Men’s Power Rankings: Is Illinois a Final Four contender?

Through the first half of last season, Illinois looked like a legitimate Final Four contender. The Fighting Illini started 12-3, with wins over Wisconsin, Missouri, Oregon and Arkansas. But they would go 5-8 in their next 13 games, proving to be something of a paper tiger. In games against Quad 4 opponents, they had the best defensive rating in the country at CBB Analytics. In Quad 1 games, they were 82nd.

This season feels different, and it’s why Illinois is knocking on the door of the top five of this week’s Power Rankings.

The Illini’s 88-82 win at Purdue on Saturday gave them some separation at the top of KenPom’s offensive ratings — in fact, they now have the highest offensive rating in the history of KenPom (since the 1996-97 season). They’ve won nine games in a row dating back to mid-December, and their only three losses this season have come by 3 points to Nebraska, 4 to Alabama and 4 to UConn at Madison Square Garden.

Brad Underwood’s group can beat teams in different ways now. The Illini still have plenty of perimeter shooters, but they’re also the biggest team in the country by average height, and they’re one of the elite offensive rebounding teams in the country. Defensively, they protect the rim and they don’t foul.

The schedule gets more difficult in the next few weeks, and Illinois is without Kylan Boswell for several more games, but there appears to be more staying power for the Illini than a year ago.

Previous ranking: 1

Outside of about 65 seconds’ worth of brain lapses down the stretch, Arizona was completely untouchable in its impressive Monday night road win at BYU. The Wildcats set the tone at both ends of the floor from the opening tip with their physicality and toughness while the backcourt of Jaden Bradley and Brayden Burries combined for 55 points, 7 assists and 5 steals.

The individual defensive ability of Arizona’s perimeter group — Bradley, Burries and Ivan Kharchenkov — caused nightmares for perhaps the most offensively talented perimeter trio in the country. Richie Saunders was efficient, too, though Robert Wright III and AJ Dybantsa combined to shoot 9-for-40 from the field and 2-for-13 from 3.

Next seven days: at Arizona State (Jan. 31)

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Previous ranking: 2

The Huskies continue to play with fire. They’ve won just one of their past six games by double digits, needed overtime to close out two of those five single-digit victories, and won the other three by an average of 4.3 points.

The defense has continued to be the best in the Big East, but UConn is now 40th in KenPom’s offensive rating and just fourth in the Big East in points per possession in league play. The Huskies are shooting just 50% inside the arc in their past six games and are turning it over at a high rate. It’s also worth noting they’ve been absolutely obliterated on the defensive glass over that stretch, ranking No. 332 nationally in defensive rebounding rate at BartTorvik.

Next seven days: at Creighton (Jan. 31), vs. Xavier (Feb. 3)

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Previous ranking: 3

During a 10-game stretch between Nov. 19 and Jan. 2, Michigan went 10-0, with all 10 wins coming by an average of 34.5 points. Since then, the Wolverines are 6-1, with their victories coming by an average of 8.5 points. What’s changed? They’ve been forced to become more of a half-court team.

During their early-season 10-game winning streak, they were playing with the No. 1 pace in the country. They were also scoring 17.5 fast-break points per game, sixth in the nation at CBB Analytics. Since then, they are playing at the 159th fastest pace and averaging 10.3 fast-break points, 161st in the country.

Next seven days: at Michigan State (Jan. 30)

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Previous ranking: 4

Duke’s defensive performance against Louisville on Monday was sensational, particularly in the second half. The Cardinals had three separate field goal droughts of at least five minutes, and after Ryan Conwell’s 3-pointer to put Louisville ahead with 4:30 remaining in the first half, Duke allowed just seven made field goals the rest of the game.

The Blue Devils held Mikel Brown Jr. to 1-for-13 shooting from the field, and Louisville as a team was 5-for-20 inside the arc. Duke has now held three of its last four opponents to fewer than 0.87 points per possession.

Next seven days: at Virginia Tech (Jan. 31), vs. Boston College (Feb. 3)

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Previous ranking: 5

Nebraska suffered its first loss of the season Tuesday, falling by three points at Michigan after leading the Wolverines by double digits. Still, it was hard not to come away incredibly impressed with the Cornhuskers. They were on the road in Ann Arbor and were without two of their top three scorers — Rienk Mast had a stomach flu and Braden Frager was out with a sprained ankle — yet they went toe-to-toe with one of the elite teams in college basketball. There’s a reason they rose from No. 12 to 10 at KenPom and from No. 13 to 9 at BartTorvik following the game.

Next seven days: vs. Illinois (Feb. 1)

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Keaton Wagler did last weekend in Illinois’ road win at Purdue. The freshman guard finished with 46 points and 4 assists. He was 13-for-17 from the field, 9-for-11 from 3 and 11-for-13 from the free throw line. Over his past 12 games, Wagler has averaged 20.1 points, 4.8 rebounds and 5.3 assists while shooting 50% from the field and 47% from 3. Illinois has won nine in a row and looks like a legitimate Final Four contender.

Next seven days: vs. Washington (Jan. 29), at Nebraska (Feb. 1), vs. Northwestern (Feb. 4)

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Previous ranking: 8

Michigan State won its past two games in very different ways: The Spartans throttled Maryland at home by 43 points last Saturday, but needed overtime to escape Rutgers on the road Tuesday. The common thread in both contests, however, was that Jeremy Fears Jr. was at the heart of everything. Against the Terrapins, Fears posted 17 points and 17 assists; against the Scarlet Knights, he went for 29 points and 9 assists, shooting 16-for-17 from the free throw line and making a litany of clutch plays down the stretch.

Fears is averaging 16.8 points and 8.0 assists in Big Ten games while turning it over just 2.4 times per game. He’s playing like a legitimate All-American.

Next seven days: vs. Michigan (Jan. 30), at Minnesota (Feb. 4)

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Previous ranking: 9

Milan Momcilovic’s shooting is simply outrageous, especially when factoring in his 6-foot-8 size. After Saturday’s 5-for-9 effort from 3 against Oklahoma State, he’s 54.1% on 3-pointers for the season — and it’s somehow a tick better in Big 12 play at 54.5%. He’s been arguably the best shooter in the country, and he’s doing it at significant volume, ranking second nationally in 3-pointers made per game. In Momcilovic’s last three games, he’s averaging 27.7 points with 17 total made 3s.

Next seven days: vs. Colorado (Jan. 29), at Kansas State (Feb. 1)

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Previous ranking: 6

Gonzaga has been without Braden Huff for the past four games and Graham Ike for the past three, and while Ike isn’t expected to be out long term, it’s still interesting to dive into Mark Few’s rotation changes with his two star bigs sidelined. Ismaila Diagne has started all three games that Ike has missed, while Jalen Warley replaced Huff in the starting lineup four games ago. From a production standpoint, freshman Davis Fogle has seen the biggest boost, however. The top-50 recruit barely had a role for the first two-and-a-half months of the season, but he’s averaged 27 minutes in three games, putting up 15.0 points and 6.0 rebounds.

Next seven days: vs. Saint Mary’s (Jan. 31), at Portland (Feb. 4)

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Previous ranking: 12

Tech has now won nine of the past 10 games, with its lone loss coming by four points on the road at Houston. The Red Raiders got their revenge last weekend, however, with their own four-point victory over the Cougars at home. They’re producing some of the best offense in college basketball of late, becoming just the third team to score 90 points in regulation against Houston since Kelvin Sampson took over in 2014. They also scored 92 the game prior, against Baylor.

While Christian Anderson and JT Toppin are the stars, the supporting cast is stepping up more consistently lately. This month, it’s been Donovan Atwell, who is averaging 14.4 points and shooting 46.6% from 3 over his last eight games.

Next seven days: at UCF (Jan. 31), vs. Kansas (Feb. 2)

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Previous ranking: 7

As mentioned above, Houston’s defense completely fell apart against Texas Tech this past Saturday — and the Cougars have now given up 70 points in three straight games for the first since November 2020.

The story out of Houston these days, though, is all about Kingston Flemings. The freshman guard had 42 points and 6 assists in the Tech loss, tying the program record for most points against a ranked opponent. Per ESPN Research, Flemings was also the first player to score 40 points for a Kelvin Sampson-coached team since 1989. Flemings then went out on Wednesday and had 25 points and 5 assists.

Next seven days: vs. Cincinnati (Jan. 31), vs. UCF (Feb. 4)

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Previous ranking: 19

Vanderbilt’s three-game losing streak seems to be squarely in the rearview mirror with the Commodores righting the ship with two thoroughly convincing wins: the Commodores beat Mississippi State on the road by 32 this past Saturday, then Kentucky at home by 25 on Tuesday. The defense was much improved in the two games, holding both opponents to below 50% from inside the arc (Kentucky shot 37.1% on 2s) and 25% or below from 3. They also forced a combined 32 turnovers, after they forced the same number in the three games prior. Tyler Tanner returned to form, averaging 21.5 points, 5.0 assists and 2.0 steals in the two games after struggling in losses to Arkansas and Texas.

Next seven days: at Ole Miss (Jan. 31)

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Previous ranking: 14

During this recent four-game winning streak, the Jayhawks are ranked fourth nationally at BartTorvik, with the fifth-best defense in the country. They’ve allowed their last four opponents to shoot just 37.6% from inside the arc and attempt just 51 free throws. Flory Bidunga continues to be a consistent inside option, averaging 16.3 points and 9.3 rebounds in that stretch, shooting nearly 79% from the field, while Melvin Council Jr. is coming off a 17-point, 7-rebound, 12-assist performance with Darryn Peterson sidelined.

Next seven days: vs. BYU (Jan. 31), at Texas Tech (Feb. 2)

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Previous ranking: 13

Coming off Monday’s loss to Arizona, BYU is now nearly three months into the season without a Quad 1A win. In fact, the Cougars are the only team in the top 15 of the NET without a Q1A win. Huge second-half comebacks came up just short against both UConn and Arizona, meaning their best wins thus far are against Villanova and Clemson. Fortunately, they will have plenty more opportunities, beginning this Saturday at Kansas, where most of the hype will center around a matchup between projected top-two NBA draft picks Darryn Peterson and AJ Dybantsa.

Next seven days: at Kansas (Jan. 31), at Oklahoma State (Feb. 4)

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Previous ranking: 10

Purdue’s losing streak reached three games at Indiana on Tuesday, three days after falling at home to Illinois. There are clear issues on the defensive end of the floor, where the Boilermakers allowed each of those three opponents to score at least 1.17 points per possession. But on the other end, the supporting cast is struggling.

In the first 18 games of the season, Fletcher Loyer was averaging 13.4 points and shooting 38.6% from 3. During the three-game losing streak, he’s averaging 6.3 points and shooting 26.7% from 3. Oscar Cluff was averaging 12.2 points and 8.2 rebounds in the first 18 games, shooting better than 76% from the field. In these last three, it’s 5.7 points, 4.7 rebounds and 57.1% from the field.

Next seven days: at Maryland (Feb. 1)

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Previous ranking: 17

Darius Acuff Jr. has received endless plaudits for his incredible play — he did have 21 points, 9 assists, 0 turnovers and the game-winning basket in Tuesday’s win at Oklahoma — but fellow freshman Meleek Thomas has provided a boost since being inserted into the starting lineup. After proving himself as one of the best bench players in the country for the first two-and-a-half months, John Calipari has given Thomas three straight starts. He has made the most of it, averaging 14.3 points, 3.7 rebounds, 3.0 assists and shooting 41.7% from 3.

Next seven days: vs. Kentucky (Jan. 31)

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Previous ranking: 15

We wrote about Rueben Chinyelu’s recent dominance last week, but he just went for 14 points and 11 rebounds against South Carolina on Wednesday, making all seven attempts from the field. It was his 12th double-double of the season, which leads the SEC and is the most by a Florida player since Al Horford in 2006-07, per ESPN Research.

Chinyelu is nearly doubling his scoring average from last season (6.0 to 11.9 PPG) and ranks in the top five nationally in rebounding (11.0 RPG), while playing a little more than 24 minutes per game. He’s averaging 15.8 points and 12.8 rebounds in his last six games, shooting 67.3% from the field.

Next seven days: vs. Alabama (Feb. 1)

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Previous ranking: 23

After the 1-3 stretch that included back-to-back losses at Stanford and California, the hope was that the Tar Heels would see some regression to the mean when it came to 3-point shooting defense. They had allowed an average of 14.0 3s over a five-game stretch, with SMU, Stanford and Cal all shooting better than 50% from beyond the arc. And they did bounce back, with wins over Notre Dame and Virginia, which combined to shoot 16-for-52 from 3 (30.8%). They also got a breakout performance from Alabama transfer Jarin Stevenson, who had his best game in a Carolina uniform against Virginia: 17 points, all in the second half.

Next seven days: at Georgia Tech (Jan. 31), vs. Syracuse (Feb. 2)

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Previous ranking: 16

Virginia narrowly avoided a two-game losing streak after blowing a 16-point lead against North Carolina. The Cavaliers bounced back from their surprising home loss to the Tar Heels with a double-overtime win at Notre Dame on Tuesday.

Thijs De Ridder had his highest-scoring outing of the season against the Fighting Irish, finishing with 32 points and 8 rebounds — but former Toledo transfer Sam Lewis was the star, making big play after big play down the stretch and in the extra periods. He finished with 21 points, 9 rebounds and 6 assists. In Virginia’s 17 wins this season, Lewis is averaging 11.3 points and shooting 41.6% from 3. In its three losses, he’s averaging 5.7 points and shooting 14.3% from 3.

Next seven days: at Boston College (Jan. 31), vs Pittsburgh (Feb. 3)

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Previous ranking: 18

With Charles Bediako’s preliminary injunction hearing delayed, it seems the former G Leaguer will be with the Crimson Tide for the foreseeable future. And Nate Oats is certainly using Bediako like he’s going to be a mainstay in the lineup. He played 25 minutes in his first game back, finishing with 13 points, 3 rebounds, 2 blocks and 2 steals in Saturday’s loss to Tennessee. Oats moved him into the starting lineup for Tuesday’s win over Missouri, and Bediako responded with 14 points and 6 boards. He’s shooting 9-for-11 through two games.

Next seven days: at Florida (Feb. 1), vs. Texas A&M (Feb. 4)

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Previous ranking: Unranked

Saint Louis needed a 3-pointer from Robbie Avila in the final seconds Tuesday to beat George Washington and run its winning streak up to 14 games. Avila finished with 22 points, 7 rebounds, 5 assists and 3 steals — but the recent play of Trey Green has provided a different dimension to the Billikens’ offense. The sophomore guard finished with 23 points and 6 made 3s in the win over GW. He has also averaged 17.3 points over his last three games, including shooting 15-for-27 from 3. He leads the Atlantic 10 in 3-point shooting, making better than 52% of his 3s in league play.

Next seven days: vs. Dayton (Jan. 30), at Davidson (Feb. 3)

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Previous ranking: Unranked

Ja’Kobi Gillespie playing arguably his best basketball of the season and Nate Ament’s emergence as a legitimate all-conference player happening at the same time has been welcome news for Rick Barnes, who has guided the Vols to back-to-back road wins at Alabama and Georgia. Gillespie has scored at least 20 points in three straight games, averaging 23.0 points and 6.0 assists during that stretch. And Ament has been much more assertive in recent weeks, showing the shotmaking ability that made him a top-five recruit coming out of high school. He’s averaging 21.0 points in his last five games, including 29 at Alabama last weekend.

Next seven days: vs. Auburn (Jan. 31), vs. Ole Miss (Feb. 3)

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Previous ranking: 20

St. John’s extended its winning streak to seven games with Wednesday’s victory over Butler, separated itself as the clear-cut second-best team in the Big East and a legitimate threat to UConn, which comes to town next Friday. The key to the Red Storm’s recent play has been Dillon Mitchell, who moved into the starting lineup following the Jan. 3 home loss to Providence; they haven’t lost since. He’s posted three double-doubles in his last four games, averaging 14.5 points, 10.3 rebounds, 3.3 assists and 2.5 steals over that span.

Next seven days: at DePaul (Feb. 3)

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Previous ranking: 22

After going just 4-4 in Mikel Brown Jr.’s absence, it looked like his return was going to be a panacea for everything that ailed Louisville. He had 20 points and 6 assists in his first game back from injury against Virginia Tech, making three 3-pointers en route to a 14-point win. Things were back to homeostasis for the Cardinals. That didn’t last long, however, as they had their worst game of the season Monday night against Duke, losing by 31 and seeing Brown go 1-for-13 from the field. This team is still obviously so much better with him on the floor, but it’s clear the problems are much deeper than just not having the star freshman healthy.

Next seven days: vs. SMU (Jan. 31), vs. Notre Dame (Feb. 4)

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Previous ranking: 25

The RedHawks’ past three games: an overtime comeback win over Buffalo at home, an overtime comeback win at Kent State, at double-digit comeback win over UMass at home. They have become incredible escape artists, and despite the last-minute drama are now one of just two unbeaten teams remaining in college basketball. Next week might feature their two most likely opportunities for a defeat the rest of the way, with road trips to Buffalo and Marshall, the latter as part of the Sun Belt-MAC Challenge.

Travis Steele will hope Luke Skaljac is healthy for those games, after missing Tuesday’s win over UMass with an illness. Prior to his one-game absence, Skaljac was averaging 12.8 points and 5.9 assists in eight straight games as a starter.

Next seven days: vs. Northern Illinois (Jan. 31), at Buffalo (Feb. 3)

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Dropped out: Clemson Tigers (No. 21), Georgia Bulldogs (No. 24)