In the jet wash of widespread sports betting has come the rise of prediction markets, where folks can wager on a wide variety of real-world events.
On Wednesday, the Kalshi prediction market made major waves by commencing the process of expanding the offerings to the transfer portal in college sports.
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Ingame.com reported that Kalshi notified the Commodity Futures Trading Commission of its plan to offer prediction contracts on the transfer portal.
The backlash has been loud and predictable. Making bets on the decisions of individual athletes creates a significant risk of the misuse of inside information, with folks who know what an athlete plans to do rigging the system. It also opens another avenue of harassment and scrutiny of athletes, either before or after they make their decisions.
Ā«The NCAA vehemently opposes college sports prediction markets,Ā» NCAA president Charlie Baker said in a statement issued to David Purdum of ESPN.com. Ā«It is already bad enough that student-athletes face harassment and abuse for lost bets on game performance, and now Kalshi wants to offer bets on their transfer decisions and status. This is absolutely unacceptable and would place even greater pressure on student-athletes while threatening competition integrity and recruiting processes. . . . Their decisions and future should not be gambled with, especially in an unregulated marketplace that does not follow any rules of legitimate sports betting operators.Ā»
Kalshi seemed to back off, in a statement issued to Purdum after the shit hit the fan. (Did Kalshi offer a prediction contract on that happening?)
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Ā«We certify markets all the time that we do not end up listing; despite our competitors having these markets live, we have no immediate plans to list these contracts,Ā» Kalshi said.
That’s hardly a commitment to not doing it. Hopefully, the voices against it will be loud enough to keep Pandora’s box from swinging open.
Last week, the NFL expressed concern to Congress regarding the expansion of prediction markets to sports. And if companies like Kalshi will be offering prediction contracts on the transfer portal, what’s stopping them from doing the same thing with NFL free agency?
