It’s time for another edition of Friday Night lines at CBS Sports, where I’ll select two plays, aim for a home run, and then throw out a Future.
This week’s version might appear slightly biased, but that’s intentional, as it’s the birthday of a certain Cubs supporter who attended IU and authors this column. Let’s dive into the homer-centric selections!
Lines provided by DraftKings.
Of course, my fellow Hoosier is always going to be a favorite pick for me, but we’re also following the hot streak, as Schwarber launched four home runs with nine RBIs on Thursday night. He was slumping prior to that, but such things occur with Schwarber. He can go through phases where it seems like he’ll never hit again, and then suddenly, he breaks out and plays like a superstar.
The atmosphere on Friday night is perfect for more excitement. Citizens Bank Park in Philadelphia is the top home run venue for left-handers in the majors, and Schwarber is a left-handed batter. Braves pitcher Bryce Elder — a right-hander that Schwarber handles well — sports a 6.12 ERA with 20 homers surrendered in 117 ⅔ innings this season.
Throughout 65 home matches this season, Schwarber has batted .271 with a .658 slugging average and 27 home runs. He has 65 hits, 69 RBIs, and 54 runs, averaging 2.89 H+R+RBI per game. We only require a typical Schwarber performance, not an extraordinary four-homer game like he delivered last night.
Germán Márquez over 3.5 earned runs allowed (+115)
The Cubs are emerging from a disastrous series in San Francisco, where nearly everything went awry. However, things are set to improve in Denver. Germán Márquez takes the mound for the Rockies at Coors Field, where he holds a 5.31 ERA this season. Left-handers have hit him hard, with a .315/.386/.530 batting line this season, and the Cubs have several potent lefties like Kyle Tucker, Pete Crow-Armstrong, Michael Busch and Ian Happ (a switch hitter). Rookie Owen Caissie might also get some opportunities. Happ and Tucker, along with right-handed Dansby Swanson, have also dominated Márquez throughout his career.
The only worries here are whether Márquez can go long enough to yield the fourth earned run or if an error opens the door for multiple unearned runs. For those concerned about such scenarios, consider checking the team total (6.5), but I prefer the plus odds here, and I believe Márquez will be expected to pitch for five or six innings, which provides ample opportunity for the Cubs.
Home run play: Kyle Tucker +360
Tucker went 1 for 2 with a sharp single, a deep flyout, and a walk against Márquez at Wrigley Field earlier this season. He’s 3 for 7 with a triple in his career against the right-hander.
The Cubs’ right fielder recently endured a challenging stretch, but over the past week, he’s found his rhythm. In his last six games, Tucker is hitting 9 for 22 (.409) with two doubles and three home runs. He’s positioned well in Coors Field against a pitcher who has been severely impacted by lefties all season.
Futures play: Cade Horton wins NL Rookie of the Year +125
Horton is set to pitch at Coors Field on Friday, so if there are concerns regarding a rough performance, perhaps delay this bet and allow the odds to shift favorably afterward.
Horton currently boasts an 8-4 record with a 2.88 ERA (133 ERA+), 1.16 WHIP, and 77 strikeouts over 93 ⅔ innings. While those numbers aren’t staggering, the NL Rookie of the Year competition isn’t particularly fierce. Horton is trending upward significantly. In fact, he’s already impressive. Over his last seven starts, he has recorded a 0.49 ERA and 0.78 WHIP with 34 strikeouts in 37 innings (a blister cut one outing short). He has not allowed more than one run in any start since July 9.
