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Dan Graziano
Week 17 is absolutely begging us to overreact to it.
The Steelers have already blown it! Derrick Henry is going to play five more seasons and break every record! The Texans’ defense is going to be unbeatable in the playoffs! Tyler Shough is a franchise QB! The Commanders need to fire everybody!
A lot happened before Sunday in Week 17. There was a lot resolved, too, and a spicy Week 18 is set up with two division titles and two 1-seeds on the line. We’re at that point in the season when we know whether our early-season reactions were overreactions. But the stuff we’re reacting to this week, as we try to figure out which overreactions might hold up and which ones are mirages, seems highly consequential. So, let’s get to it.
Jump to:
Henry, Ravens destined to run over Steelers?
NFC South winner guaranteed an early exit?
Patriots Dynasty 2.0 set for launch?
Lions’ Super Bowl window has already closed?
Is an NFL draft lottery on the horizon?
The Ravens are going to run all over the Steelers and into the playoffs
Baltimore and Henry put on a show Saturday night in a 41-24 victory at Lambeau Field. Henry ran for 216 yards and four touchdowns on a career-high 36 carries. In addition to rescuing the championship dreams of thousands of fantasy football managers, he also kept the Ravens’ season alive, as they prevailed in a must-win game in which they played without injured starting quarterback Lamar Jackson.
Baltimore still needed help Sunday, though, and it got it. The Browns beat the Steelers 13-6, which prevented Pittsburgh from clinching the AFC North and set up a Week 18 winner-take-all showdown between the Ravens and Steelers in Pittsburgh. The winner will be division champs. The loser will be out of the playoffs.
0:23
‘King Henry’ dominates Green Bay with 4th TD
Derrick Henry barrels in for his fourth rushing touchdown of the game, tying a career high as Baltimore beats Green Bay.
Verdict: NOT AN OVERREACTION
The Steelers have been tough against the run the past three weeks. They allowed 63 yards on 16 carries to the Dolphins in Week 15. They gave up 15 yards on 12 carries against the Lions in Week 16. And they allowed 78 yards on 25 carries to a Browns team that was playing without its best back in Quinshon Judkins. For the season, though, the Steelers rank 25th in the league in opponents’ rush EPA, 20th in opponents’ rushing success rate and 14th in yards allowed per rush. Moreover, while the Steelers won in Baltimore in Week 14, Henry had 94 yards on 25 carries and the Ravens had 217 on 40 as a team.
Rookie defensive tackle Derrick Harmon didn’t play for Pittsburgh in the Week 14 game but has played the past two weeks, which is likely a big reason for the turnaround. But just because the Steelers have recently toughened up against the run doesn’t mean they’ll have answers for Henry.
Could Pittsburgh win? Of course. It just beat the Ravens three weeks ago, and Baltimore has been far from reliable this season. But if Saturday unlocked something with Henry, it could be a rough day for the Steelers’ defense, and the offense could struggle again with receiver DK Metcalf still suspended. The Steelers had a shot to beat Cleveland on Sunday and make the Week 18 game against Baltimore irrelevant. They missed, and Henry could make them regret it.
The NFC South champion will lose its first-round home playoff game
Both teams in contention for the NFC South lost Sunday. The first-place Panthers fell 27-10 at home to the Seahawks, while the second-place Buccaneers lost 20-17 to the Dolphins in Miami. Carolina’s loss dropped the Panthers to 8-8. Tampa Bay’s loss was its fourth in a row and seventh in its past eight games, and it dropped the Bucs to 7-9.
That means that if the Buccaneers beat the Panthers at home next week, they will win the NFC South with a losing record. They’d still get to host a playoff game, as would a 9-8 Panthers team if it is able to prevail next week. Not exactly an inspirational sprint to the finish.
Beast Quake» game.
The NFC South champion is going to host a first-round game against some NFC West team, either the Seahawks (who already have 13 wins), 49ers or Rams (each of whom had 11 wins before playing their Week 17 games). Tough matchup, obviously, as Sunday’s Seahawks-Panthers result showed. But the Panthers did recently beat the Rams in Charlotte and have a Week 9 victory over the Packers at Lambeau Field on their résumé, so they can beat the other playoff teams.
The Bucs have won only one game since Halloween, but prior to this slide they beat Houston in September, along with Seattle and San Francisco in October. There are still a lot of good players on the Bucs. Would it be
The Patriots are about to start a new dynasty around Drake Maye and Mike Vrabel
New England absolutely destroyed the Jets 42-10 on Sunday. Maye was 19-for-21 for 256 yards and five touchdown passes and barely had to play in the second half. If the Patriots beat the Dolphins next week and the Chargers beat the Broncos, the Patriots not only will have halted the Bills’ streak of five straight division titles, they’ll be the No. 1 seed in the AFC playoffs and earn a first-round bye.
Vrabel’s first season as New England’s head coach and Maye’s second as the Patriots’ starting quarterback has been a brilliant success. Those guys are up for Coach of the Year and MVP awards, respectively, and New England has a chance to return its franchise to glory with a Super Bowl run.
1:41
Drake Maye shines in Patriots blowout of the Jets
Drake Maye throws five touchdowns in the Patriots’ 42-10 win over the Jets.
Verdict: OVERREACTION
Full respect to the Patriots for what they’ve been able to do this season. And it wouldn’t be any surprise to see them make noise in the playoffs, especially if they get that No. 1 seed. Maye looks like the real deal, and Vrabel obviously is. They’re likely here to stay as real AFC East contenders. But we know from the past half-decade that the Bills’ Josh Allen and Sean McDermott can win division titles, too.
I know New England fans don’t want to hear this, but the Patriots have benefited from one of the league’s easier schedules. Next season, they’ll face a first- or second-place schedule that will test them more. Of course, by next season, they also should have augmented their roster after another offseason of aggressively acquiring players, so maybe they’ll be set up. Regardless, Buffalo is not going away as long as it has Allen, and this space doesn’t throw around words like «dynasty» after one good season. Even if it’s a great one.
The Lions’ Super Bowl window is closed
Two seasons ago, the Lions went 12-5 and held a 17-point lead on the 49ers at halftime of the NFC Championship Game in Santa Clara, California. They lost that game, and Detroit coach Dan Campbell made a comment after about how teams can never be sure they’ll get that far again.
Last season, the Lions went 15-2 and were the No. 1 seed in the NFC playoffs but lost to the Commanders in the divisional round. On Thursday, the Lions lost 23-10 to the Vikings to drop to 8-8 for the season. The loss eliminated Detroit from playoff contention and raised questions about whether it is a team headed in the wrong direction.
1:08
RC: Goff’s performance unacceptable vs. Vikings
Ryan Clark explains why Jared Goff’s play in a must-win game vs. the Vikings was unacceptable and why he wouldn’t compare the QB to Sam Darnold.
Verdict: OVERREACTION
There might be some questions worth asking about quarterback Jared Goff’s performance late in this season and whether the Lions have gone as far as they could with him. The Rams asked themselves those questions five years ago, traded Goff and a bunch of picks for Matthew Stafford and won the Super Bowl right away.
There also might be some questions worth asking about how badly the offense missed former coordinator Ben Johnson, who left after last season and just won the NFC North in his first year as coach of the Bears. But Campbell and GM Brad Holmes have shown an exceptional ability to put together a top-end roster and develop a top-end coaching staff. I’m not going to let one down season convince me the Lions are done.
There will be an NFL draft lottery within five years
The Giants and the Raiders met Sunday in a «battle» of 2-13 teams with major implications for the top pick in the 2026 draft. The Raiders’ approach to this game raised a lot of eyebrows around the league and brought to the surface an old debate about tanking and teams not trying their hardest to win late-season games if losing can improve their draft position.
Las Vegas placed three starters — edge rusher Maxx Crosby, tight end Brock Bowers and safety Jeremy Chinn — on injured reserve last week, although all three of them played and finished their Week 16 game without restrictions. Crosby was said to be infuriated by the decision and left the team’s facility after getting the news. There were some in the Giants’ building, according to sources, who thought what the Raiders were doing smelled funny. New York added several players to its injury report Friday and Saturday and didn’t show up in Vegas at full strength, either.
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Verdict: NOT AN OVERREACTION
The Raiders can say all they want about how Crosby might need knee surgery after the season. Every year, dozens of NFL players finish out their seasons, then have offseason surgery. Pretty much every player is banged up at this point of the season, and if a team wants to tell you the guy has an injury that keeps him from being able to play, it’s pretty tough to prove it wrong. But again, the way the Raiders have handled the past week has a lot of people around the league talking.
The Raiders were absolutely atrocious in Sunday’s 34-10 loss. They did not look like a team trying its hardest to win. The NFL absolutely does not want there to be a perception about its teams throwing in the towel on games that count in the standings. So if other teams raise enough of a stink about what the Raiders are doing, it’s entirely possible that anti-tanking measures will come up for discussion at the offseason owners’ meetings.
