We have passed the three-quarters mark of the 2025 MLB season, and several stars are on track for impressive final statistics.
Cal Raleigh is creating records with each bat swing — hitting his 49th homer on Sunday, surpassing Salvador Perez’s record for the most home runs in a season by a catcher. Aaron Judge, Kyle Schwarber, and Shohei Ohtani are also proving their status as top sluggers in the league. Aces Tarik Skubal and Paul Skenes are also delivering exceptional statistics.
We consulted our MLB analysts to determine which of these players will maintain their current performance levels — and who might experience a slowdown as the season closes.
Cal Raleigh is aiming for 61 homers. Will he exceed or fall short of that number?
David Schoenfield »
Jeff Passan: Under 61, but not by a significant margin. The Seattle Mariners have 31 games left. Raleigh has had two separate 31-game intervals this season during which he hit at least a dozen home runs — the amount needed to reach 61 — so it is achievable. Now that he has surpassed Salvador Perez’s record for most in a season by a catcher, Raleigh can pursue the Mariners’ franchise record of 56 set by Ken Griffey Jr. in 1997.
David Schoenfield: His momentum has decreased since the All-Star break — which isn’t unexpected, considering he was on a 64-homer trajectory back then. He has had only one day off since the break, and his strikeouts have accumulated in August, including a five-strikeout game and multiple three-strikeout games. Is Raleigh finally feeling the effects of nearly everyday play? In other words: under 61.
Kyle Schwarber and Shohei Ohtani are on course for 55-plus home runs. Who will claim the National League home run title, and by how many?
Jesse Rogers: Schwarber will claim the home run championship, finishing with 56 this season. He has historically produced strong slugging percentages in September, and this year will be no exception. Over his career, he has achieved his second-best slugging percentage (.521) in September, only behind June. Ohtani also performs well late in the season, but this is shaping up to be a remarkably special year for the Philadelphia Phillies designated hitter. He boasts a .577 slugging percentage against left-handed pitchers, indicating a few more homers off lefties in September, which could be crucial in the home run race.
Buster Olney: Schwarber will secure the title, but he will finish with 59. He has figured out how to face left-handers — by standing in the box, absorbing HBP, and hitting effectively — with remarkably balanced splits, holding a .946 OPS against right-handers and .943 against lefties. As powerful as he has been this season, he is just beginning to heat up, boasting 20 homers in his last 45 games.
Aaron Judge tops the majors with 7.3 WAR. What will his concluding total be?
New York Yankees when he’s cleared to take the field, which would limit his WAR capacity. Let’s estimate it at 8.7 as the final figure.
Bradford Doolittle: The 7.3 number reflects Fangraphs’ calculation of WAR, and their projected pace tool has him finishing at 9.1. To achieve that, he must stay off the IL, and that estimation does not account for the likelihood that he may need to DH more often than not. This will diminish his positional value and the opportunity to contribute to his fielding statistics. He has also appeared somewhat rusty since returning from his last IL stint. Hence, taking all of this into account, I will say Fangraphs’ forecast is mildly optimistic, and I’ll land on 8.9 for the final figure … which is quite commendable.
Nick Kurtz has an OPS of 1.026. Will he finish the season as one of the few rookies with an OPS exceeding 1.000?
Doolittle: This could go either way. Of 497 players with at least 75 plate appearances, Kurtz is one of just five boasting an OPS above 1.000. It’s a positive sign that his numbers aren’t inflated by his home run count; he can hit. If you remove homers from the records of all players, the Athletics’ first baseman maintains a top-25 OPS.
Another encouraging indicator is that he has not demonstrated a home-road performance split. He consistently hits well everywhere he plays except … when facing a lefty. Mastering southpaws is the final challenge for Kurtz. Of the Athletics’ 11 upcoming opponents (including Boston and Garrett Crochet twice), all are ranked in the top half regarding batters faced by left-handed starters. I predict Kurtz’s Rookie of the Year campaign won’t showcase an OPS over 1.000.
Schoenfield: Rare is an understatement. The only qualifying rookies since World War II with a 1.000 OPS were Albert Pujols and Aaron Judge. Kurtz should achieve the 502 plate appearances required to qualify and, indeed, he’ll conclude with a 1.000 OPS. How? His OBP is over .500 (!) in the second half, as his walk rate continues to rise while pitchers increasingly approach him with caution. Kurtz is not merely set to be one of the premier hitters in the league — he already is.
Tarik Skubal is on track for 247 strikeouts. Will he achieve this milestone?
MLB Rank: Updated top 50 »
Passan: Yes. Skubal has recorded 200 strikeouts over 25 starts. He has at least six starts left — potentially seven if the schedule aligns favorably — and he has historically performed better as the season progresses. His strikeout rate in September is the second highest of any month, and as he aims to become the first back-to-back American League Cy Young winner since Pedro Martinez in 1999-2000, ending the season strongly will be crucial.
Rogers: Yes — but just. There’s a scenario where the Detroit Tigers secure their division early enough that they limit Skubal’s innings slightly over his final appearances, right? On the other hand, he’s likely to have a few outings where he exceeds his average of eight strikeouts per start. This could push him to the 250 mark by month’s end. Moreover, the Tigers will likely receive a first-round bye in the playoffs — allowing Skubal to unleash his full potential in September, knowing he’ll have a week off before starting Game 1 of the division round.
Paul Skenes leads the majors with a 2.07 ERA. Will his final ERA be higher or lower?
Olney: I will assert lower because it only makes logical sense for the Pittsburgh Pirates to provide him with as much rest as possible for the remainder of the season. Pittsburgh isn’t contending for anything, but Skenes has a chance to win the National League Cy Young Award — and you would think the Pirates will make every effort to help him achieve that. He’ll likely finish the season with around 180 innings.
Castillo: A bit over for two reasons: 2.07 is an exceptionally low figure, and Skenes has not been as precise recently. The right-hander has allowed 10 runs in five August starts, translating to a 3.21 ERA over 28 innings — with his latest start on Sunday being his strongest of the month, going seven innings with three hits allowed. As Buster noted, the Pirates will probably limit his workload down the stretch, so a considerable increase is unlikely.
Freddy Peralta has 15 wins. Will he be the first 20-game winner since 2023?
David Schoenfield »
Doolittle: With Peralta failing to attain win No. 16 on Saturday, he’s facing a challenging path. The Milwaukee Brewers might secure the top seed relatively early, which means they may not push Peralta during the final week. However, let’s assume he gets six more starts. He is winning at a rate of .556 per start, which would result in 3.3 over six starts. Not enough! Peralta must win five of his last six starts, or all five if he gets only five more opportunities. I predict he will finish with 19 wins. The 20-game winner drought will persist.
Schoenfield: I will say yes. Even though we often lament the decreasing number of 20-game winners, there was one in 2023, one in 2022, one in 2021, two in 2019, two in 2018, three in 2016, two in 2015, and three in 2014. Yes, it’s becoming less common, but we typically see at least one. So let’s hope Peralta is that one.
