdown this season, a 3-1 triumph against top-four hopefuls Villarreal on October 4. Additionally, against Getafe, he entered the pitch in the 55th minute and significantly altered the match, leading to the sending off of two opposing players — Allan Nyom and Álex Sancris — as they struggled to contain him.
1:26
Could Vinicius Jr really leave Real Madrid?
Gab Marcotti explores the chances of Vinicius Jr exiting Real Madrid and potential destinations.
Vinícius’ immediate future seems secure: after a rocky beginning, he is looking like an integral component of a Madrid squad aiming to outpace Barcelona for the title, while also seeking to improve upon last season’s quarterfinal exit in the Champions League.
However, clarity diminishes regarding the long-term perspective. Contract negotiations — Vinícius’ existing deal is set to run out in June 2027 — have reached an impasse, according to ESPN sources.
There was some progress made in May, where discussions about a potential new agreement worth a base of €20 million annually, along with an additional €10 million in bonuses, were held. Nevertheless, the club’s formal proposal did not incorporate those bonuses, sources suggested.
On that basis, Vinícius’ representatives felt there was no impetus to affirm a three-year extension, especially when the player already receives approximately €17 million annually after tax, including bonuses, preferring instead to monitor the season’s developments.
While some club sources report a different narrative, suggesting some discontent behind the scenes at the Bernabéu regarding how negotiations are unfolding. One insider indicated that Madrid had expected the renewal to progress smoothly until the player’s requirements shifted.
Madrid remains optimistic that Vinícius will eventually agree to terms, yet one individual mentioned that — barring significant changes — it wouldn’t be surprising if the player opted to let his contract run down, potentially departing on a free transfer in 2027.
Interest from the Saudi Pro League that surfaced last year hasn’t been pursued further in 2025, and Vinícius’ camp has downplayed that possibility since.
Historical precedents show that during contract stalemates at the Bernabéu, even the biggest names — think Cristiano Ronaldo or Sergio Ramos — often do not emerge victorious. However, there is no precedent of a star at Madrid, in their prime, opting to let their contract lapse.
«I feel content here, playing alongside the best players, with the best coach [Ancelotti], and the best president [Florentino Pérez], in a place where I am cherished,» Vinícius expressed last season.
«I can’t envision a better place than this.»
Is that sentiment still valid? The answer will hinge on Vinícius’ performance, his evolving rapport with Alonso, and how both player and club navigate his contract situation.
ESPN’s Gustavo Hofman and Rodrigo Faez contributed to this report
