Week 15 of the 2025 NFL season is underway after the Falcons defeated the Buccaneers in a come-from-behind win Thursday night. Now, let’s look at what you need to know for the remaining games on the slate. We have last-minute nuggets to know for games on Sunday and Monday, and our NFL analysts have you covered at the eleventh hour.
First, analytics writer Seth Walder breaks down three stat trends that could be pivotal this weekend. Then, fantasy writer Eric Moody highlights five players who are rostered in less than 50% of ESPN leagues as of Saturday and could be started in a jam. That’s followed by NFL analyst Ben Solak’s three potential surprises, NFL analyst Matt Bowen’s key matchup to watch and sports betting analyst Pamela Maldonado’s favorite bet for Week 15. We also asked our NFL Nation reporters to answer questions about interesting QB situations around the league.
Can the Ravens’ tight ends deliver against the Bengals? Which two Commanders players have fantasy upside? Could the Bears get upset by the Browns? How can Drake Maye pick apart the Bills? Which bet stands out in Colts-Seahawks? And how is this slump for Jalen Hurts different from his previous ones? We dig into all of it.
Jump to:
Stat trends | Fantasy sleepers
Potential surprises | Key matchup
Bet of the week | QB questions
Walder: Three key stat trends that could determine Week 15 winners
Could crossing routes be the key for the Chargers to find success against the Chiefs?
Kansas City’s pass defense has been solid in 2025, ranking 14th in success rate allowed (44%) and EPA allowed per play (0.15) on dropbacks. But crossing routes against them cause those numbers to skyrocket to 63% (fourth worst) and 0.51 (second worst), respectively. Chiefs opponents are averaging 2.9 receiving yards per play on crossing routes, second most.
So, who is most likely to benefit from this? Wide receiver Ladd McConkey, who leads the Chargers by running crossing routes 16% of the time. McConkey also caught six passes for 74 yards against the Chiefs in Week 1.
against the Seahawks?
Early in the season, the Colts had a ton of success by generating an effective rushing game and then using play-action off it. But that plan likely will not work Sunday, which would have been true even if quarterback Daniel Jones were not injured.
For starters, Seattle’s defense is ferocious against the run, ranking first in EPA allowed per designed run (minus-0.14), second in success rate allowed (34%), third in run stop win rate (32.8%) and first in yards after contact per carry (1.6). And somehow, the Seahawks defense is better in terms of EPA allowed per play when facing play-action (minus-0.18, best in the league) compared with not (minus-0.02, 11th best). All of this makes the Seahawks a particularly brutal matchup for Indianapolis.
Could the Ravens’ tight ends deliver huge games against the Bengals?
The Ravens rely on their tight ends in the passing game more than most teams, with 31% of targets going to that group. So that makes the Bengals a perfect matchup, as no defense allows a higher percentage of targets to opposing tight ends (28%). And the last time these two teams faced off, the tight ends — Mark Andrews, Isaiah Likely and Charlie Kolar — combined for 159 receiving yards. The Ravens lost that initial matchup, but their situation is much more desperate as they’re fighting for a postseason berth. A big game from Andrews and Likely would go a long way toward victory.
Moody: Five fantasy sleepers you need to pick up — and can start this week
Trevor Lawrence, QB, Jacksonville Jaguars (43.6% rostered)
Lawrence is trending up at the perfect time for fantasy managers and looks more comfortable in first-year coach Liam Coen’s offense. In three consecutive games, Lawrence has scored at least 17 fantasy points. The Jets’ defense has allowed the 10th-most fantasy points per game to quarterbacks, and it has also given up 20 passing touchdowns without recording an interception this season.
Jayden Higgins, WR, Houston Texans (38.9% rostered)
Higgins finished with just 6.4 fantasy points in Week 14 against the Chiefs, his lowest total since Week 9 against the Broncos (1.4 points). However, he still finished second on the team in targets, receptions and receiving yards. Higgins has seen at least five targets in five consecutive games and now faces a Cardinals defense that has allowed 35.4 fantasy points per game to wide receivers over its past five contests.
1:26
Vince Wilfork pretty excited for Pats, Texans this season
Vince Wilfork joins Pat McAfee and assesses the performances of his former teams, the Patriots and Texans, this season.
Chris Rodriguez Jr., RB, Washington Commanders (31% rostered)
Rodriguez continues to lead a crowded Commanders backfield. He has logged at least 10 rushing attempts and averaged 57.3 rushing yards in the past three games. He should find success against a Giants defense that ranks 29th in run stop win rate and allows the second-most fantasy points per game to running backs.
Marcus Mariota, QB, Washington Commanders (10.6% rostered)
Quarterback Jayden Daniels reinjured his previously dislocated left elbow against the Vikings in Week 14 and won’t play against the Giants. Mariota has averaged 18.3 fantasy points per game in six starts this season. With Terry McLaurin and Deebo Samuel as his top receivers and some solid rushing ability, Mariota has the tools to deliver solid production. The Giants’ defense has allowed the fourth-most fantasy points per game to quarterbacks.
Isaiah Likely, TE, Baltimore Ravens (8.1% rostered)
The Bengals’ defense has allowed the most receptions, receiving yards, receiving touchdowns and fantasy points per game to tight ends. Even though Likely is splitting snaps and targets with Mark Andrews, he has seen at least six targets and 12.5 fantasy points in consecutive games — and one of those performances came against Cincinnati in Week 13. Likely is firmly on the streaming radar Sunday.
Solak: Don’t be surprised if …
The Eagles’ offense looks totally fixed
The outcome in Los Angeles was terrible, but Philly tried a lot of good things — things Eagles fans have been asking for all season. Wide receiver A.J. Brown saw more targets over the middle of the field, while running back Saquon Barkley had a couple of explosive runs. With a much softer defensive opponent in the Raiders, I could see a huge, mouthwash day for the Eagles’ beleaguered unit.
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Packers wide receiver Christian Watson leads the day in receiving yards
It took a few weeks for Watson to get back up to speed from injury, but he put up 169 yards and three touchdowns in his past two outings combined. He has been dramatically more effective against man coverage (3.7 yards per route run) than zone (1.7) this season. Though that might not help on his snaps opposite Broncos cornerback Pat Surtain II this Sunday, Green Bay also hides him in the slot. With two big catches, Watson could easily clear 100 receiving yards.
The Browns beat the Bears
The Browns’ run defense leads the league in success rate, and it has the capacity to force the Bears into a game script they haven’t seen in months: one with a lot of third-and-longs. With bitter cold weather in Chicago and wide receiver Rome Odunze limited in practice this week, the Bears’ passing attack won’t be able to sustain a big day if the running game disappears. This could be a 10-6 type of win for the Browns.
Bowen: Key matchup to watch
Patriots quarterback Drake Maye vs. the Bills’ zone coverages
In New England’s Week 5 win over the Bills, Maye was dialed in against zone coverage, completing 15 of 18 passes for 174 yards. The Patriots created open voids for tight end Hunter Henry in the middle of the field against Cover 2, and Maye worked the underneath levels in the quick game with receivers finding open turf.
The Bills are a foundational zone defense, so expect Patriots offensive coordinator Josh McDaniels to set up Maye with leveled reads that put defenders in conflict. This could be another big performance for the second-year quarterback.
2:20
Why Stefon Diggs is key to Stephen A. not favoring Bills over Pats
Stephen A. Smith looks at Stefon Diggs’ role in his decision to not take the Bills over the Patriots this weekend.
Maldonado: My favorite bet for Week 15
UNDER 14.5 points for the Indianapolis Colts team total (-125)
The Colts’ offense is walking into Seattle with an injured rookie (Riley Leonard) or a 44-year-old who hasn’t taken a NFL snap since 2020 (Philip Rivers). Plus, the Colts are facing the best EPA pass defense over the past two months, per NFL Next Gen Stats. Seattle has been hot, giving up a total of only nine points in the past two games, including zero touchdowns against the Falcons in Week 14.
Seeing Rivers would bring back a lot of nostalgia, but reaching 15 points would mean the script needs to break. And if you want more value, under 13.5 points (-105) is also justified.
NFL Nation: QB questions
How is this slump for Jalen Hurts different from ones he has had in the past?
The sheer number of turnovers stands out. He had a career-high five giveaways Monday against the Chargers and now has seven turnovers over his past two games. The winning formula for the Eagles this season has been for the offense to protect the ball and support a defense capable of taking over games. It’s no surprise they’ve dropped three straight considering they have nine giveaways over that span.
The other difference relates to perception. Hurts is a reigning Super Bowl champ and that comes with heightened expectations. But in reality, he hasn’t shown the ability to carry a team with his arm for extended stretches over most of his career. —Tim McManus, Eagles reporter
Game picks from our NFL experts »
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What did Shedeur Sanders show to be named starter for the rest of the season?
With practice reps as QB1, Sanders has shown consistent growth each week. He has brought big plays to Cleveland’s offense, too. But it’s strides in his footwork and pocket presence that have really drawn praise from coaches. Sanders still has a propensity to hold on to the ball too long — his 3.39-second time to throw would rank the highest of all quarterbacks — but he has been avoiding sacks and throwing the ball away more. — Daniel Oyefusi, Browns reporter
What are you hearing on how Bryce Young can keep the Panthers’ momentum going in the stretch run?
From coach Dave Canales to multiple sources around the league, Young needs to show consistency over these final four games that he hasn’t shown all season for the Panthers to be a playoff factor. For every game like he had before the bye — career-best 147.1 Total QBR in an upset win against the Rams — he has had duds like losses to the Saints (14.5 QBR) and the 49ers (13.9). — David Newton, Panthers reporter
