The NFL season presents a vast array of betting prospects. As we reach the midpoint of the season, are we starting to gain more clarity on the direction of teams? Are there still some long shots that merit a small wager?
This analysis includes bets for each team as we venture into the latter half. Some recommendations focus on the broader picture, including Super Bowl futures, playoff chances, and win totals, while others concentrate on individual players and their chances for MVP and other awards.
Contributors Matt Bowen, Eric Karabell, Liz Loza, Pamela Maldonado, Eric Moody, Ben Solak, and Seth Walder share their insights.
All odds as of the time of publication, with props courtesy of ESPN BET.
Jump to: ARI | ATL | BAL | BUF | CAR | CHI
CIN | CLE | DAL | DEN | DET | GB | HOU
IND | JAX | KC | LAC | LAR | LV | MIA
MIN | NE | NO | NYG | NYJ | PHI | PIT
SEA | SF | TB | TEN | WAS
UNDER 6.5 wins (+110)
Solak: This appears to be a favorable sell-high point for a team fresh off a nationally aired victory. The Cardinals should improve with Jacoby Brissett at the helm, compared to Kyler Murray, but their upcoming schedule is daunting. According to FPI metrics, the Cardinals have had one of the easiest early-season schedules but now face one of the most challenging stretches ahead. While Brissett provides a boost, heās a backup for a reason; it’s uncertain how long this new QB surge can sustain.
OVER 7.5 wins (+105)
Solak: Atlanta feels desperate, falling three straight after their impressive win against the Bills that had them sitting at 3-2. Waiting for a better number post their upcoming Colts match might be wise, yet Indianapolis is vulnerable, and the Falcons possess a pass rush that could create challenges for Daniel Jones. I see potential for either a complete implosion or a strong rally under Raheem Morris. Iām leaning towards the value option here.
Lamar Jackson to win MVP (30-1)
Solak: The Ravens, at 3-5, currently sit at -170 to make the playoffs and are favored at -140 to win their division. In which scenarios could they chase those playoff aspirations without Jackson stepping into the MVP narrative? After a successful Week 9 victory where Jackson threw four touchdown passes, his injury absence may be quickly overridden if he leads the next six games to victory, with potential wins against the Vikings, Browns, Jets, Bengals, Steelers, and Bengals again, all of which Baltimore should enter as favorites.
UNDER 12.5 wins (-110)
Maldonado: Buffalo stands at 6-2, with a clean record, but the market prices the Bills as if they are still a 13-win team. They achieved 13 wins last year with a +24 turnover margin, the highest since 2000, a form of luck unlikely to repeat. The Bills have recorded only four interceptions this season after maintaining 16 last year. Injury impacts are beginning to manifest in defense, and the agenda ahead only becomes tougher, featuring five games with a rest disadvantage and encounters with formidable teams like the Dolphins, Bengals, Patriots, and Eagles.
Make the playoffs (+260)
Moody: The Panthers are emerging as unexpected contenders in the NFC. Their latest upset against the Packers has put them at 5-4, their best mid-season record since 2019. With Rico Dowdleās impressive 735 rushing yards and a sturdy defense limiting Green Bay to just 13 points, Dave Canalesā squad is forging a strong identity. If Bryce Young returns to full form and with a solid home record, Carolina may finally end its seven-year playoff absence.
Make the playoffs (+200)
Moody: Following a thrilling Week 9 victory over the Bengals, the Bears have positioned themselves as viable NFC playoff contenders at 5-3, just behind the Lions on tiebreakers for the last playoff spot. Their offense has come alive under first-year head coach Ben Johnson. Chicagoās upcoming games against playoff-bound teams like the Eagles, Packers, 49ers, and Lions will prove critical, potentially reshaping the NFC playoff landscape in their favor.
OVER 6.5 wins (+120)
Solak: The Bengals are the first squad since the 1960s to lose two consecutive games despite scoring 38 or more points. I view this as a prime buy-low opportunity. They should be able to remain competitive in most of their matchups thanks to their high-powered passing offense. While the next five games are against tough foes, they finish the season against the Dolphins, Browns, and Cardinals, providing a solid chance to achieve a handful of wins.
Carson Schwesinger to win Defensive Rookie of the Year (25-1)
Solak: Schwesinger, previously priced at +500 for this award before his Week 8 performance where he made an interception but suffered an ankle injury, retains a favorable outlook. Coach Kevin Stefanski does not anticipate Schwesinger heading to injured reserve. The competition for this accolade is rather weak, thus if Schwesinger returns quickly and maintains his high level of play, his odds are likely to rise sharply.
1:50
Stephen A. declares the Cowboys’ season over
Stephen A. Smith explains his sadness for the Cowboys after their loss to the Cardinals.
Dak Prescott to win Comeback Player of the Year (+115)
Karabell: Prescott is a slight favorite in a crowded field void of a clear frontrunner, including Christian McCaffrey, Aidan Hutchinson, and Daniel Jones. Should Prescott lead in passing yards and touchdowns, his bid for the award could gain substantial attention. While the Cowboys could miss the playoffs, Prescott’s performance might remain unblameable.
Nik Bonitto to win Defensive Player of the Year (+850)
Bowen: I support a bet on Bonitto. He possesses remarkable agility off the line and can maneuver effectively around offensive tackles, currently ranking fourth in the league with eight sacks, and has a top-tier pass-rush win rate. With a strong finish and notable plays, he has the potential to vie for the DPOY if his team reaches the postseason.
Check out the latest odds and lines for Week 10 on ESPN BET.
Win the NFC North (+135)
Bowen: Detroit, currently at 5-3 and in second place behind the 5-2-1 Packers, strikes me as the best team in the division. Averaging 28.8 points per game (third-highest in the league), their offense is both explosive and balanced, while their defense boasts key players across multiple levels. Their strategy of pressuring the quarterback and creating turnovers has proven effective. I feel that this is a smart risk with favorable odds.
OVER 10.5 wins (-120)
Maldonado: The Packersā efficiency on both offense and defense suggests a projection of at least an 11-6 record. Jordan Love ranks in the top 10 for QBR and yards per attempt, while the team stands among the top five in third-down efficiency and sack differential. The defensive combination of Rashan Gary and Micah Parsons elevates a unit conceding only 20.8 points per game. Their upcoming schedule favors their performance. Even with possible regression in close matches, Green Bay’s distribution shows realistic expectations exceeding market opinions. Therefore, I’m confident the -120 odds are worth taking.
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OVER 7.5 wins (-110)
Maldonado: Houston may not boast a striking 3-5 record, yet they appear poised to elevate their performance. Beginning their season against a tough schedule, they still maintain a positive point differential (+47). Houston’s defense is allowing the lowest points per game (15.1), with the fewest yards per game (267.4), ranking fourth in both interceptions and overall takeaways after nine weeks. C.J. Stroud continues to produce strong numbers despite poor line health. With an easier schedule ahead, it encompasses four more divisional clashes, and I see them achieving over 7.5 wins.
Win the Super Bowl (11-1)
Karabell: Although Week 9 saw disappointment, the MVP candidate Jonathan Taylor, potential Comeback Player of the Year Daniel Jones, and a stout defense remain strong contenders in the AFC. They may not rival the Chiefs or Bills, yet they are competitive, and the addition of elite cornerback Sauce Gardner brings substantial improvement. Why not the Colts for the title?
Make the playoffs (-140)
Karabell: The chances of the Jaguars making the playoffs seem slim, having been outscored in games and losing rookie standout Travis Hunter to injury while contending against the surprising Colts in a strong division. Nevertheless, this team manages to win and added wide receiver Jakobi Meyers before the trade deadline. They still have two games against the Titans and one with the Jets remaining. Thus, I believe they could shape up as a playoff-worthy team.
Patrick Mahomes to win MVP (+425)
Walder: Each MVP from the last seven seasons ended the year among the top four in QBR, and Mahomes is the only player I am confident will do just that this season without significant absences. Currently, he ranks fourth in QBR, while the favorite, Josh Allen, lags back in 11th. While Allen may drive the Bills to the top AFC seed, voters are likely to notice his declining efficiency this season. Many prospects seem promising, with Allen overvalued, none more so than Mahomes.
UNDER 4.5 wins (+120)
Loza: If Geno Smith had converted a pivotal 2-point attempt during extra time against Jacksonville in Week 9, the over might seem likely. However, considering the Raiders’ remaining schedule, achieving five wins appears daunting. They might sneak past Dallas or hold their own against Cleveland, but there are no clear opportunities. Furthermore, trading Jakobi Meyers for draft picks typically suggests a forward-looking strategy, rather than an immediate seize.
Justin Herbert to win MVP (20-1)
Solak: Thereās considerable hype surrounding the MVP race with Drake Maye’s ascension as the quarterback of a promising Patriots team, potentially claiming the top AFC playoff seed. Nonetheless, the unpredictable nature of the NFL remains. If unexpected events unfold in New England that affect the AFC playoff landscape, might the Chargers and Justin Herbert see a resurgence? Given Herbertās heavy dropback rates and the past struggles with pass protection, the return of Joe Alt could ease his load as the season progresses.
Puka Nacua to win Offensive Player of the Year (+750)
Walder: The production of receivers is far more reliant on their individual skill than that of running backs, thus while Jonathan Taylor excels, he is heavily influenced by team dynamics — the offensive line and play-calling can impact his success. In contrast, Nacua and Jaxon Smith-Njigba depend less on their respective teams and are achieving remarkable production that might be undervalued in the odds. Nacua showcases an incredible target share at 37% and astonishingly high receiving efficiency statistics. While Smith-Njigba may have more promise, I see value in both based on Taylorās inflated pricing.
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OVER 4.5 wins (-150)
Solak: FPI forecasts the Dolphins to average 5.5 wins by the conclusion of the season, a prediction Iām inclined to accept. With key players like Minkah Fitzpatrick, Jaylen Waddle, and De’von Achane still on board, Miami holds the capability to compete with average teams and dominate lesser opponents. Their remaining schedule seems manageable, featuring home games against teams like the Commanders, Saints, and Bengals, in addition to a rematch against the Jets in New York.
OVER 7.5 wins (-155)
Loza: J.J. McCarthyās recent return has revitalized the Vikings, helping them secure their fourth win of the season against a division rival. With him back, positioned within a competitive scheme, and supported by standout talent, the second-year QB seems poised to lead the team in a strong finish. Thanks to Brian Floresā skillful defense and upcoming favorable matchups against the Bears, Washington, Dallas, and the Giants, I expect the Vikings to secure at least four more victories as the regular season wraps up.
2:17
Eisen: Drake Maye has ‘dropped his Huggies’
Rich Eisen discusses how Drake Maye has transformed the Patriots in his second season in the NFL.
Drake Maye to win MVP (+400)
Moody: Mayeās candidacy for MVP has gained substantial traction. The second-year quarterback has led the Patriots to a remarkable 7-2 start, propelled by a streak of six consecutive victories. Achieving a feat matched only by Tom Brady, Peyton Manning, and Aaron Rodgers, Maye has recorded a remarkable eight games with at least 200 passing yards and a passer rating over 100. He stands in the top 10 for passing yards with 2,285 and touchdowns with 17, alongside 270 rushing yards and two rushing touchdowns. With Mike Vrabelās exceptional leadership in New England, itās an opportune moment to secure a bet on Maye for the MVP award.
UNDER 3.5 wins (+125)
Maldonado: The Saints, currently at 1-8, show that the on-field display reflects prior concerns. Transitioning to Tyler Shough as quarterback signals struggles ahead. Shough’s debut saw 32 completions on 56 attempts for 304 yards, averaging only 5.4 yards per throw and two interceptions. The Saints are averaging a mere 15 points per game and are among the worst five teams in yards per play, with only nine passing touchdowns through nine weeks. The ground game ranks low with a disappointing yards-per-carry average, lacking explosiveness. Upcoming road games against the Buccaneers, Falcons, and Dolphins do not inspire hope for improvement. The +125 odds on under 3.5 wins may not appeal, but remain realistic.
UNDER 4.5 wins (+140)
Karabell: QB Jaxson Dart remains a contender for top offensive rookie honors, leading the race at -130 odds, making it tough to profit from those odds. However, winning enough games will be challenging without vital offensive players. The Giants may find themselves favored in only a couple more contests, complicating achieving a five-win final in the coming months.
2:26
Are the Jets taking the right approach to rebuild?
Kimberley Martin defends the Jets’ approach in trading away Quinnen Williams and Sauce Gardner in a debate with Louis Riddick and Mike Greenberg.
UNDER 3.5 wins (-105)
Karabell: The Jets’ trade deadline decisions highlight their recognition that they are not playoff material, dealing away key defensive players. As for their quarterback situation? Does it genuinely matter? Unfortunately for Breece Hall, the Jets may not achieve more than one victory this season.
Win the Super Bowl (+800)
Karabell: The NFC lines shifted following the Packersā home loss to the Panthers, but the Eagles still boast the leagueās deepest roster, teeming with offensive talent and bolstered by defensive acquisitions at the trade deadline. They are poised to reclaim the NFC’s top seed and will be formidable opponents in January.
OVER 9.5 wins (+135)
Bowen: The Steelers need to go 5-4 during the second half of the season to exceed the win total, and I see favorable matchups remaining against the Bengals, Bears, Dolphins, and Browns. Although they will face tougher teams like the Chargers, Bills, Lions, and the Ravens twice, stealing one win from those matchups is entirely feasible. If the Steelers can replicate their Week 9 pass rush display against the Colts, they will certainly meet this betting threshold.
Christian McCaffrey to win Offensive Player of the Year (+600)
Bowen: As the premier dual-threat running back in the league, McCaffrey leads with an average of 135.8 scrimmage yards per game. Although he’ll need to boost his touchdown count to break into the OPOY conversation alongside Jonathan Taylor, heās taking on more than 25 touches per game, presenting plenty of chances within one of the most meticulously designed offensive schemes.
Win the NFC West (+145)
Solak: The Rams went into Week 8 significantly favored versus the Seahawks, who were at +200. While they now stand at +140, the odds have shifted considerably. Seattle and Los Angeles both hold 6-2 records and face similar strength-of-schedule challenges ahead. However, Seattle’s earlier injuries may still classify them as underrated in terms of team power rankings. Hold this ticket and consider arbitraging it during their confrontations in Weeks 11 and 16.
Emeka Egbuka to win Offensive Rookie of the Year (+175)
Karabell: The payoff isn’t substantial, but should Giants QB Jaxson Dart stumble or discontinue his rushing touchdowns, Egbuka becomes a serious contender. The Ohio State standout is on track for over 1,000 receiving yards and numerous touchdowns, all while the Buccaneers maintain their divisional dominance amid significant injuries to key players like Bucky Irving and Chris Godwin. Egbuka’s performance has been impressive.
UNDER 2.5 wins (+150)
Maldonado: Tennessee averages a meager 14.4 points and 244 yards per game, reflected by the worst third-down conversion rate in the league at 28.5%. With Cam Ward having faced 38 sacks and thrown just five touchdown passes, their defense allows 28.6 points per game and ranks poorly in terms of yards per play. No game in the second half indicates a favor toward them, given they will face six tough defenses, leaving them unlikely to secure two more wins.
OVER 5.5 wins (-135)
Karabell: Following QB Jayden Danielsā severe elbow injury, the ideal play might have been betting the Commanders under win totals. Now, with competent backup Marcus Mariota at the helm, alongside capable receivers and coaching, their chances improve against non-contender teams like the Dolphins, Giants, and Cowboys. The Week 18 clash with the Eagles could be negligible to the NFC East leaders, presenting further opportunity for Mariota to secure a win or perhaps three.
